How Will The Recent Rulings Affect Foreign Confidence?

[quiksilva]

Yesterday only 3000 people protested on the streets claiming it was an unfair ruling, a few Thai's I speak to think the same but nobody truly seems to be up in arms about the whole affair, in fact most seem to be quite eager to put the whole episode behind them.

I know I am relieved that the predicted hordes of Red shirts and violence never materialised.

It might not be over yet, and perhaps its too early to tell but in the meantime it seems to me that an important (if only small) step has been taken towards restoring confidence.

What do you think and why?

[andy1308]

I too am happy that predictions of widespread violence did not materialize, but until there is clarity and stability then confidence, from overseas especially, will be lacking. The events of this week haven't really brought us any closer to a return to what those outside Thailand would call democracy, but for sure it's a whole lot better than it might have been.

[soundman]

I voted for an improvement, but only just. (thailand is not out of the woods yet by any stretch of the imagination)

On first impressions I would have voted for no change, however, I had two (thai) customers who have been holding their orders off, ring up this morning & place those orders, & this made me change my mind with regards to how the poll is worded.

Foreign confidence is in part driven by local confidence.

Cheers,

Soundman.

[Aujuba]

TRT doesn't have as many supporters as prior to the last election.

Just like people who voted for George Bush would take their vote back now knowing what the truth is many here would do the same for Thaksin. In the past 8 months Thailand has been more open regarding information about TRT and Thaksin. While Thaksin was in, the popular media was virtually blacked out from any critical information about TRT but now there's more open talk. TRT and Thaksin aren't getting a podium but what comes around goes around. I won't say all people are informed but info is getting out and many people do say they have changed their minds about Thaksin. The truth is the majority of TRTs supporters are cheering diehard fans. They just chose TRT on election day. I'm sure that all of us have at one point in our lives supported someone who we wouldn't continue our support for.

Of course anyone who got a loan for a Taxi will cheer Thaksin's name but most people didn't get anything like that. Most taxi drivers I've talked to are unhappy about the fact that there are so many taxis on the road. They can hardly make a living comparable to that in the past. TRT didn't seem to care about flooding the market with more competition. So now the average taxi driver who comes from the countryside often works for less.

[PhilHarries]

Personally I think, as far as foreign business confidence goes, there'll be little if any change.

Thailand has endured one of the most corrupt democratically elected governments ever known removed by a military led coup. The installed administration has blundered along making flip flop policy decisions seemingly based on a suck it and see basis. On top of that, despite promising sign at the outset, they have failed to curb the insurgency in the south. They have failed so far to come up with anything concrete to nail Thaksin on and thus justify the coup. So, to a cynical eye, they manipulate the constitutional court to produce this verdict as justification of their actions.

One would think that after all that lot confidence must surely be at a low point. About the only thing they could do to worsen the situation is declare war on somebody.

Despite all this the Baht bucks all logic and is riding high although IMO it is more the USD riding low giving a distorted view of things.

Provided the court ruling does not provoke a violent backlash I don't see any short term reduction in confidence and long term depends on when Thailand can return to some semblance of democracy. Basically, since the coup, a lot of investment in Thailand has been put on hold and this decision will not affect that one way or another.

[Jingthing]

I think the ruling made, especially putting TRT and Thaksin out of commission, and now no violence (assuming it keeps that way) will be seen both in Thailand and abroad as a major step towards the path towards a new limited democracy constitution, democratic elections of a sort, peace, and increased stability. Rhetoric out of Washingington might be "democracy or death" but the corporations that control the world are much more interested in political stabilty and orderly markets.

To put this a bit more starkly, my strong feeling is that people in Thailand and abroad don't seriously expect Thailand to be a western style democracy anytime in the forseeable future, and most aren't all that upset by that.

Edited June 1, 2007 by Jingthing

[aroimaak]

I don't agree that the ruling was a step towards better democracy. Wallstreet Journal called it quite the opposite. Thaksin, no matter how corrupt, did, as I understand it, improve the Thai economy significantly and the party he created was a driving force for change in Thailand. If someone benefitted from the total dissolution of TRT it's the military junta. Some are calling this a step towards dictatorship. However, SET has gone up over 2 percent today. Does that signal that people are taking the rulings as good news?

[Jingthing]

To be clear, I am also not saying it is a step towards real democracy. Would you expect the pro-Bush right wing Wall Street Journal to be sensitive to the fact that real western style democracies are culturally a real trick to pull off in SE Asia? Instead, I do think it might be a step towards the institutionalization of a less free system, with some superficial aspects of democracy, as little as possible to avoid violent revolt. Call me cynical, but I continue to think most Thais are OK with that. Yeah, Thaksin sure did rock the boat here. See where it got him!

Edited June 1, 2007 by Jingthing

[alexth]

"Yesterday only 3000 people protested on the streets claiming it was an unfair ruling..." How could they raise more if they know the other guys can get their tanks and guns ready in a few minutes?

[Gary A]

It's amazing that we have SO MANY genuine farang experts regarding Thai politics. Just what do you base your opinions on. Thaksin was the MOST corrupt? Obviously the Thaksin haters have not paid much attention to Thai politics in the past. Everyone has an opinion on most subjects whether they know anything about the subject or not. I think many of you would be in a very bad situation is you should have to prove your allegations.

Even the fact that Thailand could be the next Burma doesn't seem to faze the Thaksin haters. Military governments not being accountable to anyone are dangerous.

[ThaiGoon]

Even the fact that Thailand could be the next Burma doesn't seem to faze the Thaksin haters.

Edited June 2, 2007 by ThaiGoon

[Edonista]

I don't agree that the ruling was a step towards better democracy. Wallstreet Journal called it quite the opposite. Thaksin, no matter how corrupt, did, as I understand it, improve the Thai economy significantly and the party he created was a driving force for change in Thailand. If someone benefitted from the total dissolution of TRT it's the military junta. Some are calling this a step towards dictatorship. However, SET has gone up over 2 percent today. Does that signal that people are taking the rulings as good news?

Farang were net buyers for 8 billion baht and local retail were net sellers for 8 billion baht.

That is, people who do not see how things really are took the rulings as good news.

I didn't. Thai stockholders neither.

[bingobongo]

I don't agree that the ruling was a step towards better democracy. Wallstreet Journal called it quite the opposite. Thaksin, no matter how corrupt, did, as I understand it, improve the Thai economy significantly and the party he created was a driving force for change in Thailand. If someone benefitted from the total dissolution of TRT it's the military junta. Some are calling this a step towards dictatorship. However, SET has gone up over 2 percent today. Does that signal that people are taking the rulings as good news?

Farang were net buyers for 8 billion baht and local retail were net sellers for 8 billion baht.

That is, people who do not see how things really are took the rulings as good news.

I didn't. Thai stockholders neither.

you are spot on, foreign speculators are buying, whereas Thais themselves are net sellers:

23-05-2007: Buy Malaysia, Indonesia, avoid Thailand, says CLSA

Investors should steer clear of Thailand and Taiwan, which are riddled with political uncertainty, Christopher Wood told Reuters. He has a "zero" weighting on Thailand for his relative return portfolio, even though the index is at a five-month high.

"I'll get more bullish on Thailand if I see more local investors buying the market. Right now, all you see are locals selling," he said. "But if local confidence comes back, then there'll be a huge buying opportunity."

http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/content.js...e70400-f91929f9

[Jingthing]

Your link was before the decisive ruling. Investors certainly didn't know how the ruling would turn out a week before the event.

[thohts]

One of the guidelines to making a ton of money in foreign economies is that when there is a fire, take advantage of the panic selling and start buying.

[VegasVic]

Your link was before the decisive ruling. Investors certainly didn't know how the ruling would turn out a week before the event.

You are correct Jing, Boingos post was from an atricle before the ruling. I am certain that now a major political party has been outlawed and an easy path for the hunta to remain in power has been laid that thai consumer confidence and consumer spending will plummet even further. I am still waiting for the 800 lb gorilla in the room to drop the other shoe, that is of course the colapse of the Chinese stock market bubble! Come to think of it outlawing a major political party may not be such a bad idea, if only the supreme court would outlaw the demorcat party in the states then perhaps some meaningful legislation and real progress could be made in the US on things such as immigration, taxes, education and spending. P.S. I do hope your man gore gets the nod, then he and mike bloomberg can split the eccentric left winger vote and Fred Thompson will stroll into the oval office!

[Jingthing]

Your link was before the decisive ruling. Investors certainly didn't know how the ruling would turn out a week before the event.

You are correct Jing, Boingos post was from an atricle before the ruling. I am certain that now a major political party has been outlawed and an easy path for the hunta to remain in power has been laid that thai consumer confidence and consumer spending will plummet even further. I am still waiting for the 800 lb gorilla in the room to drop the other shoe, that is of course the colapse of the Chinese stock market bubble! Come to think of it outlawing a major political party may not be such a bad idea, if only the supreme court would outlaw the demorcat party in the states then perhaps some meaningful legislation and real progress could be made in the US on things such as immigration, taxes, education and spending. P.S. I do hope your man gore gets the nod, then he and mike bloomberg can split the eccentric left winger vote and Fred Thompson will stroll into the oval office!

1. So far, so good. Of course, this is only a short term bump. Who knows what the future will bring? Oh, apparently you do!

SET hits 12-month high on renewed confidence

June 2 Bangkok Post

KRISSANA PARNSOONTHORN & NUNTAWUN POLKUAMDEE

Thai shares rose another 2.24% to a new 12-month high as investors expressed optimism about the market and the country on the easing of political tensions. The Stock Exchange of Thailand index closed at 753.93 points, up 16.53, in heavy trade worth 40.37 billion baht, the highest turnover in five months.

2. Its fair to say the governments of US and Thailand have very little in common. Off topic, but your favorite US party for the rich, fear, and aggressive wars recently had 6 whole years of total control and failed miserably. Won't be happening again, anytime soon. Nuff said.

Edited June 2, 2007 by Jingthing

[VegasVic]

Your link was before the decisive ruling. Investors certainly didn't know how the ruling would turn out a week before the event.

You are correct Jing, Boingos post was from an atricle before the ruling. I am certain that now a major political party has been outlawed and an easy path for the hunta to remain in power has been laid that thai consumer confidence and consumer spending will plummet even further. I am still waiting for the 800 lb gorilla in the room to drop the other shoe, that is of course the colapse of the Chinese stock market bubble! Come to think of it outlawing a major political party may not be such a bad idea, if only the supreme court would outlaw the demorcat party in the states then perhaps some meaningful legislation and real progress could be made in the US on things such as immigration, taxes, education and spending. P.S. I do hope your man gore gets the nod, then he and mike bloomberg can split the eccentric left winger vote and Fred Thompson will stroll into the oval office!

1. So far, so good. Of course, this is only a short term bump. Who knows what the future will bring? Oh, apparently you do!

SET hits 12-month high on renewed confidence

June 2 Bangkok Post

KRISSANA PARNSOONTHORN & NUNTAWUN POLKUAMDEE

Thai shares rose another 2.24% to a new 12-month high as investors expressed optimism about the market and the country on the easing of political tensions. The Stock Exchange of Thailand index closed at 753.93 points, up 16.53, in heavy trade worth 40.37 billion baht, the highest turnover in five months.

2. Its fair to say the governments of US and Thailand have very little in common. Off topic, but your favorite US party for the rich, fear, and aggressive wars recently had 6 whole years of total control and failed miserably. Won't be happening again, anytime soon. Nuff said.

The investors that are sending both the SET index and baht to new highs are not thai investors but foriegn investors, consumer confidence and consumer spending is thailand is getting worse everyday. When the Chinese stock market colapses so to will the SET along with the baht. Then in 08 you will be in for another major dissapointment as Mike Bloomberg will indeed enter the race as a 3rd party candidate and siphon off 15-20% of the vote from the democrats(just as Ross Perot did to the Rupulicans in 92) and virtually any Rupublican candidate will be able to stroll into the oval office once again. Mark this post and watch and learn silly boy, when the Chinese market bubble bursts that will be your wake up call, if you don't "get it" by then you never will!