Govt confident economy will cross 4% growth mark, central bank not so sure

By The Nation

 

Deputy Prime Minister Supattanapong Punmeechaow

 

The government is confident the economy will expand no less than 4 per cent next year, said Deputy Prime Minister Supattanapong Punmeechaow.

 

Supattanapong, who also doubles as energy minister, said the government will continue to seek more measures to lift the economy, which is struggling in the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic.

 

Earlier, the Bank of Thailand’s governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said he expected economic growth next year to be below 4 per cent as the tourism and export sectors may not recover fully.

 

Speaking at a separate event, Sethaphut said the bank was ready to control the rising baht to mitigate the impact on the export sector as well as execute a monetary policy to support economic growth.

 

Economic growth this year is expected to be better than the earlier estimate of minus 8 per cent, he said, adding that the bank will revise its growth forecast for 2020.

 

He said growth next year will be less than 4 per cent as the number of foreign tourists is unlikely to reach the previously estimated 9 million.

 

However, he expects the figures for consumption to enter the positive territory next year.

 

Earlier, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking predicted that the Thai economy will grow 2 to 4 per cent next year, while exports will grow 3 to 5 per cent.

 

Source: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30399223

 

 

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He said growth next year will be less than 4 per cent as the number of foreign tourists is unlikely to reach the previously estimated 9 million.

 

Did He Say UNLIKELY ?? I'd Say Impossible.......

This guy can't say anything with a straight face!

With an estimated 8% GDP drop this year, a 4% increase will still be a negative number when compared to pre Covid numbers. 

These idiots are just running their mouth off. They have no idea what growth will be , or even what it has been,

 

Number of Tourists likely next year will probably be nearer 9 than 9 million.  Certificate of Entry and quarantine will ensure that

15 hours ago, webfact said:

Deputy Prime Minister Supattanapong Punmeechaow

Mr. Junta Sunshine, or the man who blows sunshine.  He well look at more ways to improve the economy for the 1%, not the average Thai.   90 day landing visas after the virus would be a good start.   Vietnam and Malaysia do this.    Cut all that silly red tape that the ambassadors were complaining about.   Supattanapong Punmeechaow = ????, He has NO substance whatsoever.   

16 hours ago, webfact said:

Economic growth this year is expected to be better than the earlier estimate of minus 8 per cent

What a great example of doublespeak, “negative growth”.

Even if the Thai economy recovers 4% next year, this will still be below 2019 levels, and that was not even a good year. Could be 2022 or 2023 before we break back through the surface.

 

I am also trying to evaluate these overall published figures of a 6-8% economic contraction.

 

Let’s say tourism is 15% of GDP, split 10% foreigners and 5% Thai.

The foreigners have disappeared fully for 9 out of 12 months this year.

 That alone should be a GDP reduction of -7.5% ?
 

This is not taking into account a raft of other economic disruptions from local lockdowns and weaker global demand. The important Thai Automotive sector is continuing to have a shocking year.

Even if you lower tourism to 10% of GDP, with 6.66% allocated to foreigners, that would be a GDP reduction of -5%, just from loss of foreign tourism alone.

 

The numbers don’t quite add up for me. Either foreign tourism is not as significant to the economy as many observers suggest or....they are fudging the numbers ????

 

Before or after the purchase of those submarines....

Since a deliberate economic shutdown has never happened before, and we still have no idea about the long term effects of Covid on tourism, they are throwing darts in the dark. All projections at this point are just guesses. 

 

Considering how huge tourism WAS here, combined with the drop in foreign investments, consumer spending, and real estate sales, I predict the "real number" for 2020 will be closer to -12%, and next years number will only be meaningful, when measured against 2019, not 2020. Maybe 1%? If that. 

Excellent. 

How to spot fake news:

if it starts with "Government confident"

1 hour ago, realfunster said:

Either foreign tourism is not as significant to the economy as many observers suggest or....they are fudging the numbers

 

Both.

Probably rename the title:

 

Government officials hope that their bank balance will grow by 4% next year.

Just who do they expect will help the economy next year?  All western currencies have tanked,  vs the mighty Baht—and interestingly, the Chinese Yuan has risen.  Looks like you picked the wrong partner, Thailand.

So with an economy ( in real terms ) , still regressing next year , millions unemployed and tourism decimated , Thailand will still claim it has managed Covid superbly.

Wake up and sniff the durians guys !

22 hours ago, realfunster said:

What a great example of doublespeak, “negative growth”.

Even if the Thai economy recovers 4% next year, this will still be below 2019 levels, and that was not even a good year. Could be 2022 or 2023 before we break back through the surface.

 

I am also trying to evaluate these overall published figures of a 6-8% economic contraction.

 

Let’s say tourism is 15% of GDP, split 10% foreigners and 5% Thai.

The foreigners have disappeared fully for 9 out of 12 months this year.

 That alone should be a GDP reduction of -7.5% ?
 

This is not taking into account a raft of other economic disruptions from local lockdowns and weaker global demand. The important Thai Automotive sector is continuing to have a shocking year.

Even if you lower tourism to 10% of GDP, with 6.66% allocated to foreigners, that would be a GDP reduction of -5%, just from loss of foreign tourism alone.

 

The numbers don’t quite add up for me. Either foreign tourism is not as significant to the economy as many observers suggest or....they are fudging the numbers ????

 

Lets be frank ;

They are fudging the economic impact just as they fudged the initial covid infections and fatalities.

A military mindset combined with the cultural aspect of face saving , a wonderful combination during a crisis !

All the sudden, this song rang into my head "All I Have to do is Dream".