Consumer confidence index falls first time in 7 months

By Thai PBS

 

 

Consumer confidence index (CCI) in February fell for the first time in seven months as concern has risen over political instability.

 

According to Dr Thanawat Pholvichai, director of the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce’s Center for Economic and Business Forecasting, CCI in February dropped to 79.3 from 80.0 in January this year.

 

The February CCI was the lowest in seven months since August last year. He attributed the decline in CCI to growing concern of political instability, and farm prices.

 

Full story: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/consumer-confidence-index-falls-first-time-7-months/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2018-03-08

Consumer confidence index (CCI) in February fell for the first time in seven months as concern has risen over political instability.

I find this hard to believe. After four years of the top honcho's Friday night "Returning Happiness to the People" spiel along with political stability as a platform, one can only assume this has been less than successful! 

Oh, oh - here it comes: 'We cannot return Thailand to full politics and democracy yet as the situation is still far from stable', cries the great dinosaur. I can see it coming - that, and a thousand other feeble excuses!

17 hours ago, webfact said:

Consumer confidence index (CCI) in February fell for the first time in seven months as concern has risen over political junta instability.

 

17 hours ago, webfact said:

Consumer confidence index falls first time in 7 months

Is it a co-incidence that the Balance of Trade has turned negative for the previous two recorded months. Perhaps the prediction by Kasikorn Research that export growth might drop by half in 2018 (against 2017) could come true.

Could that also be put down to political instability? Or the high baht?

Edited March 9, 20188 yr by Cadbury

Just a thought - there are many long-term farangs living in Thailand who are required to show a minimum of 65K per month for visa purposes.  Much of this is spent on wives/extended family/education/farming/entertainment/consumer products.  Each time the baht strengthens against my own foreign currency, I am forced to make cutbacks.  Perhaps this might be impacting on confidence?

Whatever it all means.i have been thieved 3 times in the past 4 months. Security guards present at 2 locations.

So that tells me that things are not very good for the average person on the street.even in high season.

Economic down turns have this effect . 

 

5 hours ago, Cadbury said:

Could that also be put down to political instability? Or the high baht?

Not according to the Bank of Thailand.

"Sitting on a hefty cushion of foreign-exchange reserves, Thailand's central bank is unafraid (sic) of capital outflows as it grapples with the challenge of currency appreciation."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-07/capital-outflows-don-t-scare-thailand-as-it-wrestles-with-baht   \

How tenuous that cushion might be is another matter.

I believe that Thailand is at a tipping point of potentially higher inflation, higher unemployment and lower domestic consumption. Combine those elements with limited foreign investment (yes, China and Japan are making major investments but they dictate the conditions), virtually nonexistent domestic investment if government investment (albeit funded largely from foreign loans from China and Japan) is excluded, continued ailing agricultural prices and greater ASEAN competition, that reserve could quickly dissipate.