Thailand further trims 2019 arrivals forecast while tourism confidence index holds steady

By TTG Asia

 

Thailand’s quarterly tourism confidence index in 2Q2019 held steady at 100 from its 1Q prediction, and is expected to remain at 100 in 3Q2019

 

Thailand’s quarterly tourism confidence index in 2Q2019 held steady at 100 from its 1Q prediction, and is expected to remain at 100 in the third quarter of this year, a recent study found.

 

The survey, which is a collaboration between the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), Tourism Council of Thailand and Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Economics, is based on responses from over 600 tourism operators and government officials from related agencies. It also interviewed 350 international and 350 domestic tourists, respectively.

 

The findings in the second quarter of this year highlighted both the micro and macro factors affecting Thailand’s tourism industry: The slowdown of the world economy as well as Thailand’s economic stagnation; the Thai government’s stimulus and tax reduction scheme; extension on the visa-arrival fee waiver for citizens of 20 nations for another six months until October 2019, and the strength of the Thai baht to a weakening US dollar combined with rising inflation.

 

Full story: https://www.ttgasia.com/2019/08/26/thailand-further-trims-2019-arrivals-forecast-while-tourism-confidence-index-holds-steady/

 

-- © Copyright TT ASIA 2019-08-26

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Where are they getting their figures? Chiang Mai is like a ghost town when it comes to visitors.  

13 minutes ago, webfact said:

It also interviewed 350 international  tourists.

 

Out of how many gazillion ? 

12 minutes ago, Just1Voice said:

Where are they getting their figures? Chiang Mai is like a ghost town when it comes to visitors.  

We are currently on the gulf side on an island and the only ones in the whole resort, seems to be a common pattern. 

I've just drove around Rawai and Nai Harn beaches it's dead I dont know what the rest of Phuket is like

Is 100 the number of tourists they are expecting?

24 minutes ago, webfact said:

interviewed 350 international

Questions

1. Do you like Thailand a lot or love Thailand?

2. Is Thailand safe or very safe?

3. Will you return this year or next year?

 

22 minutes ago, TeaMonkey said:

Is 100 the number of tourists they are expecting?

To be fair, that includes domestic tourists too.

35 minutes ago, RichardColeman said:

Out of how many gazillion ? 

I think that maybe all that's here at the moment hence the revision of their predictions.????????

Are tourists that just use BKK as a transit point without leaving the airport or transferring to DMK before travelling on to neighbouring countries counted in these tourist arrival figures?

2 minutes ago, sn1per said:

Are tourists that just use BKK as a transit point without leaving the airport or transferring to DMK before travelling on to neighbouring countries counted in these tourist arrival figures?

If you want a guess, if they completed an arrival card and it was collected as they passed through Immigration then they're counted as an arrival

2 hours ago, Just1Voice said:

Where are they getting their figures? Chiang Mai is like a ghost town when it comes to visitors.  

And I am enjoying every minute of no tourists in CNX.

2 hours ago, Just1Voice said:

Where are they getting their figures? Chiang Mai is like a ghost town when it comes to visitors.  

Same as Pattaya. Never in the last 13 years seen so few tourists. And the Hotelliers are the same. No tourist come here anymore. Thai Baht way too strong. And all the markets complaining, all shops complaining, all Restaurants complaining, and the hotels are complaining, so where do they hide? Out in the Bay, in Underwater World, cause they are not in the town.

1 hour ago, sn1per said:

Are tourists that just use BKK as a transit point without leaving the airport or transferring to DMK before travelling on to neighbouring countries counted in these tourist arrival figures?

Oh Yes. They are. If they land at 23.45 and go to final destination at 00.15, they are tourist, as Thailand count them for staying 2, two days. So absolutely tourists. According to TAT.

Koh Samui is the same - almost zero tourists.  We have a small Resort and for the first time in 14 years, we have a two week gap of no Tourists at all.  Sadly I have become very sceptical of numbers quoted by TAT over the years, which tend to be contradicted by other Thai Agencies shortly after they publish their figures.

TAT: "We put the 'con' in confidence!"

I was in Pattaya for a couple of days 3 weeks ago.  Almost dead! Apart from a coupled of grizzled old farang expats, I only saw a few Chinese/Asian couples.  Most foreign tourists were Russian families, and not many of them....

2 minutes ago, simon43 said:

I was in Pattaya for a couple of days 3 weeks ago.  Almost dead! Apart from a coupled of grizzled old farang expats, I only saw a few Chinese/Asian couples.  Most foreign tourists were Russian families, and not many of them....

Sounds like the good old low season years ago, except the beer bars are now like homestays for the elderly. I used to like being in Patts in the good old low season days when farangs were kings. 

20 minutes ago, robertson468 said:

Koh Samui is the same - almost zero tourists.  We have a small Resort and for the first time in 14 years, we have a two week gap of no Tourists at all.  Sadly I have become very sceptical of numbers quoted by TAT over the years, which tend to be contradicted by other Thai Agencies shortly after they publish their figures.

 

But how can all these establishments survive ?

28 minutes ago, robertson468 said:

Sadly I have become very sceptical of numbers quoted by TAT over the years, which tend to be contradicted by other Thai Agencies shortly after they publish their figures.

In the other thread I looked into TAT's figures and found out they are directly from immigration's arrivals summed for visa types and exemptions that might be considered "tourist". That includes every entry, including transits to other regional airlines. There's no info available of how many of them actually stay overnight. So yes the figures are bound to be somewhat on the high side, but they are based on actual data. 

 

The problem now is Chinese are herded to designated milking spots like King Power and local small scale sellers get nada.

Edited August 26, 20196 yr by DrTuner

Top three reasons tourism is sinking:

1.  An overpriced Baht.

2. A very overpriced Baht

3. An extremely overpriced Baht.

 

Please send this note to Bank of Thailand, so they can stop with the hot money inflows.

9 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Top three reasons tourism is sinking:

1.  An overpriced Baht.

2. A very overpriced Baht

3. An extremely overpriced Baht.

 

Please send this note to Bank of Thailand, so they can stop with the hot money inflows.

I dunno I'm always skeptical about how much fx affects the average tourist.

 

For sure, some have experienced wild drops, British Pound and Aussie Dollar. But for most it just bounces around, USD is generally around 30-33 for an example.

 

I think the biggest reason for the decline is social media. 

 

The scams, the garbage, the overpricing, etc now gets a lot of exposure, where in the past all people saw were the pictures of pristine beaches in travel mags.

 

Nowadays people share their real life experiences of their travel in real time, and in Thailands case, not always pretty

1 minute ago, GinBoy2 said:

I dunno I'm always skeptical about how much fx affects the average tourist.

 

For sure, some have experienced wild drops, British Pound and Aussie Dollar. But for most it just bounces around, USD is generally around 30-33 for an example.

 

I think the biggest reason for the decline is social media. 

 

The scams, the garbage, the overpricing, etc now gets a lot of exposure, where in the past all people saw were the pictures of pristine beaches in travel mags.

 

Nowadays people share their real life experiences of their travel in real time, and in Thailands case, not always pretty

Plus newspaper stories in various countries listing Thailand at or near the top of countries where their nationals suffer fatal accidents

3 minutes ago, ThaiBunny said:

Plus newspaper stories in various countries listing Thailand at or near the top of countries where their nationals suffer fatal accidents

And having military running the country with mock democracy isn't exactly inviting either. Violence could erupt at moment's notice once the Thai kettle boils over.

4 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Out of how many gazillion ? 

If the sample was evenly spread among the "kinds" of international tourists...ie not all Chinese or all European... the survey may be accurate. I kinda doubt their sample was all that even. 

Maybe they all went to HuaHin?

It also interviewed 350 international tourists that turned out to be all they could find from what I'm seeing???? 

 

 

Very easy ,if they want tourists tell IO's  at airport to be nice mannered and stop denying tourist's entry. Don't say you been here to many times get out ect

Suppose you had to plan for a vacation, in SE Asia.  You checked hotel prices, restaurant prices, transportation, beer and entertainment--based on currency rates.  You found a Thai vacation would cost 30% more than Vietnam.  Put another way your budget would allow 11 days in Thailand or 14 days in Vietnam.  No brainer--Vietnam wins.  Thailand loses big.

50 minutes ago, ThaiBunny said:

Plus newspaper stories in various countries listing Thailand at or near the top of countries where their nationals suffer fatal accidents

That one in Phuket is all over the English papers