The Pound is within about 60 satang of a 24 year low against the Baht, 37.30 (midpoint) back in March this year, the corona virus is one factor affecting the value of the Pound but the lack of confirmed trade deals is the main reason. Some longer range forecasts have the pair going to 36 this year, all the medium term forecasts seem to be around the low 30's. For expats who are reliant on Pounds for income, perhaps buying Pounds at 37 is not such a daft idea after all because there don't seem to be good reasons why the rate will improve that much?

 

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/data/currencies/gbp-pairs/GBPTHB-exchange-rate/

 

http://poundf.co.uk/pound-to-baht-forecast-gbp-to-thb#:~:text=GBP To USD Forecast 2020,%2C maximum 37.80%2C minimum 36.68.

Edited June 29, 20206 yr by Trillian

That´s what I call a high risk investment. Go for it!

I saw that one about low 30s. But look at the fundamentals. UK has a massive, massive amount of debt with no way to repay it in the short/medium term, in comparison Thailand's national debt is pretty small. Everytime there's bad news in the UK the Pound drops, but the Baht always seems to stay strong. The UK is in a right pickle, the GBP/THB is unlikely to go back up anytime soon. Thailand also has considerably more foreign exchange reserves, which seems weird but just goes to show how badly managed the UK has been over the last decade or so.

 

30.80 in 2024 is scary, but not really surprising. It should help keep those pesky Brits away.

Edited June 30, 20206 yr by SteveK

When the lunatics are running the asylum what do you expect? The Tory Brexiteers have already moved their funds offshore and have no loyalty to the UK only to their ability to wheel and deal internationally with no restrictions

Seems that brexit thing isn’t working out so well ????

1 hour ago, 5633572526 said:

Seems that brexit thing isn’t working out so well ????

The economic effect of that hasn't even started. This is just the overture - the fat lady is still in make up.

11 hours ago, Trillian said:

For expats who are reliant on Pounds for income, perhaps buying Pounds at 37 is not such a daft idea

Buy with what? Expats working HERE are reliant on THB for income.

10 minutes ago, stouricks said:

Buy with what? Expats working HERE are reliant on THB for income.

Only a small percentage of expats in Thailand are employed, the majority are retired and on fixed incomes such as pensions. If an expat is working here and has Baht income they are in a good position.

Edited June 30, 20206 yr by Trillian

Some posts using profane language have been removed:

 

8.) You will not post disruptive or inflammatory messages, vulgarities, obscenities or profanities.

4 hours ago, 5633572526 said:

Seems that brexit thing isn’t working out so well ????

Especially not in a combination with the coronavirus. ????

The pound is only going one way and the Thai baht is going in the opposite direction.

I wish I had a crystal ball 12 years ago when it was 70 baht to the pound ????

I got 38.2 on Tuesday when I did a TransferWise transaction.

USD/GBP is at the heart of the Pound Baht exchange rate issue and it doesn't look as though USD is going to strengthen any time soon, in fact it looks as though it may continue to weaken, even if this is an election year. USD has been weakening all year so unless the Pound finds good reason to get stronger and that seems highly unlikely right now, it looks as though the Baht is going to get even stronger against the Pound, ouch!

 

But as the article below says, these assumptions are based on there being no second wave of the virus and that seems improbable to me. In that event the Dollar would strengthen and it would be risk off for investment markets. So, where do you want to lose money, on the exchange rate or on your stock market investments, a rhetorical question of course.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-forex-poll-dollar/dollars-dominance-to-slowly-melt-away-over-coming-year-reuters-poll-idUSKBN24300L?il=0

Edited July 2, 20206 yr by Trillian

Now 42.2, nice to see it getting stronger against THB, Euro and dollar

38 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

Now 42.2, nice to see it getting stronger against THB, Euro and dollar

Surprisingly good execution on vaccinating their population. It appears that the UK will get back to a fully-functioning economy at least half-a-year ahead of the EU.

That performance, in such a crucial area, is lifting confidence that the UK will now outpace the EU in other ways. That will increase international engagement and investment. It also significantly alters the math on what appeared to be the EU's intention to crush the UK economy. The support for that approach may be harder to maintain if it cannot be done quickly, so, they may need to rethink it.

The dollar is the one to watch now. Their vaccination effort is also going well but the current level of money-printing may undermine the dollar's position as the world's default currency. If that starts to slip, they could be in big trouble. We may start seeing a lot of GoFundMe appeals from American expats who can no longer afford their girlfriends.

 

Edited February 22, 20215 yr by donnacha