Analysts forecast Thai economic growth of 4% in 2018

[webfact]

Analysts forecast Thai economic growth of 4% in 2018

 

BANGKOK, 23 January 2018 (NNT) – The Thai economy this year is expected to expand 4 percent on the back of the continued growth momentum in the export and tourism sectors as well as the acceleration of public investment. 

Mr Kobsidthi Silpachai, Head of Capital Markets Research at Kasikorn Bank, stated that global economic growth of 3.6 percent is projected this year, which would be conducive to further growth of Thai exports. Given this and other positive factors, including lively tourism and the speedy disbursement of public funds into infrastructure projects and the Eastern Economic Corridor, investor confidence is expected to improve, allowing the Thai economy to grow 4 percent this year. 

However, Mr Kobsidthi pointed out that investors remain concerned by uncertainty in the country’s election roadmap. Other risk factors include the appreciation of the Thai currency, which is expected to trade between 32 and 33 baht against the US dollar in the first quarter, lower-than-expected inflation and an upswing in oil prices. 

Similarly, Mr Pisit Puapan, Director of the Macroeconomic Analysis Division, Fiscal Policy Office, considered the export and tourism industries to be the key drivers of the Thai economy this year, allowing overall growth to be comparable to that of last year. Nonetheless, he advised that close attention be paid to a possible slowdown in the Chinese economy as well as fluctuations in the yuan’s value.

 

-- nnt 2018-01-24

 

[Jimbo2014]

At the beginning of any journey there is hope

(Gerard Depardieu - 1492: Conquest of Paradise)

... just sayin' (like I said last year and the year before)

 

[peperobi]

Strange, every year 4, 5, 6 and more % growing, what I see is the peoples that do not have work and money, I like just to ask those economists who taking advantage from that growing...(I really don't believe!)

[JAG]

6 minutes ago, peperobi said:

Strange, every year 4, 5, 6 and more % growing, what I see is the peoples that do not have work and money, I like just to ask those economists who taking advantage from that growing...(I really don't believe!)

Why, the people who commission the surveys I should imagine...

Edited January 24, 2018 by JAG

[johnny49r]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

Given this and other positive factors, including lively tourism

Anybody seen any lively tourists? The end of 2017 and (so far) this year is the quietest 'high season' in recent years. This guy is either drinking the cool aid or is another out of touch exec.

[Srikcir]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

The Thai economy this year is expected to expand 4 percent

Matches the prediction last year November by The Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting of the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce Director Thanawat Polvichai and mid-range of 3.3% to 4.3% prediction made by Second Vice President of the NLA Peerasak Porjit last June. 

 

So pending risks of political (delayed elections), monetary (continued appreciation) and economic (foreign sanctions) volatility, 4% is reasonable. The immediate challenge is continued decreasing world prices for agricultural prices and potential abuse of existing free trade agreements.

 

I think ultimately economic growth this year will depend largely on more long-term foreign government investment and expansion of foreign-owned enterprises in Thailand. Whether that translates into immediate greater wealth for Thais in general is questionable given the only nominal minimum daily wage.

 

[andersonat]

I wish that I could get a 4% interest-rate on my Thai savings-account.

[Cadbury]

The value of the baht is manipulated underground to preserve the wealth of funds held in offshore banks by the elite and those in high ranking office. Even if exports have to suffer as the Kasikorn Research is predicting.