Baht’s rise worries govt; BOT blames it on a weaker dollar

[jadee]

The BOT always gets criticized for being lazy, corrupt, incompetent, etc, but they're not wrong about the weakening dollar. The level of corruption and lack of transparency in the US right now is mind-blowing; the Trump administration literally just refused to say at a hearing where over $500 billion in taxpayer-backed stimulus loans went. Half a trillion dollars and Munuchin is just like "Nothin' to see here". Oh, and another round of monopoly-money-printing is in the pipeline. Rome, final days man. 

[Trillian]

15 minutes ago, mr mr said:

garbage. there is no way i would of watched the value of my money lose essentially half of its value. a few years of decline and i would of called it a day. that is just bad money management. period. 

I suspect very strongly that if you were a pensioner who had moved to Thailand to make it your home and had been living here for some years, you may not done what you think...but who knows.

[BritManToo]

13 minutes ago, Trillian said:

I suspect very strongly that if you were a pensioner who had moved to Thailand to make it your home and had been living here for some years, you may not done what you think...but who knows.

Pensioner here,

When I first came here in 2009, I spent a lot of money.

Now I just live quietly and spend a lot less, despite the 20% loss in currency exchange.

I still have four beer and hooker holidays a year in nearby countries though, COVID allowing.

 

 

Edited June 13, 2020 by BritManToo

[Airalee]

8 minutes ago, Trillian said:

I suspect very strongly that if you were a pensioner who had moved to Thailand to make it your home and had been living here for some years, you may not done what you think...but who knows.

I suspect that the truth lies somewhere in the middle.  Let me use USD for example.

 

If an expat came here in 1995 when the baht was 25 to the $ and then the crash to 50+ comes, what did that expat do?  Did he increase his expenditures and living standards to reflect his increased purchasing power, spending the same amount of dollars or did he keep his lifestyle at the same level and bank the rest?

 

Myself, I would bank the additional ฿, but that’s just me.  Most people I believe would go hog wild and increase their living standards.  Kind of like people going further into debt commensurate with a rising income.  That can come back to bite you in the end.

[Trillian]

1 minute ago, Airalee said:

I suspect that the truth lies somewhere in the middle.  Let me use USD for example.

 

If an expat came here in 1995 when the baht was 25 to the $ and then the crash to 50+ comes, what did that expat do?  Did he increase his expenditures and living standards to reflect his increased purchasing power, spending the same amount of dollars or did he keep his lifestyle at the same level and bank the rest?

 

Myself, I would bank the additional ฿, but that’s just me.  Most people I believe would go hog wild and increase their living standards.  Kind of like people going further into debt commensurate with a rising income.  That can come back to bite you in the end.

Your example would make the expat 90 years old, assuming he/she came here when they reached retirement age in 1995. 

 

I was thinking more along the lines of someone who came here post '97 crash, say between 2002 and 2005, at a time when the Baht exchange rate was quite attractive to pensioners, I believe most longer term TVF expat pensioners are in that group as many seem to reminisce about 36 to the Dollar and 60 to the Pound. For those people they wouldn't have known anything different, they may not even have been aware of the pre-1997 exchange rates and if they were, probably believed they would never return to those levels.

[Airalee]

9 minutes ago, Trillian said:

they may not even have been aware of the pre-1997 exchange rates and if they were, probably believed they would never return to those levels.

And that was their mistake.  Like the person who gets a high paying job and thinks that their income will only go up and not down.

 

Wouldn’t make them 90 either.  I bailed the rat race at 36.

[Youlike]

On 6/12/2020 at 2:23 PM, Baerboxer said:

 

Total nonsense.

 

What exactly do you think the BoT can do?

 

 

Print more money

[mr mr]

2 hours ago, Trillian said:

I suspect very strongly that if you were a pensioner who had moved to Thailand to make it your home and had been living here for some years, you may not done what you think...but who knows.

i never planned on staying here forever anyways. 43 now and in the future will probably move back home to canada or the north of scotland. 

 

unless you die before your wife most people who retire here will one day have to make some very difficult choices. add to that many of those choices were put off due to the fairy tale they lived here.

 

one night in bangkok makes a hard man crumble.  

[Trillian]

14 minutes ago, mr mr said:

i never planned on staying here forever anyways. 43 now and in the future will probably move back home to canada or the north of scotland. 

 

unless you die before your wife most people who retire here will one day have to make some very difficult choices. add to that many of those choices were put off due to the fairy tale they lived here.

 

one night in bangkok makes a hard man crumble.  

I know a couple of people who came to Thailand for a few months and are still here, fifteen and twenty years later. I know one person quite well who admits he is now too old to move back and says he has made his bed and now has to lay in it.....I've seen similar comments on this forum over the years.

[BritManToo]

1 hour ago, Trillian said:

I know a couple of people who came to Thailand for a few months and are still here, fifteen and twenty years later. I know one person quite well who admits he is now too old to move back and says he has made his bed and now has to lay in it.....I've seen similar comments on this forum over the years.

My 3 bed house in Thailand costs me 275pounds/month, 6 years back it was only 225pounds/month.

But a similar house in the Uk would cost 700-1000pounds/month.

 

The exchange rate would need to drop a lot more (to about 10bht/GBP) before it became worth my while to return to the UK to live.

[mr mr]

3 hours ago, Trillian said:

I know a couple of people who came to Thailand for a few months and are still here, fifteen and twenty years later. I know one person quite well who admits he is now too old to move back and says he has made his bed and now has to lay in it.....I've seen similar comments on this forum over the years.

lived here in my late 20's into early 30's first. left thailand for over 10 years before coming back last year. still own a house back home. have cars stored. a shed full of furniture and clothes etc. wife and son have canadian citizenship so leaving quick is no issue at all.

 

the thailand i fell in love with no longer exists for me. i struggle with the positive vs negative now and slowly the negative aspects are starting to outweigh the positive ones.

 

unless it is a sudden death or he dies before his wife. i bet your friend doesn't die here. that one person you mention.  

[Trillian]

4 hours ago, mr mr said:

lived here in my late 20's into early 30's first. left thailand for over 10 years before coming back last year. still own a house back home. have cars stored. a shed full of furniture and clothes etc. wife and son have canadian citizenship so leaving quick is no issue at all.

 

the thailand i fell in love with no longer exists for me. i struggle with the positive vs negative now and slowly the negative aspects are starting to outweigh the positive ones.

 

unless it is a sudden death or he dies before his wife. i bet your friend doesn't die here. that one person you mention.  

It's a bit different being 70 and 75 years old than it is being your age, especially if the person doesn't have that second house back in the old country and if they've been in a settled life style here for say the past twenty years, such people I think will stay forever, regardless.

 

Those who retired here around year 2000 will have raised families and had quite a few good years of decent exchange rates and a good standard of living. It's only in the past five years or so that exchange rates have really started to bite (for Pound holders). If at age 70 or more and after being here for 20+ years, with no second home and no real connections back home, there are few remaining options but to stay. Poster Britman above seems to be proof of what I've written, the exchange rate would have to get seriously tight before he would return.

 

[mikebell]

23 hours ago, mr mr said:

let me get this straight. you have sat and watched the value of your money be decimated over the last 10 years and done what exactly ? you stayed in a place and willfully watched your hard earned money vanish in front of your own eyes ? 

 

and your asking what to do ? you would love to take some action ? 

 

you're the reason facepalm memes were invented. 

So I come over here (to be with my son).  I am rich because my currency is worth a lot more against the baht.  I purchase a property.  I marry.  I make friends.  I have an extended family of whom I am fond & my money helps improve their lives.

As the baht strengthens, I have to make sacrifices;  I don't frequent bars/restaurants so much.  I don't make improvements to my property by employing local tradesmen.  I don't buy a car as often.  

Now I am not rich but can get by at the expense of the above people.  Whilst I can't take credit for the invention of facepalm memes, the silver lining is I became a writer and have publish four books - two of them Thai-based; one humorous.  

 

Now what action can I take?  I'm still awaiting your suggestions.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ChomDo]

One more reason for tourists to not return. It's simply not cheap in Thailand anymore with the strong THB and inflation...+ strict immigration rules compared to neighbouring countries.

[mr mr]

2 hours ago, mikebell said:

So I come over here (to be with my son).  I am rich because my currency is worth a lot more against the baht.  I purchase a property.  I marry.  I make friends.  I have an extended family of whom I am fond & my money helps improve their lives.

As the baht strengthens, I have to make sacrifices;  I don't frequent bars/restaurants so much.  I don't make improvements to my property by employing local tradesmen.  I don't buy a car as often.  

Now I am not rich but can get by at the expense of the above people.  Whilst I can't take credit for the invention of facepalm memes, the silver lining is I became a writer and have publish four books - two of them Thai-based; one humorous.  

 

Now what action can I take?  I'm still awaiting your suggestions.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

realize that sometimes in life our choices don't quite work out how we planned. settle up your life here and take your family home. 

 

seems you never really had any sort of contingency plan or back up if SHTF in a developing nation. BIG mistake right there. i am not talking about the wuwu either as the exchange rate has been an ongoing issue for many many many years. 

 

how long will you watch your hard earned money evaporate into thin air ? you think things are going to get any better in the coming years ? in 5 years from now what will the exchange rate be for you ? are you willing to bet it goes up ? 

 

the writing has been on the wall for over a decade. 

[mr mr]

6 hours ago, Trillian said:

If at age 70 or more and after being here for 20+ years, with no second home and no real connections back home, there are few remaining options but to stay.

should of thought of that before trying to live the dream their whole lives. women make men do crazy things eh. 

 

 

[mr mr]

2 hours ago, mikebell said:

the silver lining is I became a writer and have publish four books

this is awkward. published. 

[Trillian]

Hindsight is always 100%, long may you always have it.

[mikebell]

21 hours ago, mr mr said:

this is awkward. published. 

  On 6/13/2020 at 8:23 AM, mr mr said:

let me get this straight. you have sat and watched the value of your money be decimated over the last 10 years and done what exactly ? you stayed in a place and willfully watched your hard earned money vanish in front of your own eyes ? 

 

and your asking what to do ? you would love to take some action ? 

 

you're the reason facepalm memes were invented. 

 

Why is it awkward?  Your multiple posts are riddled with errors!  No capital letters; the occasional punctuation error.  Obviously my books are all checked when I am publishing.  When I am dashing off a response to an insensitive person, I don't take the same care.

[mikebell]

22 hours ago, mr mr said:

realize that sometimes in life our choices don't quite work out how we planned. settle up your life here and take your family home. 

 

seems you never really had any sort of contingency plan or back up if SHTF in a developing nation. BIG mistake right there. i am not talking about the wuwu either as the exchange rate has been an ongoing issue for many many many years. 

 

how long will you watch your hard earned money evaporate into thin air ? you think things are going to get any better in the coming years ? in 5 years from now what will the exchange rate be for you ? are you willing to bet it goes up ? 

 

the writing has been on the wall for over a decade. 

So, the answer, according to you, is to sell my property during a buyers' market and lose a million+ on the sale?  Purchase/rent a new property in the old country? Tell my Thai wife she must live in a cold climate forsaking her daughters, parents and siblings except for the occasional airfare alternate years for a visit?  Convince my former Government (UK) to grant her a residence visa?

 

All of the above will negate any saving on the exchange rate.  At 77 there's not enough years left to me to make up this lost sum.

[thainet]

12 minutes ago, mikebell said:

So, the answer, according to you, is to sell my property during a buyers' market and lose a million+ on the sale?  Purchase/rent a new property in the old country? Tell my Thai wife she must live in a cold climate forsaking her daughters, parents and siblings except for the occasional airfare alternate years for a visit?  Convince my former Government (UK) to grant her a residence visa?

 

All of the above will negate any saving on the exchange rate.  At 77 there's not enough years left to me to make up this lost sum.

So, the answer, according to you, is to sell my property during a buyers' market and lose a million+ on the sale?

Remember the selling price of a house is not what you think it should be. The true price is what people are willing to pay.

[rodknock]

they always come up with an excuse for the baht being so strong!

one answer in the am and another in the pm, changes day to day.

out of site, out of mind

[mikebell]

21 hours ago, thainet said:

So, the answer, according to you, is to sell my property during a buyers' market and lose a million+ on the sale?

Remember the selling price of a house is not what you think it should be. The true price is what people are willing to pay.

Exactly - the law of supply and demand. If a property is priced at 4 million and there are no new farangs; no Chinese speculators; the price must be reduced.  If the opposite is true - lots of foreigners happy to part with 100% of their money for a 49% share in a house, the owner could get his asking price.