Thai Baht May Hit 30 To The Us Dollar

[ray08]

.

Your post is spot on madi! The Thai economy had better get prepared for a big hit, and as you so astutely pointed out it will be the Thai lower classes (both urban and rural) who will feel the brunt of the downturn and the inflation. The baht is temporarily being proped up (vs. the Dollar) by the BOT, but this cannot go on indefinately. I would expect that the baht will gravitate back to the 41-43/Dollar range by the end of 2009 or early 2010, as this is the average price range since the 97 crisis. The primary reason that the baht went from 42 to 31 over the last couple of years was the overseas investment Dollars pouring into the SET and real estate developemnet in Thailand, currently those foreign funds are liquidating their holdings in the SET and overseas $ are no longer pouring into Thailand for real estate developments. The BOT realises this problem, and have been spending their Dollar reserves to buy up baht as those foriegn funds liqiudate their baht investment holdings. My hopes and prayers are with the Thai people especially those in the cities and the countryside who are just barely getting by.

A thb in the 41-43 will help the economy ,increase exports as costs will be competitive and increase tourism ,making thailand a low cost destination,those 2 factors alone will help employment and put more money into the economy,

Where is the big hit coming from if the thai baht weakens ?

[steverino]

The pound keeps falling against the Baht...below 60 today at Bangkok Bank and XE.com. Converting our pounds has never been so dear....well, not recently anyway.

[khunjamespittman]

I only said today that the baht went below 30, because a post in this thread said so. I never got fewer than 31.25 baht for a dollar. Other folks on ThaiVisa have talked about a return to the glory, fake days of the fixed rate of 25:1, Only the perennial rose-colored glasses worn by britmaveric have predicted a return to the nearly equally fake days of 40 and above.

It seems amazing that a 40% drop in the Dow-Jones stock market is joined by a strong dollar. Flight to quality.

I see many posts here using incorrect Baht exchange rates. This leads to much anxiety and misunderstanding. Everyone please try to use current information and not just quote others. I am not an expert on currency exchange rates but I don't believe a fall in the Dow is a factor. It seems far more likely that the improvement in the Dollar is directly related to the reduction in the price of oil caused by reduced consumption, thus requiring a much lower outlay of Dollars. That would be exactly what is expected.

[unforgiven]

Just thought I would update this place to show how completely wrong some of your predictions were.

No

The US dollar did not go to 30 against the baht.

It is in fact near 35 and getting stronger. This is despite the meltdown in America which is likely going to get much worse. For those who got it wrong on the currency, it is because as screwed up as the USA is, it is still considered by big money to be more secure than the rest of the world. So we get the flight toward the US dollar. It is all relative you know. All of the economies will tank so which place is safest for your currency? People move their money based on this.

Remember those saying all was fine and the baht was going to 30 against the dollar?

Thailand is NOT in a good economic way despite the denial we hear from the government. What do we expect it to say? You think they will tell us all is going down hard? it is far more likely that you will see the Baht at 40 to the US dollar than at 30 to the US dollar in the next 6 months.

NO--Europe and the world economies are NOT DE-coupled from the US economy.

European economies are all falling into recession now. Its banks are also in deep trouble. The stock market has crashed in most of Europe and Asia. China has seen its market collapse. Maybe the EU will collapse if put under severe economic pressure but oh well--who cares.

Funny how some of you likely lived here in Thailand when Indonesia collapsed and took Thailand down with it and now you thought the collapse of America and Europe economical would not hurt Thailand.

That was just wishful and childish thinking on your parts.

Thailand's economy will crash.

Its poor will suffer.

Its government will remain very very unstable.

Come on now--Many of you do not care ---most of you living here. You live off the cheap here and like lower prices.

Be honest.

Cheaper beer and cheaper company is all you care about.

The Thai people can go hungry in the countryside and you never even see them. You stuff your mouths and drink cheap beer while acting like clowns.

You are like the drunken reporters in the Movie-The Year of Living Dangerously--. You just laugh and use here.

It is a sad live for them but sad for you too if you do not care.

Oh well

Most of you are USERS.

You got used back in your home nations and then you came here to use others.

So it goes.

I hope for better for all Thai people.

Thailand is for Thais. They will solve problems or not solve them.

That much is true.

They do not need nor do they want advice from ignorant people from other nations.

I am not picking on you here who agree with me so sorry if it seems I am.

Lots of us non-Thai do see it his way.

would you like a little cheese with that whine?

[nuffsaid5805]

Its at 30.80 in Pattaya @ kbank now so i guess this article was right.

[Abrak]

Your post is spot on madi! The Thai economy had better get prepared for a big hit, and as you so astutely pointed out it will be the Thai lower classes (both urban and rural) who will feel the brunt of the downturn and the inflation. The baht is temporarily being proped up (vs. the Dollar) by the BOT, but this cannot go on indefinately. I would expect that the baht will gravitate back to the 41-43/Dollar range by the end of 2009 or early 2010, as this is the average price range since the 97 crisis. The primary reason that the baht went from 42 to 31 over the last couple of years was the overseas investment Dollars pouring into the SET and real estate developemnet in Thailand, currently those foreign funds are liquidating their holdings in the SET and overseas $ are no longer pouring into Thailand for real estate developments. The BOT realises this problem, and have been spending their Dollar reserves to buy up baht as those foriegn funds liqiudate their baht investment holdings. My hopes and prayers are with the Thai people especially those in the cities and the countryside who are just barely getting by.

To be honest I cannot work out who is MAD here or who is incredibly SCARCASTIC or MAD and SARCASTIC.

Still I would point out that those who think they are being funny by their baht is really Bt35 that the BoT is spending their reserves on propping up the baht, foreign investors are liquidating holdings in the SET to unwind their carry trade etc, are really establishing a humor level of a twelve year old rather than anything else.

You should distinguish between funny ha ha and funny peculiar.

[Naam]

"Still I would point out that those who think they are being funny by their baht is really Bt35 that the BoT is spending their reserves on propping up the baht, foreign investors are liquidating holdings in the SET to unwind their carry trade etc, are really establishing a humor level of a twelve year old rather than anything else."

Abrak,

why waste time to discuss the colours of a beautiful sunset with blind people?

[SamritT]

It is about time to go on a holiday in the USA. But I don't think I will get a US visa. I heard that it is harder than doing the University Entrance Exams. My English is not very good, how can I do the interview?

[mommysboy]

Your post is spot on madi! The Thai economy had better get prepared for a big hit, and as you so astutely pointed out it will be the Thai lower classes (both urban and rural) who will feel the brunt of the downturn and the inflation. The baht is temporarily being proped up (vs. the Dollar) by the BOT, but this cannot go on indefinately. I would expect that the baht will gravitate back to the 41-43/Dollar range by the end of 2009 or early 2010, as this is the average price range since the 97 crisis. The primary reason that the baht went from 42 to 31 over the last couple of years was the overseas investment Dollars pouring into the SET and real estate developemnet in Thailand, currently those foreign funds are liquidating their holdings in the SET and overseas $ are no longer pouring into Thailand for real estate developments. The BOT realises this problem, and have been spending their Dollar reserves to buy up baht as those foriegn funds liqiudate their baht investment holdings. My hopes and prayers are with the Thai people especially those in the cities and the countryside who are just barely getting by.

To be honest I cannot work out who is MAD here or who is incredibly SCARCASTIC or MAD and SARCASTIC.

Still I would point out that those who think they are being funny by their baht is really Bt35 that the BoT is spending their reserves on propping up the baht, foreign investors are liquidating holdings in the SET to unwind their carry trade etc, are really establishing a humor level of a twelve year old rather than anything else.

You should distinguish between funny ha ha and funny peculiar.

I'd guess you are right Abrak. After all why would an economist want to bolster the baht, exporting nations really need a competitive currency, especially right now. So my thought is it really is a market distortion created by a flow in of investment. Quite why someone would want to invest here is another matter!

The only thing I'd say is that this country defies ordinary logic. Just supposing that despite all pretences it is essentially being run by the army, and they just want to walk around with pride about 25 to the dollar, just as surely as it is one of their tin medals. It sounds a crazy notion, but anyone with knowledge of living here knows it is not, and there is a sense in which 25 to the dollar is regarded as normal.

One thing clearly revealed itself during the riots, this is a managed currency. I think the baht is fair value unfortunately, but don't take anything for granted with this country and certainly this is just a short term view.

[ScubaBuddha]

The baht fell to 30 to the dollar today, so I guess the thread heading is true..again.

[LaoPo]

The baht fell to 30 to the dollar today, so I guess the thread heading is true..again.

Yes.... 3 years and 4 months after the topic started..

LaoPo