German study shows COVID-19 might not be fatal as previously thought

[Logosone]

28 minutes ago, AussieBob18 said:

Hard to say exactly who was the most alarmist - but it is fair to call out the experts who predicted huge numbers dying worldwide - 50 mill to 200 mill - and in each country.

But the most culpable is and always must be China.  They either ignorantly or deliberately withheld information from the world - for whatever reason it doesn't matter - they caused all this panic - period.

WHO are complicit because they believed them, and they believed because like in so many other organisations and institutions around the world, the CCP has spent decades gaining 'influence'.  The warnings that Taiwan gave them were ignored because the CCP demands that WHO ignore anything from Taiwan.

Then when the WHO finalised realised the pandemic that was coming, the senior 'experts' in each country took the WHO advice and information, and jumped on board with their own dire predictions and recommendations.

The media reacted as they always do - they sensationalised and over-stated the problems and deaths.

Then the politicians took drastic actions as they realised they were a long way behind and had to 'catch up' and get ready for the inevitable cases and deaths that were coming.

And then the politicians started using selected stats and information and half-truths against their opponents in power.

Then the media fanned the flames and kept pushing whatever sensational narrative that they wanted - both sides.

 

Meanwhile Taiwan had already shut down all travel to and from Wuhan and then to and from China many months ago - and they are now OK.

 

The media and the political opposition played an important role. It was they who got the government, who initially insisted on secrecy and did not release the modelling it had received from Imperial College, to finally reveal the details of the modelling on which their decisions were based.

 

The WHO played an important role because Mike Ryan made clear that testing and isolating the infected was the way to defeat the virus, because the WHO distributed test kits and so on. Did the WHO make mistakes, they surely did. But they were in tough position, because they depended on data fed to them by the Chinese. They had to take that at face value, so when the Chinese told them there was no human to human transmission, the WHO repeated this claim and it was a mistake. However, it was most likely a mistake that the Chinese made as well, and they really held this belief for a while, that there was no human to human transmission.

 

I don't think there was a grand conspiracy by the WHO or China, though clearly China did take too long to reveal the full facts, for very obvious and understandable reasons. The medical data had to work its way up through the political machinery. We saw the same in the West, when Merkel took until 16 March to end flights from China.

 

I have not seen anyone more alarmist than Neil Ferguson, who claimed that 2 million would die in the US and 500,000 in the UK. And of course he was in Downing Street giving his presentation.

 

So if we are going to say who is to blame, yes let's look at the role of the WHO, the media, but clearly it was these experts like Ferguson and the politicians who fell for it hook line and sinker like 15 year old school girls who took us down the path of economic ruin.

 

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by Logosone

[evadgib]

I have no idea where to post this rebuttle from HMG but as it mentions a German study I guess here will do...????

 

PHE response to a Sun newspaper column

[AussieBob18]

5 hours ago, Logosone said:

The media and the political opposition played an important role. It was they who got the government, who initially insisted on secrecy and did not release the modelling it had received from Imperial College, to finally reveal the details of the modelling on which their decisions were based.

 

The WHO played an important role because Mike Ryan made clear that testing and isolating the infected was the way to defeat the virus, because the WHO distributed test kits and so on. Did the WHO make mistakes, they surely did. But they were in tough position, because they depended on data fed to them by the Chinese. They had to take that at face value, so when the Chinese told them there was no human to human transmission, the WHO repeated this claim and it was a mistake. However, it was most likely a mistake that the Chinese made as well, and they really held this belief for a while, that there was no human to human transmission.

 

I don't think there was a grand conspiracy by the WHO or China, though clearly China did take too long to reveal the full facts, for very obvious and understandable reasons. The medical data had to work its way up through the political machinery. We saw the same in the West, when Merkel took until 16 March to end flights from China.

 

I have not seen anyone more alarmist than Neil Ferguson, who claimed that 2 million would die in the US and 500,000 in the UK. And of course he was in Downing Street giving his presentation.

 

So if we are going to say who is to blame, yes let's look at the role of the WHO, the media, but clearly it was these experts like Ferguson and the politicians who fell for it hook line and sinker like 15 year old school girls who took us down the path of economic ruin.

Good summary - the local 'experts' (and media) were definitely to blame for pushing the local Govts into extreme measures.

 

[sirineou]

8 hours ago, Monomial said:

Again, I can make a model approach 100% by using specific assumptions. The assumptions you make are absolutely critical to this. You stated the 60% or so number as a matter of fact without context. That is irresponsible and we all need to be careful. Experts are making assumptions when they say things like that. Don't just repeat an opinion or a model you heard from an expert as if it were fact.

 

We are in this mess today because too many people are listening to "experts" without understanding. Often times, these experts don't know any more than you or I, they just need to pretend like they do.

 

I will concede that given the right assumptions, a disease can be halted at 60% infection. What the assumptions are is the crucial information though, and I don't believe this virus is going to meet that figure. I suspect this is going to be something that infects 90+% of the population.  None of us will know until we see it in hindsight though. My assumptions are no more correct or incorrect than anyone's.

I am afraid you are confusing me with someone else. Please indicate where i stated  60% .

[timendres]

9 hours ago, mauGR1 said:

Are you kidding, right ?

Haven't you noticed that all the media in the world are singing the same tune ?

The scientists who try to explain that covid19 is not that bad, are conveniently ignored.

Or demonized.

[timendres]

9 hours ago, Moonlover said:

And what if the majority of those deaths, low though they may be, occur in the regions where the air pollution is high?

Excellent point.

[timendres]

6 hours ago, Logosone said:

"Death rates are almost always overestimates as they miss tons of people who don’t have [symptoms],” said a US-based statistical geneticist who requested anonymity. “False positive are less of an issue than untested masses.”

He added: “It is consistently in the interest of medical pros to overstate risks in order to win more funding from governments: ‘Fund me and you might not die,’ is a compelling argument!”"

 

https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-are-koreas-covid-19-death-rates-so-low/

There is so much truth in this post. Do a little research on Dr. Fauchi, and you begin to wonder.

[Logosone]

1 hour ago, evadgib said:

I have no idea where to post this rebuttle from HMG but as it mentions a German study I guess here will do...????

 

PHE response to a Sun newspaper column

PHE has been one of the biggest factors in the UK's failure over Covid19.

 

It was PHE that advised Neil Ferguson there was no way to have test kits on time. When in fact UK biotech companies were knocking on PHE's door telling them they had reliable tests. The PHE did not give them accuracy standards and just refused saying they weren't sure the tests were accurate. 

 

Then when Matt Hancock was about to buy test kits from South Korea PHE were asked to test the test kits. They did not get it done on time and the whole deal fell apart.

 

PHE, like the CDC in the US, has been a disgrace.

 

Rather than waste their time doing PR rebutting the SUN point by point, they should get off their backsides and do what they have to do, enable UK companies to produce test kits.

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by Logosone

[yuyiinthesky]

7 hours ago, Logosone said:

Who was the most alarmist?

 

It was Neil Ferguson. He was the one who posted a paper saying that 2 million people in the US would die, 500,000 in the UK would die. It was based on this hyper-alarmist modelling, of which Ferguson later tried to weasel out of, that Boris Johnson then put in the place the policies that he did.

Yes, this guy and his false models influenced the decisions of many countries. The damage he did with his mistakes is immense.

[Logosone]

1 minute ago, yuyiinthesky said:

Yes, this guy and his false models influenced the decisions of many countries. The damage he did with his mistakes is immense.

That is exactly right.

 

Because Imperial College were considered the world leading authority on pandemic modelling.

 

Even the US trusted his models.