Predictions for what the government will replace the amnesty with

[Promula]

In my opinion, they'll try to force more amnesty longstayers to leave by introducing means testing which is similar to that applied to married and retired longstayers. There has been mention of 500,000 baht seasoned for six months applied to some overseas applicant visas, and I think they'll also use that as a hoop to jump through to get a 60 day extension instead of an embassy letter after the amnesty. 

[timendres]

Why the need for means testing? If they want them out, they simply don't extend the amnesty - out they go. They are not required to offer extensions to any of these folks, since under normal rules, none of them have a valid visa anymore. What will amnesty be "replaced with"? Nothing. They will extend it until they don't. If they are generous enough to allow extensions, it will most likely be similar to what was described just before this latest extension.

[patman30]

there has been no mention of this at all for those still here under the amnesty
please provide sources that say otherwise
stop trying to make others worry with your poor speculation
was it you stating this before in other threads ?

there are no "amnesty longstayers"
only "tourists" who are not being fined for overstay due to amnesty

when the amnesty ends, tourist wishing to remain here, will need to get whatever appropriate valid visa they can
and meet the requirements of said visa

and why would people need an embassy letter, AFTER the amnesty ?

Edited October 3, 2020 by patman30

[Promula]

4 minutes ago, patman30 said:

there has been no mention of this at all for those still here under the amnesty
please provide sources that say otherwise
stop trying to make others worry with your poor speculation

Wow touchy. This is my opinion of the tactic I think the Thai government will implement. There's no need to start crying. They might do something even harsher but I think they want to keep those with evidence of having money to spend and remove those who may run out of money soon and become a burden or be working to fund their stay without the correct visa and permit.

[patman30]

6 minutes ago, Promula said:

Wow touchy. This is my opinion of the tactic I think the Thai government will implement. There's no need to start crying. They might do something even harsher but I think they want to keep those with evidence of having money to spend and remove those who may run out of money soon and become a burden or be working to fund their stay without the correct visa and permit.

who is crying ?
(says the guy, afraid to speak up when he should)

they have always wanted people to have the correct visa and enough funds to stay and to not work illegally
nothing has changed there
you are speculating about tourists still here during amnesty

either they extend amnesty or they dont, either people have valid permission to stay or they dont
your opinion means nothing as it is pure speculation
and has the bias of your attitude of everyone else out and you stay


 

[4evermaat]

Patman30 has a point.   I think speculation at this point is kind of mute.  Either they will extend the amnesty or they wont.   

 

If the fundamentals that caused the amnesty are mostly still in place (low percentage of reliable flights, neighbor/regional borders still closed, surge/resurgence of covid-19 from certain countries, travel related companies going bankrupt/significant reorganization [particularly air travel companies], etc), then there is a good chance that the amnesty will be extended.    

 

Will Thai gov't eventually just have an in-country amnesty extension that does not require embassy letter??   Will have to see if cabinet or police order does this.

[chippendale]

1 hour ago, Promula said:

Wow touchy. This is my opinion of the tactic I think the Thai government will implement. There's no need to start crying. They might do something even harsher but I think they want to keep those with evidence of having money to spend and remove those who may run out of money soon and become a burden or be working to fund their stay without the correct visa and permit.

On the other thread you were ranting about the tattooed farang who intimidated you earlier today. You chickened out of confronting him, and now you're spouting wild speculation and unfounded theories on what the government will do about the amnesty.

 

Removing the amnesty longstayers from Thailand might make you feel better about yourself, but it's pointless spreading silly rumours on Thaivisa. And losing sleep over farangs can't be good for your health either. Let the government get on with its job and decide on the amnesty situation.

[mr mr]

i heard they hired a skinny fat farang as muscle to make sure no one becomes a dirty over stayer. 

[Promula]

6 hours ago, 4evermaat said:

   I think speculation at this point is kind of mute.  Either they will extend the amnesty or they wont

........there is a good chance that the amnesty will be extended.

So you think I shouldn't speculate, and then you speculate yourself. Er ok!

 

Everyone knows that there are thousands of foreigners working illegally in Thailand, many hand to mouth, who are desperate to not be means tested. Lashing out at me for thinking the government will adopt this tactic, or ignorantly sneering at me and telling me that it's what I want when that's pure speculation, won't make the possibility of it happening go away.

 

 

[Promula]

6 hours ago, chippendale said:

 

Removing the amnesty longstayers from Thailand might make you feel better about yourself, but it's pointless spreading silly rumours on Thaivisa. And losing sleep over farangs can't be good for your health

Weird. I couldn't care less about them, they make no difference to my life. I'm only trying to guess what a government tactic will be before it's announced, from a political point if view. It's a perfectly normal activity to engage in around the world.

[UncleMhee]

18 minutes ago, Promula said:

I'm only trying to guess what a government tactic will be before it's announced, from a political point if view. It's a perfectly normal activity to engage in around the world.

It's a pointless useless activity to engage in if you lack the ethnic mindset of the political system you're attempting to second guess though........... Innit?

 

As for it being normal; normal is only relative to the one proposing it in many cases.

Edited October 3, 2020 by UncleMhee

[Promula]

32 minutes ago, UncleMhee said:

It's a pointless useless activity to engage in

You could have made that point by not posting then moving onto other threads you find more meaningful.....

Edited October 4, 2020 by Promula

[douglasspade]

"Amnesty" in Thailand is now seen as an assurance by some to stay. Do not get too comfortable with it, keep your bags packed, it might just end abruptly.

[Promula]

9 hours ago, timendres said:

Why the need for means testing? If they want them out, they simply don't extend the amnesty - out they go.

You only need to look at the requirements they make of non-imm visa holders, who need to prove that they are positively and legally contributing to the economy, either via employment in a role that Thais can't do, or by remitting money into the country.

 

Thailand isn't interested in being a refuge for foreigners who want asylum from returning to their covid-filled countries.  It has made clear that it wants to raise the average net worth of foreigners it permits to be in Thailand for the forseeable future, and a means test to extend the stay of those currently on amnesty or extension letter (not me) is the logical way of doing it. 

[tonray]

9 hours ago, Promula said:

force more amnesty longstayers

Amnesty Longstayers ? Is that a new category, are they not still essentially tourists ?

 

Simple Path....yearly extensions.

 

Over 50: retirement

Under 50: find gainful employment with a Thai firm or find a Thai partner and get married. (don't forget to save at least 400K out of the 2 Mil SinSod you hand over to furture MIL)

 

 

 

Edited October 4, 2020 by tonray

[herfiehandbag]

12 minutes ago, douglasspade said:

"Amnesty" in Thailand is now seen as an assurance by some to stay. Do not get too comfortable with it, keep your bags packed, it might just end abruptly.

And if you get wind of any such happening, make sure that you announce it immediately.  There are those here who will want to rush to be assured of a front ringside seat to watch the subsequent (oh blessed, happy word) deportations!

 

Perhaps it could even be televised, deportees led on a walk of shame (shackled of course) though the departures lounge, perhaps made to carry a placard with a blown up image of their bank books to illustrate the miserable pittance with which they have dared to sully the pristine existences of their betters...

Edited October 4, 2020 by herfiehandbag

[Promula]

19 minutes ago, tonray said:

Amnesty Longstayers ? Is that a new category, are they not still essentially tourists ?

The definition of a tourist is a person who resides elsewhere and is visiting a place for pleasure rather than to live there.

 

Anyone who arrived as a tourist and is now on the amnesty expected to be in Thailand for a maximum of three months but has been in Thailand for more than half a year and has not returned to their country of residence or moved on to a third country. This is either because they can't, or they don't want to. If they can't leave, that means they're stuck in Thailand rather than remaining there for pleasure, and if they don't want to leave, that means they're opting to live in Thailand for as long as possible. Neither is a tourist.

Edited October 4, 2020 by Promula

[steven100]

9 hours ago, Promula said:

Wow touchy. This is my opinion of the tactic I think the Thai government will implement. There's no need to start crying. They might do something even harsher but I think they want to keep those with evidence of having money to spend and remove those who may run out of money soon and become a burden or be working to fund their stay without the correct visa and permit.

nothing touchy about it.   The speculation is completely false. 

When amnesty ends ,  if you don't have the correct visa then bye ... bye ....  

simple really   !!   

[tonray]

16 minutes ago, Promula said:

The definition of a tourist is a person who resides elsewhere and is visiting a place for pleasure rather than to live there.

 

Anyone who arrived as a tourist and is now on the amnesty expected to be in Thailand for a maximum of three months but has been in Thailand for more than half a year and has not returned to their country of residence or moved on to a third country. This is either because they can't, or they don't want to. If they can't leave, that means they're stuck in Thailand rather than remaining there for pleasure, and if they don't want to leave, that means they're opting to live in Thailand for as long as possible. Neither is a tourist.

You can quote all the Wiki definitions you want...but the only defining that matters is what the Thai Immigration Ministry dictates.

[Promula]

8 minutes ago, steven100 said:

nothing touchy about it.   The speculation is completely false. 

When amnesty ends ,  if you don't have the correct visa then bye ... bye ....  

simple really   !!   

So that's your speculation. Thanks for contributing. 

[Promula]

41 minutes ago, tonray said:

You can quote all the Wiki definitions you want...but the only defining that matters is what the Thai Immigration Ministry dictates.

Well this thread was to invite people to share their opinions on what will be dictated should they wish to. But unsurprisingly it has attracted several bigots who seem intent, for unknown reasons, on preventing any such discussion. It's almost as if they're paranoid that the Thai government will see this thread and use its content to make a decision.

Edited October 4, 2020 by Promula

[Promula]

11 hours ago, patman30 said:

 the bias of your attitude of everyone else out and you stay


 

Holding a non imm visa that will soon be extended, I've no dog in this race other than an interest in the politics of it all.