Thailand exports beat forecasts as imports surge

Thailand's exports rose 21.6% in July from a year earlier, beating market expectations, while imports climbed even faster and pushed the country's trade deficit to a record $34.35 billion over the first seven months of 2026.

The Ministry of Commerce reported on Thursday 27August 2026, that July exports exceeded the 17.75% increase forecast in a Reuters poll. The result followed export growth of 20.8% in the previous month.

Imports rose 36.7% year-on-year in July, producing a monthly trade deficit of $3.61 billion. Import growth has outstripped export growth for most of the year.

Strong shipments to the US and China

Exports to the United States, Thailand's largest market, increased 45.3% in July from a year earlier, the ministry said. Shipments to China rose by 15.2%.

Over the first seven months of 2026, exports were up 18.2% year-on-year. Outbound shipments had risen 12.9% across all of last year.

The Commerce Ministry now expects exports to grow by more than 11% this year, lifting its earlier forecast of 8%. It cited growing demand for goods linked to technology and artificial intelligence.

US transshipment concerns

The gap between imports and exports has strengthened Washington's argument that Thailand may be used to send goods to the United States from third countries, mainly China, through transshipment.

That issue could matter for foreign companies using Thailand as a manufacturing, sourcing or logistics base, especially those supplying the US market. The ministry's figures do not indicate any immediate change to visa, travel or residency rules for foreigners.

Separately, Thailand's manufacturing production index rose 0.46% in July from a year earlier, the Ministry of Industry said. That was stronger than the 1.0% year-on-year decline forecast in the Reuters poll.

The July reading followed a revised 2.4% fall in the previous month. The ministry expects factory output to rise 0.25% this year, revising down its earlier forecast of growth between 1.0% and 2.0%.

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28 August 2026