Only one new Covid-19 case, pointing to constant improvement in situation

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, offset said:

You sure the figures on May the 6th were not for the end of

April which would seem to be normal

No its updated almost daily

[JCP108]

31 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

That chart looks extremely suspect. Pneumonia is caused by a lot of things, to have it falling towards zero just does not look right.

They have almost completely eradicated Covid-19 infections here while the rest of the world is ravaged by it...with such miraculous success!!!!!  So, why not completely eradicate pneumonia?! As soon as that is at zero, what shall they eradicate next? I suggest driving motorcycles on sidewalks.

 

Just a suggestion. 

Edited May 14, 2020 by JCP108

[Tingnongnoi]

16 minutes ago, DirtyHarry55 said:

Yea according to my calculation the graph indicates 80,500 people have died from Pneumonia this year!
In the first month almost 7,000 people per week! Is that possible very suspect.

says 50 people died

[DrTuner]

5 minutes ago, offset said:

You sure the figures on May the 6th were not for the end of

April which would seem to be normal

Yeah. Apparently the website digs it straight out of the database as soon as somebody takes incoming files from provinces and feeds them in. If you refresh later today it should have a higher number.

[steelepulse]

>>The man looked healthy and did not show any symptoms, which is worrying for officials.

 

Why?  Look at the study of the us prison population spread across a number of different prisons and 96% of them were asymptomatic. 

 

What's the definition of an asymptomatic person?  A healthy person.

 

 Looking at overall IFR rates across the globe, they are way less than 1%.  Take out elderly and those with multiple comorbities, and the IFR number barely registers above 0%.

 

The sky is not falling, unless you fall into the elderly, obese, diabetic, or a person with multiple serious health issues category.

[DirtyHarry55]

8 minutes ago, Tingnongnoi said:

says 50 people died

Oh yea my mistake on that it's cases not deaths but 80k cases still seems a lot.
As for 50 deaths there must be some mistake.
 

Edited May 14, 2020 by DirtyHarry55

[JCP108]

6 minutes ago, Tingnongnoi said:

says 50 people died

It says 50 people died from pneumonia in Thailand in all of 2020?!

[ThailandRyan]

6 minutes ago, steelepulse said:

The sky is not falling, unless you fall into the elderly, obese, diabetic, or a person with multiple serious health issues category.

You better look at some new case studies, as this stupid virus has been hitting all age ranges regardless of any medical issues.....It has also and is being linked with blood clots and strokes in the 20 and 30 crowd, and I mean ages not born of.

[steelepulse]

5 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

You better look at some new case studies, as this stupid virus has been hitting all age ranges regardless of any medical issues.....It has also and is being linked with blood clots and strokes in the 20 and 30 crowd, and I mean ages not born of.

I've seen that.  I'd bet that most of the cases in younger people are due to being obese, diabetic, or some other health issue.  Of course there will be a tiny percentage of healthy people with immune systems that aren't strong that can't handle it.  I've also been seeing that new cases are being treated with blood thinners to help prevent clotting.

[Thomas J]

So lets see.  Bring the country to its knees, have thousand starving when unemployed, destroy tax revenue to the government, destroy tourism perhaps for decades to come.  Oh but wait.  Good news when the economy is back open we can without any worry have 55 people per day for 365 days killed on the streets and nearly that same number killed from HIV.  Glad to see Thailand like the rest of the world is concentrated on tackling the leading causes of death to keep us all safe. 

[ParkerN]

2 hours ago, DrTuner said:

That chart looks extremely suspect. Pneumonia is caused by a lot of things, to have it falling towards zero just does not look right.

Agreed. I think I would be much more comfortable if I were not suspicious that at least some pneumonia cases were attributed to Covid-19. Sort of the mirror image to my other concern that at least some cases of Covid-19 were attributed to pneumonia or some other consequent ailment due to the paucity of reliable testing in TL.

 

Trying to get to the root truth of almost anything in Thailand can be a real challenge when adherence to critical thinking techniques is so unusual and is rarely (if at all) taught in Thailand's educational process.

 

 

Edited May 14, 2020 by ParkerN

[Sir-Woody]

Not wanting to panic anyone

But that is 100% increase from yesterday !

Edited May 14, 2020 by Sir-Woody

[Why Me]

5 minutes ago, Sir-Woody said:

Not wanting to panic anyone

But that is 100% increase from yesterday !

No it's not. 1 divided by 0 is infinity. Well, actually it isn't - 1 (or any number) divided by 0 is undefined.

[ThailandRyan]

1 hour ago, JCP108 said:

They have almost completely eradicated Covid-19 infections here while the rest of the world is ravaged by it...with such miraculous success!!!!!  So, why not completely eradicate pneumonia?! As soon as that is at zero, what shall they eradicate next? I suggest driving motorcycles on sidewalks.

 

Just a suggestion. 

How about HIV

[Tingnongnoi]

1 hour ago, JCP108 said:

It says 50 people died from pneumonia in Thailand in all of 2020?!

according to that graph it says from 1st Jan to 9th May

[Jonathan Swift]

2 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

Anyone who takes comfort in Thai statistics is... well, I think we know... How many tests have they done? 

Anyone who takes comfort in Thai statistics might be better off here than in their home country. Such as, (duh) the US, with 80,000 dead and 1.2 million cases. I am QUITE comfortable here

[JCP108]

50 minutes ago, Tingnongnoi said:

according to that graph it says from 1st Jan to 9th May

So, in a typical year, about 22k people die in Thailand with the diagnosis of pneumonia. But, from Jan. 1 to now this year there have only been 50?!!!!!!! How does that happen?

[DrTuner]

4 hours ago, DirtyHarry55 said:

When questioned if COVID19 cases could have been mixed up with other diseases Dr. Taweesin claimed that since begin year the number of Pneumonia cases had dropped compared to 2019.

 

Here's another source for that graph:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aBziA_QYsbWlcltPNmJzQHM6GQEXfmC7/view

 

And it has the interesting footnote:

Quote

Data source: 1. National notifiable disease surveillance system (R506) ข้อมูล ณ วันที่ 13 พฤษภาคม 2563

Which lead me to here:

https://e-reports.boe.moph.go.th/ihr/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/9.-Real-Time-Surveillance.pdf

 

Which leads after a bit of googling about R506 to: 

https://apps.boe.moph.go.th/boe/onlineapp.php?idx=Y2Q=#sur-href

 

And trying to open their monitoring system for severe pneumonia in.. 
http://203.157.15.111/IEIP4/index.html

 

 

Yet another blocked site. Jolly.

 

The link that's supposed to go to the 506 system redirects to DDC: http://www.boe.moph.go.th/boedb/d506_1/

 

Somebody's been busy blocking it all.

 

After bit more digging found something: http://www.boe.moph.go.th/boedb/surdata/index.php , pneumonia: http://www.boe.moph.go.th/boedb/surdata/disease.php?ds=31

Edited May 14, 2020 by DrTuner

[DirtyHarry55]

4 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

Here's another source for that graph:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aBziA_QYsbWlcltPNmJzQHM6GQEXfmC7/view

 

And it has the interesting footnote:

Which lead me to here:

https://e-reports.boe.moph.go.th/ihr/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/9.-Real-Time-Surveillance.pdf

 

Which leads after a bit of googling about R506 to: 

https://apps.boe.moph.go.th/boe/onlineapp.php?idx=Y2Q=#sur-href

 

And trying to open their monitoring system for severe pneumonia in.. 
http://203.157.15.111/IEIP4/index.html

 

 

Yet another blocked site. Jolly.

Thanks very interesting seems that graph has been prepared to counter the Pneumonia argument.

[DrTuner]

17 minutes ago, DirtyHarry55 said:

Thanks very interesting seems that graph has been prepared to counter the Pneumonia argument.

You'll find this interesting:

 

From http://www.boe.moph.go.th/boedb/surdata/disease.php?ds=31

 

Seems like the R506 source and it doesn't seem to match with HDC data.

 

In any case, here's 2019 R506 for comparison:

 

Source: http://www.boe.moph.go.th/boedb/surdata/y62/mcd_Pneumonia_62.rtf (Just replace 62 with another year for more)

 

Here are BoE's apps: https://apps.boe.moph.go.th/

 

EDIT: As can be seen, the death count is way lower than HDC, which is raw death certificates. Probably same kind of "Confirmed" counting system in place as with COVID.

Edited May 14, 2020 by DrTuner

[offset]

9 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

You'll find this interesting:

 

From http://www.boe.moph.go.th/boedb/surdata/disease.php?ds=31

 

Seems like the R506 source and it doesn't seem to match with HDC data.

 

In any case, here's 2019 R506 for comparison:

 

Source: http://www.boe.moph.go.th/boedb/surdata/y62/mcd_Pneumonia_62.rtf (Just replace 62 with another year for more)

So what is that telling you

[DrTuner]

2 minutes ago, offset said:

So what is that telling you

That the R506 source uses some other method for counting deaths due to pneumonia than the death certificates, and that the data there is what is in the graph.

 

It also tells the same as the graph: the case count in 2020 was higher than 2019 in January and February. The drop since then might be because people aren't going to hospitals to be diagnosed because they are afraid of the covid. And it's unknown how long it takes to feed those stats to the system, could have a lag of months.

 

Not really that useful info at all, but good to know that system exists as well.

[saakura]

4 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

Anyone who takes comfort in Thai statistics is... well, I think we know... How many tests have they done? 

"Grapes are sour" comes to mind. 

[offset]

7 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

That the R506 source uses some other method for counting deaths due to pneumonia than the death certificates, and that the data there is what is in the graph.

 

It also tells the same as the graph: the case count in 2020 was higher than 2019 in January and February. The drop since then might be because people aren't going to hospitals to be diagnosed because they are afraid of the covid. And it's unknown how long it takes to feed those stats to the system, could have a lag of months.

 

Not really that useful info at all, but good to know that system exists as well.

Thank you

[DrTuner]

20 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

That the R506 source uses some other method for counting deaths due to pneumonia than the death certificates

After trawling a bit it looks like the source is government hospitals and some private hospitals.

 

HDC uses raw death certificates.

 

When you deduct R506 hospital reported deaths from HDC numbers you get the number of people who have pneumonia as the cause of death, but were not diagnosed in a hospital. It indicates the same as many other sources: majority of pneumonia deaths are at home, undiagnosed. No real surprise there.

 

Same problem would exist with COVID-19.

 

EDIT: The actual definition of the R506 source:

 

Quote

Indicator based surveillance or R506 cover all public health care facilities and some private hospitals. It is an electronic based in which responsible staff at the hospital send related information of the patient diagnosed with diseases under the surveillance into R506 program. Information from the hospitals will be sent once a week to related provincial health office, then to regional health office and the BOE. The BOE is developing real time indicator based surveillance system. 

https://e-reports.boe.moph.go.th/ihr/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/9.-Real-Time-Surveillance.pdf

Edited May 14, 2020 by DrTuner

[DrTuner]

For those interested, here's 'Communicable diseases surveillance system in Thailand' 
http://www.interfetpthailand.net/file/feth2018/download/04CD_surveillance_พญ.ภาวินี.pdf

 

And here's BoE's opinion on the reliability of the R506 numbers they were touting:

 

It's fairly obvious reading through that document that the Bureau of Epidemiology, which now has been promoted to a Department, has been very active in the COVID response as well. It's quite impressive what they do: https://apps.boe.moph.go.th/boeeng/download/AW_Annual_Mix 6212_14_r1.pdf

 

I haven't seen any of them in the news talking about it. They'd know.

Edited May 14, 2020 by DrTuner

[JCP108]

21 minutes ago, DrTuner said:

 

 

When you deduct R506 hospital reported deaths from HDC numbers you get the number of people who have pneumonia as the cause of death, but were not diagnosed in a hospital. It indicates the same as many other sources: majority of pneumonia deaths are at home, undiagnosed. No real surprise there.

 

Same problem would exist with COVID-19.

 

 

So, with pneumonia one could say that multiplying the R506 pneumonia data by a factor of approximately 137 gets you to the number that HDC is reporting for the first part of 2020 (outside BKK). 

 

If we were to apply that factor (137) to the 56 reported Covid-19 deaths, then that would produce a number around 7,672.

[DrTuner]

Here's a gem for those 'it's just a flu bro' fellas:

 

 

https://apps.boe.moph.go.th/boeeng/download/AW_Annual_Mix 6212_14_r1.pdf , page 328.

 

Reported CFR of Influenza in 2018 in Thailand is 0.02%. For pneumonia, 0.1%. COVID should be higher.

[DrTuner]

Just now, JCP108 said:

So, with pneumonia one could say that multiplying the R506 pneumonia data by a factor of approximately 137 gets you to the number that HDC is reporting for the first part of 2020 (outside BKK). 

 

If we were to apply that factor (137) to the 56 reported Covid-19 deaths, then that would produce a number around 7,672.

It's a stretch, but does give some indication of the magnitude of problems Thailand's reporting and diagnosis systems have.

[JCP108]

I'm interested if any of the adherents of the idea of government-reports-must-be-near-true-or-there-would-be-mounds-of-dead-bodies-you-couldn't-hide-and-social-media-posts have any helpful comments about the government reporting 50 deaths from pneumonia while their death certificate data attributes over 7,000 deaths to pneumonia in the same time period. I've been hearing that if reported 50-something Covid 19 deaths were really thousands, there would be mounds of dead bodies and social media reports...therefore, must really be only around 50. Does something different apply if we're talking about pneumonia?