Exports, imports witness drop in September

[webfact]

Exports, imports witness drop in September

By THE NATION

 

 

Thailand’s exports in September shrank 1.4 per cent year on year to US$20.48 billion (Bt617.5 billion), while imports dropped 4.2 per cent to $19.20 billion, according to a statement from the Thai National Shipper’s Council today (November 5).

 

This resulted in Thailand’s trade surplus being $1.275 billion.

 

Exports during the January-September period also fell 2.1 per cent year on year to $186.572 billion, while imports declined 3.7 per cent to $179.19 billion, which resulted in a trade surplus of $7.381 billion.

 

The council has maintained its forecast of export decline of 1.5 per cent this year on the assumption that the baht value will be around 33 per US dollar. It has also maintained the forecast that exports will grow between zero and one per cent next year on the assumption that the baht value will be 30.50 per dollar.

 

Among the existing risk factors are the continued decline of the global economy and the possible impact from the US decision to suspend the Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) granted to some Thai export products.

 

US Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross said in Thailand on Monday that the suspension of tariff privileges under the GSP is “not a big deal” as it represents only $1.3 billion of Thailand’s $4.4-billion exports under the GSP to the United States and is a small fraction of total Thai exports.

 

He said the two countries still have time to discuss the underlying issue of workers’ rights before the removal of GSP takes effect in April next year. The commerce secretary was in Bangkok to give a keynote address at the Indo-Pacific Business Forum.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30378079

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-11-05

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[kingofthemountain]

 

and it's just the beginning

Edited November 5, 2019 by kingofthemountain

[Jimbo in Thailand]

27 minutes ago, webfact said:

The council has maintained its forecast of export decline of 1.5 per cent this year on the assumption that the baht value will be around 33 per US dollar. It has also maintained the forecast that exports will grow between zero and one per cent next year on the assumption that the baht value will be 30.50 per dollar.

Am I missing something here?  So Thai exports are expected to decline on a weaker 33 baht/USD but... exports will grow on a stronger 30.50 baht/USD?  WHAT THE [expletive deleted]?!!!  It just boggles the mind where they come up with this sh*t, don't it?  ????????????????

 

As usual... T. I. T.

[Scot123]

Just so confusing. So many Mou, so many foreign companies lining up to move to Thailand and build big factories, the Baht so very high but then large factories closing down with thousands losing their jobs, 4 years ago a massive exodus of foreign investment left the country, exports down inports now down shrinking condo market but still building new high priced condos.. I think someone's telling porkies.... 

[mok199]

In a land with so so many Hubs , how is this possible???

[Lamkyong]

what no BREXIT    TO INCLUDE /BLAME???

[Fred white]

2 hours ago, Jimbo in Thailand said:

Am I missing something here?  So Thai exports are expected to decline on a weaker 33 baht/USD but... exports will grow on a stronger 30.50 baht/USD?  WHAT THE [expletive deleted]?!!!  It just boggles the mind where they come up with this sh*t, don't it?  ????????????????

 

As usual... T. I. T.

Unless they're talking about value

[xbusman]

I get the shrinking exports, the baht strength is going to do serious damage our manufacturing economy for a long time to come even if it corrected soon, which I doubt. The Shippers council has to beat the drum about growing exports next year in line with the official statements but when the camera turns off you can bet they are running for the exits. The much more worrying statement is that with the grossly over valued baht, imports are dropping even faster. That is counter intuitive and hints at far more serious structural problems, it is a shame we are unable to dig into those numbers further. I am guessing that debt, already very problematic, has ballooned beyond the very concerning levels earlier in the year. It could also be that construction has shut down more extensively than is apparent. Construction being the largest non essential importer. Just guessing out loud, I bet construction accounts for as much as 15% of all Thai imports so it could easily account for a 5% drop if the brakes are applied. 

[Isaan sailor]

thailand holds hands with the ChiComs, and walks lockstep.  Do they really wonder why exports and imports tanked?

[30la]

The spiral continues to turn down and the government seems that it doesn't notice or doesn't care!

[DrTuner]

3 hours ago, xbusman said:

The much more worrying statement is that with the grossly over valued baht, imports are dropping even faster. 

Must be all the imported cheese and wine that the now extinct expats ate and drank. 

[Cadbury]

23 hours ago, webfact said:

....on the assumption that the baht value will be around 33 per US dollar

They shouldn't call it an assumption; they should call it a prayer.

It is currently at 30.34 and other more competent forecasters than the Thai National Shipper's Council are predicting it will move into the 29/28 area after the new year.

They are going to need more than infantile free money stimulus campaigns such as "eat, shop, spend, go on holidays".