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Sonthi warns crisis likely in May


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Sonthi warns crisis likely in May

(BangkokPost.com) - Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont confirmed Wednesday that he had received information from Council for National Security chairman Sonthi Boonyaratkalin that a "national crisis" could occur next month.

According to the premier, Gen Sonthi had warned him that May could be the period when all of the problems reach critical points.

See here for full article.

Any ideas on what is planned? They make it sound like everything can be managed or prevented, and yet the govt is issuing a "national crisis alert"?!?

Edited by Maestro
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I hope everything gets better here, but for the mean time, im glad i've got our one way tickets out of here.........

I also rememebr reading in another thread about someone else prediciting "times of crisis" to start occuring in June, and with this announcement, it seems that something will deffinently happen over the next few months.

Edited by aussiestyle1983
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Perhaps if he would have done what he said he was going to do when he took over none of this would 'potentially' going to happen. He was supposed to arrange for a democratic election very shortly after taking over. Instead, he's done close to nothing... other than come up with new rules to muck with foreigners :D

He is now about to reap what he has sewn.. maybe :o I, of course, hope nothing bad happens.

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I predicted the fist coup last year, long before it was seriously fashionable to do so, and amazingly I was the first to break the news on Thai Visa, when an incredulous friend, who had been doubting my mental faculties, called me in a very agitated state to tell me that he had heard from his Thai fiancée, (whose family was close to Thaksin), that the coup was actually in progress.

About a month back, I predicted a second coup would happen in the next couple of months or so, and I now believe this more than ever.

I think Gen Sonthi and his henchman will seek to consolidate their grip on power with another coup, and this time there will be no pretence to hand back to civlians any time soon.

It will get worse before it gets better - mark my words.

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I predicted the fist coup last year, long before it was seriously fashionable to do so, and amazingly I was the first to break the news on Thai Visa, when an incredulous friend, who had been doubting my mental faculties, called me in a very agitated state to tell me that he had heard from his Thai fiancée, (whose family was close to Thaksin), that the coup was actually in progress.

About a month back, I predicted a second coup would happen in the next couple of months or so, and I now believe this more than ever.

I think Gen Sonthi and his henchman will seek to consolidate their grip on power with another coup, and this time there will be no pretence to hand back to civlians any time soon.

It will get worse before it gets better - mark my words.

Darn Moby, you're no fun :D:o I hope you're wrong, but I wouldn't bet against your prediction. :D

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well perhaps this crisis could arise based on the result of the court ruling whether to dissolve parties such as Thai Rak Thai, and Democrat (for the case being heard about bribing small parties to contest in the election last year)

whichever way the verdict goes, theres potential for trouble. If TRT is dissolved then the pro Thaksin group with PTV will likely start a rally. If Democrat were to be dissolved too...then you are looking at even bigger troubles!!!

on the other hand if decision is a green for both parties...this does not necessarily mean all will be cool and calm, as the PAD and the Sonthi Lim ally will not want to let it go easily....

personal opinion only ofcourse :o

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If you drop for the moment that PTV is an innocent victim of media crackdown and look at the worst possible outcome then Sonthi is right.

For Thaksin and his cohorts it's now or never. Tax verdicts, court verdicts, constitution referendum - if the junta can survive throgh this unscathed Thaksin and TRT will be done for good. They won't have any ground to put up a fight anymore.

Is PTV a serious challenge to the junta? Can they organize enough people to be taken seriously? Are they willing to provoke violence? In case of the crackdown, will they attract sympathy of the regular anti-coup movement?

If the answer to all these question is yes then the government has to be prepared to take a lot of heat.

None of this, btw, has anything to do with democracy or freedom or naive idealism - it's Thaksin fighting for his money and power.

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If you drop for the moment that PTV is an innocent victim of media crackdown and look at the worst possible outcome then Sonthi is right.

For Thaksin and his cohorts it's now or never. Tax verdicts, court verdicts, constitution referendum - if the junta can survive throgh this unscathed Thaksin and TRT will be done for good. They won't have any ground to put up a fight anymore.

Is PTV a serious challenge to the junta? Can they organize enough people to be taken seriously? Are they willing to provoke violence? In case of the crackdown, will they attract sympathy of the regular anti-coup movement?

If the answer to all these question is yes then the government has to be prepared to take a lot of heat.

None of this, btw, has anything to do with democracy or freedom or naive idealism - it's Thaksin fighting for his money and power.

You took the words from my mouth, I could not have put it better as that is exactly what is going on.

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If you drop for the moment that PTV is an innocent victim of media crackdown and look at the worst possible outcome then Sonthi is right.

For Thaksin and his cohorts it's now or never. Tax verdicts, court verdicts, constitution referendum - if the junta can survive throgh this unscathed Thaksin and TRT will be done for good. They won't have any ground to put up a fight anymore.

Is PTV a serious challenge to the junta? Can they organize enough people to be taken seriously? Are they willing to provoke violence? In case of the crackdown, will they attract sympathy of the regular anti-coup movement?

If the answer to all these question is yes then the government has to be prepared to take a lot of heat.

None of this, btw, has anything to do with democracy or freedom or naive idealism - it's Thaksin fighting for his money and power.

Plus, I am not much into political analyst, but I am beginning to understand the political situation now. For personal power and greed, not for the country and it's people. Good analytical mind power there you got.

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I predicted the fist coup last year, long before it was seriously fashionable to do so, and amazingly I was the first to break the news on Thai Visa, when an incredulous friend, who had been doubting my mental faculties, called me in a very agitated state to tell me that he had heard from his Thai fiancée, (whose family was close to Thaksin), that the coup was actually in progress.

About a month back, I predicted a second coup would happen in the next couple of months or so, and I now believe this more than ever.

I think Gen Sonthi and his henchman will seek to consolidate their grip on power with another coup, and this time there will be no pretence to hand back to civlians any time soon.

It will get worse before it gets better - mark my words.

Mobi, if you take a look at the content of several other threads in the news clippings, you will see that plus is on the spot. Sonthi wants to retire and he took the burden to keep Thaksin from becoming a dictator. HRH endorsed the coup and it has been Thaksin working behind the scenes to discredit it.

Don’t forget Thaksin hired some powerful political brains and I have been keeping an eye on the tactics. Some of the methods used seem to be employing NLP to persuade the masses, but I can’t be sure as I have too few pieces. A lot looks like “just save my ass” tactics as plus says.

Thaksin has lost much of his solid power like key people in key places, but he can still persuade the masses, particularly if he can make thinks look other that they actually are. If you consider Thaksin has been very deliberately causing delays to both save his own and at the same time make the government look bad. Then turning around and planting the idea the government is too slow and incapable. Soon people will forget that challenging the government is actually supporting Thaksin if the secondary theme of get rid of the Junta is frequently used.

Simply if Sonthi can keep this political unrest from occurring in public, then Thaksin has sung his last song. Then things can proceed along the timetable working toward December elections much more smoothly.

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I predicted the fist coup last year, long before it was seriously fashionable to do so, and amazingly I was the first to break the news on Thai Visa, when an incredulous friend, who had been doubting my mental faculties, called me in a very agitated state to tell me that he had heard from his Thai fiancée, (whose family was close to Thaksin), that the coup was actually in progress.

About a month back, I predicted a second coup would happen in the next couple of months or so, and I now believe this more than ever.

I think Gen Sonthi and his henchman will seek to consolidate their grip on power with another coup, and this time there will be no pretence to hand back to civlians any time soon.

It will get worse before it gets better - mark my words.

Mobi, if you take a look at the content of several other threads in the news clippings, you will see that plus is on the spot. Sonthi wants to retire and he took the burden to keep Thaksin from becoming a dictator. HRH endorsed the coup and it has been Thaksin working behind the scenes to discredit it.

Don’t forget Thaksin hired some powerful political brains and I have been keeping an eye on the tactics. Some of the methods used seem to be employing NLP to persuade the masses, but I can’t be sure as I have too few pieces. A lot looks like “just save my ass” tactics as plus says.

Thaksin has lost much of his solid power like key people in key places, but he can still persuade the masses, particularly if he can make thinks look other that they actually are. If you consider Thaksin has been very deliberately causing delays to both save his own and at the same time make the government look bad. Then turning around and planting the idea the government is too slow and incapable. Soon people will forget that challenging the government is actually supporting Thaksin if the secondary theme of get rid of the Junta is frequently used.

Simply if Sonthi can keep this political unrest from occurring in public, then Thaksin has sung his last song. Then things can proceed along the timetable working toward December elections much more smoothly.

I hear what you say, I respect your views and I hope that you are right.

May I suggest that you read over what you have written and ask yourself if you truly believe that what you say is likely to happen?

We will probably never know if Sonthi originally planned to stick to his timetable to return the country to democracy, but almost from the word go it has become a distant and impossible dream.

I am quite sure that there is now a different agenda on the table -

partly because there will be no other way to really thwart Thaksin and cohorts and see him permantly off;

partly because the new draft constitution is a mess and will never be ready in time;

partly because the 'democratic' alternative to Thaksin is probably not much better than the Thaksin version;

partly because Sarayudh and his Dad's army have made a total balls up of everything;

partly because certain gentlemen currently in power have developed a taste for it....

...I could go on... and on...

Let us see who is right.

I honestly hope I am wrong.

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We will probably never know if Sonthi originally planned to stick to his timetable to return the country to democracy, but almost from the word go it has become a distant and impossible dream.

Hmmm, I think it is VERY possible now.

I am quite sure that there is now a different agenda on the table -

partly because there will be no other way to really thwart Thaksin and cohorts and see him permantly off;

Tax cases, Ratchada land deal, and TRT dissolution will legally put Thaksin out of politics for a long time.

partly because the new draft constitution is a mess and will never be ready in time;

It is NOT exactly a mess - it's all those numerous "critics" who want each of their views included right away and scream faul if no one listens to them. The CDA itself accepted the draft without any real problems and they WILL revise it. Revisions and inclusions won't stop the critics, though, we better get used to it. General people, btw, will have no alternative but to approve the constitution and get on with their normal lives.

partly because the 'democratic' alternative to Thaksin is probably not much better than the Thaksin version;

I don't think that generals running the country themselves is even an option. At least after "democratic" elections no one would blame them for every little thing.

partly because Sarayudh and his Dad's army have made a total balls up of everything;

As I said - I don't believe the generals think they can run the country better than Sorayud.

partly because certain gentlemen currently in power have developed a taste for it....

Oh! Someone is ENJOYING the current situation? Or is it an "acquired" taste? :o

Edited by Plus
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I predicted the fist coup last year, long before it was seriously fashionable to do so, and amazingly I was the first to break the news on Thai Visa, when an incredulous friend, who had been doubting my mental faculties, called me in a very agitated state to tell me that he had heard from his Thai fiancée, (whose family was close to Thaksin), that the coup was actually in progress.

About a month back, I predicted a second coup would happen in the next couple of months or so, and I now believe this more than ever.

I think Gen Sonthi and his henchman will seek to consolidate their grip on power with another coup, and this time there will be no pretence to hand back to civlians any time soon.

It will get worse before it gets better - mark my words.

Mobi, if you take a look at the content of several other threads in the news clippings, you will see that plus is on the spot. Sonthi wants to retire and he took the burden to keep Thaksin from becoming a dictator. HRH endorsed the coup and it has been Thaksin working behind the scenes to discredit it.

Don’t forget Thaksin hired some powerful political brains and I have been keeping an eye on the tactics. Some of the methods used seem to be employing NLP to persuade the masses, but I can’t be sure as I have too few pieces. A lot looks like “just save my ass” tactics as plus says.

Thaksin has lost much of his solid power like key people in key places, but he can still persuade the masses, particularly if he can make thinks look other that they actually are. If you consider Thaksin has been very deliberately causing delays to both save his own and at the same time make the government look bad. Then turning around and planting the idea the government is too slow and incapable. Soon people will forget that challenging the government is actually supporting Thaksin if the secondary theme of get rid of the Junta is frequently used.

Simply if Sonthi can keep this political unrest from occurring in public, then Thaksin has sung his last song. Then things can proceed along the timetable working toward December elections much more smoothly.

I hear what you say, I respect your views and I hope that you are right.

May I suggest that you read over what you have written and ask yourself if you truly believe that what you say is likely to happen?

We will probably never know if Sonthi originally planned to stick to his timetable to return the country to democracy, but almost from the word go it has become a distant and impossible dream.

I am quite sure that there is now a different agenda on the table -

partly because there will be no other way to really thwart Thaksin and cohorts and see him permantly off;

partly because the new draft constitution is a mess and will never be ready in time;

partly because the 'democratic' alternative to Thaksin is probably not much better than the Thaksin version;

partly because Sarayudh and his Dad's army have made a total balls up of everything;

partly because certain gentlemen currently in power have developed a taste for it....

...I could go on... and on...

Let us see who is right.

I honestly hope I am wrong.

When I make my predictions I first look t the players and see how they would probably respond to a scenario. For the moment I am not even considering the democrats because it is clearly a battle between Sonthi and Thaksin.

Point; Thaksin has always gone directly after the people who stand in his way. If you think just because he is out of power that will not happen you are wrong. That part of Thaksin is part of his personality. If you think back some of the things Thaksin did, some people may conclude Thaksin was looking to push HRH out of the picture and most certainly Prem. That is up to your own interpretation if that is true or not but it does match his personality and history.

As for the democrats for the most part the seem to have been behaving and not making a fuss in the news. The only things more or less have to do with May 30 and the ruling if they will be around June 1 or not.

What makes me consider that NLP is being used is the attack is very general and not at any one specific person. Let the people find their own enemies and harness that power for yourself appears to be what is going on to some extent in the PTV / TRT / Thaksin camp.

As for the new constitution, I see that as a bit of a stand alone process. Sonthi has his hands full without the need to go and bother them. He does have a vested interest to see that he will not get burned later for trying to do the right thing. No doubt Thaksin will try to place more land mines in Sonthi’s path hoping to take him down. As long as Sonthi’s actions are not self serving and seen to be in the best interest of King and country he should not have too much of a problem.

I do consider your point as a possible outcome as I have been wrong before. The more pieces you can see the clearer the picture is. Up to now I have only seen complaints that have been suggested from the Thaksin camp. Unless I am missing some major independent criticism from some other Thai entity that does not get served by putting the Junta or government down, I can’t substantiate the negative view of the Junta or government. All complaints I have seen thus far have been self serving.

Edited by John K
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So it should be very interesting in May. The script writers must be at the ready. The current military Junta is firstly going to overthrow the governemnt that itself put in place in October. Then because they realise perhaps they erred in that inital process they are going to depose themselves.

The thing I want to know is, who is going to be the last person within the current military junta to lock himself up and throw the key outside the bars?

As life primarily only revolves around money, or at least the love of it, who is going to make large gains this time round? Perhaps one should watch as to who are significant sellers of stock in the next week or 2 as a clue? or perhaps we should take turns in observing movements out of the airports, especially monitoring those with a significant number of bags !

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who is going to make large gains this time round? Perhaps one should watch as to who are significant sellers of stock in the next week or 2 as a clue?

not all money is made in stock :D

do a search on how many posts in state enterprise boards has Gen Saprang got since CNS has been in power :o not to mention contract by CNS given to his brother to conduct smear campaign against the former PM, or his yet another brother whos been put in charge of the mass transport....just to name what I know at top of my head.

and ohhh suvarnaphum is full of cracks? and not enough toilets? and cancel the deal with King Power? all these involve awarding new contracts.....so go figure.

not to mention the move back to DonMuang.......giving rental income to who?

and then theres the military budget increase.....and emergency purchase of weapons and such.......

ahhh and THEN theres the increase of 15/30?% to the CNS salary...all this while allowance payment to soldiers down in deep south are constantly paid late.........

but then what do I know.....since as per most BAngkokians....people like us are stupid and those that support the coup are the smart ones saving the country :D

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Perhaps if he would have done what he said he was going to do when he took over none of this would 'potentially' going to happen. He was supposed to arrange for a democratic election very shortly after taking over. Instead, he's done close to nothing... other than come up with new rules to muck with foreigners :D

He is now about to reap what he has sewn.. maybe :D I, of course, hope nothing bad happens.

Mmm, a ''democratic'' election was planned but the coup brought that to a halt, it would have been useless with the same TRT tactics going on.

Shortly after the coup, an election was promised WITHIN A YEAR, not shortly after taking over.

Thaksin did not need a smear campagn against him, he had sh!t smeared all over his face and that was his own mess.

The predicted unrest in May or around that period is clearly coming from talk of supporters of the old government fearing many to be found guilty, TRT disappearing and more later on. There were more reasons for unrest under Thaksin's rule. I'd have no pity this time around... This country has had enough stupidity.

My wife happened to mention to a cab driver tonight how the new airport was filled with annoying people trying to make a fast buck on tourists arriving and what a mess it was. The cab driver's reply was: "If Thaksin was still around, it wouldn't be like that" :o

Edited by Tony Clifton
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I predicted the fist coup last year, long before it was seriously fashionable to do so, and amazingly I was the first to break the news on Thai Visa, when an incredulous friend, who had been doubting my mental faculties, called me in a very agitated state to tell me that he had heard from his Thai fiancée, (whose family was close to Thaksin), that the coup was actually in progress.

About a month back, I predicted a second coup would happen in the next couple of months or so, and I now believe this more than ever.

I think Gen Sonthi and his henchman will seek to consolidate their grip on power with another coup, and this time there will be no pretence to hand back to civlians any time soon.

It will get worse before it gets better - mark my words.

Mobi, if you take a look at the content of several other threads in the news clippings, you will see that plus is on the spot. Sonthi wants to retire and he took the burden to keep Thaksin from becoming a dictator. HRH endorsed the coup and it has been Thaksin working behind the scenes to discredit it.

Don’t forget Thaksin hired some powerful political brains and I have been keeping an eye on the tactics. Some of the methods used seem to be employing NLP to persuade the masses, but I can’t be sure as I have too few pieces. A lot looks like “just save my ass” tactics as plus says.

Thaksin has lost much of his solid power like key people in key places, but he can still persuade the masses, particularly if he can make thinks look other that they actually are. If you consider Thaksin has been very deliberately causing delays to both save his own and at the same time make the government look bad. Then turning around and planting the idea the government is too slow and incapable. Soon people will forget that challenging the government is actually supporting Thaksin if the secondary theme of get rid of the Junta is frequently used.

Simply if Sonthi can keep this political unrest from occurring in public, then Thaksin has sung his last song. Then things can proceed along the timetable working toward December elections much more smoothly.

I hear what you say, I respect your views and I hope that you are right.

May I suggest that you read over what you have written and ask yourself if you truly believe that what you say is likely to happen?

We will probably never know if Sonthi originally planned to stick to his timetable to return the country to democracy, but almost from the word go it has become a distant and impossible dream.

I am quite sure that there is now a different agenda on the table -

partly because there will be no other way to really thwart Thaksin and cohorts and see him permantly off;

partly because the new draft constitution is a mess and will never be ready in time;

partly because the 'democratic' alternative to Thaksin is probably not much better than the Thaksin version;

partly because Sarayudh and his Dad's army have made a total balls up of everything;

partly because certain gentlemen currently in power have developed a taste for it....

...I could go on... and on...

Let us see who is right.

I honestly hope I am wrong.

Mobi,

Interesting stuff - and not far off the mark in my opinion.

I think, however, you are wrong in one important point. I believe that 'Sonthi' will consolidate 'his' power through the election process rather than than through a second coup. Watch how the politics shapes up over the next few months - the military are easily capable of winning power through the ballot box one way or another and the way things are shaping up they are left with little choice.

It wouldnt even surprise me if Sonthi emerges as the next PM after retiring from the military in October this year.

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Very possible outcome Abrak, Sonthi does appear to have the smarts it takes to run the country. He on the intellectual level seems to a good match for Thaksin. He shows a thought process that goes past one or 2 steps and to me that is high marks. No doubt part of the reason he made it to the top post in the military. I think it will have a lot to do on the final version of the constitution if he is eligible to be PM. I can see he may be motivated to do that if he feels that the stability of the country is a bit shaky and needs more time to settle down. I think that would be more for country and not himself.

I have not looked at what his plans were prior to the coup in any great detail, but it seems he just wanted to kick back and pass the reigns to the next man in line.

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Very possible outcome Abrak, Sonthi does appear to have the smarts it takes to run the country. He on the intellectual level seems to a good match for Thaksin. He shows a thought process that goes past one or 2 steps and to me that is high marks. No doubt part of the reason he made it to the top post in the military. I think it will have a lot to do on the final version of the constitution if he is eligible to be PM. I can see he may be motivated to do that if he feels that the stability of the country is a bit shaky and needs more time to settle down. I think that would be more for country and not himself.

I have not looked at what his plans were prior to the coup in any great detail, but it seems he just wanted to kick back and pass the reigns to the next man in line.

You make it sound like a nice idea - actually it is a recipe for disaster. The sooner the military get out of politics (again!!) the better. The key problem would be that Bangkok would never elect a military linked party (probably choosing the Democrats by default). You would the be in the uncomfortable position of having a military linked government with no support in Bangkok. That - as history has shown - is a recipe for unrest and political instability. It wouldnt be long before people were on the streets.....

No Thai government has gone its full term without having support from MPs within Bangkok (even though they represent less than 10% of parliament).

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Very possible outcome Abrak, Sonthi does appear to have the smarts it takes to run the country. He on the intellectual level seems to a good match for Thaksin. He shows a thought process that goes past one or 2 steps and to me that is high marks. No doubt part of the reason he made it to the top post in the military. I think it will have a lot to do on the final version of the constitution if he is eligible to be PM. I can see he may be motivated to do that if he feels that the stability of the country is a bit shaky and needs more time to settle down. I think that would be more for country and not himself.

I have not looked at what his plans were prior to the coup in any great detail, but it seems he just wanted to kick back and pass the reigns to the next man in line.

You make it sound like a nice idea - actually it is a recipe for disaster. The sooner the military get out of politics (again!!) the better. The key problem would be that Bangkok would never elect a military linked party (probably choosing the Democrats by default). You would the be in the uncomfortable position of having a military linked government with no support in Bangkok. That - as history has shown - is a recipe for unrest and political instability. It wouldnt be long before people were on the streets.....

No Thai government has gone its full term without having support from MPs within Bangkok (even though they represent less than 10% of parliament).

I am not talking about any party affiliation, I am simply talking about motive and ability. The political landscape will be very different by October and beyond and way to far out to predict.

I am not even sure how many next steps remain before the end of the legal process against Thaksin, there always seems to be another one.

I understand you point about history and that it does tend to repeat itself. Don’t tell colpyat I said that. I at least am hopeful Thaksin changed the playing filed enough and the new constitution has enough teeth that it will not happen again. But that is more of a wish than anything else at this point. Lets get past May and take another snapshot, I am sure things will look different then. There are too many variables to consider this far out.

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Thai embassies worldwide to remain alert against possible protests

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has instructed the Thai embassies worldwide to remain alert to possible anti-government demonstrations on May 4.

The Director General of the Department of Information, and Spokesperson to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Tharit Charungwat (ธฤต จรุงวัฒน์), said that rumors of a possible protest initiated by old political powers in front of the Thai embassies in Britain, the US, Japan, and China are being investigated. Mr. Tharit confirms that flyers alleging that Thailand is currently in a political crisis have indeed been distributed.

The flyers called on protesters to gather in opposition to the government and the Council for National Security on May 4. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has instructed Thai embassies worldwide to remain alert for unrest.

Meanwhile Mr.Tharit reported that the incident in which Mr. Thaksin Shinawatra attended a trade development meeting in Qatar was entirely permissable while both the Thai and Qatar governments have been informed of the matter.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 26 April 2007

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OK so if I can trust this report, only the countries Thaksin has been hanging out in have rallies. If true it supports my post that it is only the Thaksin camp. If the rallies are more widespread then I need to consider this new event. Are there any other reports of rallies in other countries?

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