What gives?

[dingdongrb]

I am wondering how the USA (104,205) has surpassed China (81,394) with the number of COVID-19 cases confirmed?

 

While China has more than 4x the population and during the outbreak all the Chinese were scattering about for the Chinese New Year it's hard to believe these numbers.

 

Is the data being provided for real?

 

Is it that China is not conducting tests for those suspected of having the virus?

 

Is it perhaps the validity of the tests?

 

Or did China get it under control sooner?

 

...and there's India (887) which is reporting even fewer cases than here in Thailand (1,136).

 

Makes a person think.....  Hmmmmmmmmmm

[Jip99]

You think too mutt.....

[dingdongrb]

1 minute ago, Jip99 said:

You think too mutt.....

Sorry if it hurts your feelers, enjoy your day.

[1FinickyOne]

I think that qwith so many people able to walk around asymptomatic and for a long time, it would be impossible to get correct figures... 

[meechai]

if China developed virus as opposed to bat stories...then perhaps they had head start on drugs too

 

Or they flat out lied about numbers....Their already on the hot seat for withholding severity too long

[chingmai331]

China Inc. permits no bad news.

[pgrahmm]

1 minute ago, meechai said:

if China developed virus as opposed to bat stories...then perhaps they had head start on drugs too

 

Or they flat out lied about numbers....Their already on the hot seat for withholding severity too long

Paragraph #2 for the win....

[CNXBKKMAN]

The numbers are calculated differently all over the world. Some countries test more and have "more" infections. Some countries test less or not at all like Myanmar and "no" infections. The UK counts corona deaths that occur at hospitals. The people who have died at home are not included in the stats as a corona death. 

 

However China locked down Wuhan and surrounding areas tightly early on. The USA isn't doing any of this. New York is suffering hard with the virus and New Yorkers are free to fly anywhere in the USA taking the virus with them. This was stopped very quickly in Wuhan. 

 

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/03/25/still-no-health-screenings-at-orlando-airport-for-new-york-area-arrivals-after-governors-order/

[seajae]

reports say china had around 10 times more cases than they said they did, people who were able to get videos/messages out stated as much. They are not being honest because that would defeat what they are trying to do, china cannot be trusted at all let alone the figures they gave out and what they are still claiming.

[CNXBKKMAN]

To get a more accurate feel for the total number of people with corona you could multiply each countries official numbers by 20 (or thereabouts) 

 

The UK is only testing people at hospitals who arrive sick with corona. Doctors and nurses who develop mild forms of corona don't get tested! they are told to self isolate at home. If 5% of corona infected people get it bad enough to visit a hospital, they have trouble breathing etc, the other 95% are laid up at home feeling ill but not serious enough for them to go to hospital. These people are untested and not represented in the stats. So...

 

UK infections 14543 as of 27 Mar . Multiply by 20 .  Total 290,860 infections approx/ guesstimate? 

 

This back on an envelope guesstimate might be accurate for a lot of countries like China. Do you multiply by 20 or 18? or 10 for countries that free health care (more people will go to hospital when its free) or 20 just for countries that you have to pay for healthcare where more people will stay at home because they can't afford the hospital bill or delay it for as long as possible?

[Jip99]

52 minutes ago, dingdongrb said:

Sorry if it hurts your feelers, enjoy your day.

 

It doesn't......thanks.

[4MyEgo]

1 hour ago, dingdongrb said:

I am wondering how the USA (104,205) has surpassed China (81,394) with the number of COVID-19 cases confirmed?

To perhaps blame China for the spread, who knows, maybe the USA is infecting its own people too, could be a way of staying at the top, especially when China has been on their tail for how many years now, hmmm, trade war etc etc to try and combat them, but this is a really curly one and might just backfire, that said George's weapons of mass destruction didn't, or did it ?

 

I am ready for it......

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by 4MyEgo

[pgrahmm]

China strikes again.....

 

This could be one reason for the number manipulation - or - they foisted off known bad testing units to other countries.....Profiting in 3 different ways.....

[SimpleMan555]

The total number of positives can vary based on a host of factors, number of actual tests conducted, type of test conducted, who is allowed to get the test (symptomatic only or general population), accuracy of the test and more.

 

It seems plausible, that given the Chinese government's reluctance to fully share

information and data regarding the virus, that their numbers regarding the total number of cases is inaccurate.

 

Additionally, in recent news cycles it has been reported that the one of the Chinese test (rapid test using antibodies) has an accuracy rate of  30%.  ????

       - https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3077169/spanish-capital-ditches-unreliable-chinese-coronavirus-test-kits
       - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/coronavirus-test-kits-withdrawn-spain-poor-accuracy-rate
 ***(I looked for more scholarly articles for the above report of the Chinese test low accuracy rate, but could not find a readily available source)
 

Initially the US had very a very low testing rate due to the CDC developing an unreliable test, which when combined with other long entrenched bureaucratic regulations made it very difficult to get new tests developed early on.
These regulations have since been modified and the US testing ability is increasing at a rapid pace.  I would expect the US numbers to continue to rise well above the numbers of other countries, with the 'Deaths per Capita' & number hospitalized being the more important numbers. 

   - https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/what-went-wrong-with-coronavirus-testing-in-the-us


IMO, I think using Per Captia rates is a better method,
Tests / million of population
Deaths / million of population.

etc...

 

As more data becomes available, it would appear that the individual circumstances of each nation, including temperature, culture, and more play a role in the ability of the virus to spread.

This situation will change daily and for now, I will do my part by maintaining my self-imposed isolation and do what I can to assist others as possible.

Cheers ????

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by SimpleMan555

[sraisin]

The Italian numbers I have seen reported show most deaths are aged 70+ and the concentration of deaths In Australia and Some other countries are in aged care homes. I suggest the population age in general and how the aged are cared for plays a big part in the death rate. Western cultures such as Australia and the US tend to put the elderly in nursing homes, Once the virus is in these institutions then spread through out is rapid. Asian cultures tend to keep their elderly at home with the family, so there is no concentrated housing of aged people. This could slow the time it takes for the virus to reach each of the older aged group. Hopefully, with distancing and care, The path to this group is blocked and the death count in Thailand never reaches the levels seen in Italy. I Also agree Accurate reporting and standard of health care are 2 significant variables in both the reported case rate and death rate. 

[mike787]

1 hour ago, Jip99 said:

You think too mutt.....

Well said...chill out....have a beer, look at how wonderful thailand is...you can wonder all you like but will NOT change anything...

[time2093]

Well lets see, China actually listens and obeys their government, keep it mind its a communist society and other hand the almighty USA is the total opposite.