Thailand's Economy And China

[ArranP]

the hang seng is independant of the shanghai mainland market, so no change to world markets here, I don't see any reason why thailand would be an exception.

the only other impact point would be any change in the economical growth of china.

Over the long term I believe china to continue to grow beyond any other.

But I am no expert.

[LaoPo]

the hang seng is independant of the shanghai mainland market, so no change to world markets here, I don't see any reason why thailand would be an exception.

the only other impact point would be any change in the economical growth of china.

Over the long term I believe china to continue to grow beyond any other.

But I am no expert.

China's forecast growth for 2007 is now some 10,9%, whilst growth in the first quarter was 11,1%.

Growth needs cooling down...but easier said than realized in a country with 1.3 billion people.

Interesting article about the 'Hottest investment destinations in 2007'; survey by Ernst & Young:

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2007...tent_910458.htm

Unfortunately Thailand is not on the list, but maybe further in the report (of which I don't have access to).

LaoPo

[Mid]

China Plays Nice With Neighbors

By Philip Nice

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Beijing continues its policy of courting rather than confronting certain states. It will remember to collect those favors.

meanwhile the US snubbs ASEAN .........................

[LaoPo]

China Plays Nice With Neighbors

By Philip Nice

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Beijing continues its policy of courting rather than confronting certain states. It will remember to collect those favors.

meanwhile the US snubbs ASEAN .........................

"Copyright © 2007 Philadelphia Church of God"....

Church & Politics do not go hand-in-hand.

However, where are the Ozzies when I read this from the same article:

"In tiny East Timor, China is building a lavish foreign ministry and a presidential palace as well as barracks for the Timorese military. It has also provided military uniforms, medical and police groups, and training for civil servants and farmers."

As far as I am informed the Ozzies considered East Timor to be very important as their neighbour since East Timor has..........Oil fields - offshore-.

Puzzled.

LaoPo

[bingobongo]

this chart is looking very ugly.......it will be a mess.....once the yen reverses watch out.....

What it shows is the high profile highly speculative Shanghai Stock Index with the Japanese Yen at the bottom. Its cheap money and liquidity which has kept the Shanghai exchange rising. As the Yen has moved lower, the SSEC has moved persistently higher.

In other words, the Yen is now hitting MAJOR support which according to the bigger picture should hold. Yen weakness is now a thing of the past. A stronger Yen does not come at a good time for Chinese stock investing games.

SSEC on top chart and yen/$ on bottom chart

Edited July 17, 2007 by bingobongo

[LaoPo]

this chart is looking very ugly.......it will be a mess.....once the yen reverses watch out.....

What it shows is the high profile highly speculative Shanghai Stock Index with the Japanese Yen at the bottom. Its cheap money and liquidity which has kept the Shanghai exchange rising. As the Yen has moved lower, the SSEC has moved persistently higher.

In other words, the Yen is now hitting MAJOR support which according to the bigger picture should hold. Yen weakness is now a thing of the past. A stronger Yen does not come at a good time for Chinese stock investing games.

SSEC on top chart and yen/$ on bottom chart

Interesting Bingobingo.

Yes, the Yen is heavily under valuated at the moment; some say even by 50%.

It will certainly have some effect on the Chinese stock markets but don't forget that over 60% of the total value there is from private Chinese investors; the rest if from funds, banks and Institutional investors. In the US it's just 5% private versus 60% in China.

But that the cheap Yen is responsible for the total Shanghai index rise is too much said.

There have been considerable corrections already and there will be more to come. I study the listed companies on a daily basis and most companies are VERY profitable and very healthy.

That private people speculate and thus create high P/E's is something [losses] they will have to eat later themselves or swallow, better said.

Most Chinese private investors have no, to little, knowledge about foreign stocks or markets, let alone currency swings outside their own country. They're simply not interested. It's the same that most Americans or Europeans don't give a darn about their own currency (versus others), just the prices in the supermarket and gasoline...

Go on the street and ask 100 people how much the US$ is versus the Pound Sterling, Euro or Yen, or vice versa..96% will NOT know.

But that the Yen will appreciate against major currencies is for certain but bad for Japans' export, and the money that's in the Chinese stock markets will flow out again; how much that is ? I don't know.

We'll see.

LaoPo

[bingobongo]

Chinese parliamentary panel warns economy overheating

But the steps seemingly have done little to rein in the investment boom, raising concerns among officials that the already excessive liquidity troubling the economy would be even harder to contain and eventually lead to an abrupt slowdown in growth.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070718/ts_afp/chinaeconomygrowth_070718050341;_ylt=An8lx6RTvEW07UEp5Zga2NemOrgF

[j_cheung]

Chinese parliamentary panel warns economy overheating

But the steps seemingly have done little to rein in the investment boom, raising concerns among officials that the already excessive liquidity troubling the economy would be even harder to contain and eventually lead to an abrupt slowdown in growth.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070718/ts_afp/chinaeconomygrowth_070718050341;_ylt=An8lx6RTvEW07UEp5Zga2NemOrgF

They worry but they won't do anything drastic about that until after the August Olympics next year ... at least that's the popular mantra that most recite here ...

[bingobongo]

Broken China: A dysfunctional nation

Beijing can't clean up the environment, rein in stock speculation or police its companies. Here's why the country's problems could keep it from becoming the next superpower

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Inves...onalNation.aspx

[LaoPo]

Broken China: A dysfunctional nation

Beijing can't clean up the environment, rein in stock speculation or police its companies. Here's why the country's problems could keep it from becoming the next superpower

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Inves...onalNation.aspx

We are not allowed to talk about politics and economies of other countries here (like the warning about the US, elsewhere on this forum) according to forum rules.

The only thing I wish to say is that there is no comparison in history, worldwide, where such a huge country (with 1.3 Billion people) came from such a deep pit hole in 2 to 3 decades.

Problems are not solved overnight...and foreign news about China should be taken with a truckload of salt.

LaoPo

[artao]

Broken China: A dysfunctional nation

Beijing can't clean up the environment, rein in stock speculation or police its companies. Here's why the country's problems could keep it from becoming the next superpower

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Inves...onalNation.aspx

haha, from the point of view, China will break down tomorrow.

[bingobongo]

Broken China: A dysfunctional nation

Beijing can't clean up the environment, rein in stock speculation or police its companies. Here's why the country's problems could keep it from becoming the next superpower

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Inves...onalNation.aspx

haha, from the point of view, China will break down tomorrow.

inflation is rampant in thailand and china too, growth too much too fast always ends in heartache...inflation is not wealth, it is just debasement of the currency

From Minyville July 19:

A slew of overnight data out of China has prompted some selling in Asia. Let's take a look at what's important and what's not.

• First, China's consumer prices rose 2.7% in the first quarter from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said.
  
• The Consumer Price Index was up 3.3% year-over-year, marking the first time since 2005 the CPI has exceeded 3%.
  
• China's first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 11.1%, while investment in fixed assets in urban areas was up 25.3% in the first quarter.
  
• What's relatively unimportant is the GDP growth and fixed urban asset investment numbers.
  
• Everyone knows China is growing.
  
• Instead the focus today is on the increasing inflationary pressures on what now constitutes three separate fronts:
  1) Producer Price Inflation is now running at 2.7% year-on-year
  2) Inflation in basic materials, notably metals, which China's National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Li Xiaochao said could continue to affect domestic prices in the future due to recent price jumps in international markets.
  3) Food prices were up a dramatic 6.2% in the first quarter.
  4) Retail sales of consumer goods are growing at 14.9% year-on-year.
  
• This is evidence of a different, more powerful type of inflation cocktail in China than in the U.S.
  
• China, however, is apparently in the throes of a far more powerful combination of demand-pull inflation, cost-push inflation, pricing power inflation and sectoral inflation.
  
• In other words, they got inflation, and they got it bad.
  

[LaoPo]

Challenges of the dragon

It takes more than deep pockets to invest in China, a country that is highly diverse in cultures and stages of development

Some excerpts:

How China Thinks:

Penetrating the mainland China market requires a thorough understanding of each province's different stage of development and culture, says a new research report prepared by the International Institute for Trade and Development (ITD).

The research, which focuses on 18 out of the 31 provinces in mainland China, said 70% of Thailand's trade with China in 2005 was in just three provinces: Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shanghai. Thailand recorded $8 billion worth of trade with Guangdong, accounting for 37% of its total trade with China and 50% of total exports to the country.

Guangdong is a gateway for Thai exports to China, thanks to longstanding relationships of firms in both countries. Key exports include integrated circuits, computers and oil.

The research said potential exports under the Asean-China free trade agreement are rubber, tapioca, durian, crocodile meat, jewellery, frozen shrimp, paper and rice.

Thai producers would also face stiff competition in the Chinese market, for example, rice and tropical fruits from Vietnam; and rubber from Malaysia and Indonesia. "Chinese locals still consider Thai products expensive and generic. China can produce many products with similar quality to local manufacturers with cheaper prices," the report added.

"In the past, many Thai firms failed to operate in the Chinese market because of the lack of personal connections with the government and civil servants," the report said.It added that a lack of transparency in China's bureaucratic system, trade protection measures, corruption, inconsistent policies to attract foreign investment and counterfeiting were factors impeding the success of local firms.

Complete article:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/Business/21Jul2007_focus03.php

LaoPo