Thai Baht May Hit 30 To The Us Dollar

[Steely Dan]

more then the baht getting stronger. ts the dollar that is getting weaker.

This seems to be the conventional wisdom/excuse/reason given for the current trend and motivated me to undertake a little research to see exactly how other currencies have fared against the Thai Baht over the last year.

This is what I found.

(Note: These figures are approximate. I've used one-year currency pair graphs from Yahoo to arrive at these figures. I apologize if I've left out any member's home currency)

USD - THB: drop = 21%

EUR - THB: drop = 15%

GBP - THB: drop = 15.6%

AUD - THB: drop = 12% (Australia)

CAD - THB: drop = 18% (Canada)

PHP - THB: drop = 13.5% (Philippines)

JPY - THB: drop = 25.75% (Japan)

SGD - THB: drop = 17.9% (Singapore)

CHF - THB: drop = 19.4% (Switzerland)

TWD - THB: drop = 23.7% (Taiwan)

ZAR - THB: drop = 22.5% (South Africa)

MYR - THB: drop = 15% (Malaysia)

NOK - THB: drop = 15.5% (Norway)

SAR - THB: drop = 20.8% (Saudi Arabia)

HKD - THB: drop = 22.5% (Hong Kong)

KRW - THB: drop = 18.75% (Korea)

CHY - THB: drop = 18.75% (China)

INR - THB: drop = 10.8% (India)

AED - THB: drop = 22.1% (UAE)

BRL - THB: drop = 10% (Brazil)

HUF - THB: drop = 7% (Hungary)

The winner is NZD (New Zealand) with about a 1% gain.

The conclusion is obvious. There's more to this than a declining US dollar.

I find it puzzling how the Thai Baht manages to outperform most other world currencies while Thailand is in the midst of a military dictatorship. Thailand seems to do everything it can to destroy its economy yet its currency strengthens beyond compare.

Well there are two possible explainations for the Baht's strength. Either the Thai economy is a worldbeater or speculators are bidding up the Baht for their own ends. Of course the speculators will intend on winning twice when they reverse their positions. P.S Dollar looking to have found a level to rise off against Sterling and the Euro.

[Mid]

P.S Dollar looking to have found a level to rise off against Sterling and the Euro.

ditto the yen ??

[marshbags]

B. Post today 26-07-2007

Quote

Offshore baht must go

By Parista Yuthamanop

Authorities should look to eliminate baht held by offshore investors to ward off future speculation when the local currency weakens, says Phirasilp Suphapolsiri, the president of BankThai.

He said new measures announced this week to ease restrictions on Thai residents investing abroad and holding foreign currency in local deposits were only short-term steps to stabilise the baht.

"For the long term, we must ask ourselves whether we really want a single baht market. And why does the offshore baht remain necessary? Our neighbours do not allow their currencies to exist in the offshore market," Mr Phirasilp said yesterday. He said offshore investors had held baht-denominated assets since the early 1990s under a policy by the government of the day to make Thailand a regional financial centre

Ref. url for the full article:-

http://www.bangkokpost.com/topstories/tops...s.php?id=120453

marshbags

[Martin]

"The strategy was no longer relevant, he said, adding that Thailand should focus on sustainable growth and moderation. But Mr Phirasilp said the Bank of Thailand had failed to address the problem, although he admitted that liquidity in the offshore baht market was thin.

The central bank has allowed investors in overseas markets to borrow from local financial institutions for one month until August 17 to roll over swap contracts that have underlying transactions. The measure is aimed at reducing the disparity between the onshore and onshore baht rates caused by its 30% reserve requirement, which had made it more difficult for investors to borrow baht.

"The measures are fine. But they still allow investors to take baht to the offshore market. I expect the central bank to have comprehensive measures. We should not be afraid to be called backward, if the actions allow us to move forward," Mr Phirasilp said."

As a small number of contrarian lemmings said, as they moved aside to sit on the hillside and observe the majority doing their thing: "Call us lonely and confused little creatures if you like. But we are going to sit out for a while".

Actually, Mr Phirasilp is only echoing the words of the PM, to the world's Ambassadors to Bangkok and the JFCCT, in January:

" In fact, the 'Sufficiency Economy Philosophy' is a Thai model for sustainability, the importance of which is only now becoming recognized around the world. As an early adopter of a sustainable approach to development, Thailand should, I believe, be praised, for it is a path down which every country or company will have to travel sooner rather than later."

Many an Ambassador, for instance the British one, may have felt: "Chance is a fine thing. You have it, Thailand; but my country simply has to do unsustainable things in order to import the food that we need. 'Sooner or later' will come, but my political masters are just trying to delay it till after their watch ends."

Nearly twenty years ago, when I had just moved over there from Brunei, I was chatting with one of Singapore's Cabinet Ministers, and we got onto the subject of 'true maps'. (That is those maps, like the one of the world that showed all the British Empire in red, that depict who owns, or controls what.) I mentioned that there would be a blob of Brunei's yellow (gold) colour in Australia, as the Brunei Development Corporation was reported to have bought a ranch in Australia that was bigger than Brunei itself. That Minister said: "We would be a lot happier if we could own a rice farm, or two or more, in Thailand, that was bigger than Singapore."

That brought home to me that the fundamentals are the feeding and housing (with sufficient heating or cooling, if necessary) of the populace.

Could this changing of the baht/dollar rate simply be a manifestation of the realisation that Thailand has a lot less disruptive change to go through to look after its fundamentals in the times that are a'changing?

The present figures are 60%, 30%, and 10% for Thailand's agricultural, manufacturing, and tourism employment.

To move to 85%, 13%, 2% over a generation as industrialism and consumerism wane, and only oil-rich Arabs and Russians can afford long-haul holidays, should be quite within Thailand's scope.

We will live in interesting times.

[bkkandrew]

Offshore baht must go

But the BOT created it by introducing the currency controls...

[Naam]

Offshore baht must go

But the BOT created it by introducing the currency controls...

impossible! some <deleted>' farangs are the culprits

[bkkandrew]

Offshore baht must go

But the BOT created it by introducing the currency controls...

impossible! some <deleted>' farangs are the culprits

Yes - I can see it. Some scheming felang infiltrated the BOT and established the Currency Controls, then profiteered once the dual rate was established. I await some sort of announcement soon that this felang terrorist attack has now been uncovered and righted - by a Thai removing the offending controls!

[A_Traveller]

Thanks for sharing this.

Regards

[marshbags]

The old bum started twitching when i read the post S.Baht as i thought we,d been invaded by a new virus / worm.

Perhaps you could expand on your contribution for the thickies like me who cannot understand it.

As you have posted as a newbie i,m inclined to assume this is a possible TROLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

marshbags

Edited July 27, 2007 by marshbags

[Mai Krap]

I was told yesterday by a Thai Business that they will no longer take Paypal because the current rate was quoted at 22 baht per dollar. The source is reliable but maybe someone can check this out and comment who uses paypal.

[jackr]

I was told yesterday by a Thai Business that they will no longer take Paypal because the current rate was quoted at 22 baht per dollar. The source is reliable but maybe someone can check this out and comment who uses paypal.

I'd say it's BS as XE are currently quoting over 30 (29.9 yesterday).

[captainstabbin]

I was told yesterday by a Thai Business that they will no longer take Paypal because the current rate was quoted at 22 baht per dollar. The source is reliable but maybe someone can check this out and comment who uses paypal.

I'd say it's BS as XE are currently quoting over 30 (29.9 yesterday).

I say he has got the wrong dollar. AUS perhaps?

[calibanjr.]

As per usual, it's "so what?" for me, just did just under $10k at 33.5 BKK Bank, on-shore be nice.

Edited August 1, 2007 by calibanjr.

[Penkoprod]

I was told yesterday by a Thai Business that they will no longer take Paypal because the current rate was quoted at 22 baht per dollar. The source is reliable but maybe someone can check this out and comment who uses paypal.

I'd say it's BS as XE are currently quoting over 30 (29.9 yesterday).

Knowing what robbing b*stards Paypal are, i wouldnt be suprised if 22 Baht per dollar isnt THAT far off the mark (maybe the Thai business calculated in the P/Pal charges in the figures)

I did a GBP-USD Paypal transaction just a matter of an hour ago

XE are quoting 2.02422..........i got a little over 1.97

Penkoprod

[Murf]

£ down to 57.

How longs it gunna last before we see an upturn?

This is killing me.

[thaibeachlovers]

£ down to 57.

How longs it gunna last before we see an upturn?

This is killing me.

Likewise. If this trend keeps up it's going to be pre '97 exchange rates, but everything twice the price of back then.

With the daily worsening economic situation in Europe and airfares still high, it's going to look like low season during the high season.

Wonder if they'll discover that they really do still want low level tourists to come, when families discover that they'd rather eat and pay the mortgage, than take overseas holidays.

[thailand_tom]

Enjoy your VERY short day in the sun. Don't forget your sunscreen.

Excuse me? Not sure what you mean by that - I was simply pointing out that the Dollar has dropped rather than the Baht having strengthened. The £ is still 68-70 against the Baht, much the same as it was 2 months ago. I repeat - I'm not gloating, merely observing.

i have no idea what you are talking about fx is showing the bp 58 against the baht..and the fx price is the high..so you may be looking at 54-56 ..is this post a year old or what.

[jdinasia]

Enjoy your VERY short day in the sun. Don't forget your sunscreen.

Excuse me? Not sure what you mean by that - I was simply pointing out that the Dollar has dropped rather than the Baht having strengthened. The £ is still 68-70 against the Baht, much the same as it was 2 months ago. I repeat - I'm not gloating, merely observing.

i have no idea what you are talking about fx is showing the bp 58 against the baht..and the fx price is the high..so you may be looking at 54-56 ..is this post a year old or what.

see the dates at the top of each post?

[LaoPo]

£ down to 57.

How longs it gunna last before we see an upturn?

This is killing me.

Murf, maybe better join the thread below as this one is over a year old.....AND Dollar related as well, not GBP.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Sterling-Sht...ek-t159135.html

LaoPo

[PeaceBlondie]

So, fifteen months ago, the baht briefly touched below 30 to the dollar. It is now above 34. To quote Guns 'n Roses, where do we go from here?

[unforgiven]

Baht 'may hit 30 to $'

Experts urge BOT to be vigilant

BANGKOK: -- A currency expert believes the baht could rise to 30 to the US dollar due to market mechanisms if the Bank of Thailand (BOT) does not intervene in the level of the currency, while exporters urged the central bank to slow the baht's appreciation.

Adisak Kammoon, vice president of KGI Securities (Thailand), said the movement of the baht would have to be closely monitored.

"The Bank of Thailand still doesn't let the baht move freely according to market forces, which is considered dangerous because it may quietly lead to another financial crisis," he said. "Thus, as long as the Bank of Thailand is not confident that the exporters will be able to compete on their own, it is unlikely that the 30 per cent capital control will be revoked. There is a possibility that there may be additional measures to prevent the baht from rising further. If the baht is allowed to move according to the market, the level of the baht should be Bt30."

His comments came after the baht turned stronger to a fresh 10-year high at Bt34.19-34.21 yesterday compared to the closing value of Bt34.33 on Tuesday, mainly due to inflows to the stock exchange. The Thai stock market has rallied for three days in a row, boosting the SET index by more than 20 per cent. The baht also appreciated by 0.51 per cent against the euro from Tuesday and 0.36 per cent from last month. The baht against Japanese yen was up 0.45 per cent from Tuesday and 0.15 per cent from last month.

The baht has turned dramatically stronger compared with major currencies. It opened yesterday at Bt34.20 to the greenback, up 0.47 per cent from Tuesday and 0.96 per cent from the end of June.

A trader said the baht rose further after it broke the Bt34.50 barrier. "Some Thai exporters sold dollars in big lots yesterday," said the trader, who asked not be named.

The Customs Department said it has so far lost Bt3 billion in revenue due to the baht appreciation, which has recently touched a 10-year high, as well as the country's obligation to follow the Asean Free Trade Agreement (Afta).

Customs Department director-general Chavalit Sethameteekul said yesterday the stronger baht and lower income from Afta will cost the department around Bt3 billion in lost revenue.

He said in the third quarter the department expected to collect around Bt20 billion in revenue or around Bt7 billion per month. The department is likely to collect around Bt88 billion in tax revenue for 2007 fiscal year, while revenue in the next fiscal year is forecast at a slightly lower figure of Bt87 billion. The department's income will fall next year mainly due to further tariff cuts following Afta obligations.

Meanwhile, the private sector has called on the BOT to find measures to curb the baht's appreciation after it was quoted yesterday at Bt34.17 per dollar.

The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) will meet the central bank in a week or two if the baht keeps getting stronger, its chairman Santi Vilassakdanont said. He said the appreciation was caused by the flow of capital into Thailand's stock market and the influx of dollars from exporters.

He said the BOT has to consider whether the stronger baht was in line with other countries in the region.

Santi said the Thai currency market was more vulnerable to flows of foreign capital compared to other countries such as China, Japan and Vietnam due to the country's fewer regulations.

Although the total value of exports in the first half grew around 16 per cent, this does not mean that exporters will enjoy that growth, he said. On the contrary, they had to boost their exports in order to keep their customer base, while they could not earn any profit.

Nonetheless, Santi believes the country's export value will grow by 12.5 per cent - the same as the Commerce Ministry's target at the beginning of this year.

Boonkij Jitngamplang, chairman of FTI's Gem and Jewellery Industry Club, said operators in this industry were seriously affected by the stronger baht.

"If the BOT is unable to stabilise the baht, we will see a number of gem and jewellery operators close down their business this year," he said.

However, the central bank sees no need to intervene.

BOT deputy governor Atchana Waiquamdee said so far the baht has appreciated by four per cent from the beginning of this year but the central bank does not need to step into the market to halt the baht's movement.

"It is normal that the baht is stronger when there is demand for baht but we do not need to take care of it specifically," she said.

She conceded that the withholding reserve requirement could not prevent the appreciation of the baht as the measure did not cover portfolio investments by non-residents.

BOT governor Tarisa Watanagase said a large amount of capital has flowed into the country over the past few days but the baht movement remained in line with regional currencies. The baht rose by 5 per cent from the beginning of the year, compared to the Philippines peso at 6.7 per cent and the Indian rupee at 8.9 per cent.

The foreign funds flocking to the Thai bourse reflected the Kingdom's sound economic fundamental factors with a low P/E ratio.

Tarisa said despite the amount of foreign inflows into portfolios earlier, the baht had been stable due to demand for dollars from importers. The appreciating baht, however, does not translate into an absolute disadvantage for Thailand as it also indicated an increase in the Kingdom's purchasing power for imported goods.

She said the BOT would intervene in the foreign exchange market whenever the baht swung too much, just like in December last year when it appreciated by one per cent a week.

The BOT has encouraged institutional investors to invest abroad in order to increase investment choice and reduce pressure on the strong baht. However, they have exercised their rights to only 27 per cent of the approved ceiling. Last year, such investments increased sevenfold compared with 2005.

Deputy Prime Minister and Industry Minister Kosit Panpiemras attributed the rise of the baht to the fact that the business sector has began to become convinced that the Thai economy will be resolved for the better.

--The Nation 2007-07-09

The price to earnings ratiio plus the diviidend % makes this market a sleeping tiger......forgien capital degridation via sub prime exposiure is not a core consideration as all the of this intermediate downturn is is a result of a world wide ripple effect, shortly Thai stocks will greratly app reciate

[unforgiven]

£ down to 57.

How longs it gunna last before we see an upturn?

This is killing me.

Likewise. If this trend keeps up it's going to be pre '97 exchange rates, but everything twice the price of back then.

With the daily worsening economic situation in Europe and airfares still high, it's going to look like low season during the high season.

Wonder if they'll discover that they really do still want low level tourists to come, when families discover that they'd rather eat and pay the mortgage, than take overseas holidays.

If your invested in thai stocks...........6 month max. Look for buying signals as the thai market is way oversold

[madi]

Just thought I would update this place to show how completely wrong some of your predictions were.

No

The US dollar did not go to 30 against the baht.

It is in fact near 35 and getting stronger. This is despite the meltdown in America which is likely going to get much worse. For those who got it wrong on the currency, it is because as screwed up as the USA is, it is still considered by big money to be more secure than the rest of the world. So we get the flight toward the US dollar. It is all relative you know. All of the economies will tank so which place is safest for your currency? People move their money based on this.

Remember those saying all was fine and the baht was going to 30 against the dollar?

Thailand is NOT in a good economic way despite the denial we hear from the government. What do we expect it to say? You think they will tell us all is going down hard? it is far more likely that you will see the Baht at 40 to the US dollar than at 30 to the US dollar in the next 6 months.

NO--Europe and the world economies are NOT DE-coupled from the US economy.

European economies are all falling into recession now. Its banks are also in deep trouble. The stock market has crashed in most of Europe and Asia. China has seen its market collapse. Maybe the EU will collapse if put under severe economic pressure but oh well--who cares.

Funny how some of you likely lived here in Thailand when Indonesia collapsed and took Thailand down with it and now you thought the collapse of America and Europe economical would not hurt Thailand.

That was just wishful and childish thinking on your parts.

Thailand's economy will crash.

Its poor will suffer.

Its government will remain very very unstable.

Come on now--Many of you do not care ---most of you living here. You live off the cheap here and like lower prices.

Be honest.

Cheaper beer and cheaper company is all you care about.

The Thai people can go hungry in the countryside and you never even see them. You stuff your mouths and drink cheap beer while acting like clowns.

You are like the drunken reporters in the Movie-The Year of Living Dangerously--. You just laugh and use here.

It is a sad live for them but sad for you too if you do not care.

Oh well

Most of you are USERS.

You got used back in your home nations and then you came here to use others.

So it goes.

I hope for better for all Thai people.

Thailand is for Thais. They will solve problems or not solve them.

That much is true.

They do not need nor do they want advice from ignorant people from other nations.

I am not picking on you here who agree with me so sorry if it seems I am.

Lots of us non-Thai do see it his way.

[madi]

Just thought I would update this place to show how completely wrong some of your predictions were.

No

The US dollar did not go to 30 against the baht.

It is in fact near 35 and getting stronger. This is despite the meltdown in America which is likely going to get much worse. For those who got it wrong on the currency, it is because as screwed up as the USA is, it is still considered by big money to be more secure than the rest of the world. So we get the flight toward the US dollar. It is all relative you know. All of the economies will tank so which place is safest for your currency? People move their money based on this.

Remember those saying all was fine and the baht was going to 30 against the dollar?

Thailand is NOT in a good economic way despite the denial we hear from the government. What do we expect it to say? You think they will tell us all is going down hard? it is far more likely that you will see the Baht at 40 to the US dollar than at 30 to the US dollar in the next 6 months.

NO--Europe and the world economies are NOT DE-coupled from the US economy.

European economies are all falling into recession now. Its banks are also in deep trouble. The stock market has crashed in most of Europe and Asia. China has seen its market collapse. Maybe the EU will collapse if put under severe economic pressure but oh well--who cares.

Funny how some of you likely lived here in Thailand when Indonesia collapsed and took Thailand down with it and now you thought the collapse of America and Europe economical would not hurt Thailand.

That was just wishful and childish thinking on your parts.

Thailand's economy will crash.

Its poor will suffer.

Its government will remain very very unstable.

Come on now--Many of you do not care ---most of you living here. You live off the cheap here and like lower prices.

Be honest.

Cheaper beer and cheaper company is all you care about.

The Thai people can go hungry in the countryside and you never even see them. You stuff your mouths and drink cheap beer while acting like clowns.

You are like the drunken reporters in the Movie-The Year of Living Dangerously--. You just laugh and use here.

It is a sad live for them but sad for you too if you do not care.

Oh well

Most of you are USERS.

You got used back in your home nations and then you came here to use others.

So it goes.

I hope for better for all Thai people.

Thailand is for Thais. They will solve problems or not solve them.

That much is true.

They do not need nor do they want advice from ignorant people from other nations.

I am not picking on you here who agree with me so sorry if it seems I am.

Lots of us non-Thai do see it his way.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Off a cliff

Oct 10th 2008 | NEW YORK, TOKYO

From Economistdotcom

Markets in America, Asia and Europe plummet, as fears grow over financial and economic conditions

Shutterstock

MARKETS in Asia and Europe plummeted on Friday October 10th. Japan’s stockmarket ended the week in disarray: the Nikkei 225-share index fell by 24% on the week, twice the weekly fall of the 1987 crash. It is now at five-and-a-half-year lows. Europe followed suit. London’s FTSE 100 slumped by more than 10% within minutes of opening; by mid-morning European stocks were also down, with Germany's DAX index down by more than 8%. Amid widespread anxiety the oil price also tumbled, to around $81 a barrel, its lowest level in a year.

The falls underline that stockmarkets, traumatised by the near-paralysis in credit markets, the collapse of once-mighty banks and the prospect of global recession, are suffering what has been dubbed a “cascading crash”: a series of blows which, added together, are stomach-churning.

Wall Street is unimpressed by the TARP, America’s much-vaunted $700-billion bail-out. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had plunged by 679 points, or 7.3% on Thursday. Nor are markets reassured by a bevy of bank rescues, a co-ordinated rate cut by the world’s leading central banks, the Federal Reserve’s radical decision to buy commercial paper, Britain’s £500 billion ($861 billion) bail-out package, nor the raft of piecemeal rescues by other European governments. On Thursday the International Monetary Fund activated a procedure to offer emergency loans to threatened countries, such as Iceland, which took over its largest bank on Thursday.

In Asia, which had been relatively insulated from recent woes, panic selling set in, as markets slumped in Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan, among others. Indonesia's fell by 10.4% on Wednesday before regulators suspended trading. (Equity trading was also suspended in several European exchanges, including those of Russia, Austria and Iceland.)

At the start of this latest phase of the credit crisis, Japan's financial markets had seemed to float over the top of the global turmoil. Lehman Brothers' collapse, admittedly, had shut off the samurai market used by overseas companies to issue yen-dominated bonds, while overseas banks had trouble getting overnight funds until the Bank of Japan stepped in with assurances. Otherwise Japan's financial markets had functioned pretty smoothly, with well-capitalised banks lending freely to each other and, in the case of Mitsubishi UFJ, one of the big three, snapping up the apparent bargain of a 21% stake in Morgan Stanley for $9 billion. (Morgan Stanley's shares tumbled by 25% on Thursday as investors once again bet that its days as an independent firm are numbered.)

Now all hope that Japan might remain aloof is gone. Overseas hedge funds have been panic sellers of shares. Even cast-iron Japanese government bonds are being shunned in favour of cash—leaving questions about how the government is to refinance a lot of debt coming due over the next month or more. On Friday Yamato Life, a medium-sized insurer, filed for bankruptcy, the first Japanese life insurer to go under in seven years.

In America the scale of the fall is dramatic. A year ago the Dow, resilient in the face of what then seemed only a subprime-mortgage crisis, hit an all-time high of a whisker over 14,000. It is now some 40% lower, having fallen double the distance that signals a bear market. In the past seven trading days alone it has lost 21% of its value.

There is a good deal of bewilderment, as well as fear. Many had assumed that the strenuous, if belated, actions by governments to restore confidence in debt markets would bring a semblance of calm. But these efforts have so far done little to convince markets that the worst is over.

Private-sector predictions of the pain to come are getting darker by the day: Weiss Research reckons that more than 1,600 American banks and thrifts, with $3.2 trillion of assets, are at risk. AIG, an American insurer that had already needed an $85 billion loan, has tapped the Federal Reserve for a further $38 billion to keep itself liquid. And cracks have appeared in the industry’s last remaining pillars of strength as it becomes clear that big losses are coming in consumer and corporate credit as well as mortgages. There were signs on Thursday that confidence was ebbing in another relatively unscathed American titan, Wells Fargo, whose shares finished down by some 15%.

Not only are buyers of stocks conspicuously absent, but much of the selling is forced. All agree that there will be no meaningful recovery until the credit markets are unclogged. The rates at which banks lend to each other are still at or near records. The rate at which companies can borrow over short periods is starting to fall, but only slightly. Longer-term borrowing markets are still mostly shut.

Fixing credit markets could prevent a depression, but a nasty recession looks all but guaranteed. Among those expected to be most affected are retailers, who have been slashing profit forecasts, and the already beleaguered carmakers. The latter have used customer-finance to prop up sales in recent years. General Motors’ shares went into free-fall on Thursday, dropping 31% after a rating agency threatened to downgrade its debt. The once mighty firm now has a market capitalisation of just $2.7 billion.

Finance ministers of the group of seven rich countries are set to meet in Washington, DC, on Friday. The rest of the world’s finance ministers and central bankers join them this weekend for the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank. As the damage to the real economy is becoming apparent, the challenge is to come up with a comprehensive, co-ordinated intervention that might just begin to restore confidence.

[PeaceBlondie]

I only said today that the baht went below 30, because a post in this thread said so. I never got fewer than 31.25 baht for a dollar. Other folks on ThaiVisa have talked about a return to the glory, fake days of the fixed rate of 25:1, Only the perennial rose-colored glasses worn by britmaveric have predicted a return to the nearly equally fake days of 40 and above.

It seems amazing that a 40% drop in the Dow-Jones stock market is joined by a strong dollar. Flight to quality.

[ray08]

Thailand is for Thais. They will solve problems or not solve them.

That much is true.

They do not need nor do they want advice from ignorant people from other nations.

I am not picking on you here who agree with me so sorry if it seems I am.

Lots of us non-Thai do see it his way.

Thailand is a major exporter ,and also relies on a massive tourist trade for income across all sectors ,to say Thailand is for Thailand is all good ,but without the foreign buyers for thai products and without foreign tourists the country and its people would be in a similar state to the worse African nations ,bankrupt and very poor

You can't bite the hand that feeds you, these other nations are the ones sending tourist over and buying thai exports .

[VegasVic]

Just thought I would update this place to show how completely wrong some of your predictions were.

No

The US dollar did not go to 30 against the baht.

It is in fact near 35 and getting stronger. This is despite the meltdown in America which is likely going to get much worse. For those who got it wrong on the currency, it is because as screwed up as the USA is, it is still considered by big money to be more secure than the rest of the world. So we get the flight toward the US dollar. It is all relative you know. All of the economies will tank so which place is safest for your currency? People move their money based on this.

Remember those saying all was fine and the baht was going to 30 against the dollar?

Thailand is NOT in a good economic way despite the denial we hear from the government. What do we expect it to say? You think they will tell us all is going down hard? it is far more likely that you will see the Baht at 40 to the US dollar than at 30 to the US dollar in the next 6 months.

NO--Europe and the world economies are NOT DE-coupled from the US economy.

European economies are all falling into recession now. Its banks are also in deep trouble. The stock market has crashed in most of Europe and Asia. China has seen its market collapse. Maybe the EU will collapse if put under severe economic pressure but oh well--who cares.

Funny how some of you likely lived here in Thailand when Indonesia collapsed and took Thailand down with it and now you thought the collapse of America and Europe economical would not hurt Thailand.

That was just wishful and childish thinking on your parts.

Thailand's economy will crash.

Its poor will suffer.

Its government will remain very very unstable.

Come on now--Many of you do not care ---most of you living here. You live off the cheap here and like lower prices.

Be honest.

Cheaper beer and cheaper company is all you care about.

The Thai people can go hungry in the countryside and you never even see them. You stuff your mouths and drink cheap beer while acting like clowns.

You are like the drunken reporters in the Movie-The Year of Living Dangerously--. You just laugh and use here.

It is a sad live for them but sad for you too if you do not care.

Oh well

Most of you are USERS.

You got used back in your home nations and then you came here to use others.

So it goes.

I hope for better for all Thai people.

Thailand is for Thais. They will solve problems or not solve them.

That much is true.

They do not need nor do they want advice from ignorant people from other nations.

I am not picking on you here who agree with me so sorry if it seems I am.

Lots of us non-Thai do see it his way.

Your post is spot on madi! The Thai economy had better get prepared for a big hit, and as you so astutely pointed out it will be the Thai lower classes (both urban and rural) who will feel the brunt of the downturn and the inflation. The baht is temporarily being proped up (vs. the Dollar) by the BOT, but this cannot go on indefinately. I would expect that the baht will gravitate back to the 41-43/Dollar range by the end of 2009 or early 2010, as this is the average price range since the 97 crisis. The primary reason that the baht went from 42 to 31 over the last couple of years was the overseas investment Dollars pouring into the SET and real estate developemnet in Thailand, currently those foreign funds are liquidating their holdings in the SET and overseas $ are no longer pouring into Thailand for real estate developments. The BOT realises this problem, and have been spending their Dollar reserves to buy up baht as those foriegn funds liqiudate their baht investment holdings. My hopes and prayers are with the Thai people especially those in the cities and the countryside who are just barely getting by.

[VegasVic]

I only said today that the baht went below 30, because a post in this thread said so. I never got fewer than 31.25 baht for a dollar. Other folks on ThaiVisa have talked about a return to the glory, fake days of the fixed rate of 25:1, Only the perennial rose-colored glasses worn by britmaveric have predicted a return to the nearly equally fake days of 40 and above.

It seems amazing that a 40% drop in the Dow-Jones stock market is joined by a strong dollar. Flight to quality.

P.B. I think that your line "the fake days of the fixed rate of 25:1.....equally fake rate of 40 and above" should probably read "the fake days of the 25baht/Dollar or the equally fake days of the baht in the upper 50's/Dollar" because as we all know the baht has made some wild swings since 1997 but it has always gravitated back to the low 40's/Dollar every time after one of those swings Yes, flight to quality or more appropriately flight to safety is certainly one of the reasons for the Dollars rise as of late, and this trend will continue. One of the other reasons for the Dollars comeback is the crash of the oil bubble. The Dollar got hammered as oil prices rose and as oil is falling the Dollar will be the prime beneficiary. The 40% drop in the Dow from a year ago while certainly shocking and painful for many, is a much smaller drop than many other exchanges around the world, like the Shanghai exchange that is down nearly 70% from a year ago, or right here in Thailand the SET is down around 50% from its highs. When you take everything into context it really isn't so amazing that the Dollar is gaining strength or will continue to do so, perhaps you have been spending too much of your time getting information here on thaivisa reading posts on how the Dollar is dead or the Dollar is worthless, there is a strong anti U.S. bias here on tv so in the future take everything you read here with a grain of salt

[PeaceBlondie]

Thanks, VegasVic. I surely do spend too much time on ThaiVisa.

I hope you are right about 40 being the normal exchange rate, since my pensions are in dollars. It has been just long enough since I have been getting 40 or even 37, that 40 seems like the glory days. Looking now at yahoo's imperfect chart since 1/1/1999, it indicates the range has gone from a start of 36.38 to present 34.40. The highs were around 45.7, in 2001. If there were any numbers in the 50 range, it was briefly after unpegging, before 1999. Ten years is not much history, and we agree that an artificial peg at 25 before 1998 was a false, forced number.

The rate was above 40.0 from July 2000 to Dec 2007 - which is 75% of this ten year period. Whew, now I feel better! If only I could have bought the second new Honda at 41.8 this year, like I bought the first one in 2003.....

[Martin]

Just over two years ago, I had to write a 'spoof' of a letter to a friend in 2036 (i.e. thirty years ahead from then).

Seems that I wasn't far off. This is part of what I wrote:

"My black pudding and sausages come to my freezer via an overnight bus. I order them (and other Western food) from an English butcher in Pattaya and one of his employees puts the keep-frozen container on the Rayong to Nong Khai bus that transports Laos labourers up and down to the Eastern Seaboard factories around Rayong.

When we started doing this, forty years ago, those buses were more frequent because Thailand’s manufacturing for export was thriving.

The crash of 2009 and the resulting Second Depression put most of those factories out of business, and only a few can compete with China and India for the bit of demand that still remains. Another sign of the times is that, whereas I used to have the choice of eight, there is now only one flight a day from here to Bangkok. That is not really surprising when the fare in real terms (i.e relative to the price of Thai gold) is twelve times what it was.

You have done the sensible thing in moving to join your retired son in Southern Turkey, and getting away from those horrendous UK winter-heating bills. Little did we realize 60 years ago, when we worked together in Leeds, how our lives would have to alter when the cheap supplies of bulk energy, that underpinned them then, became a thing of the past.

Thailand is faring better than Northern European and North American countries in the transition to the Post-Industrial Age.

For one thing, the middle-class was relatively small, and its members didn’t start the Depression with such crushing levels of debt on their credit cards and mortgages on over-valued houses.

We had only had one generation of industrialization before 2009, and (although Bangkok had become a hyperurbanised primate city) 60% of the county’s population were still in agriculture, and most of them were still self-sufficient in rice, plus a bit of cash cropping.

Hence the workers who lost their jobs as a result of 2009 were able to ‘come home’ to the rural villages of their grandparents and learn peasantry. Fortunately, there was land for them. Great tracts of land had been cleared around the 1980s and put to sugarcane and starch roots. These were convertible to labour-intensive rainfall-rice cultivation in small family units.

And, thanks to the Internet and satellite tv, life in a rural village wasn’t as mind-numbingly non-intellectual as it was for earlier generations.

But, as old men do, I am digressing."

That was the most optimistic scenario of many that came to my mind, whilst cogitating on what to write in that "Futures Studies" assignment.

James Howard Kunstler doesn't seem to be able to find one that is so optimistic for the USA, UK etc.

Since doing that thinking, I have been careful not to commit us to doing anything here that would make our lives difficult if the GBP went to 50 bahts to the GBP and inflation took prices up 30%.

Of course, my views are much coloured by a boyhood in which I saw abject poverty that had resulted from the slump in the early 1930s and from the warnings from my grandmothers of "Never a borrower nor a lender be".

('Credit crunch? <deleted>. It is a Debt and Gambling crunch.)