The Thai Economy Is In Crisis

[Mid]

BANGKOK (Thomson Financial)

08/31/07 10:21 am (GMT)

Thailand posted a current account surplus in July, reversing a year earlier deficit, as strong revenue from tourism offset a slowdown in exports, the Bank of Thailand said Friday.

snip

forextv.com

[Carmine6]

I use three Thailand shippers regularly. All three made appointments this week and sent in a pooyai to "chat". Appears their business is off somewhere around 20% down over last year and they are calling out the big guns to shake the bushes. These folks dont ship for the big guys, companies like Toyota have their own shipping, but they ship for the small to medium size businesses, the kind that make up the bedrock of an export economy.

http://www.bot.or.th/BOTHomepage/databank/...ance/tab47e.asp

The July export figures are now posted. The detail is uglier than the overall figures for some categories. Overall, in baht terms, exports fell 8.1% June to July. July 2007 was 4.6% lower than last July. The year to date total which had been 6.7% higher through June is now only 5.0% higher than last year. Per your experience, August seems to have been bad like July.

The baht did not really strengthen much until about January so it makes sense that the recent months have been the weakest ones.

The quantities exported looks troubling. Sugar was a bright spot, 188% higher tonnage than last year and 133% higher in baht terms. Note a 20% price decline in baht.

Agricultural products in total were -17% in baht compared to the prior July. Fishery was -7% in baht compared to the prior July.

Here are other major categories July to July:

Canned fish, -3% tonnage, -3% in baht

Rice, -22% tonnage, -20% in baht

Rubber +4% tonnage, -18% in baht

Tapioca products -35% tonnage, -19%

Shrimp +13% tonnage, -2% in baht

[VegasVic]

I use three Thailand shippers regularly. All three made appointments this week and sent in a pooyai to "chat". Appears their business is off somewhere around 20% down over last year and they are calling out the big guns to shake the bushes. These folks dont ship for the big guys, companies like Toyota have their own shipping, but they ship for the small to medium size businesses, the kind that make up the bedrock of an export economy.

http://www.bot.or.th/BOTHomepage/databank/...ance/tab47e.asp

The July export figures are now posted. The detail is uglier than the overall figures for some categories. Overall, in baht terms, exports fell 8.1% June to July. July 2007 was 4.6% lower than last July. The year to date total which had been 6.7% higher through June is now only 5.0% higher than last year. Per your experience, August seems to have been bad like July.

The baht did not really strengthen much until about January so it makes sense that the recent months have been the weakest ones.

The quantities exported looks troubling. Sugar was a bright spot, 188% higher tonnage than last year and 133% higher in baht terms. Note a 20% price decline in baht.

Agricultural products in total were -17% in baht compared to the prior July. Fishery was -7% in baht compared to the prior July.

Here are other major categories July to July:

Canned fish, -3% tonnage, -3% in baht

Rice, -22% tonnage, -20% in baht

Rubber +4% tonnage, -18% in baht

Tapioca products -35% tonnage, -19%

Shrimp +13% tonnage, -2% in baht

In reading some of the posts here this week, it looks like the rose colored glasses brigade are still in serious denial! The 6 phases of denial are; (1) It won't happen to us. (2) It won't happen here. (3) It won't happen now. (4) If it does happen it won't be so bad. (5) If it is bad then our insurance will cover it. (6) Oh my God, why weren't we prepared for this! Most of the rose colored glasses brigade seem to be somewhere between #2 and #3, but there are a few who have moved on to #4. In my exploration of Thailand earlier this year (Dec. 06-March 07) I found a common theme wherever I traveled. The main theme seemed to be that while tourisim was only down slightly, tourist spending was down substantially and this theme was consistent across a broad spectrum of thais such as shop owners, guesthouse owners, retuaraunt owners, taxi drivers, tour operators, golf course staff, hotel operators and real estate agents. The real estate agents were particularly interesting to talk to, due to the fact that they generally had a better education level than the others and they understood just how dangerous the strengthening baht could be for the entirety of the thai economy, they also seemed to be hit the worst because in many of the areas I traveled to the real estate market was completely dead. After posting the findings of my trip earlier this spring I found myself assailed by these houligans (the rose colored glasses brigade) , but now that the strong baht has indeed had its effect on many areas of the thai economy including the export sector now, I not only feel vindicated but realize that the folks on the street always know what is happening in the economy well before it shows up in the data! Should the baht continue to strengthen further, then I imagine that the topic heading here will become a reality.

[Solosiam]

zzzzzzzzzzzzz

You guys have been waiting for the Thai economy to fail for years - for some strange reason.

I've heard it since the very first day I came here.

As much as some have rose coloured glasses, others for some reason wish the very worst to happen, and can't wait to chime in with any little piece of data.

At the end of the day, exports in July, year on year are up 6%, which is FANTASTIC considering everything thats gone on. I personally very much look forward to the massive continued success of the economy here - which even through a coup maintains a growth of 4%+ in GDP per year, extraordinary.

[VegasVic]

zzzzzzzzzzzzz

You guys have been waiting for the Thai economy to fail for years - for some strange reason.

I've heard it since the very first day I came here.

As much as some have rose coloured glasses, others for some reason wish the very worst to happen, and can't wait to chime in with any little piece of data.

At the end of the day, exports in July, year on year are up 6%, which is FANTASTIC considering everything thats gone on. I personally very much look forward to the massive continued success of the economy here - which even through a coup maintains a growth of 4%+ in GDP per year, extraordinary.

Poor lad, it looks like you are stuck in phase #2 of denial Not to worry though as more accurate data surfaces about the thai economy (in particular the tough times in the export sector) I imagine you will move through the other phases rapidly

[highdiver]

I use three Thailand shippers regularly. All three made appointments this week and sent in a pooyai to "chat". Appears their business is off somewhere around 20% down over last year and they are calling out the big guns to shake the bushes. These folks dont ship for the big guys, companies like Toyota have their own shipping, but they ship for the small to medium size businesses, the kind that make up the bedrock of an export economy.

http://www.bot.or.th/BOTHomepage/databank/...ance/tab47e.asp

The July export figures are now posted. The detail is uglier than the overall figures for some categories. Overall, in baht terms, exports fell 8.1% June to July. July 2007 was 4.6% lower than last July. The year to date total which had been 6.7% higher through June is now only 5.0% higher than last year. Per your experience, August seems to have been bad like July.

The baht did not really strengthen much until about January so it makes sense that the recent months have been the weakest ones.

The quantities exported looks troubling. Sugar was a bright spot, 188% higher tonnage than last year and 133% higher in baht terms. Note a 20% price decline in baht.

Agricultural products in total were -17% in baht compared to the prior July. Fishery was -7% in baht compared to the prior July.

Here are other major categories July to July:

Canned fish, -3% tonnage, -3% in baht

Rice, -22% tonnage, -20% in baht

Rubber +4% tonnage, -18% in baht

Tapioca products -35% tonnage, -19%

Shrimp +13% tonnage, -2% in baht

must be realy hot there in Vgeas...

In reading some of the posts here this week, it looks like the rose colored glasses brigade are still in serious denial! The 6 phases of denial are; (1) It won't happen to us. (2) It won't happen here. (3) It won't happen now. (4) If it does happen it won't be so bad. (5) If it is bad then our insurance will cover it. (6) Oh my God, why weren't we prepared for this! Most of the rose colored glasses brigade seem to be somewhere between #2 and #3, but there are a few who have moved on to #4.

thank you for sharing that with us... We love you and we hope that you yourself can accept those stages as part of the recovery process for the econonmy in America.

The memebers which you refer to as Rose glasses brigade are many nice and very happy people living in Thailand..this offcourse is contrary to all those who send the dooms day thaland is in crisis coments from a far. and in your case very far. please remind us where you live and what exactly your conection is to the Thai economy

In my exploration of Thailand earlier this year (Dec. 06-March 07) I found a common theme wherever I traveled.

your exploration...

so you did not come and visit, or for a holiday... you came to explore..it seems that the patronising superiority complex is surfacing.

The main theme seemed to be that while tourisim was only down slightly, tourist spending was down substantially and this theme was consistent across a broad spectrum of thais such as shop owners, guesthouse owners, retuaraunt owners, taxi drivers, tour operators, golf course staff, hotel operators and real estate agents. The real estate agents were particularly interesting to talk to, due to the fact that they generally had a better education level than the others and they understood just how dangerous the strengthening baht could be for the entirety of the thai economy,

wow!!! its facinating I can just picture you in your safari suite "exploring" the natives and gathering this information....you should be working in BBC specials....

and this obsrvation based on your meetings with Taxi drivers, shop owners and other esteemed mebers of the realestate agents have made you come to the conclusion about the thai economy in crisis??

that fact that you met some people that were not doing well is not an indicication of those markets.

tourist numbers are way up then last year and tourist spending is up as hotels are mnore expensive in Baht and if you messure them in dollars they are way up.

realestate market is allso going well and condoes and villas are sold at extreme prices. the ones who are complaining are those that cant join the game or the ones that cant compete.

they also seemed to be hit the worst because in many of the areas I traveled to the real estate market was completely dead. After posting the findings of my trip earlier this spring I found myself assailed by these houligans (the rose colored glasses brigade) , but now that the strong baht has indeed had its effect on many areas of the thai economy including the export sector now, I not only feel vindicated but realize that the folks on the street always know what is happening in the economy well before it shows up in the data! Should the baht continue to strengthen further, then I imagine that the topic heading here will become a reality.

I usualy enjoy reading your posts that debate economy as some times they make a good debate. I even agree with you about the effects of the hedge funds . but this post.... seems it was a very hot day there in Vegas

[LaoPo]

Highdiver: "the patronizing superiority complex is surfacing..."

couldn't have said it better!

LaoPo

[VegasVic]

I use three Thailand shippers regularly. All three made appointments this week and sent in a pooyai to "chat". Appears their business is off somewhere around 20% down over last year and they are calling out the big guns to shake the bushes. These folks dont ship for the big guys, companies like Toyota have their own shipping, but they ship for the small to medium size businesses, the kind that make up the bedrock of an export economy.

http://www.bot.or.th/BOTHomepage/databank/...ance/tab47e.asp

The July export figures are now posted. The detail is uglier than the overall figures for some categories. Overall, in baht terms, exports fell 8.1% June to July. July 2007 was 4.6% lower than last July. The year to date total which had been 6.7% higher through June is now only 5.0% higher than last year. Per your experience, August seems to have been bad like July.

The baht did not really strengthen much until about January so it makes sense that the recent months have been the weakest ones.

The quantities exported looks troubling. Sugar was a bright spot, 188% higher tonnage than last year and 133% higher in baht terms. Note a 20% price decline in baht.

Agricultural products in total were -17% in baht compared to the prior July. Fishery was -7% in baht compared to the prior July.

Here are other major categories July to July:

Canned fish, -3% tonnage, -3% in baht

Rice, -22% tonnage, -20% in baht

Rubber +4% tonnage, -18% in baht

Tapioca products -35% tonnage, -19%

Shrimp +13% tonnage, -2% in baht

must be realy hot there in Vgeas...

In reading some of the posts here this week, it looks like the rose colored glasses brigade are still in serious denial! The 6 phases of denial are; (1) It won't happen to us. (2) It won't happen here. (3) It won't happen now. (4) If it does happen it won't be so bad. (5) If it is bad then our insurance will cover it. (6) Oh my God, why weren't we prepared for this! Most of the rose colored glasses brigade seem to be somewhere between #2 and #3, but there are a few who have moved on to #4.

thank you for sharing that with us... We love you and we hope that you yourself can accept those stages as part of the recovery process for the econonmy in America.

The memebers which you refer to as Rose glasses brigade are many nice and very happy people living in Thailand..this offcourse is contrary to all those who send the dooms day thaland is in crisis coments from a far. and in your case very far. please remind us where you live and what exactly your conection is to the Thai economy

In my exploration of Thailand earlier this year (Dec. 06-March 07) I found a common theme wherever I traveled.

your exploration...

so you did not come and visit, or for a holiday... you came to explore..it seems that the patronising superiority complex is surfacing.

The main theme seemed to be that while tourisim was only down slightly, tourist spending was down substantially and this theme was consistent across a broad spectrum of thais such as shop owners, guesthouse owners, retuaraunt owners, taxi drivers, tour operators, golf course staff, hotel operators and real estate agents. The real estate agents were particularly interesting to talk to, due to the fact that they generally had a better education level than the others and they understood just how dangerous the strengthening baht could be for the entirety of the thai economy,

wow!!! its facinating I can just picture you in your safari suite "exploring" the natives and gathering this information....you should be working in BBC specials....

and this obsrvation based on your meetings with Taxi drivers, shop owners and other esteemed mebers of the realestate agents have made you come to the conclusion about the thai economy in crisis??

that fact that you met some people that were not doing well is not an indicication of those markets.

tourist numbers are way up then last year and tourist spending is up as hotels are mnore expensive in Baht and if you messure them in dollars they are way up.

realestate market is allso going well and condoes and villas are sold at extreme prices. the ones who are complaining are those that cant join the game or the ones that cant compete.

they also seemed to be hit the worst because in many of the areas I traveled to the real estate market was completely dead. After posting the findings of my trip earlier this spring I found myself assailed by these houligans (the rose colored glasses brigade) , but now that the strong baht has indeed had its effect on many areas of the thai economy including the export sector now, I not only feel vindicated but realize that the folks on the street always know what is happening in the economy well before it shows up in the data! Should the baht continue to strengthen further, then I imagine that the topic heading here will become a reality.

I usualy enjoy reading your posts that debate economy as some times they make a good debate. I even agree with you about the effects of the hedge funds . but this post.... seems it was a very hot day there in Vegas

I'm not quite sure just how hot it was in Vegas today, but it must have been a scorcher because it was in the upper 90's here in Sedona! By the way I do have a condo in Vegas that my wife and I use when we visit the grandkids, but our home is in Sedona AZ. I'm certain that your upscale condo's and villas are selling like hotcakes and the export sector in Thailand is setting records daily, and in general the consumer sentiment is also very high in Thialand currently. So now that I know that everything is rosy in the LOS, I will take of my rose colored glasses that are required to respond to you and enjoy an outstanding red rock sunset Have a good day my friend, I do hope things improve shortly for you.

[Carmine6]

zzzzzzzzzzzzz

You guys have been waiting for the Thai economy to fail for years - for some strange reason.

I've heard it since the very first day I came here.

As much as some have rose coloured glasses, others for some reason wish the very worst to happen, and can't wait to chime in with any little piece of data.

At the end of the day, exports in July, year on year are up 6%, which is FANTASTIC considering everything thats gone on. I personally very much look forward to the massive continued success of the economy here - which even through a coup maintains a growth of 4%+ in GDP per year, extraordinary.

I'm assuming I'm one of those guys who you think has been waiting for the Thai economy to fall, and is chiming in with any little bit of data. Let me clarify. The Thai economy is not going to fall and I do not want that to happen. In fact I think the SET is going to rally into next year. Contrary to a lot of people here, I do believe there are good business opportunities in Thailand.

As a share of exports, manufacturing is 10 times as much as agricultural exports, and manufacturing is the area that can adapt the best to a strengthening currency. If you find old posts of mine, you'll see that I made a case for the Thai economy being strong when people were crying gloom and doom. Because there was a lot of evidence to say things were good. "High tech products" is the single largest category in the export figures at about 65% of the total. Clearly that drives the overall export figures.

Here's what I am concerned about. The agricultural sector covers a huge share of the population. These people are also the least able to change their livelihood, and generally have the least safety net in terms of savings or a retirement plan. Their safety net is any land they may own and how well their kids do. Many will be fine as a result of their kids going to school and getting good jobs afterwards.

The baht strengthened a lot this year. I keep seeing people say it's been a year of strengthening, but look at a couple year chart, the big move was in the December '06 - February '07 period. Prior to that it wasn't too far outside the range it had been in for a couple years. Particularly against the Euro and Pound, the move was early this year. Baht at about 37.5/$ a year ago was not that far out of line as it had been in the low 38's in early 2005.

The early 2007 exports would not have been affected that much by the stronger baht because it wasn't that much stronger. Companies can increase prices a little or accept lower profit margins for a while or both. But move the currency a lot for an extended period and it doesn't just make for bad years, it puts companies out of business.

Farmers don't go out of business, they cut their expenses - no university for the kids. And their kids go off to find income anywhere they can.

July was a bad month. 4.6% less than the prior July. No big deal, the year is still up, right? Well that was the first year over year decline in exports since August 2002. In fact, until December 2006, there was only one month since August 2002 where the year over year export growth was less than 5% - February 2005.

The average year over year export growth in the 5 years from August 2002 up to and including July 2007 was 12.9%. And the baht amount does not even account for the price declines in some products such as sugar and much of the fishery products. Tonnage of canned, agricultural, and fishery products being exported is at some of the highest levels ever.

Exports classified as labor intensive manufacturing started having year over year declines starting June '06. Only 2 positive months since then and one was just a 1.1% increase. Similar to agriculture, not so much baht export effect, lots of people affected. High tech product exports has masked declines elsewhere until July when even that category declined year over year.

Is there any reason to think August was a good month? Judging by what small businesses seem to be saying, I think not.

Agricultural exports are up 0.8% year to date. Through June it was 4.5% but the 16.7% year over year decline for July took that out. Should we keep looking backwards saying things were ok, or should we look forward and ask when the turning point is?

Why would i care about this kind of stuff instead of the overall economy? Because I know the nice decent people I met in my ex-girlfriend's village don't benefit from high tech product exports. And I know that many of the people working in the tourist businesses have families facing that same situation back home.

[LaoPo]

zzzzzzzzzzzzz

You guys have been waiting for the Thai economy to fail for years - for some strange reason.

I've heard it since the very first day I came here.

As much as some have rose coloured glasses, others for some reason wish the very worst to happen, and can't wait to chime in with any little piece of data.

At the end of the day, exports in July, year on year are up 6%, which is FANTASTIC considering everything thats gone on. I personally very much look forward to the massive continued success of the economy here - which even through a coup maintains a growth of 4%+ in GDP per year, extraordinary.

I'm assuming I'm one of those guys who you think has been waiting for the Thai economy to fall, and is chiming in with any little bit of data. Let me clarify. The Thai economy is not going to fall and I do not want that to happen. In fact I think the SET is going to rally into next year. Contrary to a lot of people here, I do believe there are good business opportunities in Thailand.

As a share of exports, manufacturing is 10 times as much as agricultural exports, and manufacturing is the area that can adapt the best to a strengthening currency. If you find old posts of mine, you'll see that I made a case for the Thai economy being strong when people were crying gloom and doom. Because there was a lot of evidence to say things were good. "High tech products" is the single largest category in the export figures at about 65% of the total. Clearly that drives the overall export figures.

Here's what I am concerned about. The agricultural sector covers a huge share of the population. These people are also the least able to change their livelihood, and generally have the least safety net in terms of savings or a retirement plan. Their safety net is any land they may own and how well their kids do. Many will be fine as a result of their kids going to school and getting good jobs afterwards.

The baht strengthened a lot this year. I keep seeing people say it's been a year of strengthening, but look at a couple year chart, the big move was in the December '06 - February '07 period. Prior to that it wasn't too far outside the range it had been in for a couple years. Particularly against the Euro and Pound, the move was early this year. Baht at about 37.5/$ a year ago was not that far out of line as it had been in the low 38's in early 2005.

The early 2007 exports would not have been affected that much by the stronger baht because it wasn't that much stronger. Companies can increase prices a little or accept lower profit margins for a while or both. But move the currency a lot for an extended period and it doesn't just make for bad years, it puts companies out of business.

Farmers don't go out of business, they cut their expenses - no university for the kids. And their kids go off to find income anywhere they can.

July was a bad month. 4.6% less than the prior July. No big deal, the year is still up, right? Well that was the first year over year decline in exports since August 2002. In fact, until December 2006, there was only one month since August 2002 where the year over year export growth was less than 5% - February 2005.

The average year over year export growth in the 5 years from August 2002 up to and including July 2007 was 12.9%. And the baht amount does not even account for the price declines in some products such as sugar and much of the fishery products. Tonnage of canned, agricultural, and fishery products being exported is at some of the highest levels ever.

Exports classified as labor intensive manufacturing started having year over year declines starting June '06. Only 2 positive months since then and one was just a 1.1% increase. Similar to agriculture, not so much baht export effect, lots of people affected. High tech product exports has masked declines elsewhere until July when even that category declined year over year.

Is there any reason to think August was a good month? Judging by what small businesses seem to be saying, I think not.

Agricultural exports are up 0.8% year to date. Through June it was 4.5% but the 16.7% year over year decline for July took that out. Should we keep looking backwards saying things were ok, or should we look forward and ask when the turning point is?

Why would i care about this kind of stuff instead of the overall economy? Because I know the nice decent people I met in my ex-girlfriend's village don't benefit from high tech product exports. And I know that many of the people working in the tourist businesses have families facing that same situation back home.

You're right, Agriculture 'consumes' some 60% of the total Thai Labor force; add up their spouses, families, grandparents, children and you'll know the outcome...

LaoPo

[Mid]

Thailand vulnerable to global slowdown, Fitch says

Today's Top Stories

Thailand's economy, incumbered by political uncertainties and falling domestic demand, is among "the most vulnerable countries in Asia" to a decline in global economic growth, Fitch Ratings warned on Monday.

snip

bangkokpost.com

Edited September 3, 2007 by Mid

[Mid]

SME confidence index declines further in July

Monday 3 September 2007 04:59:51 PM (GMT+7:00)

BANGKOK, Sept 3 (TNA) – The SME confidence index in July continued to drop to 41.8 from 43.2 the previous month due to the economic slowdown and political uncertainties, according to the Small- and Medium-Enterprise Promotion Office.

Director-General Chitraporn Techachan said the index on the trade and service sector in July declined to 41.8 per cent from 43.6 per cent in June, that in the wholesale and retail sector to 41.6 per cent from 43.2 per cent, and that in the service sector to 42.1 per cent from 44 per cent.

So did the indices on the overall economy and own business, which dropped to 24.8 and 35. 5 per cent from 30.9 and 39.7 per cent, respectively.

She said the continued decline in the SME confidence index stemmed from entrepreneurial concerns over the economic slowdown, declining public purchasing power, and sluggish spending, which made their sales and profits edge downward.

However, some business sectors including automotive service stations, construction, tourism, and recreation, enjoyed a rising index.

Mr. Chitraporn said the confidence index for the economic forecast for the coming three months edged down slightly to 44.7 from 45.3.

The indices in all business sectors are reported below 50, which demonstrates that entrepreneurial confidence in the overall business performance in the future remains guarded or lacking in confidence. (TNA)-E005

MCOT Public Company Limited

[LaoPo]

Thailand August consumer prices up 1.1 pct on yr; lowest rise in nearly 5 yrs

BANGKOK (Thomson Financial) - Consumer prices in Thailand last month rose just 1.1 percent from a year ago, the lowest gain in nearly five years, the Commerce Ministry said Monday.

It attributed the modest rise to weaker fuel prices, with the cost of oil down 5.2 percent. Overall energy costs were down 4.5 percent,

In July consumer prices rose an annual 1.7 percent.

'Manufacturers have not raised prices for goods amid an economic slowdown,' Karun Kittisathaporn, the ministry's permanent secretary, told reporters.

The ministry will keep its consumer inflation forecast unchanged at 1.5 to 2.5 percent in 2007, Karun said.

The August figure came as a surprise to economists who had expected inflation to edge up to 1.8 percent due to rising food prices.

Vegetable prices in August jumped 23.5 percent with rice prices up 8.9 percent, the ministry said.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose just 0.7 percent from a year ago.

With inflation staying low, Pimonwan Mahujchariyavong, an economist at private think tank Kasikorn Research Centre, said the central bank should cut its key interest rate to spur the country's slowing economy.

'It's time for the Bank of Thailand to rethink its interest rate policy to boost economic development,' she said.

The Thai central bank last month left its key interest rate unchanged at 3.25 percent, amid easing inflation despite calls from the business sector for a rate cut to help shore up the economy.

Thailand's economy is expected to grow at just over four percent in 2007, which would be one of the lowest projected rates for Southeast Asia.

From: http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/20...afx4076253.html

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Malaysian Investments In Thailand Rise To US$324.9 Million in the first half of this year (2007)

BANGKOK, Sept 3 (Bernama) -- Malaysian investment in Thailand amounted to US$324.9 million in the first half of this year, making it the third largest foreign investor in the kingdom after Japan and the United States.

Malaysian Ambassador to Thailand, Datuk Shaarani Ibrahim, said Malaysian investments were diversified, covering both the manufacturing and services sectors.

Among the biggest Malaysian investors in Thailand are Petronas, Aapico, Sime Darby, Trans Thai-Malaysia Ltd and Bina Puri while other companies operating here include RHB Bank and CIMB.

Thailand's investments in Malaysia, on the other hand, amounted to US$200 million for the 2000 to 2006 period, said Shaarani in his message in conjunction with Malaysia's 50th Independence Day and the 50th anniversary of Malaysia-Thailand diplomatic relationships.

Shaarani said Thai investments in Malaysia were mostly in the manufacturing sector, in particular petroleum and chemical products, food manufacturing, transportation equipment and wood products.

"Both countries are making greater efforts to increase trade and investment. An enhancement in business relations will be mutually beneficial and bring the two countries closer together in many ways," he said.

Malaysia is also Thailand's fourth largest trading partner and the largest among Asean countries, with total trade last year amounting to US$15 billion.

Shaarani said in the first six months of 2007, two-way trade amounted to US$7.68 billion, compared to US$7.20 billion over the same period last year.

He also said that Malaysia was cooperating with Thailand in its effort to undertake socio-economic developments in southern Thailand, through collaboration in the field of education and human capital development.

From: Bernama.com

I wonder why there is such a huge difference between Malaysia's and Thailand's investments in each other's countries ?

Difference in entrepreneurial spirits ?

LaoPo

[cclub75]

The July export figures are now posted. The detail is uglier than the overall figures for some categories. Overall, in baht terms, exports fell 8.1% June to July. July 2007 was 4.6% lower than last July. The year to date total which had been 6.7% higher through June is now only 5.0% higher than last year.

Here is a chart of the % change, per month, y-o-y, for exports values (in THB and in USD). That gives a clear view of the trend.

Agricultural products in total were -17% in baht compared to the prior July. Fishery was -7% in baht compared to the prior July.

As you said, this is going to hurt a lot... Less sales/profits for large auto makers... well normal thai people can cope. But a decline of revenues in THB terms for agriculture...

Anyway, exports figures in august are going to be extremely important (we should have some first datas around 15-20 september).

[Solosiam]

Vegetable prices in August jumped 23.5 percent with rice prices up 8.9 percent, the ministry said.

You're right, Agriculture 'consumes' some 60% of the total Thai Labor force; add up their spouses, families, grandparents, children and you'll know the outcome

So absolutely fantastic news for 60% of the population, no?

[LaoPo]

Vegetable prices in August jumped 23.5 percent with rice prices up 8.9 percent, the ministry said.

You're right, Agriculture 'consumes' some 60% of the total Thai Labor force; add up their spouses, families, grandparents, children and you'll know the outcome

So absolutely fantastic news for 60% of the population, no?

At a first blink one would think so, yes.

The question is if production also went up with 23.5/8.9 % but I don't know.

Normally, if prices go up that sharp it's an indication that production dropped, for one reason or another, in combination with increased (foreign) demand, but I don't know the production numbers of both.

So, unless there are figures of production>>versus>>prices>>versus demand, it's hard to tell.

LaoPo

[cclub75]

What about to scare a bit more our foreign investors friends ? That would be nice, wouldn't it ? Good timing and everything, yeah a very wise move.

"The Business Development Department is in the process of inspecting as many as 40,000 companies to see if they have used nominee structures to hold shares for foreign investors _ a practice prohibited by the Foreign Business Act."

Bangkok Post

Crisis, what crisis ?

[chinthee]

the hits just keep on comin' ladies and gents.

[LaoPo]

What about to scare a bit more our foreign investors friends ? That would be nice, wouldn't it ? Good timing and everything, yeah a very wise move.

"The Business Development Department is in the process of inspecting as many as 40,000 companies to see if they have used nominee structures to hold shares for foreign investors _ a practice prohibited by the Foreign Business Act."

Bangkok Post

Crisis, what crisis ?

What a brilliant move of the government to help Thai economy, not:

"Since May, his department has taken legal action against six companies for breaching the law.

Mr Kanissorn said that a more comprehensive investigation would continue into 12 big companies, including DHL Logistics (Thailand), DTAC, Bolero-Tak Wu Holdings and Cencar Co."

Why not kick them out, all of them, including all Japanese companies...the largest investors in Thailand...

edit:

Maybe someone could explain the controversy of this government. On one hand they promote and tell 'business' Thai to get overseas and invest there and promote investment by foreign companies in Thailand at the same time, and on the other hand they're trying to 'kill' joint Foreign/Thai ventures...

We'll just have to wait for the protest of the same foreign companies and they'll back off !

If not, more and more foreign companies will leave or don't invest/come to Thailand at all.

Brilliantly stupid.

LaoPo

Edited September 4, 2007 by LaoPo

[chinthee]

I hope I'm wrong that this whole situation doesn't end up being a case study in the MBA programs for how to dismantle a country's economy.

[LaoPo]

SCB likely to miss lending target

Siam Commercial Bank executives warned yesterday that the bank could miss its lending target for the year due to the economic slowdown.

SCB senior executive vice-president Yokporn Tantisawetrat said the bank achieved 30% to 40% of its full-year target in the first half.

SCB set a 13-15% lending growth target for the whole year, which was lower than last year's target. The economic slowdown has led to a decline in lending growth this year, he said.

''The growth in mortgage, corporate and retail loans has slowed. Credit card loans have slowed. But lending growth to small and medium-sized enterprises remained good,'' he said. ''In the first half, we achieved 30-40% of the target.''

Rest:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/04Sep2007_biz39.php

LaoPo

[Carmine6]

What about to scare a bit more our foreign investors friends ? That would be nice, wouldn't it ? Good timing and everything, yeah a very wise move.

"The Business Development Department is in the process of inspecting as many as 40,000 companies to see if they have used nominee structures to hold shares for foreign investors _ a practice prohibited by the Foreign Business Act."

Bangkok Post

Crisis, what crisis ?

About time. Now I can pick up a beer bar for a song.

[ray23]

I hope I'm wrong that this whole situation doesn't end up being a case study in the MBA programs for how to dismantle a country's economy.

Well this may be wake up and smell the coffee time for us. They are running articles about how great it is to retire here, but look whats going on with immigrations laws. I swear these department heads must never hold meeting with eachother. No one knows what page they are on.

Ya I know that doesn't mean much money to the economy bull hockey. Brits and Americans alone best count I could find was 61K. a minimum of 400K each ya I know chump change. I don't think so.

I'm sure the retirees today are just linning up to buy condos when then find out they have to put double the amount up to be here, if they want to stay married. There are a huge number of baby boomers looking for a friendly place to spend the balance of thier retirement years. Ya but that is jump change

I hope that the next years go a little better for us here.

[cclub75]

Maybe someone could explain the controversy of this government.

Yes, it's defying common sense.

What surprise me is that, usually, thai authorities are very coward. When they see an obstacle, they stop moving.

But in this case, since one year, they give hit after hit against foreign interests, with an amazing "esprit de suite", stoicism, and resilience.

And in all the domains : visa, FBA, currency, capital controls, drug compulsory licences, censorship, the list goes and goes.

As for the FBA, they saw a huge resistance, and pressure even from foreign embassies... But in august, the NLA voted an even harder version of FBA 2. The gvt was forced to widthdraw all the draft, in panic mode.

And then 3 weeks later... they announce thoses "inspections".

It's really astonishing...

Edited September 4, 2007 by cclub75

[xbusman]

One of the things I love about Thailand, never a dull moment. Its always something bizarre and entertaining and seldom permanent or enforcible. I have heard about this problem at DHL though, a few employees there have been talking about this for over a month. I guess DHL has simply informed the Thai government that if they pursue this DHL will simply fold up tent and go home.

It is my understanding that DHL was told they could receive packages at BKK but could not take them out of the airport. That delivery service could only be done by a 100% Thai company. This is after building their new distribution center (which I have seen but cant remember exactly where). DHL has conducted business as usual but I guess it has been quite testy at times. They are fully prepared to walk away if necessary, DHL would not even notice the write off in subnote 2000 of the annual report.

[Prakanong]

One of the things I love about Thailand, never a dull moment. Its always something bizarre and entertaining and seldom permanent or enforcible. I have heard about this problem at DHL though, a few employees there have been talking about this for over a month. I guess DHL has simply informed the Thai government that if they pursue this DHL will simply fold up tent and go home.

It is my understanding that DHL was told they could receive packages at BKK but could not take them out of the airport. That delivery service could only be done by a 100% Thai company. This is after building their new distribution center (which I have seen but cant remember exactly where). DHL has conducted business as usual but I guess it has been quite testy at times. They are fully prepared to walk away if necessary, DHL would not even notice the write off in subnote 2000 of the annual report.

As you say DHL will pack up and move - they did it in Belgium did they not when they could not get what they wanted - there are other countries.

Where is the main DHL hub in the region?

There are a hel_l of a lot of DHL people in building close to my office in Singapore - the centre not the airport.

[chinthee]

Any sensible MNC would quickly do the same analysis. They have contingent plans in place for this, and usually multiple hubs around the region. The ones that could get hurt are those who've chosen Thailand as their sole hub for SE Asia or Asia. There is a reason places like Singapore and Hong Kong have long been the chosen hubs and continue to be so today.

[esbobes]

I hope I'm wrong that this whole situation doesn't end up being a case study in the MBA programs for how to dismantle a country's economy.

I am amazed you don't known this is planned by the rich in America ( The Bushes World Banks Wall Street Elites ) There Plan is to bring down the Thrid world markets by 90 per cent Control their bank and money once again

Watch the Dow 3000 FSTE 1000 Dak 1000 Got out now buy back at these levels

Real Estate shall drop 60 per cent

Good luck glad I can help

[Prakanong]

I hope I'm wrong that this whole situation doesn't end up being a case study in the MBA programs for how to dismantle a country's economy.

I am amazed you don't known this is planned by the rich in America ( The Bushes World Banks Wall Street Elites ) There Plan is to bring down the Thrid world markets by 90 per cent Control their bank and money once again

Watch the Dow 3000 FSTE 1000 Dak 1000 Got out now buy back at these levels

Real Estate shall drop 60 per cent

Good luck glad I can help

Just because you are paranoid it does not mean they are not out to get you!

Take care or the aliens may abduct you