Here we go 2.0.

There has been a torrent of gloom and doom predictions that based on the surprising massive crackdown on foreigners using lawyer directed nominee structures for real estate deals, that it's only logical that a crackdown on visa agents will be next.

There is undeniable logic behind that. It can be argued the visa agent schemes are "illegal" or involve "corruption" and all that jazz.

I get all that but I'm here to stick my neck out and predict that no matter how logical it sounds to crack down on visa agent schemes, it will NOT happen either soon related to the land crackdown or even within the next 5 years.

Not saying never of course.

Unlike my bold prediction about financial requirements for O and OA based retirement visas NOT going up within 5 years, I don't have much in the way ofl logical arguments for this prediction. This is more of a gut feeling.

Edited August 30Aug 30 by Jingthing

I predict if Thais get more and more sick of dirty farang they will stop the Retirement visa agent 800k in out method, could be in next 5 years

Just now, scubascuba3 said:

I predict if Thais get more and more sick of dirty farang they will stop the Retirement visa agent 800k in out method, could be in next 5 years

Fair enough.

Logical enough.

But I don't think so.

I would take that bet.

1 minute ago, scubascuba3 said:

I predict if Thais get more and more sick of dirty farang they will stop the Retirement visa agent 800k in out method, could be in next 5 years

It's mostly tourists behaving badly, not retirees.

Just now, save the frogs said:

It's mostly tourists behaving badly, not retirees.

Yes but they always think financials is the answer, increase the limits and stop the agents to erase the LOSO farang

4 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Yes but they always think financials is the answer, increase the limits and stop the agents to erase the LOSO farang

Even if they crack down, how dramatic will it be?

They might give everyone 90 days to plunk the 800K in the bank or leave.

And realistically, if you have no savings it's risky to stay here due to medical emergencies.

1 minute ago, save the frogs said:

Even if they crack down, how dramatic will it be?

They might give everyone 90 days to plunk the 800K in the bank or leave.

And realistically, if you have no savings it's risky to stay here due to medical emergencies.

That's ridiculous.

If they crack down all who used agents will be ineligible for their next extension and will need to start over with their visa and extension.

On top of that, if they decide to be hard core (and why wouldn't they) everyone who has used them would INSTANTLY be in violation and subject to prosecution, deportation, b;acklisting, etc.

Be clear -- I don't think they will stop the agents at all.

BUT if they do, it will be an expat earthquake of historic proportons.

Your other point is dumb too.

The 800K is locked for 5 months a year, and then 400K is locked for the rest of the year.

It is NOT am emergency fund!

The moment you go under you're in violation.

6 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

The 800K is locked for 5 months a year, and then 400K is locked for the rest of the year.

It is NOT am emergency fund!

The moment you go under you're in violation.

It kinda is ok for emergencies, use the money and use an agent for the following year or two, it's an emergency after all

13 minutes ago, save the frogs said:

Even if they crack down, how dramatic will it be?

They might give everyone 90 days to plunk the 800K in the bank or leave.

And realistically, if you have no savings it's risky to stay here due to medical emergencies.

They will most likely grandfather the 800k and 65k monthly, another reason for people to go legit before it's too late

1 minute ago, scubascuba3 said:

It kinda is ok for emergencies, use the money and use an agent for the following year or two, it's an emergency after all

Off topic as frog guy made his theory in the context of visa agents being ended.

1 minute ago, scubascuba3 said:

They will most likely grandfather the 800k and 65k monthly, another reason for people to go legit before it's too late

If you're using agents and you want go legit, you need to start over with a new visa.

For those who are very worried that a visa agent crackdown is imminent, that would be a good idea to do that proactively.

Otherwise if they don't and a crackdow happens, their current stay would become instantly in violation.

Edited August 30Aug 30 by Jingthing

Maybe through this discussion we've identified a logical reason why they wouldn't do the crackdown.

The resulting expat earthquake would be momentous to a degree they wouldn't want and also there would be a lot of bad international press suggesting Thailand isn't a stable choice for expat retirement.

50 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

I predict if Thais get more and more sick of dirty farang they will stop the Retirement visa agent 800k in out method, could be in next 5 years

You do realise that the majority of the Agents fee goes directly to immigration coffers, and over a day, week, month, year that is a very substantial amount, so that method will probably never die out.

6 minutes ago, couchpotato said:

You do realise that the majority of the Agents fee goes directly to immigration coffers, and over a day, week, month, year that is a very substantial amount, so that method will probably never die out.

RTP Immigration: Arrest thyself, ain't gonna happen.

6 minutes ago, couchpotato said:

You do realise that the majority of the Agents fee goes directly to immigration coffers, and over a day, week, month, year that is a very substantial amount, so that method will probably never die out.

A good argument of course but if BIG IF a Thai govermemt decides to go after ALL corruption including corruption they might like, well, Katie bar the door!

What is the percentage of expats using an agent compared to those keeping 800,000 in the bank?

34 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

The resulting expat earthquake

If there is such a change, it would depend on the ratio between how many use an agent for the 800K waiver because they choose not to tie up that money in a Thai bank account and those that can barely come up with 15K+ agent waiver fee each year

Edited August 30Aug 30 by JerryM

1 minute ago, emptypockets said:

What is the percentage of expats using an agent compared to those keeping 800,000 in the bank?

Are you also talking about those using the legit income method or only bank method legit vs. bank method agent game?

Either case, I don't know the answer or how we could get the answer. Do you?

I can guess but it wouldn't mean anything.

But my guess is about half.

Edited August 30Aug 30 by Jingthing

43 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

If you're using agents and you want go legit, you need to start over with a new visa.

❌Incorrect, depends, i switched to legit, others have also, already established

Just now, Jingthing said:

Are you also talking about those using the legit income method or only bank method legit vs. bank method agent game?

Either case, I don't know the answer or how we could get the answer? Do you?l

1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

Are you also talking about those using the legit income method or only bank method legit vs. bank method agent game?

Either case, I don't know the answer or how we could get the answer. Do you?

I can guess but it wouldn't mean anything.

But my guess is about half.

I was talking about legit extensions, agent assisted or not, compared to agent funded 800,00 in/out extensions.

I have no idea of the relative numbers, hence my question.

3 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

A good argument of course but if BIG IF a Thai govermemt decides to go after ALL corruption including corruption they might like, well, Katie bar the door!

More chance of barring gay visitors during Mardi Gras season!...

How visible to IO investigators 'cracking down' are agent assisted extensions? Are they clearly identified from all other types, how are they recorded, the notations in passports are identical.!!

19 minutes ago, couchpotato said:

You do realise that the majority of the Agents fee goes directly to immigration coffers, and over a day, week, month, year that is a very substantial amount, so that method will probably never die out.

Yes that's the theory people keep repeating

3 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

Are you also talking about those using the legit income method or only bank method legit vs. bank method agent game?

Either case, I don't know the answer or how we could get the answer. Do you?

I can guess but it wouldn't mean anything.

But my guess is about half.

Perhaps an anonymous poll might give an idea of the relative numbers.

2 minutes ago, emptypockets said:

Perhaps an anonymous poll might give an idea of the relative numbers.

I wouldn't give much worth to polls here.

4 minutes ago, Olmate said:

More chance of barring gay visitors during Mardi Gras season!...

How visible to IO investigators 'cracking down' are agent assisted extensions? Are they clearly identified from all other types, how are they recorded, the notations in passports are identical.!!

If you use an agent and you decide to stop using them you will not be abe to show the needed bank record to get your next extension.

So immigration knows which is which, 100 percent.

Edited August 30Aug 30 by Jingthing

1 hour ago, Jingthing said:

Here we go 2.0.

There has been a torrent of gloom and doom predictions that based on the surprising massive crackdown on foreigners using lawyer directed nominee structures for real estate deals, that it's only logical that a crackdown on visa agents will be next.

There is undeniable logic behind that. It can be argued the visa agent schemes are "illegal" or involve "corruption" and all that jazz.

I get all that but I'm here to stick my neck out and predict that no matter how logical it sounds to crack down on visa agent schemes, it will NOT happen either soon related to the land crackdown or even within the next 5 years.

Not saying never of course.

Unlike my bold prediction about financial requirements for O and OA based retirement visas NOT going up within 5 years, I don't have much in the way ofl logical arguments for this prediction. This is more of a gut feeling.

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You’re the only one losing sleep over it.

Those who have the funds have absolutely nothing to worry about.

Just now, HolmesEquivelant said:

You’re the only one losing sleep over it.

Those who have the funds have absolutely nothing to worry about.

Another one of your golden dufus ad hominem posts.

Why the puck would I be losing sleep over this, dude?
I've never used an agent.

It seems you think my topics on these matters have no value.

Fine!

Easy to sort.

Do not read them. Do not post on them.

You're welcome.

Edited August 30Aug 30 by Jingthing

2 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

If you use an agent and you decide to stop using them you will not be abe to shwo the needed bank record to get your next extension.

So immigration knows which is which, 100 percent.

That may be the case when re applying but when finding them amongst the 'legit' 800k ones, how are they recorded differently on the pport. Ans. They are noted the same!

11 minutes ago, Olmate said:

How visible to IO investigators 'cracking down' are agent assisted extensions? Are they clearly identified from all other types, how are they recorded, the notations in passports are identical.!!

The 6JAN 2021 Washington DC bomber (bombs placed but didn't explode) was caught after 5 years. All the raw information had been obtained early on but it took programs with so much more horsepower to link like the Home Depot receipts, Cell phone data, shoes and backpack, license plate video, chemical purchases, etc. etc. which is how or they finally found the guy.