Scotland's Sturgeon warns of catastrophic 'no deal' Brexit

[aright]

I have no vested interest either way in Scotland's independence ambitions but do believe they should get it if the majority want it. It has to be said however that 4 years on from their last, lost referendum they seem to be no closer to independence. After loosing 13% of their Westminster vote  last year and over 30% of their MP's , they are probably not heading in quite the direction they would like everyone to believe.

I emphasize for a holiday and for the quality of its people there is no finer place on the planet.

[RuamRudy]

3 hours ago, Cherjam said:

. What a shot in the arm for the Indies and by that I don't mean the SNP, I state this as it appears that in England the cecils seem to confuse SNP with MSP, there are many Scots that support Independence that are not SNP

This seems to confuse so many - I remember years ago, an SNP slogan of 'Vote for us and we will resign', although the way David Cameron bailed out when he lost Brexit possibly makes that tagline less appealing nowadays.

 

But whoever is in charge on day 1 of an independent Scotland, the future of the country is a blank canvas yet to be written.

[RuamRudy]

12 hours ago, nontabury said:

 

Good question. And this is the lady who will deal with it.

 

 

[evadgib]

'Scottish' oil is surely a British asset in much the same manner that Gallilao is. Does SNP, EU seriously expect us to  roll over?

[poanoi]

4 minutes ago, evadgib said:

'Scottish' oil is surely a British asset in much the same manner that Gallilao is. Does SNP, EU seriously expect us to  roll over?

its scottish territory, therefore scottish asset,

lest you try to pull a chinese claim on territory

[The Renegade]

1 hour ago, RuamRudy said:

But whoever is in charge on day 1 of an independent Scotland, the future of the country is a blank canvas yet to be written.

Best take that £1 crystal ball back to poundland.  There must have been a fire sale of them.

 

Grouse yesterday told us all he will be applying for a Scottish Passport.

 

Quote

Why have the polls not shown a shift towards Scottish independence?

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/why-have-polls-not-shown-shift-towards-scottish-in/

 

Whilst the SNP's mantra is leave the UK and immediately join the EU Scotland will never vote for Independence.

 

You cannot be Independent and a member of the EU.

[RuamRudy]

5 minutes ago, The Renegade said:

Best take that £1 crystal ball back to poundland.  There must have been a fire sale of them.

 

Grouse yesterday told us all he will be applying for a Scottish Passport.

 

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/27/why-have-polls-not-shown-shift-towards-scottish-in/

 

Whilst the SNP's mantra is leave the UK and immediately join the EU Scotland will never vote for Independence.

 

You cannot be Independent and a member of the EU.

The EU is a secondary issue - the first step is to regain control of our country. Whatever happens after that is the will of the Scottish people. 

[RuamRudy]

15 minutes ago, evadgib said:

'Scottish' oil is surely a British asset in much the same manner that Gallilao is. Does SNP, EU seriously expect us to  roll over?

The days of gunboat diplomacy were over long before the UK lost its capability to be a force worth reckoning with. 

[evadgib]

7 minutes ago, poanoi said:

its scottish territory, therefore scottish asset,

lest you try to pull a chinese claim on territory

Its British the noo & will likely be empty before squabbling becomes necessary.

[vogie]

2 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

The EU is a secondary issue - the first step is to regain control of our country. Whatever happens after that is the will of the Scottish people. 

But the will of the Scots is to remain within the UK, there is no indication that anything has changed to alter Scottish opinion.

[evadgib]

4 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

The days of gunboat diplomacy were over long before the UK lost its capability to be a force worth reckoning with. 

...and the scottish % of Gallilao.....?

[RuamRudy]

3 hours ago, aright said:

I have no vested interest either way in Scotland's independence ambitions but do believe they should get it if the majority want it. It has to be said however that 4 years on from their last, lost referendum they seem to be no closer to independence. After loosing 13% of their Westminster vote  last year and over 30% of their MP's , they are probably not heading in quite the direction they would like everyone to believe.

I emphasize for a holiday and for the quality of its people there is no finer place on the planet.

The situation in 2017 was pretty untenable and not particularly desirable from anyone's perspective - 56 of 59 MPs would be impossible for any party to sustain, and it stifles debate and initiative. But a party which, after 10 years in power, can still win the majority of seats, must still hold a lot of clout. 

 

There are so many dynamics at play though. It appears that we have, thankfully, reached peak Tory, with them consistently failing to poll above the low to mid 20s - although they are attracting the ultra British nationalists away from Labour. 

 

Labour, however, still retains a significant influence in Scotland, but their polling has been as abysmal as in the rest of the country, and there seems to be a switch across from many who have lost faith in Corbyn but are not blind to the Union Jack jingoism of the BritNats.  

 

So the battle is for the soft No voters, those who are not dyed in the woll unionists, but were not convinced of the practicalities last time round. Corbyn and his man up north, Richard Leonard, are helping immensely through a mixture of incompetence and ineptitude. 

 

But as stated by Cherjam, independence supporters are not guaranteed to be SNP supporters. Looking solely at the latter will not capture all of the former.

[RuamRudy]

5 minutes ago, vogie said:

But the will of the Scots is to remain within the UK, there is no indication that anything has changed to alter Scottish opinion.

I think you are a bit out of touch with what is happening up north. 

 

Depending on how you define Scots, the situation is very nuanced. A slim majority of those born in Scotland voted to leave the union in 2014. The majority of those born outside Scotland but eligible to vote in the referendum voted by a significant margin to stay in the UK. 

 

Since then, I am of the opinion that the SNP has continued to curry favour with the electorate in general; English/Welsh/NI born Unionst voters will probably not have changed their stance, but EU nationals living in Scotland will be much more likely to vote for independence.

[RuamRudy]

7 minutes ago, evadgib said:

...and the scottish % of Gallilao.....?

At the moment, there is no Scottish percentage; there is a British percentage. EU relations are a reserved matter so we have to rely upon our Westminster leaders to negotiate to the best for the UK in all aspects of EU withdrawal. Upon dissolution of the UK, the separation will hopefully be managed more skillfully and with less rancour.

[vogie]

5 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

I think you are a bit out of touch with what is happening up north. 

 

Depending on how you define Scots, the situation is very nuanced. A slim majority of those born in Scotland voted to leave the union in 2014. The majority of those born outside Scotland but eligible to vote in the referendum voted by a significant margin to stay in the UK. 

 

Since then, I am of the opinion that the SNP has continued to curry favour with the electorate in general; English/Welsh/NI born Unionst voters will probably not have changed their stance, but EU nationals living in Scotland will be much more likely to vote for independence.

I may be out of touch, so maybe you have evidence to update my antiquated beliefs.

This is from March this year, it is the most recent poll I could find, it is from Mori.

 

"However, independence is still not the preferred option of a majority of Scots. Among those who would be likely to vote in an immediate referendum, 46% say they would support independence, while 50% say they would back Scotland remaining in the UK and four per cent say they are undecided."

[RuamRudy]

20 minutes ago, vogie said:

I may be out of touch, so maybe you have evidence to update my antiquated beliefs.

This is from March this year, it is the most recent poll I could find, it is from Mori.

 

"However, independence is still not the preferred option of a majority of Scots. Among those who would be likely to vote in an immediate referendum, 46% say they would support independence, while 50% say they would back Scotland remaining in the UK and four per cent say they are undecided."

Is there an independence campaign ongoing? In 2013, support for independence was mid 20-ish percent. The campaign for indyref1 raised that to 45%, and it has remained there ever since, give or take a couple of points. 

 

Now, with all that is happening - a very unpopular Brexit being forced upon us; the cack-handed management of Brexit; ongoing unnecessary austerity; Labour as divided as the Tories on fundamental issues, imagine the gains that could be made by a campaign for indyref2.

 

All the unionist cards have been played already - and proven to be mostly bluff and lies; at the same time, much of the uncertainty of the soft Nos about independence have been addressed. People are realising that the future of the UK is going to be a painful - if pain to be endured, why not make it pain of our own making?

 

I have never been more optimistic - independence is ours for the taking. 

[vogie]

2 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Is there an independence campaign ongoing? In 2013, support for independence was mid 20-ish percent. The campaign for indyref1 raised that to 45%, and it has remained there ever since, give or take a couple of points. 

 

Now, with all that is happening - a very unpopular Brexit being forced upon us; the cack-handed management of Brexit; ongoing unnecessary austerity; Labour as divided as the Tories on fundamental issues, imagine the gains that could be made by a campaign for indyref2.

 

All the unionist cards have been played already - and proven to be mostly bluff and lies; at the same time, much of the uncertainty of the soft Nos about independence have been addressed. People are realising that the future of the UK is going to be a painful - if pain to be endured, why not make it pain of our own making?

 

I have never been more optimistic - independence is ours for the taking. 

Very nice words RR, but can you show some evidence that the majority of Scots want indy. As a fervent nationalist you are going to say this, but just to re-iterate, you appear to be in the minority of your fellow countrymen.

 

 

[RuamRudy]

11 minutes ago, vogie said:

Very nice words RR, but can you show some evidence that the majority of Scots want indy. As a fervent nationalist you are going to say this, but just to re-iterate, you appear to be in the minority of your fellow countrymen.

 

 

Simply going by the democratic mandate that the electorate handed the Scottish government in 2015 and again in 2017 in Westminster, and majority backed in Holyrood, the SG has the authority to call for another referendum. That is enough to kick the process off - the winning over of those undecideds will commence then.

[evadgib]

With your permission Mr Speaker, I would like to make a statement on the operation of the Sewel Convention and its application to the European Union (Withdrawal) Bill in relation to Scotland. Mr Speaker, these are serious times and serious issues. I have come to the House today with respect and ready for constructive debate, and I hope that is the spirit of all sides.

Lord Sewel set out a commitment in 1998 that there should be a parliamentary convention to recognise that where the UK Parliament legislated in a devolved area it would and I quote ‘not normally legislate without the consent of the Scottish Parliament’. Throughout the passage of this Bill, the Government has demonstrated its commitment to the Sewel Convention and the principles that underpin our constitution. We have followed the spirit and letter of the devolution settlement at every stage.

The EU (Withdrawal) Bill is about ensuring that the whole of the United Kingdom has a functioning statute book on Exit Day. It is about providing legal certainty to businesses and individuals up and down the country.

More.....

 

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/statement-on-the-sewel-convention

Edited June 15, 2018 by evadgib

[vogie]

38 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

Simply going by the democratic mandate that the electorate handed the Scottish government in 2015 and again in 2017 in Westminster, and majority backed in Holyrood, the SG has the authority to call for another referendum. That is enough to kick the process off - the winning over of those undecideds will commence then.

You know better than me that Nicola Sturgeon will not ask for another referendum unless she is certain of winning, a loss would be the end of NS and possibly the SNP. The last election she lost a third of the SNP seats.

What you want to happen and what you really believe will happen are two different things.

 

[dick dasterdly]

5 hours ago, aright said:

I have no vested interest either way in Scotland's independence ambitions but do believe they should get it if the majority want it. It has to be said however that 4 years on from their last, lost referendum they seem to be no closer to independence. After loosing 13% of their Westminster vote  last year and over 30% of their MP's , they are probably not heading in quite the direction they would like everyone to believe.

I emphasize for a holiday and for the quality of its people there is no finer place on the planet.

"I have no vested interest either way in Scotland's independence ambitions but do believe they should get it if the majority want it."

 

I agree.  It would be unfortunate in many ways, but if that's the desire of the majority of Scots in a independence referendum - then it should be respected.

 

[RuamRudy]

8 minutes ago, vogie said:

You know better than me that Nicola Sturgeon will not ask for another referendum unless she is certain of winning, a loss would be the end of NS and possibly the SNP. The last election she lost a third of the SNP seats.

What you want to happen and what you really believe will happen are two different things.

 

I agree - but how she reads the tea leaves is not necessarily the same method that you or I might choose. But waiting for 3 consecutive polls showing 60% plus approval is a sure fire way to snuff out any possibility of independence.

 

During indyref1 I was hopeful but never really confident, and in the dying days of the campaign I had a gnawing feeling that it was going to be lost; now I see so many indicators that suggest differently. I want her to strike now; the mood of the country and the circumstances around us have never been more favourable. 

 

 

[RuamRudy]

1 minute ago, dick dasterdly said:

 

I agree.  It would be unfortunate in many ways, but if that's the desire of the majority of Scots in a independence referendum - then it should be respected.

 

I don't see it as unfortunate for any party - in fact, I think it would be beneficial for rUK as well as for Scotland. I think it would allow us to develop a mature, cooperative relationship that is mutually respectful, but allows our respective countries to be more reflective of the wishes of the electorate. 

[upu2]

Sounds very fishy to me

[RuamRudy]

Latest polling from the Sun:

Brexit with a deal will push support for Scottish independence to 50%;

Brexit with no deal will see independence at 52%.

 

 

[7by7]

On ‎6‎/‎15‎/‎2018 at 4:14 AM, RuamRudy said:

Simply going by the democratic mandate that the electorate handed the Scottish government in 2015 and again in 2017 in Westminster, and majority backed in Holyrood, the SG has the authority to call for another referendum. That is enough to kick the process off - the winning over of those undecideds will commence then.

 It may have escaped your attention, but the SNP lost 21 seats in the 2017 general election.

 

In the 2016 Scottish Parliament elections the SNP lost 6 seats.

 

In both elections their overall share of the vote fell.

 

Can you explain how losing seats and a falling share of the vote is a democratic mandate from the Scottish people?

[RuamRudy]

On ‎07‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 12:32 PM, 7by7 said:

 It may have escaped your attention, but the SNP lost 21 seats in the 2017 general election.

 

In the 2016 Scottish Parliament elections the SNP lost 6 seats.

 

In both elections their overall share of the vote fell.

 

Can you explain how losing seats and a falling share of the vote is a democratic mandate from the Scottish people?

Simple - in the last Holyrood election, the number of MSPs returned who support independence exceeded those who favoured the union. That is a majority in anyone's book.

Similarly, in the 2017 GE, the SNP emerged depleted, but still with more MPs than all the other parties combined - again, a majority in favour of independence. In our parliamentary democracy, those are the stats that count.

 

But the mandates I was referring to are specifically (1) the return of the pro-independence majority in 2016, and (2) the bill, passed by the Scottish parliament empowering it to seek a second independence referendum in the event of Scotland being pulled from Europe against its wishes.

 

So, when I said mandate, I was not referring to some emotional sense of justice, but the legal power that the Scottish parliament holds.

 

 

 

 

[RuamRudy]

According to a YouGov/Future of England survey, 49% of English Tory voters do not think that Scottish MPs should be allowed to sit in the UK cabinet if they are in the party in power. Even more worrying, 24% of Scottish Tory voters agree with them.

 

The overall numbers (i.e. all respondents, not only Tories) are also interesting:

 

Q: To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Scottish MPs should be prevented from becoming ministers in the UK government.

 

Strongly agree - 17%

Tend to agree - 16%

Neither agree nor disagree - 23%

 

So fewer than half of those polled disagreed with the statement.

 

If the numbers are broken down to according to whether they supported Brexit, only 20% of Brexiteers felt that Scottish MPs should be allowed to become UK ministers with 8% Don't Know.

 

Link to full survey

 

Edited October 9, 2018 by RuamRudy

[7by7]

On 10/9/2018 at 1:17 PM, RuamRudy said:

Simple - in the last Holyrood election, the number of MSPs returned who support independence exceeded those who favoured the union. That is a majority in anyone's book.

Similarly, in the 2017 GE, the SNP emerged depleted, but still with more MPs than all the other parties combined - again, a majority in favour of independence. In our parliamentary democracy, those are the stats that count.

 

But the mandates I was referring to are specifically (1) the return of the pro-independence majority in 2016, and (2) the bill, passed by the Scottish parliament empowering it to seek a second independence referendum in the event of Scotland being pulled from Europe against its wishes.

 

So, when I said mandate, I was not referring to some emotional sense of justice, but the legal power that the Scottish parliament holds.

 

 

 

 

 

So are you saying that, in your view, a falling share of the vote in both a General Election and a Scottish Election leading to a reduced number of seats in both Westminster and Holyrood means there is increasing support for the SNP and Scottish independence?

 

Or are you saying that your definigtion of 'mandate' means the Scottish people should be forced to accept independance whether they want it or not?

 

That the SNP managed to get the Scottish Parliament to pass a bill giving it the power to seek another independence referendum does not mean that, should such a referendum be granted, that the result will be any different from pfreviousy.

 

If there is another referendum and the Scottish people do vote yet again to remain part of the UK will you accept the will of themajority, or will you, the SNP and others demand more and more referenda until the Scottish people 'get it right?'

[nontabury]

RuamRudy.

               You mention an opinion poll in the Sun. 

Do you know the exact number of people their pollster contacted?

 And were they all based in Manila.

 

Allthough to be fair,I’m sure she’s got everything planned out.