What may come next

[DrTuner]

There's a new article from Tomas Pueyo, who has been crunching data and producing graphs and sharing his thoughts: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

Quote

Summary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.

 

It's worth a read, as it does deliver some hope and insight. I like to speculate on these, it often surfaces new information. Fire away.

Edited March 24, 2020 by DrTuner

[UbonThani]

Closing for 30 days makes some sense but these politicians arent saying when. They still get paid. Most businesses need to open by late April otherwise the economies are rooted.

[cornishcarlos]

1 minute ago, UbonThani said:

Closing for 30 days makes some sense but these politicians arent saying when. They still get paid. Most businesses need to open by late April otherwise the economies are rooted.

 

I agree... Anything past end of April and economic recovery will take a long time and cripple lots of people/businesses...

Hopefully the next 2 weeks will see some slowing down of spread and we can make some progress in the right direction ??

[UbonThani]

Those graphs are bogus. They also contradict the point of more testing.

[DrTuner]

7 hours ago, UbonThani said:

Those graphs are bogus. They also contradict the point of more testing.

Actually they advocate more testing, the Korea model.

 

The graphs seem to come from a SEIR model, which is widely used in the front lines of epidemiology: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology#The_SEIR_model

 

You can play around with that model here: http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

 

While the model is not perfect, it's a good tool. The problem is the data needed to fit the model is being skewed by useless politicians & co that are still in some sort of rescue economy mode. 

 

It seems many people aren't familiar with modern data science, big data and using machine learning to find clusters. It's everyday stuff in tech companies and has a solid mathematical basis. We're better off than in 2003 SARS in that regard. The mathematical models themselves seem to have been there since WW2. Feel free to dispute them.

 

 

 

[DrTuner]

7 hours ago, UbonThani said:

Closing for 30 days makes some sense but these politicians arent saying when. They still get paid. Most businesses need to open by late April otherwise the economies are rooted.

Economies are rooted the second the containment fails. In Thailand it has failed days if not weeks ago. Now it's a matter of keeping the health care system at least somewhat effective by trying to flatten the curve.