Talking about the long standing level of 800K bank method OR 65K a month income method.

People have been predicting it was about to go up for the last 10 to 15 years but it has not happened.

Recently such predictions are heating up.

It's a safe, logical and superficially superficially probable prediction.

But I submit it is probably a wrong prediction.

Why you ask!?!

Multiple reasons.

The current level reflects within a range that is dominant globally for retirement visas including in Europe.

Basically the mainstream level is between 1000 USD and 2000 USD a month.

Thailand added new visas that can be used instead.

The Long-Term Resident Visa (LTR Visa) which does have higher financial requirements and also the Privilege Entry Visa (ex Elite) that is widely acknowledged now to be very overpriced.

So they have already raised the financial requirements if you choose those options!

The standard option serves Thailand's purposes well and I submit at the current levels will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

What are you saying dude? Have you gone batty?

Well the agent system which apparently is quasi legal is a boon for certain people in the system. Make the original offer too high and you'll scare off a lot of people even to get to the point of paying agents.

The filtering out system long in place is CACHING central. Why would you mess with it?

Every new retired expat in Thailand is a big old cash now in creating new households, importing lots of money (now may be taxed), maybe buying condos and cars, etc.

Whether the new expat lasts one year or forty. Thailand makes almost no commitment to them so inviting masses of them is almost all reward, and almost no risk.

The ones who flame out for all the well known reasons, so what does Thailand care?

They leave or die. End of story.

If being able to afford to live here was the main problem, they'll just flame out. Doesn't hurt Thailand.

So I submit it is against the self interest of the government of Thailand to increase the financial requirements for the classic basic retirement path (OA or O).

---

Why didn't I put this topic in the Thai visa section?

Because topics like this are NOT WELCOME there.

Otherwise I would have.

Edited August 27Aug 27 by Jingthing

Just for fun (and also to bump) I will place a FIVE YEAR time limit on my prediction of no change though the arguments behind it really last much longer than that.

Edited Thursday at 11:51 PM5 days by Jingthing

Talking about the long standing level of 800K bank method OR 65K a month income method.

11 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Well the agent system which apparently is quasi legal is a boon for certain people in the system. Make the original offer too high and you'll scare off a lot of people even to get to the point of paying agents.

---

Totally illegal

14 minutes ago, henryford1958 said:

Talking about the long standing level of 800K bank method OR 65K a month income method.

Totally illegal

Then why has there NEVER been a crackdown?

The loophole is that officers have the legal right of DISCRETION on approving or rejecting.

2 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Then why has there NEVER been a crackdown?

The loophole is that officers have the legal right of DISCRETION on approving or rejecting.

The same as nominee companies. They turn a blind eye, until they don't.

Just now, henryford1958 said:

The same as nominee companies. They turn a blind eye, until they don't.

Yes I understand but I think this might be different in that the agent game might actually be quasi legal.

Of course if they do ever crack down on it , it would be an expat earthquake.

I've never used them and advise against it, but so many do and I think in some cases these days like converting to an O within Thailand you may even need to.

16 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

The loophole is that officers have the legal right of DISCRETION on approving or rejecting.

Yes. But they do not have the right under the Immigration Act or current Ministerial Order to require a bribe to exercise their discretion. And several fraudulent documents are required to allow the "plausible deniability" of those who actual put their signatures in the expat's passport.

While the daisy chain to allow the agent to "cover" (in the preferred VISA forum term) the 800k, there are still some weak links in the chain.

Edited Friday at 01:03 AM5 days by JerryM

2 minutes ago, JerryM said:

Yes. But hey do not have the right to require a bribe to exercise their discretion. And several fraudulent documents are required to allow the "plausible deniability" of those who actual put their signatures in the expat's passport.

While the daisy chain to allow the agent to "cover" (in the preferred VISA forum term) the 800k, there are still some weak links in the chain.

Such as,? Big Joke could,n t find one.. Oh hang on! He was it.

While I appreciate your argument, I think the wild card is Anutin. The recent crackdowns on many previously acceptable actions are probably his doing, though I could be wrong. The nominee system served a purpose. It brought capital into Thailand. It was never a secret. Anutin---or somebody--thinks its job is done.

In order to entice only "quality retirees", it would not surprise me if the financial levels were increased dramatically, even if they dwarfed the average of other supposedly welcoming destinations.

I could see something like $100K per year income or 3 million baht in a Thai bank. That isn't so high as to eliminate everyone, but it's high enough that it would suggest an ability to add more economic value to the Thai economy. A retiree living on 50K baht a month doesn't really add much value on his own, and I doubt the argument that an infinite number of 50K/month retirees adds up washes with Anutin. Plus, agents could still make money helping retirees to pretend they've plopped 3 million baht in a Thai bank.

If I look around the world, I see leadership is increasingly catering to, almost solely, the elite of society. I don't see why Thailand would be any different.

Finally, were I a retiree, I would not bank on being grandfathered, simply because I've been here for a long time, built a house, married a Thai woman, or produced mixed kids. Everyone best have a Plan B, just in case. Somehow, just somehow, I get the impression Anutin is not fond of westerners.

Edited Friday at 01:09 AM5 days by Wingate

2 minutes ago, Olmate said:

Such as,?

Such as I have noted on the VISA forum and was met with Haha's, Disagree, and referred to as drivel so I won't do it again here.

27 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Then why has there NEVER been a crackdown?

For one thing, it creates jobs for visa agents.

And maybe x% of foreigners would not be here if the requirements were too strict.

So they crunched the numbers and decided it was in their best interest to keep it like that.

It might change, but not because of "morality of adhering to strict rules".

Your theory is plausible. It's a delicate balancing act. If requirements get too high, many expats leave and they lose money.

4 minutes ago, Wingate said:

A retiree living on 50K baht a month doesn't really add much value on his own,

That's nonsense.

Multiply that by 30 years and it's millions of Baht.

And multiply that by tens of thousands of retirees, it's not an insignificant influx into the country.

4 minutes ago, Wingate said:

Finally, were I a retiree, I would not bank on being grandfathered,

The thing about the grandfather -- whether they do it or not -- is that it is already built into the mechanism at 2.22(6) f the current ministerial order.

33 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Then why has there NEVER been a crackdown?

The loophole is that officers have the legal right of DISCRETION on approving or rejecting.

As they only do so when bribed to excercise that right that's corruption and illegal. If it was legal why don't people cut out the agent and just give the bribe direct to an immigration officer?

4 minutes ago, JerryM said:

Such as I have noted on the VISA forum and was met with Haha's, Disagree, and referred to as drivel so I won't do it again here.

Up to you, but so feeble your crying 'wolf'and retiring defeated. 🚫

1 minute ago, Olmate said:

Up to you, but so feeble your crying 'wolf'and retiring defeated. 🚫

No -- it's just that at what point I posted a screen shot of the Immigration Act and it got laughing emojis from the resident experts and maybe yourself, I am not gonna respond again to a posting like yours.

1 minute ago, JerryM said:

No -- it's just that at what point I posted a screen shot of the Immigration Act and it got laughing emojis from the resident experts and maybe yourself, I am not gonna respond again to a posting like yours.

I don't do single emojis without comment, but as your coming up empty here with supporting detail on this thread.Yet you say you deserve to be heard.

mmmm.Sooo long

4 minutes ago, Olmate said:

I don't do single emojis without comment, but as your coming up empty here with supporting detail on this thread.Yet you say you deserve to be heard.

mmmm.Sooo long

If it makes your day that I have not responded to your query like I have to many others in the past only to have my posts deleted as off-topic or trolling, then have a nice day.

But I'll leave you with this one:

Resident expert: (IMM officers) are the ones who get to decide whether or not to issue a visa/extension and under what criteria. They can both add AND remove criteria at their discretion.

JerryM: Last time I heard an explanation like that it was for the Infallibility of the Pope.

Our resident "experts" have been predicting an increase in the financials for years, Scaremongering seems to be a hobby for some people.

I suppose its bound to happen one day , and it will presumably delight the "told you so" brigade , some of whom have waited over 10 years for their predictions of doom to come true.

1 hour ago, Wingate said:

I could see something like $100K per year income or 3 million baht in a Thai bank.

3,000,000 baht in a Thai bank that only guarantees 1,000,000 baht deposit protection would be totally unacceptable to me.

10 minutes ago, Bday Prang said:

some of whom have waited over 10 years for their predictions of doom to come true.

The last revision (2019) of the retirement extension provision in the Police Order did not amend the 800K/65K baht requirements which have been there since (at least 2006).

6 minutes ago, JerryM said:

The last revision (2019) of the retirement extension provision in the Police Order did not amend the 800K/65K baht requirements which have been there since (at least 2006).

ok. thanks for the info , I'll change my comment to: some of whom have waited at least 20 years for their predictions of doom to come true

56 minutes ago, JerryM said:

If it makes your day that I have not responded to your query like I have to many others in the past only to have my posts deleted as off-topic or trolling, then have a nice day.

But I'll leave you with this one:

Resident expert: (IMM officers) are the ones who get to decide whether or not to issue a visa/extension and under what criteria. They can both add AND remove criteria at their discretion.

JerryM: Last time I heard an explanation like that it was for the Infallibility of the Pope.

Strange analogy given The Pope is alive and kicking. 😃

I guess the question is......what might the Thais (or rather Anutin) want to achieve by jacking up these numbers?

The first pitch might be numbers that make it impossible, or at least unattractive, for many expats .......flush the dregs out of the system, or force them to marry?

The second pitch might be the old, "we only want to attract the elite".............that would see numbers jump considerably.....but if I were an elite (if only).....I wouldn't want to retire to, or invest in, anywhere on a permanent basis......and even if I did, I'm not too sure Thailand would be that high on my list.

So, they risk kicking out a great many, not wealthy expats, but ones nevertheless, that spend most of their pensions and saving in Thailand.

Unless they go the whole hog, elites only, I really don't see making the requirements more onerous achieving much.

8 minutes ago, Olmate said:

Strange analogy given The Pope is alive and kicking. 😃

It was heard in my Catechism class 7 Popes ago.

Edited Friday at 02:50 AM5 days by JerryM

Bold Prediction = Conjecture, Hypothesis, Supposition, Guesswork.

Nothing more.

If financial requirements get beyond the means of many there are always agents.

Having lived in Asia for a "while" I am always looking for Spot The Scam.

So where is it for all the Legal Beagle Tax, Immigration, et al fear mongering becoming more prevalent on this platform.

7 minutes ago, VocalNeal said:

Bold Prediction = Conjecture, Hypothesis, Supposition, Guesswork.

Nothing more.

If financial requirements get beyond the means of many there are always agents.

Having lived in Asia for a "while" I am always looking for Spot The Scam.

So where is it for all the Legal Beagle Tax, Immigration, et al fear mongering becoming more prevalent on this platform.

So 'where' is it or 'why' is it? It's only on such forums, never have these discussions in real life, amongst fellow expats or similar. It's a reality in real life, agents have the good news regardless of forum chatter, every time. There always a solution, plan B, workaround, wait awhile, there you go!!

Edited Friday at 03:06 AM5 days by Olmate

19 minutes ago, JerryM said:

It was heard in my Catechism class 7 Popes ago.

There, s your answer then, 7 popes ago.

9 minutes ago, Olmate said:

There always a solution, plan B, workaround, wait awhile, there you go!!

With apologies to Australian Helen Reddy:

I am strong (strong)

I am invincible (invincible)

I am AGENT (ooh)

Edited Friday at 03:15 AM5 days by JerryM

I wouldn't be surprised if they lowered the financial requirements. The majority seem to whine about how little money they have and how expensive it is. You don't think the government hears that?

And, countries like he poor British with their frozen pension that barely covers 1/2 of the 65k a month.

Seems the only folks I have seen talking about an increase are those on here.