Thai Baht May Hit 30 To The Us Dollar

[Jai Dee]

Home construction sector experience mostly positive effects from Baht appreciation

Home construction contractors believe that the appreciation of the Thai Baht and reduction in interest rates is contributing to the growth home building businesses.

The President of the Home Builder Association, Mr. Sakda Kowisut (ศักดิ์ดา โควิสุทธิ์), said that the appreciation of the Thai Baht is causing both positive and negative effects on the real home building sector. Customers in the export sector may be reluctant to invest in home building or real estate during this period. Interior rate reductions by 0.25 percent and decrease in the cost of home building material are expected to benefit the home building sector, resulting in an annual growth rate of 10 percent.

Meanwhile the Director of the Real Estate Information Center, Mr. Samma Keetsin (สัมมา คีตสิน), revealed that 43,000 homes were constructed in 2006, of which 26,000 were by private construction contractors while 17,000 were by real estate companies.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 23 July 2007

[bkkandrew]

And still the dollar drops against the THB (amongst others)

Live rates at 2007.07.23 09:59:33 UTC

Notice: The THB rate shown below is the international rate. Rates used within Thailand may vary.

1.00 USD = 29.4494 THB

United States Dollars Thailand Baht

1 USD = 29.4494 THB 1 THB = 0.0339566 USD

Source: xe.com

[gampaan]

... Noooo. Not just yet....

[Maxi101]

OECD economist warns of global financial bubble

For years there were warnings about a housing bubble in the United States and parts of Australia. Now it has burst in the US, with devastating consequences.

Some argue that private equity buyouts are giving rise to a similar bubble in Australia.

But a senior official from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) argues these are all part of one giant bubble that threatens the world economy.

Former Reserve Bank economist Adrian Blundell-Wignall is deputy director of financial and enterprise affairs at the OECD.

He says there is a 'rolling bubble' of excess money sloshing around the globe, shifting from market to market.

It is being inflated by a series of distortions in the world economy, and unless they are dealt with, he predicts the bubble will eventually burst, with serious consequences.

Dr Blundell-Wignall is part of a diaspora of economists from the Reserve Bank of Australia now working overseas.

At the OECD in Paris in recent months, he has written a number of influential papers: one on the causes of the private equity boom, another prescient piece on hedge funds and their exposure to risky debt. At heart, he sees a common cause - too much money chasing too few assets.

"I think the big issue is there's just so much liquidity sloshing around the world economy, coming from a whole variety of sources," he said.

"Words like sovereign funds come to mind; our own Future Fund is like a sovereign fund.

"But when you compare that to sovereign funds like the Chinese foreign exchange reserves, other foreign exchange reserves, the reserves of the oil producing countries who are benefiting from the huge increase in the price of oil - all of this money together with very low interest rates in some parts of the world, zero interest rates in some countries, has meant that there's just a huge amount of liquidity sloshing around and trying to find a home."

Cheap credit

Dr Blundell-Wignall says excess liquidity is moving from market to market fuelled by cheap credit, driving up asset prices. He calls it a rolling bubble.

"When you have that sort of a situation, you get these rolling bubbles," he said.

"One of the first beneficiaries of the low global cost of capital was the mortgage boom and the housing boom in the US and other places. Of course, we're beginning to see the unwinding of that at the moment.

"We've seen it going into private equity, where we've had a huge boom. And as the yields have started to rise of recent times, some of those deals are beginning to be pulled. And I suspect that we may see a bit of a popping of that bubble as well.

"But that liquidity is still there - the mechanisms giving rise to that liquidity are still in place - and so what that means is that you get these rolling bubbles.

"Where does the money go next is the issue."

Dr Blundell-Wignall says the rolling bubbles are being inflated by a series of distortions in world markets, which have created a surplus of cheap credit.

"The key thing in globalised financial markets you really have to understand is there's no such thing as a domestic monetary policy that doesn't matter for the rest of the world," he said.

"Because if you're making interest rates very low in Japan, or making liquidity strongly available in places like China, then in globalised financial markets the mechanisms are there, through derivatives and swaps and so on and so forth, to basically take advantage of those low interest rates and low costs of borrowing around the world.

"This is where this big liquidity bubble is actually coming from."

Currency distortions

Among the distortions he identifies are negative real interest rates in Japan's and China's currency, which the Government has kept at an artificially low rate.

Manipulating the currency has allowed China to sell goods cheaply overseas and accumulate huge foreign currency reserves, which in turn have flowed back into the world's bond markets, driving down the cost of borrowing for business.

But Dr Blundell-Wignall says it is unsustainable.

"The Chinese currency is a really good example. I mean, those reserves now are over $1.3-$1.4 trillion," he said.

"Every time people try to invest in China - direct investment or whatever - that puts upwards pressure on the Chinese currency, and because the Chinese authorities intervene in the foreign exchange market, what that means is it's like printing money."

But the rolling bubble will not stop rolling yet.

"I think you have to say that as paradoxical as this sounds, that it hasn't been good enough to be really bad yet," he said.

"You can see that in things like, say, the mega cap stocks around the world, in America for example, the top 10 stocks in the US market - they've done virtually nothing in the last five years.

"But so far that liquidity hasn't made a really big impact on the very large cap stocks, and of course until it does, you know that it's probably not over.

"While liquidity's very strong, and before you see any sign of inflation picking up in the world economy - which always spells the death knell for markets, and you still haven't really seen any sign of that yet - it probably goes on for some time."

How long, no one knows. But unless the distortions inflating the rolling bubble are dealt with, Dr Blundell-Wignall fears it will end badly - and the bigger the bubble, the louder the bang.

By Stephen Long, ABC Australia

Underlines my opinion the cause of the unbalanced market is the cheap credits in Japan and China, thats why further investments from Japanese Companies are (at least for me) no hint for better times, compared to the cheap costs of money they could invest it everywhere.

[j_cheung]

Underlines my opinion the cause of the unbalanced market is the cheap credits in Japan and China, thats why further investments from Japanese Companies are (at least for me) no hint for better times, compared to the cheap costs of money they could invest it everywhere.

Quite possibly in the U.S. as well ... until the '08 elections are over and the new administration/congress reigns in the War in Iraq.

<edit: grammatical corrections by me>

Edited July 24, 2007 by j_cheung

[tropo]

I hadn't been following the exchange rates for a few days, but I got a shock when checking them out on Yahoo.

What are the banks giving today on cash transactions?

[LaoPo]

OECD economist warns of global financial bubble

"While liquidity's very strong, and before you see any sign of inflation picking up in the world economy - which always spells the death knell for markets, and you still haven't really seen any sign of that yet - it probably goes on for some time."

How long, no one knows. But unless the distortions inflating the rolling bubble are dealt with, Dr Blundell-Wignall fears it will end badly - and the bigger the bubble, the louder the bang.

By Stephen Long, ABC Australia

Underlines my opinion the cause of the unbalanced market is the cheap credits in Japan and China, thats why further investments from Japanese Companies are (at least for me) no hint for better times, compared to the cheap costs of money they could invest it everywhere.

I agree there are some worrying signs, not just in Thailand but world wide.

Personally I see the world economy and it's performance since, let's say, the last hundred years, in a much broader perspective and positive.

There have been many wars, crashes (Wall Street end '20's last century), inventions like cars, telegraph, telephone, (even the long forgotten Telex) GPS, atomic weapons, planes, Internet, Mobile/cell phones etc. etc. but the world always survived and improved itself...MEGA!

The human race and it's -growing- intelligence is very flexible and adaptable to the ever changing circumstances, even BIG financial & economical bubbles.

Human beings are very creative also and the financial & economical world will survive again, not without personal pain and losses, but we will.

Unless our beloved small world is wiped out off the universe....by an ugly devastating atomic war.

It's up to ourselves and in the meantime:

Keep smiling

ps: One advise: always stay -partly- liquid in the country you're living in (especially Thailand) and save money, rather than spending it.

People with most cash at hand survive fastest in harsh times.

Just IMHO.

LaoPo

[bruceboy]

I've got some good American friends who are suffering because of this.

[highdiver]

OECD economist warns of global financial bubble

"While liquidity's very strong, and before you see any sign of inflation picking up in the world economy - which always spells the death knell for markets, and you still haven't really seen any sign of that yet - it probably goes on for some time."

How long, no one knows. But unless the distortions inflating the rolling bubble are dealt with, Dr Blundell-Wignall fears it will end badly - and the bigger the bubble, the louder the bang.

By Stephen Long, ABC Australia

Underlines my opinion the cause of the unbalanced market is the cheap credits in Japan and China, thats why further investments from Japanese Companies are (at least for me) no hint for better times, compared to the cheap costs of money they could invest it everywhere.

I agree there are some worrying signs, not just in Thailand but world wide.

Personally I see the world economy and it's performance since, let's say, the last hundred years, in a much broader perspective and positive.

There have been many wars, crashes (Wall Street end '20's last century), inventions like cars, telegraph, telephone, (even the long forgotten Telex) GPS, atomic weapons, planes, Internet, Mobile/cell phones etc. etc. but the world always survived and improved itself...MEGA!

The human race and it's -growing- intelligence is very flexible and adaptable to the ever changing circumstances, even BIG financial & economical bubbles.

Human beings are very creative also and the financial & economical world will survive again, not without personal pain and losses, but we will.

Unless our beloved small world is wiped out off the universe....by an ugly devastating atomic war.

It's up to ourselves and in the meantime:

Keep smiling

ps: One advise: always stay -partly- liquid in the country you're living in (especially Thailand) and save money, rather than spending it.

People with most cash at hand survive fastest in harsh times.

Just IMHO.

LaoPo

I totlay 100% agree with you.

realy i do..allways keep 25% of assets in hard local cash.

and i hope you will agree with me that when this "big world crash" happens. where would you rather be in a western country or in thailand

[koheesti]

I agree there are some worrying signs, not just in Thailand but world wide.

Personally I see the world economy and it's performance since, let's say, the last hundred years, in a much broader perspective and positive.

There have been many wars, crashes (Wall Street end '20's last century), inventions like cars, telegraph, telephone, (even the long forgotten Telex) GPS, atomic weapons, planes, Internet, Mobile/cell phones etc. etc. but the world always survived and improved itself...MEGA!

The human race and it's -growing- intelligence is very flexible and adaptable to the ever changing circumstances, even BIG financial & economical bubbles.

Human beings are very creative also and the financial & economical world will survive again, not without personal pain and losses, but we will.

Unless our beloved small world is wiped out off the universe....by an ugly devastating atomic war.

It's up to ourselves and in the meantime:

Keep smiling

ps: One advise: always stay -partly- liquid in the country you're living in (especially Thailand) and save money, rather than spending it.

People with most cash at hand survive fastest in harsh times.

Just IMHO.

LaoPo

I agree except for the last sentence. Up in my part of the world, during the Russian crash of 1998 the ruble quickly lost value and people rushed out to spend their cash on ("invest in") things like electronics and home appliances before it was totally worthless. Then at least they would have something of value later.

[tropo]

I agree there are some worrying signs, not just in Thailand but world wide.

Talk about an understatement.

This is a Thai forum discussing Thai economics and my US dollars have lost 23% of their value since February last year. (That equates to nearly $200 per month rent increase for me)...There's nothing positive about that, and coupled with their more and more restrictive visa policies making it more difficult and expensive to stay here, all the benefits of living in Thailand are fast being eroded away.

The only way I can stay positive about all this is to keep saying to myself that Thailand (Pattaya) is still good value relatively speaking, but I was saying that when the baht dropped to the 35 level, but now we're facing sub-30.

The best way to avert disaster when the "big crash" happens is not to keep cash at all. That can become worthless over night. It's far better to buy productive farm land to keep food in the pantry. If you feel the need to keep "hard local cash" on hand it's better to convert it to gold. It's definitely one of the big advantages of living in Thailand i.e. The ease (cheap) of buying and selling gold....and probably one of the reasons that Thais survived the last crash so well.

Edited July 24, 2007 by tropo

[LaoPo]

I agree there are some worrying signs, not just in Thailand but world wide.

Personally I see the world economy and it's performance since, let's say, the last hundred years, in a much broader perspective and positive.

There have been many wars, crashes (Wall Street end '20's last century), inventions like cars, telegraph, telephone, (even the long forgotten Telex) GPS, atomic weapons, planes, Internet, Mobile/cell phones etc. etc. but the world always survived and improved itself...MEGA!

The human race and it's -growing- intelligence is very flexible and adaptable to the ever changing circumstances, even BIG financial & economical bubbles.

Human beings are very creative also and the financial & economical world will survive again, not without personal pain and losses, but we will.

Unless our beloved small world is wiped out off the universe....by an ugly devastating atomic war.

It's up to ourselves and in the meantime:

Keep smiling

ps: One advise: always stay -partly- liquid in the country you're living in (especially Thailand) and save money, rather than spending it.

People with most cash at hand survive fastest in harsh times.

Just IMHO.

LaoPo

I agree except for the last sentence. Up in my part of the world, during the Russian crash of 1998 the ruble quickly lost value and people rushed out to spend their cash on ("invest in") things like electronics and home appliances before it was totally worthless. Then at least they would have something of value later.

Agreed, but the smart people in your area had already US$'s.

I was talking 'cash' in the form of hard currencies, not risky Mickey Mouse currencies.

And, to answer to another remark about losing in %'s of the US$ value.

That's just related to people living outside the US or depending on $ income, especially also in Thailand; 98% of the US population of 300 Million never learn about a declining $; they are not interested; just in prices for Gas and their shoppings...................AND the rising Mortgage* rates...

The latter will be the accelerator for a black period in the US and thus Thailand + the rest of the world !

* From an investment letter, today:

"One problem is the large number of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) resetting next year... In 2008, "nearly $700 billion in ARMs are subject to reset, nearly three-quarters of which are subprimes."

$700 Billion in ARMs....

And exactly THAT is also Thai Baht/US $ related.

Tropo: I do not agree. Only a very few people will be able to have/buy productive farm land. The vast majority doesn't even know the difference between a sheep or pig so to speak.

In urban cities it's better to have cash.

But I do agree with buying gold (whether paper- physical or stocks in gold) in an upcoming crash; and, in harsh times you need cash to buy gold, not pigs.

LaoPo

[midas]

On the Australian channel ABC news this evening it said the SET climbed a further

2 % today because of measures which the Thai government had taken to curb

any further increases in the Baht ? what have they done other than reducing

the interest rates last week ?

[Mid]

had enough trouble posting this article in the crisis thread so I'll just give you the link ,

the measures are detailed here

Thailand relaxes currency rules to curb baht

[LaoPo]

On the Australian channel ABC news this evening it said the SET climbed a further

2 % today because of measures which the Thai government had taken to curb

any further increases in the Baht ? what have they done other than reducing

the interest rates last week ?

It was 2,12% actually but the measures by the BOT or government, related to the Baht, have little to none to do with the rise on the stock market.

Foreign- as well as local Institutional [stock] investors look at technical data of the stocks themselves and the fact that the SET Index gained already 30% since the beginning of this year shows that.

The index is likely to rise a bit further since quite a few listed stocks are still behind regional/world P/E's in similar industries but once the index [and stocks] reach certain limits, the investors will walk away.

But, that's nothing new or special; it's done worldwide.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

On the Australian channel ABC news this evening it said the SET climbed a further

2 % today because of measures which the Thai government had taken to curb

any further increases in the Baht ? what have they done other than reducing

the interest rates last week ?

It was 2,12% actually but the measures by the BOT or government, related to the Baht, have little to none to do with the rise on the stock market.

Foreign- as well as local Institutional [stock] investors look at technical data of the stocks themselves and the fact that the SET Index gained already 30% since the beginning of this year shows that.

The index is likely to rise a bit further since quite a few listed stocks are still behind regional/world P/E's in similar industries but once the index [and stocks] reach certain limits, the investors will walk away.

But, that's nothing new or special; it's done worldwide.

LaoPo

I'm not so sure anymore about the bold sentence, above....why?

Tuesday July 24:

* The dollar declined to a record low against the Euro

* European stock markets declined quite a lot; DAX/Germany - FTSE/London: most stocks declined

* Asian stocks fell in the US

* DOW JONES, NASDAQ + S&P500 tumbled the most in 4 months; (concerns about spreading housing crisis)

* US subprime mortgages is spreading, slowing U.S. growth.

We've to wait what the Asian stock markets, including the Thailand SET, will do when they open in a few hours, Wednesday 25th July, but it doesn't look too good.

LaoPo

Edited July 24, 2007 by LaoPo

[highdiver]

more then the baht getting stronger. ts the dollar that is getting weaker.

and this raises a question.

if oil and refined products are globaly traded in USD then the local prices here and in Eurpoe should have droped.

why are gasoline prices still high?

why are airline companies that inroduced a fuel surcharge and our now buying full at cheaper prices not dropping prices?

[gburns57au]

From News.com this morning Oz time

From correspondents in New York

July 25, 2007 06:18am

US stocks went into a tailspin overnight as disappointing news on the corporate earnings front and heightened fears about the housing slump prompted investors to retrench.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 218.01 points (1.56 per cent) to 13,725.41 and the Nasdaq slid 50.71 points (1.88 per cent) to 2639.87 at the closing bell.

The broad-market Standard & Poor's 500 index retreated 29.77 points (1.93 per cent) to 1511.80.

In the absence of economic data overnight, the markets focused on corporate earnings, including some disappointments from high-profile names including American Express, DuPont, Countrywide Financial and Texas Instruments.

Analysts said weak results at mortgage giant Countrywide reminded investors of the mushrooming problems from the crisis in subprime real estate.

"Following the company's slashed forecasts and nightmarish conference call, investor confidence is dissipating regarding mortgage banking earnings," said Patrick O'Hare at Briefing.com.

"The call only further magnified concerns that subprime defaults could be spreading to the prime market, in addition to the fact that Countrywide appears to be signaling there is no relief in sight for the broader housing market."

Apple plunges

On the Nasdaq, Apple shares fell 2.7 per cent, making the stock the biggest drag on the Nasdaq composite index.

"You had several disappointments coming into today's session: DuPont, Texas Instruments and Countrywide Financial. That is the primary driver of today's weakness,'' said Michael Malone, trading analyst at Cowen & Co. in New York.

"Certainly housing continues to be a concern and to weaken relative to expectations.''

[Martin]

Holding "hard local cash" seems to be good advice where money that you may need to spend in the next couple of months is concerned.

But if I am expecting to hold it longer, I go to the gold shop and buy the appropriate number of those heavy little bars and put them in our safe deposit.

I agree that productive land has most to be said for it. But my wife and I have enough of that for our needs, and for the needs of the next generation.

Since the next generation don't want to be farmers, there isn't much point in us buying more land to 'put by'. Enough that they can have enough to eat from half the crop (with the other half going to whoever they get to do the actual farming operations) is as much as it seems sensible to have available to leave them.

[tropo]

more then the baht getting stronger. ts the dollar that is getting weaker.

This seems to be the conventional wisdom/excuse/reason given for the current trend and motivated me to undertake a little research to see exactly how other currencies have fared against the Thai Baht over the last year.

This is what I found.

(Note: These figures are approximate. I've used one-year currency pair graphs from Yahoo to arrive at these figures. I apologize if I've left out any member's home currency)

USD - THB: drop = 21%

EUR - THB: drop = 15%

GBP - THB: drop = 15.6%

AUD - THB: drop = 12% (Australia)

CAD - THB: drop = 18% (Canada)

PHP - THB: drop = 13.5% (Philippines)

JPY - THB: drop = 25.75% (Japan)

SGD - THB: drop = 17.9% (Singapore)

CHF - THB: drop = 19.4% (Switzerland)

TWD - THB: drop = 23.7% (Taiwan)

ZAR - THB: drop = 22.5% (South Africa)

MYR - THB: drop = 15% (Malaysia)

NOK - THB: drop = 15.5% (Norway)

SAR - THB: drop = 20.8% (Saudi Arabia)

HKD - THB: drop = 22.5% (Hong Kong)

KRW - THB: drop = 18.75% (Korea)

CHY - THB: drop = 18.75% (China)

INR - THB: drop = 10.8% (India)

AED - THB: drop = 22.1% (UAE)

BRL - THB: drop = 10% (Brazil)

HUF - THB: drop = 7% (Hungary)

The winner is NZD (New Zealand) with about a 1% gain.

The conclusion is obvious. There's more to this than a declining US dollar.

I find it puzzling how the Thai Baht manages to outperform most other world currencies while Thailand is in the midst of a military dictatorship. Thailand seems to do everything it can to destroy its economy yet its currency strengthens beyond compare.

Edited July 25, 2007 by tropo

[tropo]

Tropo: I do not agree. Only a very few people will be able to have/buy productive farm land. The vast majority doesn't even know the difference between a sheep or pig so to speak.

In urban cities it's better to have cash.

But I do agree with buying gold (whether paper- physical or stocks in gold) in an upcoming crash; and, in harsh times you need cash to buy gold, not pigs.

LaoPo

In the case of a catastrophic colapse of world economies, in some areas food could become a very useful method of trade. Pigs will be more valuable than gold (which is not too edible). Gold only holds value if people want it and in reality it's not too useful in its own right...whereas pigs, rice etc are.

I'm really talking about getting away from major world powers and setting up farms (rice fields in particular) in 3rd world countries. They are still very cheap. Of course you need to be happily married to a citizen over here in order to make it work.

For example, in the Philippines I can buy good rice fields for not much over US $3000 per hectare. One hectare can produce over 4 tonne (4,000 kg) of rice (ready to eat) from 2 harvests per year. That's a gross return of over 50% of the purchase price in ONE YEAR.

Rice in SE Asian countries IS local currency.

Edited July 25, 2007 by tropo

[rayw]

It's not only the dollar that's losing steam against the baht. The pound is at 61 to the baht and the Euro is at 41. It wasn't long ago that the Euro was up around 50 to the baht and the pound was near 70. Those are mighty big dips, in my humble opinion.

No, onshore the Euro is IRO 45 and GBP 67. The Euro has not really been highr in Baht terms than its value today... Historical data is difficult to compare, due to the offshore/onshore disparity caused by the currency controls imposed by BOT 6-months ago..

Surely the first priority of the BOT is to resind and kick this comparison into touch and have one currency valuation and then perhaps some sensible levels will come back into the equasion, along with the true worth of the Baht..................

Otherwise Thailand will suffer big time in the not to distant future and chaos will continue to prevail.

marshbags

As I keep saying the onshore rate here is nearer the truth and compares similarly with the London Forex money market rates quoted in the FT (see Bid and Offer rates). Even offshore quoted rates the middle rate remains basically the same as everywhere else but these are tied to western rip off bank customer rates which are just criminal and you should NEVER use them unless totally unavoidable. Just look at the offshore rate for buying your Baht back for sterling or US dollars and then tell me they are not ripping you off. In other words the rates are so bad because they are making a huge criminal profit on their currency trading relying on the ignorance of many of their customers. Anyway TV is a great board so no need for any of us here to be in ignorance of the facts. Please read my posts they are correct information and the facts.

Edited July 25, 2007 by rayw

[bkkandrew]

As I keep saying the onshore rate here is nearer the truth

Both are "true" rates. One is for Onshore, one for offshore. The difference being due to the BOT currency controls.

Keeping saying something that is incorrect does not make it correct, just invites ridicule...

[bkkandrew]

Please read my posts they are correct information and the facts.

Repeating this will not make it so either...

[bkkandrew]

Rice in SE Asian countries IS local currency.

Quite so.

[rayw]

As a direct piece of advice nobody here with even a modicum of common sense would use an offshore rate to buy or sell their required Thai Baht whether for a holiday or buying a property or car. So the on shore rate is really what we all should be using and sod the western banks and their fraudulent ways. I have only a small pension each month to convert so it effects me very little but I do pay attention to what is happening, even with interest rates and the related forward currency markets. What I state is to help others not to knock any country or people just to try and be helpful. As I said up to every one if they want to listen or ignore it but I assure you I only quote what I see and know are the facts. Do what you want with it I am done with it, hope it has not been a waste of time and effort for most of the sensible guys here.

You really have a bee in your bonnet about those Western Banks! Guess you were sacked from the one in London. I can see why!

I wonder if you include Nationwide in your sideswipe, as they often offer an ATM rate on par with Super Rich!

You are incredibly rude and no I am not going to flame or rant at you back at all as I will not stoop to those levels, I detest flaming. How offensive your comments are, you do not know me and yet you make wild and wrong assumptions and post them here publicly too, not nice at all and unnecessary. For information, no I was not sacked on the contrary I was one of my particular London city banks youngest managers but that was 35 years ago and is nothing to do with this discussion. BTW in those days western banks were not the criminal rip off merchants they are in this modern rip off western society where the poor get poorer and the rich get richer (no I am neither rich nor poor before you point a finger again). Oh and for the record I have no personal interest in Super Rich as I do not exchange bank notes ever these days as I am no longer a tourist here so I only use TT rates with my Thai bank. So why would I even want to know about Super Rich who seem a pretty good and fair trader I must agree and you were completely right about them. Yes I DID say I knew about the NationWide ATM deal and for a UK package it is good but do not use it myself so not up to date with their current trading, but it is always worse than using onshore TT rates here in Thailand (unless for small amounts) so not that interested personally. Anyway there are folk here who do not know about the rate differences offshore and onshore and why should they, so it is worth pointing this out regularly for new members too as that IS helpful. No bee in my bonnet as most folk now realise that the western banks are verging on criminality with their fraudulent levels of trading profits and all work together like a cartel, so just quoting pretty well known facts there too.

Anyway back to what is important and that is comparing currency rates. Just go here to the FT site http://specials.ft.com/siterefresh/stats/p...d/PSP240707.pdf for sterling rates to most currencies on 24th July and explain that one away as these are NOT onshore Thai rates they are the TRUE international mid point rates quoted in London, one of the main currency dealing centres in the World. The Thai Banks mid rate yesterday was about 69.315 Baht per £ compares to the FT quoted mid rate of 69.314. Interestingly the 3 month forward rates indicate an expected strengthening of the Baht, although you have to realise that these forward rates are geared primarily to interest rate differences between the two currencies. The rates you get off of xe.com are I am certain selling rates for Thai Baht and with a big buying/selling spread too, if not it would be easy to make a killing and I assure you first hand that Pro Forex dealers work very hard to make lots of small profits, killings are rare luck and the domain of gamblers. Remember there are more gamblers who lose than win in most markets. The rates here in Thailand are the same as the FT mid rates with just about 2.5% - 3% spread in buying and selling of Bank Notes and half of that for TT rates.

Obviously one of us is wrong over these mid rates and it is important else fol get the wrong end of the stick and think things are worse or better than they really are. I am sure there is nothing wrong with what I have stated here and the FT web site page mentioned above bears this out, so come on no flaming with folk just because they disagree with you, just adult discussion please to find out why the anomaly we have here. Just please try and get from xe.com if you can their buying AND selling rates for Bank Notes and/or TT then we can compare like with like and clarify and establish just what their mid point rate is, this will be productive and intelligent for sure. As I said to you before I am only trying to help not to rant or flame but have to point the finger at Bush and his extreme right wing policies as the main cause in the US$ collapse. We saw the same in the UK in the 80's for similar reasons and remember that well too. So for now just quote the true international mid point rates from the London FT if you are giving offshore rates.

Edited July 25, 2007 by rayw

[rayw]

????

Edited July 25, 2007 by rayw

[tropo]

As I said to you before I am only trying to help not to rant or flame but have to point the finger at Bush and his extreme right wing policies as the main cause in the US$ collapse.

It's a bit harsh talking about a US$ collapse. Instead of fighting, how about checking how all the other major currencies fared against the Thai Baht in the last year.

What you term a collapse is nothing more than a fluctuation. Using the Australian dollar as an example. In about 15 years I've seen it go from 80's (i.e. 0.8 AUD to 1 $US) to under 50 and now back to 80's again. When did which currency collapse?...it's only relative.

Forget the US dollar, we should be investigating why the baht is flying against all odds..

Edited July 25, 2007 by tropo

[marshbags]

Having watched the UK. bank who remit my pension sending less and watched the the actual exchange rate go down i just accepted it as kosher.

However this months was well down and i thought i,d do a physical conversion after getting the latest transfer.

It worked out at 61.8200000000 to the pound sterling.

My local bank manager and myself did a trace to check who was getting the exchange rates wrong.

It was just under 69 to the pound by the way and it was 45 pounds light at this rate after taking bank charges into acc.

The Thai bank charges amounted to under 200 baht and was all that was deducted in Thailand.

I have all the paperwork to prove it, thanks to the imput of my local bank manager.

I contacted my company who in turn contacted the transferring bank in the U.K.

They said the exchange i got which was determined in the U.K. using offshore rates was correct and as far as they where concerned nothing was wrong.

I might add that having been made aware of such a discrepancy in this transfer i,ve researched the last 4 months and they have underpaid me consistently over this period and although on a lesser scale it goes way back.

They were supposed to be paying me in the most favourable T.T. rates when i first got my pension ( Their words )and i took it as read.

When i asked about them sticking to this and making the diferences up they said if i cannot produce in writting the above as far as they are concerned that is the end of it.

Anyway R.W,s observations as far as my situation is concerned, fit in with my experience in factual terms and i go along with his post accordingly.

Nice one R.W.

As a result of my experience i am now being paid in Sterling as from August at my request via my co. and although i will pay extra to convert at the Thai end i will still have more baht, but more importantly i won,t be getting conned by the U.K. bank anymore.

You live and learn and as i am not on a shoe string it didn,t spoil my living standards i,m pleased to say.

Many out there are not so lucky and i would advise everyone to double check what they are paid along with the options of possibly getting paid in Sterling if you are from the U.K. and having it converted by the receiving bank at the Thai end.

Enquire about the costs to do this and decide what is best for you and never mind the so called experts who may say otherwise.

I mean 2.05 to the pound and the baht still out performs us in dollar terms....&lt;deleted&gt; is going on in reality terms, economy wise.

One rate will do nicely and fuff the onshore / offshore comparisons which at the end of day only suit certain institutions and certainly do not paint a true scenario of the Thai economy, both in Thailand and overseas.

IMHO of course.

marshbags

Edited July 25, 2007 by marshbags

[Mid]

Markets shrug off new measures to curb baht

General news >> Wednesday July 25, 2007

WICHIT CHANTANUSORNSIRI & PARISTA YUTHAMANOP

The financial markets shrugged off the government's new measures to ease the upward pressure on the baht yesterday, with the currency gaining slightly against the US dollar on the release of strong June export figures and foreign inflows into the stock market.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand index rose 2.12% to a 10-year high as investors breathed a sigh of relief that the currency measures appeared to impose no restrictions on foreign inflows.

The Post Publishing Public Co