Thai GDP unlikely to meet pre-pandemic levels until second half of 2023, analysts say

[webfact]

 

By Panithan Onthaworn

 

In light of the Russia-Ukraine war, Thailand’s Covid-battered economy will not return to pre-pandemic levels until the second half of next year, economists said on Tuesday.

 

The Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) has reassessed the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for 2022 to 2.7 per cent from the previous 3.2 per cent. 

 

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Economists say that the cut was unavoidable considering the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war. The conflict has led to worsening inflation and spiked energy prices that impaired household spending power and business sentiment in Thailand.

 

Full story: https://www.thaienquirer.com/39016/thai-gdp-unlikely-to-meet-pre-pandemic-levels-until-second-half-of-2023-analysts-say/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Enquirer 2022-03-30

 

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[IAMHERE]

There has been inflation. Wouldn't the GDP have to be 2019 plus about 10% to be back like before ?

[RichardColeman]

pre economy GDP growth and a pre covid economy are well different.

 

Thailand could have been growing 8-10% this year and 10 or 15% next year if all the tourists had come back and they had dropped the daftness on entry. 

 

Thailand economy getting back to pre pandemic levels in my opinion wont happen until full tourism and 'confidence' in Thailand tourism returns - including the return Chinese and Russians - and that is years of, I'd say 2025 at earliest for pre pandemic levels what with the nutty Chinese zero policy and fresh lockdowns and the mad Putin killing kids

 

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

In light of the Russia-Ukraine war, Thailand’s Covid-battered economy will not return to pre-pandemic levels until the second half of next year, economists said on Tuesday.

Very optimistic even at that.

[tjo o tjim]

43 minutes ago, IAMHERE said:

There has been inflation. Wouldn't the GDP have to be 2019 plus about 10% to be back like before ?

The inflation is the only thing that will bring them close to the 2019 numbers... quiet!!

[SantiSuk]

6 minutes ago, hotchilli said:

Very optimistic even at that.

Agreed. Its the "best case scenario".

Worst case scenario is that we have not yet seen the damage caused by government spending on the pandemic and a global recession is only a whisker away. Equally likely IMO.

Markets are gripped by young soothsayers desperate to talk up the market, believing it's all about sentiment not hard facts.

 

[StayinThailand2much]

Why? Reportedly, full employment (unemployment rate of only about 2%), (relatively) low inflation (according to the government), record exports, (reported) low Covid numbers... 'Suddenly' not such a great outlook, just because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

Edited March 30, 2022 by StayinThailand2much

[pokerface1]

This has got to be the hub of defect crystal balls. Predictions are always up they never seems to go down. Only on Thai Visa do we have real balls that work well. 

[sammieuk1]

If you have a covid battered economy why don't you have a covid battered Baht I wonder ????

[Excel]

There they go again using the Russia/Ukraine conflict as a the reason for a disastrous economic outcome and to deny that this government's economic policies and covid recovery methodology  are to blame.  I suspect that recovery mid  2023 is a pipedream for them especially as the destruction that they, the elite and puppet masters have deliberately wrecked the Thai tourism industry for many years to come.