UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll

[vinny41]

2 hours ago, sandyf said:

It wouldn't be out of the question for some people to think that putting up with a Labour government for 5 years may be a price worth paying to get out of this mess.

After all the following government can put it all right again, that's democracy, isn't it.

labour manifesto currently states they respect the 2016 EU refundum results and under Labour the UK will leave the EU, customs market and the single market

[mommysboy]

1 hour ago, melvinmelvin said:

 

I see,

busy year or 2 ahead for the bookies

 

Very busy. 

[mommysboy]

16 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

labour manifesto currently states they respect the 2016 EU refundum results and under Labour the UK will leave the EU, customs market and the single market

Circumstances have changed.  Nothing ruled in or out. 

 

In setting out the 6 tests, we might as well be saying the Norway Deal.

 

But that's if they even get in to power and there's a heck of lot of bombshells to go off first.

 

Likely the action will start when May returns with the deal.  She'll be for the chop, but whether it's a Labour or Conservative sword is anyone's guess.

 

 

Edited October 13, 2018 by mommysboy

[vinny41]

11 minutes ago, kwilco said:

Many people think they will be able to buy stuff around the world. heaper outside Brexit - this is of course nonsense - the EU has a buying power well over that of a single nation and also has say in quality control....

 

 

The truth about the Single Market

Ignore the fearmongers: leaving the market could be a boon for Britain.

Or take a drinks product: roasted coffee. Again the EU has taken its own decision to protect its coffee producers, in particular (again) German ones. It sets a 7.5 per cent tariff on imports from other advanced economies. Again this is relatively high, compared to New Zealand’s five per cent, with Canada, Australia and the US all applying zero tariffs. This means that if Britain finds its goods becoming less competitive in EU markets, the immediate source of this problem is the EU’s protectionism, not the absence of a trade agreement. Trade agreements are primarily required in order to get around such protectionism.

 

Take some specific tariff examples. The car industry: it has been widely stated that if a British-EU FTA is not agreed, then ‘under WTO rules’ the EU will impose 10 per cent import tariffs on cars exported by Nissan, Vauxhall, Jaguar Land Rover and the other car manufacturers based in Britain. But this reference to ‘WTO rules’ can mislead us into believing that the WTO sets this particular level of tariffs. Not so.

The WTO’s ‘most favoured nation’ (MFN) rule says that the lowest tariff you offer to any one ‘favoured’ country, outside of a registered FTA, has to be applied to all other countries: a level playing field of protectionism. So without an FTA, British car manufacturers will be penalised by an effective 10 per cent price hike. But the 10 per cent is not some globally agreed figure. The decision to set it so high was made voluntarily by the EU, to protect EU-based car manufacturers, not least Germany’s and France’s. What are car tariffs in the rest of the advanced industrial world? Canada: 6.1 per cent; Australia: five per cent; US: 2.5 per cent; New Zealand: 0 per cent. There is nothing to stop the EU dropping its car tariff to the New Zealand level, except its protectionist bent.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2017/03/24/the-truth-about-the-single-market/

[kwilco]

The UK motor industry is a foothold in the EU for most manufacturers - so without free access and freedom of movement they will do what they say they are going to do - move out.

 

the official government advice to several companies has been to move out too.

Edited October 13, 2018 by kwilco

[vinny41]

5 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Circumstances have changed.  Nothing ruled in or out. 

 

In setting out the 6 tests, we might as well be saying the Norway Deal.

 

 

The majority of the 5.1 million labour voters that voted leave wouldn't vote for the Labour , if Labour announced we were staying in the EU and the customs union and the single market

[vinny41]

1 minute ago, kwilco said:

The UK motor industry is a foothold in the EU for most manufacturers - so without free access and freedom of movement they will do what they say they are going to do - move out.

Very diffcult to sell a car based on its British if not made in the Uk

USA Buyers have been paying a premium on British cars for a number of years , why do they pay that premium

its because the car is British and made in the Uk

[mommysboy]

5 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

The majority of the 5.1 million labour voters that voted leave wouldn't vote for the Labour , if Labour announced we were staying in the EU and the customs union and the single market

They won't though.  Not before the next election. They'll be pushing for a Custom's union.

 

Really, Labour hold the cards. They could even pass the deal in a bargain for an election. 

 

Whoever does the deal is done for.  Watch what happens to May. She's the fall guy really.

 

 

[Orac]

The truth about the Single Market

Ignore the fearmongers: leaving the market could be a boon for Britain.

Or take a drinks product: roasted coffee. Again the EU has taken its own decision to protect its coffee producers, in particular (again) German ones. It sets a 7.5 per cent tariff on imports from other advanced economies. Again this is relatively high, compared to New Zealand’s five per cent, with Canada, Australia and the US all applying zero tariffs. This means that if Britain finds its goods becoming less competitive in EU markets, the immediate source of this problem is the EU’s protectionism, not the absence of a trade agreement. Trade agreements are primarily required in order to get around such protectionism.
 

Take some specific tariff examples. The car industry: it has been widely stated that if a British-EU FTA is not agreed, then ‘under WTO rules’ the EU will impose 10 per cent import tariffs on cars exported by Nissan, Vauxhall, Jaguar Land Rover and the other car manufacturers based in Britain. But this reference to ‘WTO rules’ can mislead us into believing that the WTO sets this particular level of tariffs. Not so.

The WTO’s ‘most favoured nation’ (MFN) rule says that the lowest tariff you offer to any one ‘favoured’ country, outside of a registered FTA, has to be applied to all other countries: a level playing field of protectionism. So without an FTA, British car manufacturers will be penalised by an effective 10 per cent price hike. But the 10 per cent is not some globally agreed figure. The decision to set it so high was made voluntarily by the EU, to protect EU-based car manufacturers, not least Germany’s and France’s. What are car tariffs in the rest of the advanced industrial world? Canada: 6.1 per cent; Australia: five per cent; US: 2.5 per cent; New Zealand: 0 per cent. There is nothing to stop the EU dropping its car tariff to the New Zealand level, except its protectionist bent.

https://www.spiked-online.com/2017/03/24/the-truth-about-the-single-market/

When someone selects specific products ie. roasted coffee and then further narrows it down by specifying advanced economies which generally grow very little coffee then it is rather obvious they are cherry picking so as to ignore the EBA and other FTA agreements in place that remove these tariffs on the very countries that need that access to EU markets.


Sent from my iPad using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Jip99]

2 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

 

 

Whoever does the deal is done for.  Watch what happens to May. She's the fall guy really.

 

 

 

 

I find it it very hard to argue against that.

[melvinmelvin]

55 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Substantially more amusing and educational!

 

to bad my so called wireless broadband (DTAC) connection is not up to videos (8 days out of 10)

I did see a wee bit of the 3 blokes WTO video,

they were sitting in a restaurant at the rose garden side of the lake and could look across to wto

i think

but looking 3 seconds buffering 15 seconds looing 3 seconds - pisses me off after a short while

 

 

[bomber]

33 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

They won't though.  Not before the next election. They'll be pushing for a Custom's union.

 

Really, Labour hold the cards. They could even pass the deal in a bargain for an election. 

 

Whoever does the deal is done for.  Watch what happens to May. She's the fall guy really.

 

 

i agree,but the EU will be even more ruthless with BJ,so a deal looks highly unlikely,so we go to a GE and JC will piss it.double whammy

[mommysboy]

36 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

I find it it very hard to argue against that.

The other thing is the opposition parties (or indeed Tory rebels) don't necessarily have to make the Brexit deal vote the battleground in order to scupper the Government.

 

There are a few key votes coming up over the next few months. If the Tories don't pass the annual Finance Bill for instance, that is seen as a no confidence vote, and a GE is inevitable.  In fact as far as Labour concerned, this would be their most preferred strategy.

[mommysboy]

1 hour ago, vinny41 said:

The majority of the 5.1 million labour voters that voted leave wouldn't vote for the Labour , if Labour announced we were staying in the EU and the customs union and the single market

That's too simplistic.

 

And maybe an equal number of Tory remainers would vote Labour, perhaps, or more likely they'd both lose and gain in equal amounts.

 

Even the fiercely right wing Express is now reporting a preference of voters for a soft Brexit:https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1030799/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Norway-style-deal-latest-Ireland-border-Theresa-May-no-deal-latest

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 13, 2018 by mommysboy

[vinny41]

11 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

That's too simplistic.

 

And maybe an equal number of Tory remainers would vote Labour, perhaps, or more likely they'd both lose and gain in equal amounts.

 

Even the fiercely right wing Express is now reporting a preference of voters for a soft Brexit:https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1030799/Brexit-news-UK-EU-Norway-style-deal-latest-Ireland-border-Theresa-May-no-deal-latest

 

 

 

 

 

And if you read the comments section you will find that the majority of express readers disagree with the article

[mommysboy]

24 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

And if you read the comments section you will find that the majority of express readers disagree with the article

Well I guess they have the same opinion as you after all it is a fiercely pro Brexit rag.

[melvinmelvin]

seems to me that all this noise re the NI border slowly moves UK in a direction where there will not be a proper Brexit in March

 

[mommysboy]

27 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

seems to me that all this noise re the NI border slowly moves UK in a direction where there will not be a proper Brexit in March

 

Yes.

 

But a transition period was a given anyway, and there isn't going to be a special day like an FA cup final. Even with a quick Brexit this is going to be a wrangle for 5,10, or even 20 Years.  This deal coming up has no finality, it's just a declaration to do a deal. 

 

So much for doing it in an afternoon as envisaged.

 

The Norway model, could in principle be agreed very quickly, and there would be a seamless transition, since we are already fully aligned. Indeed many senior Leave figures promised it at the time.

 

 

[Grouse]

55 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Yes.

 

But a transition period was a given anyway, and there isn't going to be a special day like an FA cup final. Even with a quick Brexit this is going to be a wrangle for 5,10, or even 20 Years.  This deal coming up has no finality, it's just a declaration to do a deal. 

 

So much for doing it in an afternoon as envisaged.

 

The Norway model, could in principle be agreed very quickly, and there would be a seamless transition, since we are already fully aligned. Indeed many senior Leave figures promised it at the time.

 

 

But we would need Norway PLUS customs union to resolve NI.

 

I think EU would offer a special deal to reduce free movement if we went for SM + CU (EFTA/EEA) and some form of customs union.

 

But, if we do that, it would be better to remain and keep a seat at the top table.

[kwilco]

On 10/10/2018 at 12:53 AM, BwindiBoy said:

"" It now seems certain "", does it? Just stop with your continued scare mongering. Please!

Sorry if you find this scary ... but really, be afraid....be very afraid, it really is going to happen

[kwilco]

Just about anyone who is anyone is getting out of UK....Yet Brexiteers are still in denial.

 

First Panasonic and now this....

 

https://www.ft.com/content/d99078d2-c883-11e8-ba8f-ee390057b8c9

 

 

Edited October 13, 2018 by kwilco

[vinny41]

Panasonic to move Europe headquarters from UK to Amsterdam

Panasonic will move its European headquarters from the UK to Amsterdam in October as Brexit approaches.

The aim is to avoid potential tax issues linked to the UK's decision to leave the EU, said Panasonic Europe's chief executive Laurent Abadie.

In the run-up to March 2019, a number of multinational firms have said they plan to move jobs out of the UK.

Several Japanese financial companies have said they intend to move their main EU bases away from London.

Panasonic's decision was driven by a fear that Japan could start considering the UK a tax haven if it cuts corporate tax rates to attract business, Mr Abadie told the Nikkei Asian Review newspaper.

If Panasonic ends up paying less tax in the UK, that could render it liable for a bigger tax bill in Japan.

•  

Mr Abadie told the Nikkei Asian Review that Panasonic had been considering the move for 15 months, because of Brexit-related concerns such as access to free flow of goods and people.

Panasonic Europe later issued a statement confirming that it was transferring its regional headquarters from Bracknell in the UK to Amsterdam from 1 October.

It said it was doing so for several reasons, including "improved efficiency and cost competitiveness".

It said "fewer than approximately 10" people would be affected out of a staff of 30.

"No Panasonic UK business operations will be affected by the EU headquarters move," the statement added.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45351288

Seems they are  moving because of tax and move affects 10 people

[tebee]

55 minutes ago, Grouse said:

But we would need Norway PLUS customs union to resolve NI.

 

I think EU would offer a special deal to reduce free movement if we went for SM + CU (EFTA/EEA) and some form of customs union.

 

But, if we do that, it would be better to remain and keep a seat at the top table.

EFTA/EEA + CU is not possible - they have their own customs deals which are not compatible with the EU CU

 

So we'd need our own custom solution - again we run into time problems 

[mommysboy]

27 minutes ago, tebee said:

EFTA/EEA + CU is not possible - they have their own customs deals which are not compatible with the EU CU

 

So we'd need our own custom solution - again we run into time problems 

Well it's theoretical anyway;this government would most likely see no deal as a good result.  Only I can't see the voters sharing that opinion.

 

As one poster pointed out earlier, some might even see 5 years of Labour rule an acceptable price to pay, since a no deal Brexit would almost certainly trigger devolution in Scotland and N.Ireland. I could imagine the hard right rubbing their hands at that one.

Edited October 13, 2018 by mommysboy

[mommysboy]

It's the Independent's Final Say Brexit demo next week! Fingers crossed for the weather.  Anyone going?

 

Let's hope this lot don't decide on another little stroll; it's probable they won't as the footy's back on.  Weird times!  Is this anything other than than the Football Hooligan's Party?

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/democratic-football-lads-alliance-march-violence-riot-kill-police-officer-london-protest-a8582636.html

[mommysboy]

"Own your own sXXX!"

 

I can't help thing NF's dedication to the cause is somewhat questionable given he scuttled off when the dirty deed was done.  Still, he puts on a show- beats panto anytime.  He makes some valid points though.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1030984/Brexit-news-update-Nigel-Farage-Alastair-Campbell-Theresa-May-latest

 

 

[Guest]

From https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-09/u-s-is-said-to-mull-blocking-u-k-from-global-procurement-pact

 

Then again, we already know that the press, eager for clicks, works to get distress for people. Quite similar way as the Russian trolls. 

 

Quote

 

The U.S. is threatening to block the U.K. from a 46-nation public procurement agreement, a move that would deny British companies from accessing a near $2 trillion marketplace after leaving the European Union, according to two officials with knowledge of the situation.

 

The U.K. will apply to rejoin the Government Procurement Agreement, a $1.7 trillion trade accord that governs global appropriation rules, since it will lose its membership after Brexit in March. U.S. negotiators have told their British counterparts that their application is outdated and needs to be revised, said the officials, who asked not to be identified because talks are ongoing.

[kwilco]

Here's a checklist for Brexit......just see how far the government hasn't got.....

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexspence/now-comes-the-hard-part?utm_term=.qwNJkbaY7#.sdJPjVvDQ

 

[kwilco]

For those who have trouble believing that UK could become a fascist state....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/12/theresa-mays-brexit-speech-had-shades-of-hitler

 

 

Edited October 13, 2018 by kwilco

[My Thai Life]

8 minutes ago, kwilco said:

For those who have trouble believing that UK could become a fascist state....

You obviously haven't read the article, it's three short paragraphs claiming to trace the rhetoric of "citizens of nowhere".