‘Won’t be easy’, but DITP believes exports will rise

By The Nation

 

 

The Department of International Trade Promotion (DITP) is expecting exports to improve in the third and fourth quarters of the year, on target to meet the government’s 3 per cent growth goal, but it’s also prepared to adjust its trade-show strategies.

 

DIPT director-general Banjongjit Angsusing said after a meeting with the Thai Chamber of Commerce, Federation of Thai Industries and private operators on Friday (Aug. 23) that the export situation was likely to improve in the balance of the year, especially for key products such as rice, sugar, rubber and electronic components.

 

“The private sector expects exports to shrink by 0.9 per cent compared to last year,” she said, “but the DIPT will maintain the 3 per cent target as our working goal until year-end.”

 

Banjongjit said the department included that target in a report to the Cabinet last Tuesday (Aug. 20) and project 3.5 per cent growth for 2020.

 

She said private entrepreneurs had during the meeting pointed out other issues, such as the impact of the stronger baht on exports, measures to cope with the US-China trade war and complications in import procedures, particularly in China and India.

 

“The DIPT will study these issues carefully and formulate suitable measures as soon as possible,” she said.

 

As for current measures to promote exports, she said the focus is on completing negotiations on trade pacts such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and free-trade agreements with Britain and the European Union.

 

“The DIPT will also invite 20 local business councils to discuss plans to expand trade opportunities in alternative markets such as India and the Philippines,” Banjongjit said.

 

Achieving the 3 per cent growth target won’t be easy, she acknowledged. “We have to push at least US$23 billion worth of exports per month. It’s hard but not impossible. We’re keeping the original target intact so that we stay motivated."

 

“The DIPT is currently hosting around 10 trade shows per year,” she said. “We may have to reduce the number and focus instead on stimulus packages for specific product groups.”

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30375283

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-08-25

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In the army they use to say "Hope is not a strategy"

Where 2 big dogs are fighting the third one can steal the bone...

5 hours ago, rooster59 said:

“The DIPT will study these issues carefully and formulate suitable measures as soon as possible,” she said.

Pretty sure this will involve the setting up of a committee with a 5 year plan to improve exports for 2019

I’ll take that bet—exports will shrink in 2nd half of 2019.  Where do I lay down the wager—at Bank of Thailand?  They’re too intoxicated with ChiCom hot money inflows to notice anything...

 

8 hours ago, rooster59 said:

“The private sector expects exports to shrink by 0.9 per cent compared to last year,” she said, “but the DIPT will maintain the 3 per cent target as our working goal until year-end.”

This statement is a little disconcerting from an academic viewpoint.

8 hours ago, rooster59 said:

the department included that target in a report to the Cabinet last Tuesday (Aug. 20) and project 3.5 per cent growth for 2020.

The 3% target is the average GDP growth rate. It's not synonymous with the export growth rate.

For example, the Standard Chartered Bank lowered its 2019 GDP growth forecast for Thailand to 3.0% from 3.3%. https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30375193

 

In July 2019, Thai exports to the US rose 9.8%. In 2018 exports to the US accounted for 11.1% of total exports, compared to 12% to China. https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30375162

The degree of impact on a nation's GDP growth rate by a nation's exports depends on the contribution of a nation's net trade balance (net of export value and import value). 

 

Quote

The Department of International Trade Promotion (DITP) is expecting exports to improve in the third and fourth quarters of the year, on target to meet the government’s 3 per cent growth goal, but it’s also prepared to adjust its trade-show strategies.

A govt spokes person will always present a positive outlook, but usually with a "however type" provision thrown in.  Where the spokes person said, ".....but it's also prepared to adjust its trade-show strategies" is the however provision for exports dropping below 3%.