Assuming EU will not budge, Britain ramps up preparations for no-deal Brexit

[Chomper Higgot]

5 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

The reasons for the movement from 70 to 50 are well know and Thailand has corrected itself from the 1997 crisis.

 

The reasons movement from 50 to 42 are well know as the Brexit factor. 42 to 38 is down to Thai Baht strength as evidenced with falls in the USD, AUD, EUR etc.

 

The fall to 42 was deemed by those well known financial commentators to be due to the uncertainty surrounding a hard Brexit. Therefore, a No Deal Brexit should already be factored.

 

All the above is a load of b0llocks, as we all know that that uncertainty created only gives the platform for speculators to make money out of currency volatility..... they make bugger all in a stable environment.

 

The fact remains that the average GBP/EUR exchange rate over the last 40 years has been 50.17 and there is no economic reason why that rate will not be reached again. For most expats who have been here any length of time a rate of GBP/THB 50 is the benchmark. I have said previously that my initial Thailand budget was based on 65.

 

 

Goodluck with the average exchange rate over 40years when you next make a transaction from £to Bht

 

You really don't want to deal with the logic that a fall in the £/Bht exchange rate increases financial hardship for expats reliant upon income in Sterling. 

 

The UK shedding market access is an economic consideration you, once again fail to take into account. 

 

 

 

[Jip99]

2 minutes ago, tomazbodner said:

  They want to either keep UK in EU or penalise them as badly as they can if they insist on leaving.

 

 

 

... and until that puerile attitude from our 'friendly trading neighbours' changes there will be no change to the unacceptable deal currently on the table.

 

 

Where the change of PM has changed things is rather than bending over and accepting a 'take it or leave it' dictat from the EU, he has turned round and said change the deal or we have No Deal.

 

As much as I would prefer to leave with a deal (for the sake of all sides) I am warming to the prospect of No Deal, led by a PM, and cabinet, who is passionate and enthusiastic about Brexit. It is no surprise that Johnson's, and the Tory party, ratings have gone up.

[Jip99]

2 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Goodluck with the average exchange rate over 40years when you next make a transaction from £to Bht

 

You really don't want to deal with the logic that a fall in the £/Bht exchange rate increases financial hardship for expats reliant upon income in Sterling. 

 

The UK shedding market access is an economic consideration you, once again fail to take into account. 

 

 

 

 

That consideration has already been factored in.

 

 

The current rate, as far as I am concerned, simply gives me the opportunity to spend more time in the UK, Europe and elsewhere. It means I am spending less time/capital in Thailand but I am fortunate in being able to turn that into a positive.

[evadgib]

16 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I think the UK could now within the EU control that point of entry as much as possible against illegal migrants.

It wont be easier for the UK if their are out of the EU.

It won't be any harder than it is now.

[tomacht8]

1 hour ago, vogie said:

But everything in the EU garden will be fine and dandy? It just mesmerises me why you all the time are so negative to the UK, but always play down the effect it will have on the EU. I can only re-iterate that if the EU won't renegotiate on a deal there is very little Boris or anyone else in the UK can do.

To quote Sir Christopher Meyer former Ambassador to the US "Those that abhor the Johnson administration have only themselves to blame. Boris as the PM is the creation of the obdurate 3 year remainer rear guard action to thwart the referendum result and the EUs insistence - still - on an unratifiable withdrawal agreement."

I am not negative to the UK.

It is only the Brexit chaos I criticize.

That the Brexit, as he has been handled since 3 years, is bad for the people of the UK and the EU, is out of the question.

 

Brexit has become an ideological playground for politicians and the media.

As you can see nicely in all threads here, people are incited against each other.

Rational arguments and facts no longer permeate in the discussion.

 

And the economic consequences will be painful for many (uk + eu).

 

And what's with ur own people?

I mean the 48, xx%

I do not see that Brexit should lead to an improvement in the living conditions of the UK population.

There is simply no logical, rationally-realistic, analytic proof. There is not even a brexitplan until today.

 

 

[Laughing Gravy]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Do you remember why the EU and the UK agreed on the backstop?

They want to avoid a border in Ireland.

And why do they want to avoid that border?

Because they want peace and not a repetition of violence.

Do you agree with this?

So what do you suggest to avoid that border and keep the peace?

And just in case you think about technical solutions which don't exist: Please give us a hint what those solutions will be and when they will exist.

And then there is of course the idea that Northern Ireland stays in the EU market and the border is in the sea like it was agreed originally. That makes a lot of sense to me.

You are believing the hype about the backstop. The UK won't build a border and have said countless times. the EU with Irelands consent are using the backstop and the threat of terrorism, to keep the UK in the customs union and single market.

Well it may make sense for you to keep  the UK or even part of the UK stitched to the EU, but we had a referendum and the majority voted to leave the EU and not in name only.

[Laughing Gravy]

59 minutes ago, tomazbodner said:

Boris' assumptions are probably correct. Can't see a situation where EU gave some special deal to UK. It would give exact opposite message to anyone else who might think of leaving. They want to either keep UK in EU or penalise them as badly as they can if they insist on leaving.

I agree with you and what a wonderful organisation that is being championed as a democratic, wonderful, come and join us, forward thinking entity. The EU is nothing like that, it is a bully, bureaucratic and spiteful organisation.

 

If there is one great thing to come from the UK's referendum on leaving is more and more people know what the EU is really like.  People research and read about, when they never did before.  If for nothing else the lies and deceit from the EU, are more transparent than ever. I have said it before and even Junker has said it, if other EU members were given an in out referendum, more would leave.

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, Sticky Wicket said:

The GFA agreement has nothing to do with Brexit, it's a red herring .

There will never be a hard border anyway, again a load of BS to push a narrative.

The only place in which it alludes to infrastructure at the border is in the section on security.

During the Troubles there were heavily fortified army barracks, police stations and watchtowers along the border. They were frequently attacked by Republican paramilitaries.

Part of the peace deal involved the UK government agreeing to a process of removing those installations in what became known as "demilitarisation".

The agreement states that "the development of a peaceful environment... can and should mean a normalisation of security arrangements and practices."

The government committed to "as early a return as possible to normal security arrangements in Northern Ireland, consistent with the level of threat".

That included "the removal of security installations". That is as far as the text goes.

Exactly. The backstop was created as a method to keep us locked in and a bargaining chip for the subsequent trade deal, Macron admitted he would use it as leverage to have access to UK waters. It was so blatant that even the Guardian reported it.

 

 

It also raised the potential for the EU to prize NI from the UK and take it under the wing of the EU. In a worst case scenario, it would give the EU the option of removing it as a last minute 'concession' to the UK to 'get the deal done' when in reality it is solving a problem that never existed.

 

Even if there are some spot checks of goods at the border for the purpose of collecting tariffs, there will be no armed military presence.

 

Personally I don't believe removing the backstop is enough. They need to reduce the financial settlement by a huge amount (especially since we will have been paying the membership fees for an extra 7 months due to the extension) and make some other concessions before we could agree to the WA. I'd rather go No Deal and then start talks about the trade deal once we're 100% out. Invite them to London, remind them of their trade surplus with us, their potential continued access to UK fishing waters and see whether they want to have a sensible discussion. 

[Joinaman]

2 hours ago, stephenterry said:

And so the cost of Brexit goes up and up - and guess who is going to pay for it? It's certainly not the fat cat politicians who have already been offered a higher tax relief by Johnson in his leadership campaign or billionaire tax exiles funding the Tory party, or emerging markets hedge fund chairs, like Mogg.

 

No, it's the man in the street. 

and the cost of staying in the EU has continued to rise every year too, who pays for that ?

The man in the street 

 

[luckyluke]

31 minutes ago, Laughing Gravy said:

if other EU members were given an in out referendum, more would leave.

Possibly, but therefore there will have to be tangible proves for the voting citizens that their daily life will improve.

 

As being in or out the European Union is of no importance for the common people.

 

Only a pure materialistic change will have an impact on them.

 

I think a big difference with the U.K., where being only "English" and not part anymore of an union, is already considered as an  achievement.

 

I suppose being once an empire has some influence in this  matter.

 

France has something similar, they consider themselves and the French language/culture as something exceptional, as it was the case a long time ago.

 

Edited July 29, 2019 by luckyluke

[Loiner]

They have been making No Deal preparations for the past year, to my knowledge. After a brief respite in April, preparation are ongoing and yes they have been ramped up.
That the government does not publicise all its actions is no surprise. They don’t have to tell the Remainers everything that is going on.


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[Baerboxer]

5 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

For an outsider (I am EU citizen living in Thailand) it's amazing how much support hard Brexit has. 

I understand that lots of people voted for the idea of being independent from the EU 3 years ago. But what was called Brexit at that time has, as far as I see, little resemblance with what it is now.

It seems 3 years ago many UK citizens thought it will give more control to their own government. And they thought they will soon make some trading agreements with the EU and not much will change. Politicians and aligned newspapers told them everything will be fine and easy. Yes, I understand why people voted for that idea.

But now? Everybody had 3 years to learn about lots of details. And everybody should have learned that most of what the politicians promised is impossible. Cake and eating it with lots of cherries while the unicorns run around in the garden is just not possible. It's not that the EU holds those unicorns back, they just don't exist and nobody will make them appear.

But looking and Boris and his supporters now they still behave like all would be fine if the EU would just release those unicorns.

Why it not obvious for everybody that No Deal makes no sense at all? Because if the UK leaves in October with no deal what will happen in November? People will frantically try to make deals - but now under more difficult conditions.

 

I know we are all stubborn from time to time and realizing that our decision was not perfect and changing it is sometimes difficult. But it's amazing how far that goes in the UK. Follow me over the cliff and somehow there is a bright future after that... ?

 

If you use social media sites and were a member of many British sites you'd see, more or less, what you post being supported.

 

It's strange how, as more real information as come out, more complexities, more consequences, people haven't analysed this. They seem to have focused and become fixated on the failure of their parliament to deliver Brexit, whatever Brexit might look like. It's now become even more some universal panacea that will right all wrongs!

 

Yes, the EU has looked smug at times; and the recent selection process of new senior leaders looks somewhat unsavory which hasn't helped. But the focus seems inwards.

 

People still show an ignorance of EU procedures, the UK constitution and government procedures, finance, economics and world trade practices. Despite more information being readily available.

 

It's quite scary that the divisiveness seems to be more polarized with more moderate people being sucked to one extreme or the other and a "bloody mindedness" replacing rational thinking.

[vogie]

1 hour ago, tomacht8 said:

I am not negative to the UK.

It is only the Brexit chaos I criticize.

That the Brexit, as he has been handled since 3 years, is bad for the people of the UK and the EU, is out of the question.

 

Brexit has become an ideological playground for politicians and the media.

As you can see nicely in all threads here, people are incited against each other.

Rational arguments and facts no longer permeate in the discussion.

 

And the economic consequences will be painful for many (uk + eu).

 

And what's with ur own people?

I mean the 48, xx%

I do not see that Brexit should lead to an improvement in the living conditions of the UK population.

There is simply no logical, rationally-realistic, analytic proof. There is not even a brexitplan until today.

 

 

I think it would be fairer to say Thomach that you are never negative to the EU, you try and find snippets of information that is indeed negative to the UK. But if we Brits could have visualised what the EU was going to change into over the years, even George Orwell wouldn't have believed it.

Nobody can argue the fact that the last 3 years have been handled extremely badly and even amateurish, but there is a new kid on the block now and hopefully he can restore some pride back into our country, Mrs May did not do herself or our country any favours by her actions and her lies.

 

"And the economic consequences will be painful for many (uk + eu)."

Quite possible, maybe probable, it is too early to tell, but there is one thing certain as sure as eggs are eggs is that there is only one side that can do anything about it, however it would appear that Monsieur Barnier is not open to compromise and has dug his heels in, so there is nothing the UK can do about it is there, only prepare for a no deal.

 

And what's with ur own people?

I mean the 48, xx%

I think if the roles were reversed and it was the remainers that ended up on 52%, do you think they would be saying 'what can we give the leavers as a bit of Brexit, afterall they did get 48%,' somehow I suspect there would be nothing on offer.

 

Edited July 29, 2019 by vogie

[Sujo]

GB is leaving. Why should the EU care about any deal at all.

[OneMoreFarang]

1 hour ago, Sujo said:

GB is leaving. Why should the EU care about any deal at all.

Maybe you missed it but the UK is still on the map near the EU. They will have to work together and trade together and people will cross borders. All this has to be regulated somehow. And for many details it is in the best interests of both sides to work friendly together.

Now there are many regulations as part of the EU. If the UK leaves without a deal all these regulations are gone and replaces with nothing. Does that make any sense?

But then, all of this was discussed in the last couple of years and if someone still does not see a reason why the EU should care then there might be other reasons. 

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, Sujo said:

GB is leaving. Why should the EU care about any deal at all.

A 64 Billion pound trade surplus in 2018. That's a pretty good reason to want to continue trading as smoothly as possible.

[Sujo]

8 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

A 64 Billion pound trade surplus in 2018. That's a pretty good reason to want to continue trading as smoothly as possible.

And continue to trade on their own terms. Why would they care what UK wants.

[phantomfiddler]

Go for it, Boris ! Our Donald will surely throw a lot of business towards U.K. ????

[flossie35]

7 hours ago, vogie said:

You have made some good points but the remainers have tried to thwart any kind of a Brexit, they could have voted for Mrs Mays deal which was Brexit in name only and wasn't really leaving the EU in its true sense. Infact they wanted to ignore the decision what our country voted for, they wanted it their way or no way, now it might come back to haunt them if we crash out without a deal.

There was no decision; the referendum advised, Parliament decides. Why should they decide to take bad advice?

[flossie35]

A waste of money for something that won't happen. There is no such thing as a good brexit. Time people woke up.

[vogie]

1 minute ago, flossie35 said:

There was no decision; the referendum advised, Parliament decides. Why should they decide to take bad advice?

There was indeed a decision, the majority of parliament voted to leave the EU by voting for Art50.

Parliament did decide.

[puipuitom]

7 hours ago, vogie said:

You have made some good points but the remainers have tried to thwart any kind of a Brexit, they could have voted for Mrs Mays deal which was Brexit in name only and wasn't really leaving the EU in its true sense. Infact they wanted to ignore the decision what our country voted for, they wanted it their way or no way, now it might come back to haunt them if we crash out without a deal.

So, come with your text of a "divorse" treaty then… 

Please tell me, "the decision what our country voted for ". A No deal Brexit, or a Norway/Swiss agreement, a Canada Agreement or ? Which form of "leave"? 

Leave a club = leave a club. No longer use the facilities ( RASFF, EFSA, EMA, SANTE, ENVI, EPSCO and a LOT of other mutual things), outside = no longer import duty free access.

Leave the club in a fight, even do NOT pay your contribution for the period you agreed for spendings to a lot of things ( no deal)… then.. do NOT be surprised when all "deals / agreements etc" from the past are no longer valid. Like.. UK driver licence, Insurance papers, FSA documents etc.. as.. no way to ho to the EU court.

[transam]

8 minutes ago, flossie35 said:

There was no decision; the referendum advised, Parliament decides. Why should they decide to take bad advice?

Not another posting from the EU that knows nothing......????

[vogie]

3 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

So, come with your text of a "divorse" treaty then… 

Please tell me, "the decision what our country voted for ". A No deal Brexit, or a Norway/Swiss agreement, a Canada Agreement or ? Which form of "leave"? 

Leave a club = leave a club. No longer use the facilities ( RASFF, EFSA, EMA, SANTE, ENVI, EPSCO and a LOT of other mutual things), outside = no longer import duty free access.

Leave the club in a fight, even do NOT pay your contribution for the period you agreed for spendings to a lot of things ( no deal)… then.. do NOT be surprised when all "deals / agreements etc" from the past are no longer valid. Like.. UK driver licence, Insurance papers, FSA documents etc.. as.. no way to ho to the EU court.

I am going to have to sleep on that one puipuitom, hopefully I'll get devine intervention during my slumbers.

[transam]

2 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

So, come with your text of a "divorse" treaty then… 

Please tell me, "the decision what our country voted for ". A No deal Brexit, or a Norway/Swiss agreement, a Canada Agreement or ? Which form of "leave"? 

Leave a club = leave a club. No longer use the facilities ( RASFF, EFSA, EMA, SANTE, ENVI, EPSCO and a LOT of other mutual things), outside = no longer import duty free access.

Leave the club in a fight, even do NOT pay your contribution for the period you agreed for spendings to a lot of things ( no deal)… then.. do NOT be surprised when all "deals / agreements etc" from the past are no longer valid. Like.. UK driver licence, Insurance papers, FSA documents etc.. as.. no way to ho to the EU court.

You not being a Brit makes me wonder why you are getting hot under the collar.

 

I know you lot will be losing 13% of the EU income but I think it a bit early that you are worrying when you don't even know how much extra you may have to pay...

Chill out, relax.....

[OneMoreFarang]

4 hours ago, tomazbodner said:

Boris' assumptions are probably correct. Can't see a situation where EU gave some special deal to UK. It would give exact opposite message to anyone else who might think of leaving. They want to either keep UK in EU or penalise them as badly as they can if they insist on leaving.

I think it's obvious that the EU have their laws and rules and they stick to them. Nobody is penalized and nobody gets something extra. It does not make any sense for the EU to change their rules to make some UK politicians happy and at the same time make plots of people inside the EU unhappy.

The EU told the UK from the very beginning which options exist. Now, years later the same options still exist. I don't think the EU changed anything significant in the last years. No exceptions for anyone. But the UK politicians somehow pretend the EU makes it difficult for them. Amazing.

[puipuitom]

7 hours ago, vogie said:

Many people would argue that honouring what the country voted for is not extreme, I'm sure Boris would love to leave with a deal that is suitable to everyone, but the EU keeps on insisting that the only deal available is Mrs Mays deal and that deal was a dead duck then and now is still a dead duck.

A 'No Deal' has been forced on the UK by remainers who don't believe in democracy and the EU who are totally instransigent to the delemma, I wonder how many Labour MPs and some Tory MPs had wished they had voted for Mays deal now, well it looks like that ship has sailed. You make your bed you lie in it.

 

"EU keeps on insisting that the only deal available is Mrs Mays deal  " NO, the only deal - after nearly 2 1/2 years negotiations, and be sure NOT ONLY with May, but with a LOT of her advisers - BOTH could live with , it seemed then.

Till now the EU did not see any proposal from the UK, as only: no, no, no, no, no.

One of the hardest things: an open border between N and S Ireland as agreed by the British in the Good Friday Agreement, just 20 years ago. The EU is a Union of nations, in which each member state has a veto right. Eire will veto a hard border...

The English do not give a damn about the situation in their European colonies: Scotland, N.Ireland and Gibraltar ( 96 % remain). A good statesman(woman) SHOULD try the utmost to satisfy more-or-less the interests of as many as possible citizens but in the UK it is: My party was the biggest in a constituency, so we get the seat and the others nothing. 50% + 1 constituency = dictatorship over the country.

Remind: 48,11% voted for ONE option: Remain, 51,88% voted for a range of possible "Leaves."

[vogie]

2 minutes ago, puipuitom said:

"EU keeps on insisting that the only deal available is Mrs Mays deal  " NO, the only deal - after nearly 2 1/2 years negotiations, and be sure NOT ONLY with May, but with a LOT of her advisers - BOTH could live with , it seemed then.

 

Till now the EU did not see any proposal from the UK, as only: no, no, no, no, no.

 

One of the hardest things: an open border between N and S Ireland as agreed by the British in the Good Friday Agreement, just 20 years ago. The EU is a Union of nations, in which each member state has a veto right. Eire will veto a hard border...

 

The English do not give a damn about the situation in their European colonies: Scotland, N.Ireland and Gibraltar ( 96 % remain). A good statesman(woman) SHOULD try the utmost to satisfy more-or-less the interests of as many as possible citizens but in the UK it is: My party was the biggest in a constituency, so we get the seat and the others nothing. 50% + 1 constituency = dictatorship over the country.

Remind: 48,11% voted for ONE option: Remain, 51,88% voted for a range of possible "Leaves."

 

Is this a rant-o-thon?

[puipuitom]

7 hours ago, Laughing Gravy said:

the people of the UK have never really embraced the EU and it never will.

Exactly as Charles de Gaulle in 1963 had as reason to block the UK from entering the EEC

[stephenterry]

5 hours ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

The reasons for the movement from 70 to 50 are well know and Thailand has corrected itself from the 1997 crisis.

 

The reasons movement from 50 to 42 are well know as the Brexit factor. 42 to 38 is down to Thai Baht strength as evidenced with falls in the USD, AUD, EUR etc.

 

The fall to 42 was deemed by those well known financial commentators to be due to the uncertainty surrounding a hard Brexit. Therefore, a No Deal Brexit should already be factored.

 

All the above is a load of b0llocks, as we all know that that uncertainty created only gives the platform for speculators to make money out of currency volatility..... they make bugger all in a stable environment.

 

The fact remains that the average GBP/EUR exchange rate over the last 40 years has been 50.17 and there is no economic reason why that rate will not be reached again. For most expats who have been here any length of time a rate of GBP/THB 50 is the benchmark. I have said previously that my initial Thailand budget was based on 65.

 

 

You live in a fantasy land.  Brexit is the sole cause of the pound falling against most currencies, and would continue to do so if an expletive 'no deal' brexit occurs. To think otherwise is fiction.