Which shares are you buying?

[Phuketshrew]

Not so sure about banks. HSBC tanked last Thursday on the dividend news. I bought Put options for $1.00 a couple of days earlier and within 10 minutes of the opening bell they sold for $3.00 - 200% profit was a nice little earner ???? They even went up further to $4.

[rwill]

I just bought some Qantas shares.  At the price right now the dividend yield is around 9%.

I also bought some Carnival and will buy more shares if the market goes down again, which I think is likely to happen.

 

Some others to check out:

PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS) Brazil  

Prosus N.V. (PROSY) Netherlands

Edited April 9, 2020 by rwill

[rwill]

13 hours ago, BillStrangeOgre said:

I have never understood crypto, it's that old 'you can't teach an old dog new tricks' yaba. I understand the argument for gold/dollars/bonds in a search for safety but why do you think investors will move into crypto now as opposed to other assets?

I've got to say, being an old fuddy duddy, I don't quite get it either.  But there are many saying it is the future.  I got into 2 blockchain ETF's and they are among my best performing ETF's.  I have BLOK and BLCN.  There are 3 others that I am aware of too.

Edited April 9, 2020 by rwill

[BillStrangeOgre]

13 hours ago, donnacha said:

I got into it relatively late, mainly because I did not want any additional complexity in my life. I also felt that I had missed the boat anyway. Having been aware of it when it was just a few cents per Bitcoin, I simply could not bring myself to get involved after it reached the ridiculous price of one hundred dollars. That was crazy.

When I finally got around to it a few years ago, I was surprised to discover that buying, holding, and selling were all very simple. You join an exchange by emailing them photos of your ID documents. Then you make a bank transfer to your account, giving you a balance in your currency. Then you buy as much or as little as you want of the various types of cryptocurrency, giving you new balances in each. You can invest as little as a dollar at a time if you want. The fees are extremely low, so, you can easily jump in and out of various currencies, and you can maintain balances in pretty much all types of "fiat" currencies, including Thai Baht.

The nice part is that, when you want to sell, the money instantly appears in your cash balance and you can send as much of that as you want to your bank account. For me, using the European banking system, the money appears in my bank within an hour. That gave me the confidence to keep more of my "ready cash" in crypto.

The bad part, of course, is that high volatility means you might be ahead one day and behind the next. It would be a bad idea to put money into crypto that you are definitely going to need back the following week. The trick, much like regular shares, is to ride the waves and sell when the prices are at a high. You usually don't have to wait too long, high volatility means the swings happen more often.
 

 

My short-term thesis is that the current prices are irrationally low due to "worse case scenario" thinking and will continue to recover as it becomes more apparent that the world is not actually ending.

My medium-term thesis is that unprecedented levels of quantitive easing, along with a less-than-convincing narrative from the governments backing those currencies, will tip more investors towards keeping at least some of their money in currencies that cannot be inflated, such as Bitcoin. That is the core value of Bitcoin: an easily transferrable store of value that cannot increase in number.

My long-term thesis is that, having established its credibility over a decade, Bitcoin will experience more of the massive jumps it has in the past. I don't know when, but some of the past major rises have been fueled by the need to move value out of repressive regimes such as China and Venezuela. In my own life, I have made several major sales to customers in Vietnam that simply could not have happened without Bitcoin because their government strictly controls the ability of money to leave the country. Bitcoin was extremely useful for both me and those Vietnamese buyers, allowing the magic of trade to occur where it otherwise could not.

My Coronavirus hunch is that world as a whole will become more repressive. This year will see major moves to remove cash from circulation, as has already happened in some countries, and significant increases in all forms of taxation.
 

The main thing to remember is that the entire crypto market is tiny. For example, the current value of all Bitcoins is under $135 billion. It is a microbe compared to the regular markets and assets such as gold (around ten trillion). As quantitive easing exceeds anything we saw in the wake of 9/11, the amount of money sloshing around the world is going to be insane. With banks offering no interest and few regular investments (such as startups) making any sense at all, if Bitcoin starts to rise you could see a lot of idle money deciding to jump onboard. Its relatively small size means that, if such a trend takes hold, we will see ridiculous rises, spurring even more attention. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is a big factor in Bitcoin pricing.

The Coronavirus shock caused Bitcoin to lose half its value within a month. A combination of panic and a desire to convert to cash to buy other suddenly cheaper assets, meant that it dropped from 10k in mid-February to 5k in mid-March. Now, as we approach mid-April, it is back up to 7.3k and my gut tells me it will probably hit 10k again by June. My prediction that it would recover more quickly than shares appears to be holding. There is, of course, a chance that it will crash again but I think it has already weathered the worst possible situation. The chance of an upwards boom is now higher than the chance of another crash.

Anyone curious should consider investing a small amount that you can easily track. For example, today, 1% of a Bitcoin would cost you around $73. Having an exact percentage like that will make it easy for you to see the market price and know how much your stake is now worth without have to engage in complicated math. If you can afford to risk it, an entire Bitcoin for around $7.3K would be even easier to track. There is a certain thrill in watching the price of an asset rocket, even if you only own a small amount.

The other popular coin is Ethereum which currently costs just $170. Some people think it has more upside potential than Bitcoin. I do have a few Ethereum but, personally, I think there is a lot of value in Bitcoin being the cryptocurrency that everyone has heard of.

I hope that helps.

 

So basically the story for Bitcoin etc is the same as for equities in these times of massive fiscal stimulus, some of that money will end up in shares and crypto, forcing prices up

Interesting that crypto is also used to avoid government restrictions on currency movements.

Cheers for that 

  

[BillStrangeOgre]

1 hour ago, rwill said:

I've got to say, being an old fuddy duddy, I don't quite get it either.  But there are many saying it is the future.  I got into 2 blockchain ETF's and they are among my best performing ETF's.  I have BLOK and BLCN.  There are 3 others that I am aware of too.

I will look into it, probably worth a play with a small % of overall investments

[BillStrangeOgre]

1 hour ago, rwill said:

I just bought some Qantas shares.  At the price right now the dividend yield is around 9%.

I also bought some Carnival and will buy more shares if the market goes down again, which I think is likely to happen.

 

Some others to check out:

PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS) Brazil  

Prosus N.V. (PROSY) Netherlands

Yes, i like airlines in the long run. I think some of the smaller companies that were facing financial difficulties in 2019 and were not hedged to take advantage of the lower oil price might not make it but the big boys should survive.

[khunken]

I'm taking a punt on oil & gasoline: USO & UGA.

OIl has been so beaten down it can't go much lower and I'm sure that the Saudis & Russians are hurting and will come to an agreement (if not today, fairly soon) to stop flooding the market

Gasoline consumption in the US will rise as soon as travel & stay-at-home restrictions are lifted.

[allanos]

It's a brave man who is buying stocks and shares at the moment.  The future we are facing is a huge unknown.  We may suddenly be existing in a "new normal" where the old paradigm has gone out the window.  Wait and see is the watchword (s)!

 

Mines are shuttered at the moment and will take some time to get back into operation.  Physical gold and silver are hard to get.  The upside for both looks very strong, more so when the Fed starts pumping a couple more trillion dollars into the US economy. Gold is holding up quite well at around $ 1650; still plenty of upside potential.

 

Mining royalty stocks are a good shout.  Take a look at Metalla Corp.

 

It is worth holding at least a small percentage of crypto in your portfolios.  BTC is the obvious one.  It is up only 1% this year, but compare that to any other asset this year.  It is also about to "halve"; BTC holders (hodlers, so-called) will know what this technical term means.  Based on past occurrences, the upside over a time frame of about 18 months is huge, a reward/risk ratio that simply begs to be taken advantage of by buying now. 

Edited April 9, 2020 by allanos
typo

[Paradise Pete]

18 hours ago, timendres said:

I am so short this market, I cannot even imagine going long.

 

Me too, but the attitude in the US is changing. People are starting to think that the worst is over. I'm not saying they're right, and clearly there's this enormous economic hole that will move through the economy, but I suspect we're in for some short-term pain.

[Unify]

The 3D printing industry is looking good to me, but I don't know who to buy. The printer manufactures? The filament makers? Software?

[CGW]

1 hour ago, khunken said:

I'm taking a punt on oil & gasoline: USO & UGA.

OIl has been so beaten down it can't go much lower and I'm sure that the Saudis & Russians are hurting and will come to an agreement (if not today, fairly soon) to stop flooding the market

Gasoline consumption in the US will rise as soon as travel & stay-at-home restrictions are lifted.

THE USA will not be the worlds biggest oil producer after this "event" oil price is too low for Shale oil, doubtless part of the Saudi plan, the "Majors" RDS, XOM,CVX, will mop up and prosper - yet again, though when to buy is always the question, all have good dividends too.

Edited April 9, 2020 by CGW

[JerseytoBKK]

On 4/9/2020 at 4:12 PM, CGW said:

THE USA will not be the worlds biggest oil producer after this "event" oil price is too low for Shale oil, doubtless part of the Saudi plan, the "Majors" RDS, XOM,CVX, will mop up and prosper - yet again, though when to buy is always the question, all have good dividends too.

I bought XOM last month at 36. Div yield 9.66%. I'll gladly wait a year or three for XOM to go back to $80.

 

I was very tempted to also add RDS with their higher yield and excellent div history but 3 little reasons I didn't are: they have a lot of debt; they're forced to waste money placating eco-terrorists; and XOM has more upside. If someone wants geographical and geopolitical diversity, then picking both XOM and RDS are great choices. 

[CGW]

8 minutes ago, JerseytoBKK said:

they're forced to waste money placating eco-terrorists;

True! playing the game is how I read it, have a read of attached, message I get is "we will be playing the game" the brainwashing brigade is powerful at this time, better to go with the flow than fight them - & make money on the way, worth noting that Blackrock are major RDS shareholders.

https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/investor-relations/larry-fink-ceo-letter

[JerseytoBKK]

29 minutes ago, CGW said:

True! playing the game is how I read it, have a read of attached, message I get is "we will be playing the game" the brainwashing brigade is powerful at this time, better to go with the flow than fight them - & make money on the way, worth noting that Blackrock are major RDS shareholders.

https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/investor-relations/larry-fink-ceo-letter

I think a lot of Fortune 500 CEOs like the eco-terrorist agenda because the more government regulations that exist, the harder it is for small and medium size businesses to compete with the big companies.

 

The brainwashing brigade is already blaming Covid (and future versions of Covids) on climate change. Just one example: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/a-green-reboot-after-the-pandemic/

 

[JerseytoBKK]

On 4/9/2020 at 12:49 PM, Phuketshrew said:

Not so sure about banks. HSBC tanked last Thursday on the dividend news. I bought Put options for $1.00 a couple of days earlier and within 10 minutes of the opening bell they sold for $3.00 - 200% profit was a nice little earner ???? They even went up further to $4.

Banks were hurt bad in 2008/2009 because they had so many non-performing loans. The gov is propping up all sorts of businesses and most banks will be making money this time around.

 

The market was so volatile a couple of weeks ago that buying puts on many stocks could return big payoffs if you waited 3-4 days. That was before the latest sustained run up. If we return to having more 1000 pt up, 2000 pt down, 800 pt up, 1500 pt down weeks, then you'll have another chance to play the buy/close out puts game.