Thai central bank seen holding key rate despite flagging growth - Reuters poll

By Orathai Sriring

 

Thai baht banknotes are seen next to gold offered for sale in a gold shop in Bangkok's Chinatown April 19, 2013. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj/File Photo

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's central bank is expected to keep its benchmark policy rate steady on Wednesday for a fourth straight meeting, a Reuters poll showed, despite slowing growth and the way many Asian central banks have shifted toward easing policy.

 

In the survey, 14 economists predicted the Bank of Thailand's monetary policy committee (MPC) will keep its one-day repurchase rate at 1.75 percent - half a point above the record low. One analyst forecast a quarter-point cut on weaker growth.

 

The MPC raised the policy rate in December for the first time since 2011, by 25 basis points, but has since held it steady, saying policy will depend on economic data..

 

While faltering growth and low inflation, with the headline rate just 1.15% in May, support policy easing, the BOT has reiterated concerns about financial stability risks and high household debt..

 

Charnon Boonnuch, economist of Nomura in Singapore, sees no policy change the rest of this year, though he expects an outlook downgrade by the central bank.

 

"The tone should continue to be more dovish on the growth outlook... but we do not expect the BOT to cut the policy rate in 2019, owing to its concerns about financial stability" and limited room to cut, he said.

 

Last month, the BOT said 2019 economic growth would be less than its forecast of 3.8%. It will give a new projection on Wednesday. Last year's growth was 4.1%.

 

WEAK Q1 GROWTH

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy grew just 2.8% in the first quarter, the weakest annual pace in over four years, as exports declined amid trade tensions.

 

Domestic political uncertainty remains after a March election as junta chief-turned-civilian prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha will lead a fragile coalition. His cabinet line-up is expected to be announced by next month.

 

The central bank will be hoping that the new government does "more of the heavy lifting" with measures to try to stimulate growth, said Kobsidthi Silpachai, head of capital markets research of Kasikornbank, which expects no BOT policy change this year.

 

HSBC said the recent dovish tilt from most central banks and a potential further deceleration in global and domestic growth, could prompt the BOT to "reverse course" on monetary policy in future.

 

ING sees a cut as soon as this week, "if only to reverse the 25 bp rate hike from late 2018," economist Prakash Sakpal in Singapore said in a note.

 

"It's hard to imagine the BOT ignoring the 1Q GDP data, while activity data for the second quarter doesn't offer much hope that the worst is over".

 

(Additional reporting by Satawasin Staporncharnchai; Editing by Richard Borsuk)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-06-24

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12 minutes ago, webfact said:

"It's hard to imagine the BOT ignoring the 1Q GDP data, while activity data for the second quarter doesn't offer much hope that the worst is over".

Why is it so hard to imagine TIT .

The banking system is the same farce here as it is in the west.

If the gap between the borrowing rate (+-7%) and savings interest (0.5-1.5%) 

is completely up to banks, then what is the point of reserve banks even setting rates.

 

World Order Scam Crisis come mid 2000s is running fine...

Everyone in the world in debt, while at the same time "old money" and people relying on investments are bled dry

while the bankers use OUR money for FREE to make themselves rich!

When this debt bubble bursts, there will be blood on the streets. Smart folks are cashing up. Waiting to mop up . The rich always add most to their wealth in downturns. They buy up

19 hours ago, webfact said:

"It's hard to imagine the BOT ignoring the 1Q GDP data, while activity data for the second quarter doesn't offer much hope that the worst is over".

 

19 hours ago, webfact said:

"The tone should continue to be more dovish on the growth outlook... but

It wouldn't be hard to imagine IF corruption is involved.

Maybe someone needs to petition the NACC to investigate whether the BOT is potentially colluding with "influential persons and/or corporations" to generate and preserve their wealth while the nation in general suffers economically.

The economy is strong enough to bear the 66 billion baht that the strong baht has cost exports because of tourism which is counted as an export.

 

Have a look at this article

 

https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/tourism/myth-strong-baht-deterring-western-tourists-to-thailand

Well they have to, so the usurpers can expatriate their gains before the inevitable crash.