Hockeybik

On 8/27/2020 at 9:28 AM, Brer said:

A better holiday would be in my country helping my country’s economy with no quarantines and invariably cheaper.

Dream on Thailand.

This goes for almost every country I would think. Stay home, see the places you've never been before. Our home is Thailand. We can't leave and come back in any practical scenario so our travel will be within Thailand. 

41 minutes ago, skorp13 said:

Long stay tourists and ex-pats looking to get back to their businesses or families will do the quarantine, no one else will. Real international tourism will not return until the quarantine is abolished no one else will even think about returning. Whether or not is it actually necessary is another topic but i think the writing is on the wall

If the goal must be "zero new cases" then the long stay folks must be the target not the pleasure tourist.

2 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

These guys just can’t miss an opportunity for their moment in the media. 

 

When these people stop with the mentality that ‘tourists’ are poisonous and Thailand is doing tourists a favour by allowing them in to spend the money they just have to get rid of things may start to improve for the Thai tourist sector. 

 

There has to be more intelligent measures:

- Pre flight Covid-19 tests

- Arrival Covid-19 tests

- Testing of those working in the Tourist areas

- Track and Trace (of all incomers / and all in country)

- Ensure the R Number remains below 1 

- Emphasis on ’serious cases’ and ‘deaths’ rather than whole numbers of Covid-19 cases

 

 

Yeah, aiming for zero cases ever is pretty stupid.

9 hours ago, SteveK said:

He raised the issue of dual-pricing, portraying it as a scam against international visitors at a time when tourism is already decimated and the country is trying to figure out how to get the industry going again. You can be sure that someone's not particularly pleased with hm.

They should love him for calling out the 2-price thing. The only tourists they have to draw from now are domestic and farang living here. Many of us don't do the touristy stuff because of the double pricing. The powers that be should put the pressure on their double price destinations to eliminate the practice to draw more expats. But then that would make sense.

2 hours ago, yellowboat said:

The government helps most when it gets out of the way.  The government actually makes matters worse in Thailand. 

Any government anywhere makes matters worse.

Anyone have any experience with driving to another province to stay for a few days?

4 hours ago, kotsak said:

Double price unless there is a subsidy.

You mean the taxpayer pays for half the cost of my seat on the plane. That is IF I choose to fly. If I do not, my money goes to pay for other people's seats. Maybe China will pay.

On 4/16/2020 at 2:33 PM, Chassa said:

I'm still waiting for the social media to go 'viral' about deaths and bad cases of this virus.

Also, so far no increase in funerals in my area. Thai funerals are not exactly quiet!

Bam! Thank you! And sick people being turned away from hospitals won't be easily hidden either. 

3 hours ago, DrTuner said:

 

Number of people turned away from hospitals because they are full?

 

Yeah, didn't think so.

Where are the full hospitals? 

Where are the refer trucks full of dead bodies?... 

Yeah, I didn't think so...

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

Realist thank you. 26 new cases in a population of 70,000,000 with very little testing and one of the most virulent virus humanity has ever encountered.

Today's number is 2,672 total reported cases and 1,593 recovered, add to that the dead, 46 and that leaves 1,033 still sick and presumably sick enough to go to the hospital. I will agree that number is low. There are no doubt many sick at home and never went to be tested. How low do you think it is? How many people are out there with symptoms, fever, cough, etc. are out there? Or do you think the hospitals are not reporting COVID-19 cases? Have you heard of hospitals overrun with patients?

18 minutes ago, XB12X said:

There's no point asking that, he hasn't got a clue.

That's why I asked...and no evidence the numbers are significantly higher either.

19 hours ago, dinsdale said:

 The drop in numbers is a smoke screen.

OK, let's say they are under reporting... what do you think the numbers really are? 

19 hours ago, Guderian said:

Based on even the steady +/- 100 new cases per day figure, there wasn't much justification for the latest threats to ramp up the curfew and various other measures, if we get a few days at the 50 level then there'll be even less. I'm guessing the authorities are in headless chicken mode, as they are in a number of countries, and simply want to be seen to be doing something, anything. As somebody said recently in the UK government, they're basically damned whatever they do. If they turn the screws further on self-isolation then they'll be accused of going overboard if it works and numbers start to decline, while they'll also be accused of not doing enough if it doesn't work and numbers continue to increase. Who'd want to be a politician at the moment?

One possible reason is that the mass exodus from Bangkok to up-country took place about 2 weeks ago so the numbers could tick up significantly when those cases incubate, maybe? That will be seen in the next few days of numbers. The more likely reason is as you say "gotta do something". 

7 hours ago, joecoolfrog said:

In relation to the measures in place currently and their future effectiveness, I think these low figures are actually bad news.

If you look at the UK or the US , it is stressed that the reported figures are just the tip of the iceberg.

People need to be convinced how serious the problem is , scared if you will , low official figures will just breed complacency and non compliance.

 

The test numbers in Thailand are low but people would be sick even if the cause of their sickness was unknown. So if there are 26 deaths and 1,800 +/- active cases being reported (total cases minus recovered) how many more are there? I'm thinking that if there were maybe 10x more or 20x more, maybe that would be unnoticed locally and blend into "normal" numbers nationally but if it were 100's of times more, that news would be leaking out. Everyone that is really sick is not staying home and dying  to be planted out in the rice paddy. Deaths get reported. Seriously ill people go somewhere, to the clinic, to the hospital and anecdotally we are not hearing that. Where is the evidence of overcrowded hospitals and morgues overflowing? --- I should add that low test numbers miss those who have no symptoms or are not severe enough to go to the hospital and then don't get worse and they recover. Those numbers are not being captured in any country. People generally are not getting tested unless they have reason to be.

9 hours ago, JCP108 said:

Yes. That's what I think. I think people are not being tested. So, many people are likely dying with the death being attributed to other causes. That's my assumption based on so few tests being done and the unbelievably low number of infected people reported so far. I would very, very, very much like to see the death statistics (for all attributed causes) for Thailand by month for the last four months to compare to the prior year. Anyone know where that can be found?

Good point, I couldn't find any up to date stats on overall deaths in Thailand but those numbers will become available. Maybe someone with better search skills than mine can find them. The US just crossed over 10k deaths attributed to corona virus with over 300,000 infected. Italy is 16,000 with 132,000, Spain 13,000 dead with 136,000 infected. Each have varying testing ratios. To see the numbers you are suggesting, 5,000-10,000 dead in Thailand, we would be seeing beds in the streets, don't you think? My original point was that the numbers are no doubt low but they can't be that low. If as you suggest they are several hundred times higher, the number of cases severe enough to be hospitalized would also be several hundred times higher and that would be difficult to hide. 10x higher, 20x maybe, but 300x higher, I kind of doubt it. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

6 hours ago, JCP108 said:

I'm sorry but I miswrote my first post. I meant 5-10k deaths. So, we prob don't fully agree. 

Do you think that the hospitals are not reporting deaths as corona virus? Why would they do that? People looking at the numbers in Italy, Spain, the US and other countries think officials are OVER reporting covid deaths and calling anyone who dies with the virus even if the main cause was cancer, heart, or other as a corona virus death. So you think Thai hospitals are doing just the opposite, not reporting deaths as covid caused? Why? Deaths are much harder to hide than illnesses. 

1 minute ago, JCP108 said:

A lot. Spread 5-10k cases out over 69 provinces and then over 8 weeks. 

I agree, and I might even agree the actual number of infected people could be 10x or maybe 15x higher, heck even go 20x higher that is still 0.06% of 65,000,000. Your 5-10k number is only a little higher than the 2,000+ being reported and almost 800 of them have recovered! Maybe considering a very high factor of unknown infections, it may not be all that bad. Certainly this isn't New York City or Milano.

I had to go to CW on 16 March for a 90 day and it was nose to tail and SRO in every department. Then I had go to Samut Prakan the next day on other business and it was the same thing. I'm glad they are now beginning to practice a little distancing but there is still no excuse for not simply extending all visas and reports until after this emergency is over.

34 minutes ago, teddybeer said:

100+ new every day, not so few, better safe than underestimate repeating mistakes of others. 

It isn't doubling every 2-3 days, be thankful for that.

People really don't appear to be taking this social distancing thing all that seriously. I went on a short bicycle ride around Bearing, Samrong, Lasalle and the markets seemed pretty normal. Close to 100% wearing masks but otherwise, close contact and crowded markets. Stores and restaurants were closed with one or two exceptions. 

11 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Good news???

 

I think 143 new cases is the highest single day increase since this started, and if not THE highest, it's right up there among the highest.

 

 

It's good news only that it is not doubling every day. That will be a problem.