Thai economy stays on downtrend in November

[snoop1130]

Thai economy stays on downtrend in November

By THE NATION

 

 

The Thai economy stayed on a path of deceleration in November, according to a Bank of Thailand report today (December 30).

 

The value of merchandise exports continued to contract, mainly due to the economic slowdown of trading partners, consistent with deterioration in merchandise imports, manufacturing production and private investment indicators.

 

Public spending also contracted from both current and capital expenditures as private consumption indicators edged up amid the government’s economic stimulus measures.

 

However, the tourism sector continued its expansion during the month.

 

On the stability front, headline inflation edged up from the previous month on the back of higher core inflation and lower contraction in energy prices.

 

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate slightly increased while the number of employed persons was unchanged. The current account remained in surplus while the capital and financial accounts posted a deficit from the asset position.

 

Details of economic conditions in November:

 

The value of merchandise exports, excluding gold, contracted by 7.7 per cent from the same period last year.

 

The contraction of exports in almost all categories was due to 1) the economic slowdown of trading partners; 2) the non-obvious recovery in electronic cycle; and 3) the contraction of global crude oil prices, coupled with the temporary maintenance shutdown of some oil refineries, leading to the contraction of petroleum-related products exports, both in terms of prices and quantity.

 

Additionally, structural changes in production and global trade as a result of trade tensions caused some Thai export items being replaced by Chinese products in the Asean market.

 

However, exports of agro-manufacturing products continued to expand. As a consequence of the merchandise exports contraction, manufacturing production continued to decline.

 

The value of merchandise imports contracted by 13.9 per cent from the same period last year, excluding gold while imports value contracted by 15.4 per cent.

 

The contraction of imports in almost all categories, consistent with softening economic activities, was attributable to 1) imports of raw materials and intermediate goods especially in crude oil, partly due to the maintenance shutdown of some oil refineries; 2) imports of capital goods mainly from turbo-jets and telecommunication equipment; and 3) imports of consumer goods particularly in fishery products due to the high base effect last year.

 

Private investment indicators continued to deteriorate from the same period last year as a result of weak domestic and external demands and the low rate of capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector, causing businesses to delay investment.

 

Consequently, investment in machinery and equipment continued to contract from imports of capital goods, domestic machinery sales, and the number of newly-registered motor vehicles.

 

Meanwhile, investment in construction declined from permitted construction area for residential purposes, consistent with subdued activities in the real estate sector. However, the permitted construction area for manufacturing purposes continued to grow while the permitted construction area for commercial and other purposes expanded in November.

 

Public spending, excluding transfers, contracted from both current and capital expenditures. Current expenditures contracted due to purchases of goods and services from disbursement of some national security authorities.

 

Meanwhile, central government’s capital expenditures continued to contract as the FY2020 budget has yet to be enforced. State enterprises' capital expenditures contracted slightly, mainly among energy-related agencies.

 

Private consumption indicators expanded at a slightly higher pace from the same period last year but continued to be on a decelerating trend relative to the first half of the year, in line with softening non-farm income and consumer confidence, together with financial institutions’ tightening of credit standards for auto-leasing loans after a deterioration in credit quality. Meanwhile, the government’s economic stimulus measures continued to support households' purchasing power to a certain extent.

 

In November, spending on non-durable goods and services decelerated, after accelerating in the previous month due to the government’s economic stimulus measures. Nevertheless, spending on semi-durable and durable goods continued to contract, especially in vehicle sales.

 

The number of foreign tourist arrivals continued to expand at 5.9 per cent compared with the same period last year from 1) the exemption of the visa on arrival fee, encouraging more visitors from China, India, and Taiwan; 2) the recovery of the Russian economy and an increase in airline route from Russia to Thailand, supporting more Russian tourists; and 3) the continued expansion of other Asian tourists from Laos and Japan etc.

 

The number of foreign tourist grew at a slower pace from the previous month while the low base effect from the tour boat incident in Phuket last year fades out.

 

On the stability front, headline inflation stood at 0.21 per cent, accelerating from last month on the back of lower contraction in energy prices due to higher domestic retail petroleum prices from the previous month, and a slightly increase in core inflation.

 

The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate slightly increased while the number of employed persons was unchanged. The current account remained in surplus. The overall capital and financial accounts registered a deficit from the asset position as a result of Thai Direct Investment (TDI) especially in equity, and portfolio investment in debt securities of Thai investors.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30380004

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2019-12-30

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[Chazar]

Lies  all lies I  tell you

[RotBenz8888]

6 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

The number of foreign tourist grew at a slower pace

Grew downwards?

[Denim]

The non obvious recovery in electronic cycle

 

Say what ??

 

Nothing to do with the strong baht then ? Who invents this garbage.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2019 by Denim

[metisdead]

A troll post has been removed. 

[SteveK]

They don't want to blame the strong baht because anyone with any authority in Thailand is coining it off of the exchange rate and wearing the latest Rolex.

[ParkerN]

Clear as mud.

 

Well, if you can't blind them with science, then you'll have to baffle them with BS I suppose.

 

 

[Traubert]

Hurrah, the TVF economists are here. ????

 

Lads, leave it to us native speakers. We understand that 'grew at a slower pace' means 'still grew but not as quickly as before.'

 

Think of it in terms of puberty which you'll recognise when you get there. From 8-13 years, you grow like a beanpole, right? From 13-18 years, you reach what will be your maximum height until your spine starts to atrophy and then you will shrink and change shape. It doesn't mean an early demise because you arent growing as quick right?  With me so far? Good.

 

Let me put it in TVF terms, ok?

 

Oil prices are f****ed temporarily so it being sold in dollars, which were also f****ed temporarily during November, which is the 11th month of the year, a lot of oil dependent commoditie......

 

Ah screw it, yes they're all lying, have another Chang. Knock yourselves out.

[hotchilli]

13 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The Thai economy stayed on a path of deceleration in November

Expect the same for December.

[Isaan sailor]

Yep, that’s what happens when you hitch your wagon to the ChiComs.  Submarines, bullet trains and overwhelming hot money into Bank of Thailand bond sales.  The wheels have come off Thailand’s economy, and most of us saw this coming...

[ParkerN]

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

Yep, that’s what happens when you hitch your wagon to the ChiComs.  Submarines, bullet trains and overwhelming hot money into Bank of Thailand bond sales.  The wheels have come off Thailand’s economy, and most of us saw this coming...

 

That's true, though many of us saw the wheels coming off, not because of anything to do with China (though worldwide there is a glut of justification for that), but because of the outstanding and superlative expertise provided by the legendary Thai incompetence. It was a prediction based on an intimate knowledge of the burden posed by the Thai psyche and culture, not the machinations of the Chinese, though they were undoubtedly further grist to the mill. It's delicious in a way, the Chinese colonised Thailand through the back door, and the Sini-Thais are the ones who will hurt the most as the wheels continue to come off; aided and abetted by.... the Chinese.

 

For those who have a fine appreciation of the bizarre, this is waaay better than dim sum.

[Mavideol]

21 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

The Thai economy stayed on a path of deceleration in November, according to a Bank of Thailand report today (December 30).

nothing to worry about, the government says ALL it's ok and all forecasts are on the positive side, growth is coming, when?..... they know it but won't tell us

[Bangkokazy]

Thaivisa is a propaganda machine.

+ all English newspapers made in Thailand

[chama]

The trade problems between the US and China are hurting Thailand and those in position to make adjustments are not feeling the impact the everyday man is feeling so they are not as motivated. That coupled with the fact that they really don't know what to do. There are those in the upper income levels that are feeling the impact (although they do not have control to make changes) and will eventually apply the needed pressure to either motivate those in charge to make corrections. Or they will work to change the leadership, which would solve a lot of other problems as well.