In the South, four more WASTED YEARS

By The Nation

 

 

The military has always set the pace in the border provinces, so it’s no surprise that peace remains elusive under a military govt

 

The junta is mulling the legacy it will leave behind regarding its four years of control over the troubled southern border provinces.

 

The generals might not be going anywhere depending on the outcome of the 2019 election, but they must be concerned that there’s so little to show for yet another block of time that’s passed with no resolution to the insurrectionist problem.

 

For the Malay-speaking South, the junta’s turn in power has been just more of the same as, and in fact oddly reminiscent of, the days when Yingluck Shinawatra, whom the generals ousted, fumbled though attempts at peace initiatives.

 

Both administrations were cultivating false hope when they knowingly talked to the wrong people to try and persuade the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), which has command over the armed militants, to participate in talks about ending the conflict. We now know that the BRN cannot simply be dismissed as stubborn.

 

It has indeed been smart enough to recognise that the Thai authorities’ sole intent was to draw its leaders out in the open and commit them to a process, while their concerns and grievances would continue being ignored. Many would consider the group wise to remain underground, ready to fight on.

 

The Thai state has not only refused to address the historical grievances of the Malays of Patani, it has failed to indicate any concessions it might be willing to make in the interest of peace. 

 

It was only seven months after the May 2014 coup that the junta announced it would continue efforts made by the Yingluck government to revive the peace process.

 

It said any discussions would have to include all longstanding Patani separatist groups under one representative umbrella – and the umbrella turned out to be MARA Patani. BRN, declining to participate, could be forgiven for taking offence if the Thais regarded all Patani groups as fundamentally the same. It reflects a deep-seated prejudice towards the Malays. 

 

Before MARA Patani was formed, its future members were rubbing shoulders with foreign NGOs, the King Prachadhipok Institute and Malaysian special branch police, the aim being to enhance their legitimacy and international standing.

 

Today they have nothing to show for such outreach because the people of Patani do not regard them as legitimate. Without the BRN, the peace dialogue with MARA Patani was doomed to fail.

 

Even Thailand’s new chief negotiator, General Udomchai Thamsarorat, is now suggesting a change in course and has asked to meet BRN leaders separately. He went as far as ditching the “safety zone” pilot project launched earlier this year, along with its requisite ceasefire, saying he wanted to start again with a clean slate.

 

If this seems sensible and perhaps cause for optimism, beware that, to observers who monitor the conflict closely, Udomchai sounds like a broken record. Every general in charge before him has arrived on the scene with a fresh trick up his sleeve, and they all went home empty-handed. 

 

The state and the military have always ensured there were wedges dividing civil society organisations, pitting one against another with offers of funding and laughable “information operations”. In fact, Udomchai would be well advised to halt such operations, which aren’t so much counter-intelligence as they are counterproductive, pushing aside people and groups that might be helpful.

 

But perhaps that’s to be left to another government.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30359564

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-11-30

This is simply a sad, sad situation; decades of mistrust, decades of patrolling soldiers, decades of checkpoints, decades of surveillance, etc and nothing really to show for it.

 

"...Both administrations were cultivating false hope when they knowingly talked to the wrong people to try and persuade the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), which has command over the armed militants, to participate in talks about ending the conflict. We now know that the BRN cannot simply be dismissed as stubborn. 

It has indeed been smart enough to recognise that the Thai authorities’ sole intent was to draw its leaders out in the open and commit them to a process, while their concerns and grievances would continue being ignored. Many would consider the group wise to remain underground, ready to fight on..."

 

"...knowingly talked to the wrong people..."

 

That short snippet of a sentence really says it all. Is the Thai state serious about achieving some sort of peace settlement? Based on the seriousness of their negotiations, one really has to wonder if they are.

 

Is there support for the rebels? Based on the evidence, there is; it is unlikely in the extreme that the local people would tolerate the decades of military presence if they didn't agree with what was being fought over. And, the rebels simply could not function without the support of the local people; without widespread local support they'd have all been caught a long, long time ago.

 

My outsider's view is quite simple; if the Thai state wants peace in the south, they can get it IF they are serious. However, it doesn't look like they are serious.

 

PS Hey Nation!

 

Stop trying to spread the blame for all this to Yingluck. Yes, her administration failed as well, but the military has been in complete (Complete!!!) control of Thailand for over four years; they own the current situation 'lock, stock and barrel'. Quit it, you suck ups!

1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Thai state wants peace

Does not sound like it.  Conflict brings funding and gives a largely idle military something to do.  I used to live near the border on the Malaysian side.  It is a wonderful area. 

2 hours ago, webfact said:

but they must be concerned that there’s so little to show

why ? they are drawing excessive salaries, can enjoy opportunities for corruption; they aren't concerned about this in the slightest

Without a Southern unrest there would be even less need for a big over-bloated army and its need for a 'blimp'. The army needs this conflict.

They army seems to have absolutely no motivation to resolve this conflict. It gives them a reason for being, which they barely have anymore, especially after these horrific last four years, and their epic failure at running the country. 

6 hours ago, webfact said:

But perhaps that’s to be left to another government.

Never to an elected government so long as the military has the power to obstruct negotiations as it did ultimately with Yingluck.

Thailand signs peace talks deal with Muslim rebels

28 February 2013

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-21611764

Junta going ahead with peace process it helped undermine

Having fought against the talks under the Yingluck govt, its military-backed successor is now forging ahead with a flawed bid to end the southern insurgency

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Junta-going-ahead-with-peace-process-it-helped-und-30268419.html

11 hours ago, yellowboat said:

Does not sound like it.  Conflict brings funding and gives a largely idle military something to do.  I used to live near the border on the Malaysian side.  It is a wonderful area. 

Of course.

Always in need of a perpetuating boogieman.

If not real, one will be created.