Thai second quarter economy likely shrank by record 12%-13% year-on-year: central bank

 

FILE PHOTO: A view of the Port of Bangkok, Thailand, March 25, 2016. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha

 

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's economy may have shrank by 12%-13% in the second quarter from a year earlier due to the impacts of the coronavirous pandemic, the central bank said on Friday, in what could be a record contraction.

 

However, the economy had improved in June from the previous month following the easing of a lockdown to curb the spread, which has battered tourism and domestic activity.

 

"The economy should have bottomed out. The second quarter probably shrank the deepest in history," Don Nakornthab, a director at the Bank of Thailand (BOT), told a briefing.

 

"At this point, we still look at a double-digit contraction, possibly minus 12%-13%," he said.

 

Thailand registered a record economic contraction of 12.5% in the second quarter of 1998, during the Asian financial crisis.

 

Don said official gross domestic product (GDP) data for April-June, which is due on Aug. 17, might be better than the BOT's estimates given the latest improved economic indicators.

 

"If the actual data is better than expected, there is a chance that the BOT will revise up its estimates when it reviews them in September," he said.

 

The BOT has forecast Southeast Asia's second-largest economy will contract by a record 8.1% this year.

 

In June, private consumption rose 6% from the previous month while investment increased 5.7%.

 

Exports, a key driver of growth, dropped 24.6% in June from a year earlier, after May's 23.6% decline.

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2020-07-31

 

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I'm surprised it's that little.

Tourism lost 100%, so that's 10-20% off the national income.

Exports down 25%.

 

It just doesn't add up!

I make it between 30-40% off the economy.

Edited July 31, 20206 yr by BritManToo

100-99

 

get the calculator

The UK lost 25% of it's GDP in a month. 

 

USA economy shrank by 39% last quarter ! 

 

Guess which country just reported growth - CHINA

 

Life huh

Edited August 1, 20206 yr by AndrewMciver

When you let your currency run wild with speculation and few controls, and quarantine all incoming tourists—it should come as no surprise the economy shrinks.

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

When you let your currency run wild with speculation and few controls, and quarantine all incoming tourists—it should come as no surprise the economy shrinks.

I doubt it is a surprise to anybody. How much is the question.

1 hour ago, Isaan sailor said:

When you let your currency run wild with speculation and few controls, and quarantine all incoming tourists—it should come as no surprise the economy shrinks.

And we have the obligatory Baht whinge. 

15 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I'm surprised it's that little.

Tourism lost 100%, so that's 10-20% off the national income.

Exports down 25%.

 

It just doesn't add up!

I make it between 30-40% off the economy.

News today ...........

Thai Banks are preparing for 40% NPL (surely that can't be right?).

Bank shares have lost 6% in the past week.

That's pretty much the financial sky falling in Thailand.

Edited August 1, 20206 yr by BritManToo

Likely...may have...? Oh for goodness sake....

16 hours ago, BritManToo said:

I'm surprised it's that little.

Tourism lost 100%, so that's 10-20% off the national income.

Exports down 25%.

 

It just doesn't add up!

I make it between 30-40% off the economy.

Cannot help but think that those figures are being helped by the tourists that were still here before airports shut down completely, orders ordered with companies before covid raised its ugly head and were being finished off and Thais that ordered domestic products prior to the nuthouse worldwide response 

 

The real impact will be shown I think in the 3rd qtr, when tourism IS down 100%, no exports of NEW orders and mass unemployment effecting domestic buying

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

News today ...........

Thai Banks are preparing for 40% NPL (surely that can't be right?).

Bank shares have lost 6% in the past week.

That's pretty much the financial sky falling in Thailand.

But they'll polish the tu*d and make it look shiny for the public.

5 hours ago, BritManToo said:

News today ...........

Thai Banks are preparing for 40% NPL (surely that can't be right?).

Bank shares have lost 6% in the past week.

That's pretty much the financial sky falling in Thailand.

I also think that the 40% NPL projection from Commercial Banks is mind boggling.

If that amount is correct, then its more than the Sky falling in on Thailand.

The Analyst in the same report stated also that value of Bank assets were going to fall even farther going into 2021, after the Gov,t subsidies had finished

3 hours ago, hotchilli said:

But they'll polish the tu*d and make it look shiny for the public.

Pretty hard to polish that Big a T^@d

 

7 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

I also think that the 40% NPL projection from Commercial Banks is mind boggling.

If that amount is correct, then its more than the Sky falling in on Thailand.

The Analyst in the same report stated also that value of Bank assets were going to fall even farther going into 2021, after the Gov,t subsidies had finished

Pretty hard to polish that Big a T^@d

 

Not when you have the right tools in house to do it.

quite funny folks on here pointing fingers at Thailand's economics, look in the mirror lately lol..

On 7/31/2020 at 8:05 PM, BritManToo said:

I'm surprised it's that little.

Tourism lost 100%, so that's 10-20% off the national income.

Exports down 25%.

 

It just doesn't add up!

I make it between 30-40% off the economy.

Did you do the sums on the back of a fag packet?

Central bank made a quick call to TAT to make sure the correct formulation of figures is used by the look of it ???? 

These forecast make me chuckle with words like, likely, possibly, maybe, could have, maybe.

 

I know maths isn't the best in the country but adding a few sums up shouldn't be that hard, well for most countries it isn't.

The gray economy around tourism is down 100% for sure. No idea if that's included at all. It's going to be a murderous year financially. The effects will be hitting home for many in the last quarter and next year after all savings are gone, credit is maxed out and jobs are not there. Will be nasty.