Sri Lankan Man Arrested in Wichit for Illegally Constructing House

[rooster59]

Trump hails growth as one-offs and consumers boost economy

By Lucia Mutikani

 

FILE PHOTO - A shopper walks down an aisle in a newly opened Walmart Neighborhood Market in Chicago in this September 21, 2011 file photo. REUTERS/Jim Young/Files

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in nearly four years in the second quarter as consumers boosted spending and farmers rushed shipments of soybeans to China to beat retaliatory trade tariffs before they took effect in early July.

 

President Donald Trump, who ahead of Friday's release of the gross domestic product report had promoted the notion that second-quarter growth would be robust, declared victory.

 

"We have accomplished an economic turnaround of historic proportions," Trump told reporters. "These numbers are very, very sustainable."

 

Gross domestic product increased at a 4.1 percent annualized rate also as government spending picked up, the Commerce Department said in its snapshot of second-quarter GDP. While that was the strongest performance since the third quarter of 2014, it was not the best since the recession ended in mid-2009.

 

January-March quarter GDP growth was revised up to a 2.2 percent pace from the previously reported 2.0 percent rate to account for updated information and methodology improvements.

 

Compared to the second quarter of 2017, the economy grew 2.8 percent. Output expanded 3.1 percent in the first half of 2018, putting the economy on track to hit the Trump administration's target of 3 percent annual growth. A measure of domestic demand surged at a 4.3 percent rate in the second quarter.

 

Contrary to Trump's assertions, the economy enjoyed periods of robust growth during the Obama administration. GDP growth recorded a 5.1 percent pace in the second quarter of 2014 and the economy experienced four quarters of output above a 4.0 percent rate.

 

Economists also cautioned against putting much weight on the surge in second-quarter growth as one-off factors, including a $1.5 trillion tax cut package, were behind the growth spurt. The soybean boost is likely to reverse in the coming quarters and the fiscal stimulus is seen fading in 2019.

 

"Pop the champagne today, but don't get used to it, growth going forward has a lot of headwinds," said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. "Unless you cut taxes again, there won't be additional tax cut monies to line company and consumer pocket books."

 

The United States slapped 25 percent duties on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods effective July 6, provoking a similar response from Beijing, which targeted soybeans and other agricultural products as well as U.S.-made cars.

 

Trump has also imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, leading to retaliation by the United States' main trade partners, including Canada, the European Union, Mexico and China.

 

Strong growth in the April-June quarter likely keeps the Federal Reserve on course to raise interest rates two more times this year.

The U.S. central bank increased borrowing costs in June for the second time this year and forecast two more rate hikes for 2018.

 

The GDP report showed the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, increased at a 2.0 percent rate in the second quarter. The core PCE price index rose at a 2.2 percent pace in the January-March period.

 

The dollar was little changed versus a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields fell and stocks on Wall Street were down.

 

GROWTH SEEN SLOWING

 

While trade war fears helped to boost output last quarter, import duties are seen undercutting economic growth, with higher prices for goods discouraging consumer spending and businesses shelving investment plans. Economists in a Reuters poll earlier this week predicted that growth will slow notably from here.

 

"The spring quarter could be the high water mark for growth," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania. "That said, there is every reason to expect that growth in the second half of the year will still be in the 3 percent range."

 

Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, increased at a 4.0 percent rate in the second quarter. That was the fastest in 3-1/2 years and followed the January-March period's stall-speed pace of 0.5 percent.

 

Households bought motor vehicles and spent more on health care, utilities, food and accommodation in the last quarter.

 

Consumer spending is also being driven by a robust labor market, which created an average of 215,000 jobs per month in the first half of this year.

 

The front-loading of deliveries of soybeans and other goods boosted exports in the second quarter, which grew at their quickest pace in 4-1/2 years, sharply narrowing the trade deficit. Trade added 1.06 percentage points GDP growth in the second quarter after being neutral in the January-March period.

 

The rush to offload soybeans, however, depleted farm inventories. Inventories declined at a $27.9 billion rate after rising at a $30.3 billion pace in the first quarter. They subtracted 1.0 percentage point from GDP growth.

 

Business spending on equipment slowed and a further moderation is likely, with trade wars casting a pall on the business spending outlook.

 

General Motors Co, Ford Motor Co and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV on Wednesday cut their full-year profit forecasts, citing higher steel and aluminum costs.

 

Harley-Davidson Inc has warned that more expensive steel and aluminum and a 25 percent retaliatory duty imposed by the European Union on shipments from the United States could cost the motorcycle maker $45 million to $55 million this year.

 

Investment in homebuilding fell for a second straight quarter. Government spending grew solidly, boosted by defense outlays.

 

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-07-28

 

[Lungstib]

1 hour ago, rooster59 said:

farmers rushed shipments of soybeans to China to beat retaliatory trade tariffs before they took effect in early July.

 

1 hour ago, rooster59 said:

Trump told reporters. "These numbers are very, very sustainable."

And there you have the wonderful contradiction that is Trump. All this talk of economic growth and GDP doesn't change the fact that wages are dismally low, more people are in poverty than for years and the average wage doesn't supply enough to pay a rent. Not matter how loud you shout success the ordinary citizen is getting left behind.

[Tug]

It’s a caffeine high and will go down country’s buying goods before the trade war begins next one wond be as good would love to be wrong btw

[mcambl61]

4 hours ago, Lungstib said:

 

And there you have the wonderful contradiction that is Trump. All this talk of economic growth and GDP doesn't change the fact that wages are dismally low, more people are in poverty than for years and the average wage doesn't supply enough to pay a rent. Not matter how loud you shout success the ordinary citizen is getting left behind.

wages have been depressed for decades, but are starting to rise, nothing to do with trump but they are rising. Companies are screaming for workers, so wages are going up, it will take another cycle to show. I have several relatives working overtime for the first time in 6 years and they are putting on additional shifts. I have friends in the industrial construction industry and they can not get enough people willing to get their hands dirty. wages in that sector are going up quickly in many locations.

 

there were more people on welfare and out of the workforce under Obama than ever before.

I am not sure where you are getting your information, can you give clear stats and sources so we can see please?

[mcambl61]

38 minutes ago, Tug said:

It’s a caffeine high and will go down country’s buying goods before the trade war begins next one wond be as good would love to be wrong btw

unfortunately there are alot of people hoping it fails just to be able to be spiteful to the current President

[bristolboy]

53 minutes ago, mcambl61 said:

wages have been depressed for decades, but are starting to rise, nothing to do with trump but they are rising. Companies are screaming for workers, so wages are going up, it will take another cycle to show. I have several relatives working overtime for the first time in 6 years and they are putting on additional shifts. I have friends in the industrial construction industry and they can not get enough people willing to get their hands dirty. wages in that sector are going up quickly in many locations.

 

there were more people on welfare and out of the workforce under Obama than ever before.

I am not sure where you are getting your information, can you give clear stats and sources so we can see please?

It's pretty odd that you ask for someone to produce the source of their data while not producing yours. So where's your evidence about wages?

[bristolboy]

1 hour ago, mcambl61 said:

unfortunately there are alot of people hoping it fails just to be able to be spiteful to the current President

Unlike during Obama's tenure when the numbers showed a big improvement in the economy and Republicans overwhelmingly accepted those numbers as being accurate.

[bristolboy]

1 hour ago, mcambl61 said:

wages have been depressed for decades, but are starting to rise, nothing to do with trump but they are rising. Companies are screaming for workers, so wages are going up, it will take another cycle to show. I have several relatives working overtime for the first time in 6 years and they are putting on additional shifts. I have friends in the industrial construction industry and they can not get enough people willing to get their hands dirty. wages in that sector are going up quickly in many locations.

 

there were more people on welfare and out of the workforce under Obama than ever before.

I am not sure where you are getting your information, can you give clear stats and sources so we can see please?

Well since you said please..

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm

look under production and non-supervisory workers. The people who make up the majority of American workers. The people who need a real raise the most.

From June 2017 to June 2018, real average hourly earnings decreased 0.2 percent, seasonally adjusted. 
Combining the change in real average hourly earnings with a 0.3-percent increase in the average 
workweek resulted in no change to real average weekly earnings over this period. 

[mcambl61]

34 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

It's pretty odd that you ask for someone to produce the source of their data while not producing yours. So where's your evidence about wages?

I am glad you are playing hall monitor.

my evidence comes from Extended family and friends, i did not say it was in every industry, just the ones I know personally about. When was the last time you were there?

I just came back ind it is booming, like it or not.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2018/07/05/us-wage-growth-in-june-was-2018s-strongest-so-far/36579285/

[mcambl61]

22 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Unlike during Obama's tenure when the numbers showed a big improvement in the economy and Republicans overwhelmingly accepted those numbers as being accurate.

You can't be serious. Bailing out union companies and amassing 9 trillion in new debt without one single major infrastructure improvement, a stunning success

[bristolboy]

3 minutes ago, mcambl61 said:

I am glad you are playing hall monitor.

my evidence comes from Extended family and friends, i did not say it was in every industry, just the ones I know personally about. When was the last time you were there?

I just came back ind it is booming, like it or not.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2018/07/05/us-wage-growth-in-june-was-2018s-strongest-so-far/36579285/

Was it you or some hacker who broke into your account who asked:

"I am not sure where you are getting your information, can you give clear stats and sources so we can see please?"

[mcambl61]

42 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

It's pretty odd that you ask for someone to produce the source of their data while not producing yours. So where's your evidence about wages?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2018/07/05/us-wage-growth-in-june-was-2018s-strongest-so-far/36579285/

 

 

https://www.epi.org/nominal-wage-tracker/?gclid=CjwKCAjwhevaBRApEiwA7aT53wfdeaI9s4Doq0Ox8QO7Fe-ZUFGG31kdB4FNxX2iIYDaAryGehuvlBoC80kQAvD_BwE

 

wage rise will always lag behind. the trend is up, but it will take time. but we should hang him now aye?

[mcambl61]

1 minute ago, bristolboy said:

Was it you or some hacker who broke into your account who asked:

"I am not sure where you are getting your information, can you give clear stats and sources so we can see please?"

that reply wasn't to you was it? 

 

I asked where the information was from, get over, geez.

[bristolboy]

2 minutes ago, mcambl61 said:

You can't be serious. Bailing out union companies and amassing 9 trillion in new debt without one single major infrastructure improvement, a stunning success

Of course there was no infrastructure improvement. When interest rates were virtuall zero and the economy was still recovering, the Republicans were all about austerity. Not that the economy has recovered, they're all about record deficits. Exactly the opposite of the way it should be done.

And instead of slashing taxes which went overwhelmingly to the richest Americans, Trump could have committed 1 trillion of that to infrastructure. Remember the 1 trillion dollars of infrastructure building that he promised?

[bristolboy]

2 minutes ago, mcambl61 said:

that reply wasn't to you was it? 

 

I asked where the information was from, get over, geez.

This is a public forum open to all members. If you want to have a private conversation, use the PM service.

And clearly it wasn't information you were after. If that were the case, you'd be thanking me.

Edited July 28, 2018 by bristolboy

[bristolboy]

6 minutes ago, mcambl61 said:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2018/07/05/us-wage-growth-in-june-was-2018s-strongest-so-far/36579285/

 

 

https://www.epi.org/nominal-wage-tracker/?gclid=CjwKCAjwhevaBRApEiwA7aT53wfdeaI9s4Doq0Ox8QO7Fe-ZUFGG31kdB4FNxX2iIYDaAryGehuvlBoC80kQAvD_BwE

 

wage rise will always lag behind. the trend is up, but it will take time. but we should hang him now aye?

Not when unemployment is at this level.In fact, accorinding to the eminent right wing economist, John Taylor, wages should now be outpacing economic growth. 

Edited July 28, 2018 by bristolboy

[mcambl61]

12 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Not when unemployment is at this level.In fact, accorinding to the eminent right wing economist, John Taylor, wages should now be outpacing economic growth. 

well he MUST be right...perhaps it will rise in Q3 or should we impeach the president now?

 

[mcambl61]

17 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Of course there was no infrastructure improvement. When interest rates were virtuall zero and the economy was still recovering, the Republicans were all about austerity. Not that the economy has recovered, they're all about record deficits. Exactly the opposite of the way it should be done.

And instead of slashing taxes which went overwhelmingly to the richest Americans, Trump could have committed 1 trillion of that to infrastructure. Remember the 1 trillion dollars of infrastructure building that he promised?

He would have loved to do it, as he said. it takes a budget, you know those things passed by congress?

 

I get it, you are an obama fan, its your right. but how long do we keep pretending he was an economic genius.

[mcambl61]

20 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

This is a public forum open to all members. If you want to have a private conversation, use the PM service.

And clearly it wasn't information you were after. If that were the case, you'd be thanking me.

you certainly are high on yourself boy

[jenny2017]

Who believes anything this fool is saying has to be a fool himself/herself/ ?

[cycolista]

1 hour ago, mcambl61 said:

You can't be serious. Bailing out union companies and amassing 9 trillion in new debt without one single major infrastructure improvement, a stunning success

Since we're talking about debt.....

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2018/02/09/trumps-federal-budget-deficit-1-trillion-and-beyond/#76836e0f544f

[Lungstib]

4 hours ago, mcambl61 said:

I am not sure where you are getting your information, can you give clear stats and sources so we can see please?

From CNN.     When adjusted for inflation, wages haven't moved much in decades. The typical worker made just over $22 an hour last year, compared to a little more than $20 in 1973, according to the Hamilton Project's calculations.

From Poverty USA.    In 2016, 21.2% of all children (15.3 million kids) lived in Poverty USA—that’s almost 1 in every 5 children. What’s worse, 6.7% of the population—or 21.3 million people—live in deep poverty, with incomes below 50% of their poverty thresholds.

From International Policy Digest.    Homelessness remains such a prominent problem in the United States that The Guardian recently penned an entire series of articles (still ongoing) on the topic called Outside in America. Among the most notable articles in the collection is a piece titled “Bussed Out: How America Moves Its Homeless,” an eye-opening exposé detailing the way some cities have chosen to deal with their housing crisis by bussing homeless people out of the city to somewhere with a more affordable cost of living.

[bristolboy]

3 hours ago, mcambl61 said:

you certainly are high on yourself boy

You're setting a very low bar if you think that stating the obvious means that someone is high on himself.

[bristolboy]

3 hours ago, mcambl61 said:

He would have loved to do it, as he said. it takes a budget, you know those things passed by congress?

 

I get it, you are an obama fan, its your right. but how long do we keep pretending he was an economic genius.

He pushed for tax cuts that go mainly to the wealthy rather than for funding for infrastructure. What's so hard to understand about that?

[bristolboy]

4 hours ago, mcambl61 said:

well he MUST be right...perhaps it will rise in Q3 or should we impeach the president now?

 

Invoking the subject of impeachment here is an obvious attempt at deflection. Give it a rest.

[Becker]

More BS from the Swamp King:

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ap-fact-check-trump-falsely-044729698.html

[mike324]

On 7/28/2018 at 12:54 PM, mcambl61 said:

You can't be serious. Bailing out union companies and amassing 9 trillion in new debt without one single major infrastructure improvement, a stunning success

You do know that the debt problem was not due to policies set by Obama. I'm sure you know that the US has to bail out US companies for the good of the country and citizens too!  And Trump is using the same exact data to brag about growth and how great the economy is, when he said those data were fake and made up during Obamas term.  

 

Yes I do agree that no major infrastructure improvement is problematic. 

[bristolboy]

1 hour ago, mike324 said:

You do know that the debt problem was not due to policies set by Obama. I'm sure you know that the US has to bail out US companies for the good of the country and citizens too!  And Trump is using the same exact data to brag about growth and how great the economy is, when he said those data were fake and made up during Obamas term.  

 

Yes I do agree that no major infrastructure improvement is problematic. 

From 1994 Obama had a Republican House to contend with. They were dead set against spending on infrastructure. And that was when interest rates were virtually zero. That was the best time to borrow.  But you know, Republicans hate debt. At least when a democrat is President. But now that the economy is in recovery, and government stimulus isn't necessary, apparently they can't get enough of it. And one way to up that debt is to give huge tax breaks to the rich rather than spend that money on infrastructure.

[Opl]

On ‎7‎/‎28‎/‎2018 at 8:21 AM, mcambl61 said:

He would have loved to do it, as he said. it takes a budget, you know those things passed by congress?

 

I get it, you are an obama fan, its your right. but how long do we keep pretending he was an economic genius.

" Trump’s 4.1 percent this past quarter as being particularly special is like Trump giving himself a participation trophy. To repeat, the below--listed Obama era numbers were considered part of “American carnage,” yet Trump’s middling GDP numbers are defined as “historic.”

https://www.salon.com/2018/07/30/donald-trump-may-be-the-worst-liar-in-political-history-and-its-getting-worse/

John Harwood

 

✔ @JohnJHarwood

 

 

strong 4.1% growth under Trump in Q2 of 2018 would rank as 5th strongest Q of Obama presidency

—5.1% Q2 2014
—4.9% Q3 2014
—4.7% Q4 2011
—4.5% Q4 2009

2:59 PM - Jul 27, 2018

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Edited July 31, 2018 by Opl