Finance Ministry cuts 2020 GDP forecast to -8.5% 

By The Nation

 

Lavaron Sangsnit, director general at the Fiscal Policy Office

 

The Finance Ministry has revised down its GDP projection for 2020 to an 8.5-per-cent contraction and will launch additional measures to boost tourism.

 

Lavaron Sangsnit, director general at the Fiscal Policy Office, said  the ministry revised its forecast downwards from its original projection of 2.8 per cent growth.

 

“We forecast the economy will contract in a range of 8 to 9 per cent and exports in dollar terms will fall as much as 11 per cent, as Thailand’s trading partners have also been hit hard by Covid-19,” he told a press conference on Thursday (July 30).

 

Thailand’s 15 trading partners will suffer an average 4.1 per cent economic contraction, according to the Finance Ministry forecast.

 

Thailand’s economy is expected to plunge more than 10 per cent in the second quarter, figures for which are about to be released.

 

Despite the economic downturn, the baht is expected to remain strong at around Bt31.7/dollar this year. The Dubai crude oil price is forecast to be at $42 a barrel while the central bank is expected to maintain the policy rate at the current 0.5 per cent for the rest of the year, said Lavaron.

 

The number of foreign tourists will drop to 6.8 million from about 40 million last year.

 

The ministry is looking at additional measures to boost domestic tourism on top of the “Travel Together” scheme that subsidises 40 per cent of accommodation and travel costs for Thais holidaying in Thailand. So far, about 6,000 hotels of the total 60,000 nationwide have registered to participate in the scheme, he said.

 

The Finance Ministry is now working on new incentives for hotels to join. 

 

“We do not expect [the scheme] to boost economic growth but we want to redistribute income nationwide,” said Lavaron.

 

He ruled out more relief cash handouts, arguing that the economy has started to recover. 

 

“Out of our Bt1 trillion borrowing to aid economic recovery, about Bt200 billion is still unused and will be reserved for the future in case of a second wave of coronavirus,” he said.

 

The government will also accelerate infrastructure spending, which is expected to boost capital spending by 9.7 per cent year on year, he said.

However, private consumption is expected to fall by 2.6 per cent.

 

Due to the steep fall in exports and weakening consumption , private investment is expected to contract sharply by 12.6 per cent.

 

The Finance Ministry is more optimistic about next year’s outlook, forecasting GDP growth of between 4 and 5 per cent and export growth at 5 per cent. Foreign tourist arrivals next year are predicted to rise to 15 million-16 million.

 

The ministry expects that a coronavirus vaccine will be available by the middle of next year, which will boost the tourism industry.

 

Lavaron assured people that the government still had money to spend to boost the economy should a second wave of the virus occur. The Bank of Thailand recently forecast the Thai economy would shrink 8.1 per cent this year, though some research houses predict a 10-per-cent contraction.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30392184

 

-- © Copyright The Nation Thailand 2020-07-31

 

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6 minutes ago, webfact said:

Lavaron assured people that the government still had money to spend to boost the economy should a second wave of the virus occur. 

When did the first wave occur? 

Well, according to an article in theses pages not long ago, 90% of Thai people would like to see the back of foreigners on their way out, so in this regard, no great loss is it? or maybe they do like foreigners but only to come and lay their money down and than leave, so with one is it?...

Are they sure about 33 million tourist?....

I was thinking more along the lines of 66 million tourist

OR

Maybe  666  million tourist...........

Oh the shock and horror of it all.  I think we better look to the tall government buildings to see if they start jumping out the windows like in the great stock market crash in the US on Black Thursday 1929.  Of course they will have to go back to the history books and stop calling it black thursday as black lives matter....yes sarcasm

2 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Oh the shock and horror of it all.  I think we better look to the tall government buildings to see if they start jumping out the windows like in the great stock market crash in the US on Black Thursday 1929.  Of course they will have to go back to the history books and stop calling it black thursday as black lives matter....yes sarcasm

Monty python did a good rendition of this very scenario Ha ha ha !!!!!! 

I suggest that the FPO coordinate with TAT who's predictions are optimistic, nay, certain. ????

I wish I could get a job where you get paid to "forecast" lower tourist numbers 4 months after your country shuts down its border to all tourists (with no reopening "forecast").  ????

Open the borders, problem solved. Almost.

He ruled out more relief cash handouts, arguing that the economy has started to recover.

 

For who has the economy started to recover I see no ships only hardships ????

When will Thailand realize that their economy depends on foreign tourists? When more businesses go bankrupt this year?

5 hours ago, webfact said:

“We forecast the economy will contract in a range of 8 to 9 per cent and exports in dollar terms will fall as much as 11 per cent, as Thailand’s trading partners have also been hit hard by Covid-19,” he told a press conference on Thursday (July 30).

Revised from 2.8 which means they have no idea what they're talking about or hiding the truth from the public

 

Largely because of the strong baht , exports were struggling long before the virus struck. So how on earth does he expect a 5% increase next year , absolute nonsense.

foreign arrivals next year.... so what does he know that the government isnt telling anyone? what i wanna know is...if there is no vaccine what are thailand gonna do then?  sitting around waiting for a vaccine that might never come while you are losing massive amounts of cash. surely they gotta bite the bullet at some point and its gotta be better for their economy to do it sooner rather than later.  thailand are obessed with keeping a 'clean sheet' when everyday it looks more and more likely its just another virus that we will have to live with.

They keep the borders shut to tourists and kick out those foreign tourists who still happen to be in Thailand at the end of September. Big surprise that income will be way down!

 

"The number of foreign tourists will drop to 6.8 million from about 40 million last year."

 

Continue to keep the airports closed and you will not reach 6.5 m next year.

8 hours ago, ezzra said:

Well, according to an article in theses pages not long ago, 90% of Thai people would like to see the back of foreigners on their way out, 

You should have seen the face on the middle aged Thai lady when I occupied the seat next to her on a packed domestic flight this morning. It was clear what she was thinking when she saw this farang. I was very nearly tempted to mention Covid to her but restrained myself. I was the only farang onboard. In fact the whole journey from check-in at Hat Yai to Suvarnabhumi and then on to Phaya Thai by City Line I only saw one other westerner.

8 hours ago, ThailandRyan said:

Oh the shock and horror of it all.  I think we better look to the tall government buildings to see if they start jumping out the windows like in the great stock market crash in the US on Black Thursday 1929.  Of course they will have to go back to the history books and stop calling it black thursday as black lives matter....yes sarcasm

It was a tuesday

52 minutes ago, soi3eddie said:

You should have seen the face on the middle aged Thai lady when I occupied the seat next to her on a packed domestic flight this morning. It was clear what she was thinking when she saw this farang. I was very nearly tempted to mention Covid to her but restrained myself. I was the only farang onboard. In fact the whole journey from check-in at Hat Yai to Suvarnabhumi and then on to Phaya Thai by City Line I only saw one other westerner.

Had you said the word Covid, it would have probably have had the same effect as saying "Bomb"

38 minutes ago, Donekys said:

Black Thursday 1929

Stock prices began to decline in September and early October 1929, and on October 18 the fall began. Panic set in, and on October 24, Black Thursday, a record 12,894,650 shares were traded. This was the Start of the Market Collapse. The following Monday the market went into a freefall and then on Tuesday it completely caved in.

 

https://www.history.com/topics/great-depression/1929-stock-market-crash

Another shot in the dark article for someone who uses a crystal ball to make economic and financial predictions which really means he hasn't got a clue.

 

He would get my respect if he just said we can't speculate or know how many tourists we will have until Thailand and the rest of the world open their borders and the virus is contained. Not rocket science but very alien to people like this guy.

Let’s be fair once those borders are opened up it will be busy again . Where else are the worlds lonesome and destitute going to get a holiday girlfriend ? 

2 minutes ago, chrisandsu said:

Let’s be fair once those borders are opened up it will be busy again . Where else are the worlds lonesome and destitute going to get a holiday girlfriend ? 

The Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia ..... to name just a few.

I've found the cheapest gfs are in the Philippines.

Edited August 1, 20205 yr by BritManToo

Thailand wants to stop winging about the lost tourists, it has happened get over it and get the people back to work, tourist are not coming back for a long time here or anywhere else!

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

The Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia ..... to name just a few.

I've found the cheapest gfs are in the Philippines.

True dat ! Are they open right now ? 

23 hours ago, webfact said:

we want to redistribute income nationwide,”

Starting with the cabinet; the generals; the connected.

they'll also miss out on about 20 million cases of the pox..

8 hours ago, Darkside Gray said:

Thailand wants to stop winging about the lost tourists, it has happened get over it and get the people back to work, tourist are not coming back for a long time here or anywhere else!

except for bar, massage and restaurants catering to foreigners I'm finding most Thais are grateful that hoards of diseased tourists are NOT here..

On 7/31/2020 at 8:42 PM, ThailandRyan said:

Had you said the word Covid, it would have probably have had the same effect as saying "Bomb"

 

       Dirty farlangs and Covid , go hand in hand .

       I extend my sympathy to the dear , Old Lady ..

 

 

Edited August 1, 20205 yr by elliss