Scotland's Sturgeon warns of catastrophic 'no deal' Brexit

[RuamRudy]

5 hours ago, nontabury said:

RuamRudy.

               You mention an opinion poll in the Sun. 

Do you know the exact number of people their pollster contacted?

 And were they all based in Manila.

 

Allthough to be fair,I’m sure she’s got everything planned out.

 

 

Hi Nontabury - good to see you back, my friend.

 

I linked to the poll data in post #118. This will open up for you the YouGov pdf file; if I recall correctly, there were around 2100 respondents polled in English constituencies, although I think that the question about Scottish representation within a UK cabinet was limited to around half that number, but still enough to be statistically relevant.

[RuamRudy]

12 hours ago, 7by7 said:

 

So are you saying that, in your view, a falling share of the vote in both a General Election and a Scottish Election leading to a reduced number of seats in both Westminster and Holyrood means there is increasing support for the SNP and Scottish independence?

 

Or are you saying that your definigtion of 'mandate' means the Scottish people should be forced to accept independance whether they want it or not?

 

That the SNP managed to get the Scottish Parliament to pass a bill giving it the power to seek another independence referendum does not mean that, should such a referendum be granted, that the result will be any different from pfreviousy.

 

If there is another referendum and the Scottish people do vote yet again to remain part of the UK will you accept the will of themajority, or will you, the SNP and others demand more and more referenda until the Scottish people 'get it right?'

Did I say increasing support for the SNP? Possibly, I cannot recall (and the recent surge in membership, meaning that they are now the second largest party by membership in the UK, hardly suggests a party facing an impending demise) but in our parliamentary democracy, and especially in Holyrood where the STV system is in use to prevent any party from getting even close to a majority, bums on seats is what counts.

 

As for mandate, it is not my definition at all. The democratically elected goverment has passed a bill giving it the right to demand a second referendum in the event of that Scotland was forced from the EU against its will. That is a mandate. I am not sure what is confusing about it.

 

You are correct, of course, in suggesting that the mandate might not be approved by Westminster. And even if it was to be approved, it is obviously unknown what the result might be, but as nobody can tell the future, that is a pretty weak argument against having a shot at it.

 

If the Scottish electorate was to reject independence a second time, I will be very disheartened and dismayed. But because I believe that continuing as a junior partner in the UK is hugely detrimental to my country, like anyone with a political conviction I would continue to advocate for that which I think would improve our lot.

[RuamRudy]

6 hours ago, nontabury said:

RuamRudy.

               You mention an opinion poll in the Sun. 

Do you know the exact number of people their pollster contacted?

 And were they all based in Manila.

 

Allthough to be fair,I’m sure she’s got everything planned out.

 

 

Apologies, Nontabury, I initially thought you were referring to the YouGov poll where 80% of Brexiteers thought that Scottish MPs in Westminster should be barred from being part of the UK cabinet. I now realise you were referring to the Survation poll. According to the poll data I found on the Survation website, the sample size was 1013 people resident in Scotland.

[Snow Leopard]

A simple question. Why are the Scots and more importantly the SNP so keen to stay in the EU? I read somewhere that about 50% of SNP voters actually voted to leave.  Over 1,000,000 Scots voted to leave as well. Not an insignificant number of people. I think possibly a very high proportion of Uni students voting might have skewed the vote a little. 

 

England 53% - 47%

Wales 52% - 48%

Northern Ireland 44% = 56%

Scotland 38% - 62%

Rounded up.

 

I was pretty much how the vote went but now that it's done its done, either way, it was done as democratic as possible. Let's get on with it. 

 

[RuamRudy]

1 minute ago, Snow Leopard said:

A simple question. Why are the Scots and more importantly the SNP so keen to stay in the EU? I read somewhere that about 50% of SNP voters actually voted to leave.  Over 1,000,000 Scots voted to leave as well. Not an insignificant number of people. I think possibly a very high proportion of Uni students voting might have skewed the vote a little. 

 

England 53% - 47%

Wales 52% - 48%

Northern Ireland 44% = 56%

Scotland 38% - 62%

Rounded up.

 

I was pretty much how the vote went but now that it's done its done, either way, it was done as democratic as possible. Let's get on with it. 

 

The reports I read said that the number was closer to 30% but I am unsure of how that figure was derived so I cannot say which is closer to the truth.

Of those independence supporters who wish to remain in the EU, the reasoning I have seen used most often is that our current status is:

 

Scottish powers - 10%

Westminster powers - 80%

EU powers - 10%

 

For an independent Scotland in the EU, the split would be:

 

Scottish powers - 90%

EU powers - 10%

 

 

[Snow Leopard]

2 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

The reports I read said that the number was closer to 30% but I am unsure of how that figure was derived so I cannot say which is closer to the truth.

Of those independence supporters who wish to remain in the EU, the reasoning I have seen used most often is that our current status is:

 

Scottish powers - 10%

Westminster powers - 80%

EU powers - 10%

 

For an independent Scotland in the EU, the split would be:

 

Scottish powers - 90%

EU powers - 10%

 

 

 

Some info here. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

[RuamRudy]

21 minutes ago, Snow Leopard said:

 

Some info here. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

I saw a survey carried out in the summer that showed support in Scotland for the EU now stood at 74% (apologies, but I cannot recall where I saw it). I don't think that uni students can be fingered as having tipped the balance from Leave.

[nontabury]

3 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

The reports I read said that the number was closer to 30% but I am unsure of how that figure was derived so I cannot say which is closer to the truth.

Of those independence supporters who wish to remain in the EU, the reasoning I have seen used most often is that our current status is:

 

Scottish powers - 10%

Westminster powers - 80%

EU powers - 10%

 

For an independent Scotland in the EU, the split would be:

 

Scottish powers - 90%

EU powers - 10%

 

 

But that’s not how the increasingly Centralized  Bureaucratic E.U. works. And they certainly do not allow the tail to shake the dog.

Edited October 11, 2018 by nontabury

[RuamRudy]

6 minutes ago, nontabury said:

But that’s not how the Bureaucratic E.U. works. And they certainly do not allow the tail to shake the dog.

 

What do you think is the current power split between the EU and the UK?

[Snow Leopard]

2 hours ago, RuamRudy said:

 

What do you think is the current power split between the EU and the UK?

I don't care. Let's just get on with it and see what happens.  

[nontabury]

On 10/11/2018 at 8:35 AM, RuamRudy said:

 

What do you think is the current power split between the EU and the UK?

The E.U Bureaucrats certainly think they have the upper hand, example demanding a large pot of money from the British taxpayers, Unfortunately they are helped by some people on the remain side of British politics.

It will be interesting to see how it all pans out.

Personally I think the E.U have made a big mistake,in trying to tie the U.k into the E.U. 

If and just IF, Brexit is a catastrophe, as predicted by some remainers,the Brexiteers will understandably point the cause at the intransigence of the E.U. And so the bitterness against the E.U will continue, possible at a greater level.

 

[Jip99]

On 10/11/2018 at 8:35 AM, RuamRudy said:

 

What do you think is the current power split between the EU and the UK?

 

 

Soon it will be 0% vs 100%.

[RuamRudy]

13 hours ago, nontabury said:

The E.U Bureaucrats certainly think they have the upper hand, example demanding a large pot of money from the British taxpayers, Unfortunately they are helped by some people on the remain side of British politics.

It will be interesting to see how it all pans out.

Personally I think the E.U have made a big mistake,in trying to tie the U.k into the E.U. 

If and just IF, Brexit is a catastrophe, as predicted by some remainers,the Brexiteers will understandably point the cause at the intransigence of the E.U. And so the bitterness against the E.U will continue, possible at a greater level.

 

If there is an indyref2, and if it is successful, then I would assume that the SNP would lead Scotland to independence. However I am unsure of how cohesive they would be post independence - they seem to contain quite a broad panoply of political views, united in a single goal. I can see the more left leaning wing peel off, leaving the centre right rump behind.

 

Before taking a major step like reapplying to join the EU, I would expect a GE to try to make the political landscape more representative of traditional political attitudes (i.e. not dominated by independence). By this time, the effects of Brexit will be clear and help focus the minds of the electorate.

 

I made a point yesterday on the current mega-Brexit thread that Scottish independence should not be seen as a dismissal of our island's heritage or culture; I sincerely believe that. We can all admire the things our forefathers accomplished, but choosing independence should not, I believe, be seen as some rejection of the past. The reality is that it is a natural state for any country to want take control of its own affairs. Every single argument you have about accountability within the EU can be levied at the UK.