Thailand says economy slowing but no recession, stimulus to lift growth

By Kitiphong Thaichareon, Orathai Sriring

 

FILE PHOTO: Uttama Savanayana, the Palang Pracharat Party leader, talks to reporters during a press conference in Bangkok, Thailand June 4, 2019. REUTERS/Soe Zeya Tun

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand’s economy is just slowing but not in a recession yet and recently announced government stimulus measures should help lift growth to 3% this year, the country’s finance minister said on Wednesday.

 

Southeast Asia's second-largest economy expanded only 2.3% in the second quarter, the weakest annual pace in nearly five years, as its exports, a key growth driver, tumbled amid rising trade tensions and a strong currency THB=TH. The baht is the best performing currency in Asia, up 6.4% against the dollar so far this year.

 

The government last month announced the $10 billion stimulus package that will include support for farmers and tourism in a bid to boost domestic activity.

 

“I can confirm that Thailand’s economy has not slipped into a recession, as we are still growing but at a slower pace,” Uttama Savanayana told reporters.

 

In addition to the stimulus package, the government will speed up investment by state firms to more than 300 billion baht ($9.80 billion) as targeted for the current fiscal year to September, he said. The investment budget of state firms was expected to rise by at least 10% for the next fiscal year, he added.

 

On Wednesday, a joint committee of banking, commerce and industry said it was worried about the trade-reliant economy, which lacks “supportive factors” and could grow less than its forecast 2.9%-3.3% this year.

 

The central bank said last week that the economy might grow less than 3% this year, after 4.1% growth last year.

 

Uttama said he was not worried about high household debt levels as some loans were for businesses and still generating income, while some others were secured ones.

 

“But we are not complacent,” he said. “We will closely monitor it although it’s not a concern yet”.

 

At the end of March, Thailand’s household debt was nearly 13 trillion baht (346.04 billion pounds), or equivalent to 78.7% of gross domestic product (GDP), among the highest in Asia, and up from 53.5% in early 2009.

 

High debt has been a drag on private consumption, which makes up half of the economy, and a concern for the central bank.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-09-04

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Of course always denying it as a first reaction. We will see later as we always do.

Yep, let's put this up 6 months later and see if it's true.

For a developing country like Thailand, a meager growth rate of only 2.3% got to be the next-"best" thing to a recession.

 

Wonder, whether Thailand is slowly becoming the "sick man" of Asia...

Edited September 4, 20196 yr by StayinThailand2much

Casino's ,what are you waiting for..

Edited September 4, 20196 yr by mok199

Buckle up guys!

 

 

 

1 hour ago, snoop1130 said:

Thailand says economy slowing but no recession, stimulus to lift growth

The excuses are pouring forth. The official vindication is the US/China trade war.

This goose wouldn't know which way is up or down!

Here he is at the US $20 million Phalang Prachat Party fundraising pigfest with his filthy rich friends. Sickening!

1 hour ago, StayinThailand2much said:

For a developing country like Thailand, a meager growth rate of only 2.3% got to be the next-"best" thing to a recession.

 

Wonder, whether Thailand is slowly becoming the "sick man" of Asia...

The sickest at the moment is Singapore, with 0.1%. Malaysia is 4.9%.

'The government last month announced the $10 billion stimulus package that will include support for farmers and tourism in a bid to boost domestic activity.'

 

Is that nearly enough to make any sort of difference?

Just like everywhere in the world there's no plan or assistance to retire debt. Thais keep spending, even if debt not increasing, struggling to merely service their debt. The banks have their pound of flesh and especially with defaults coming on property from homeowners and developers it's gonna be a long way back to the top of they want to rock and roll again.

 

Debt is 80% of household per capital.

13 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

'The government last month announced the $10 billion stimulus package that will include support for farmers and tourism in a bid to boost domestic activity.'

 

Is that nearly enough to make any sort of difference?

It was a payment scheme. The govt would pay the farmers debts held. It wasn't any direct assistance or handout as I recall. So that will do absolutely nothing for the economy.

Edited September 4, 20196 yr by Number 6

1 hour ago, Selatan said:

The sickest at the moment is Singapore, with 0.1%. Malaysia is 4.9%.

Just wait. Philippines has enjoyed best run in years but it will lose its mojo. If Philippines was a stock you'd short it every time and win. One insufferably broken country. Indonesia is pretty much a failed state as well by now.

 

5% in this environment is ok. China might only be mustering that now. Perhaps less.

Edited September 4, 20196 yr by Number 6

Recessions are like cancer. By the time you can see it, it is too late.

If China falls it will take Thailand with it

Edited September 4, 20196 yr by 3421abc

For some reason I have stoped believing any government officials as their statements or assurance always come on the heels of bad outlook either by BOT or some bank analyst, and always an upbeat outlook.

 

Fact is in the past decade , entire world slipped in/out of recession where Thailand did not. 

 

It is simply not possible to keep on climbing and not be affected by the rest of the world indefinitely 

1 hour ago, 3421abc said:

If China falls it will take Thailand with it

And probably Australia 

Remember, a stitch in time saves Nine...!!!

12 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

For a developing country like Thailand, a meager growth rate of only 2.3% got to be the next-"best" thing to a recession.

 

Wonder, whether Thailand is slowly becoming the "sick man" of Asia...

Vietnam tipped for an average growth rate of 6 to 7 %.

The rich rule and they are smart enough to get their govt pawns to <deleted> away. Meanwhile, average Thais and small businesses are slowly digging their own graves with DEBT. 

And having no idea of simple finance management, they are getting conned into more and more debt .

Australia too, with their ridiculous Buy now, Pay later schemes , are drowning in debt. But at least I read retail there is slowing. 

Recession worldwide will be an inevitable reset. Lots of losers and some Winners. The rich are always ready and live this scenario. 

Of course they will closely monitor the rising Baht—but take no action.  Because at the same time, they take in ChiCom hot money inflows from BoT bond sales.  And you know payoffs abound...

Normally, I would state my default position, that we cannot believe an unqualified, and completely incompetent minister from this administration. But, Uttama is one of the few ministers in the past 5 1/2 years, who is actually qualified for his job. So, one could refer to him as some sort of human miracle, or someone who somehow slipped through the cracks of Prayuth inspired mediocrity.

 

Having said that, there is no way for this guy to state honestly, that Thailand will not see a recession. I am predicting a major recession worldwide, within the next 1-3 years. I see the DOW making a precipitous drop of over 10,000 points, maybe more, and the US property market getting decimated, with some areas falling well over 50% in value. The economy in the US is more overinflated than the Hindenburg was.

 

What effect will that have on Thailand? It certainly will not escape unharmed. 

3 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

Normally, I would state my default position, that we cannot believe an unqualified, and completely incompetent minister from this administration. But, Uttama is one of the few ministers in the past 5 1/2 years, who is actually qualified for his job. So, one could refer to him as some sort of human miracle, or someone who somehow slipped through the cracks of Prayuth inspired mediocrity.

 

Having said that, there is no way for this guy to state honestly, that Thailand will not see a recession. I am predicting a major recession worldwide, within the next 1-3 years. I see the DOW making a precipitous drop of over 10,000 points, maybe more, and the US property market getting decimated, with some areas falling well over 50% in value. The economy in the US is more overinflated than the Hindenburg was.

 

What effect will that have on Thailand? It certainly will not escape unharmed. 

Spot on....and sit tight. This year is the start, and i still say this October though November is the start of the reality...

18 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Looks like Thailand's version of One Direction - No Direction

16 hours ago, Selatan said:

The sickest at the moment is Singapore, with 0.1%. Malaysia is 4.9%.

 

Yeah maybe in absolute numbers, but Singapore itself is one of the richest countries in the world already - it doesn't need the growth thailand needs.

Recession just means economy is in decline and nothing else, it's not the apocalypse.

If you GDP per capita is 58k USD/Year and you lose some of that you are still way better off than thailand ever was....

22 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Thailand says economy slowing but no recession, stimulus to lift growth

Give it a few more months for the strong baht to take more affect then say that again !