Expats seeking a new life face challenges with stricter banking and taxation rules being pushed

[hotandsticky]

2 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

The RD could cope with as many tax returns as the public wanted to throw at them, as long as they have the disk space, given that it's all online these days.

It's not going to happen for most expats (who are not already required to be in the system).

[linksman00]

On 10/14/2023 at 9:10 PM, Mike Lister said:

What nonsense! A Western expat population of circa 150k kept a population of 70 million afloat during covid, I really dont think so!! You overestimate the expat worth by a substantial margin.

Mike,        While you are correct that most expats feel that their effect on the Thai economy is far greater than it really is, you grossly underestimate the number of foreign expats in the Kingdom as well as their impact, especially in certain locations. The actual number of foreign expatriates in Thailand is currently between 3.5 - 4 million, the most accurate count seems to be 3.65 million, and given that number makes up over 5% of the total population of Thailand, it would make quite a dent all on its own if this new taxation scheme is not fully delineated and rolled out properly. Furthermore, a substantial percentage of that 3.65 million figure, bring into the Kingdom, and spend, 3-4 times what the average Thai citizen spends, so the multiplier effect of that alone could impact the Thai economy by 15 to 20%.  Certain areas would be completely devastated, like Phuket, Koh Samui, Pattaya/Jomtien, and areas further down the eastern seaboard, as well as Chiang Mai, Hua Hin, and certain districts in and around Bangkok. Bangkok itself is a strong and vibrant city, and one of S.E. Asia's largest banking centers, however given the multiplier effect in the aforementioned outlying areas that would be devastated, with the amount of small businesses that would go under, in addition to billions in construction loans that would not be able to be paid back, the multiplier effect overall could be somewhat devastating, especially in an environment where we are entering a worldwide recession next year.  My hunch is that this vague new tax policy, is the result of a bureaucrat trying to win favor with the new administration, and it is something that will fall by the wayside, just as other very poorly thought out policies have in the past in Thailand. The idea of taxing expat funds being brought into Thailand, and then spent within Thailand, is so insanely counterproductive that it will never come to pass.

[Mike Lister]

3 minutes ago, linksman00 said:

Mike,        While you are correct that most expats feel that their effect on the Thai economy is far greater than it really is, you grossly underestimate the number of foreign expats in the Kingdom as well as their impact, especially in certain locations. The actual number of foreign expatriates in Thailand is currently between 3.5 - 4 million, the most accurate count seems to be 3.65 million, and given that number makes up over 5% of the total population of Thailand, it would make quite a dent all on its own if this new taxation scheme is not fully delineated and rolled out properly. Furthermore, a substantial percentage of that 3.65 million figure, bring into the Kingdom, and spend, 3-4 times what the average Thai citizen spends, so the multiplier effect of that alone could impact the Thai economy by 15 to 20%.  Certain areas would be completely devastated, like Phuket, Koh Samui, Pattaya/Jomtien, and areas further down the eastern seaboard, as well as Chiang Mai, Hua Hin, and certain districts in and around Bangkok. Bangkok itself is a strong and vibrant city, and one of S.E. Asia's largest banking centers, however given the multiplier effect in the aforementioned outlying areas that would be devastated, with the amount of small businesses that would go under, in addition to billions in construction loans that would not be able to be paid back, the multiplier effect overall could be somewhat devastating, especially in an environment where we are entering a worldwide recession next year.  My hunch is that this vague new tax policy, is the result of a bureaucrat trying to win favor with the new administration, and it is something that will fall by the wayside, just as other very poorly thought out policies have in the past in Thailand. The idea of taxing expat funds being brought into Thailand, and then spent within Thailand, is so insanely counterproductive that it will never come to pass.

Having been through this debate several times over the past twenty years I've read most of the arguments previously. Yes it is true that there are about 4 million foreigners living in Thailand but it is not true to suggest they are all expats in the sense that a Westerner might understand the term. Most of the 4 million are legal and illegal Chinese, Cambodians, Laos and Burmese who for the purposes of economic impact assessment must be separated from western expats. Western expats historically are those here on work permits or retired here. They either receive overseas income every month, something the majority of the 4 million do not, or they earn in the upper income levels. If the 4 million (minus the 150k) were to evacuate the country, the economic impact would be substantial because much of the labor force would have disappeared and some industries would grind to a halt, like construction and fisheries. But the impact resulting from cash/income withdrawal is far less likely to have impact since the vast majority of the 4 million are exporters of wealth back to their families, rather than wealth importers.

 

 

[Mike Lister]

34 minutes ago, linksman00 said:

Mike,        While you are correct that most expats feel that their effect on the Thai economy is far greater than it really is, you grossly underestimate the number of foreign expats in the Kingdom as well as their impact, especially in certain locations. The actual number of foreign expatriates in Thailand is currently between 3.5 - 4 million, the most accurate count seems to be 3.65 million, and given that number makes up over 5% of the total population of Thailand, it would make quite a dent all on its own if this new taxation scheme is not fully delineated and rolled out properly. Furthermore, a substantial percentage of that 3.65 million figure, bring into the Kingdom, and spend, 3-4 times what the average Thai citizen spends, so the multiplier effect of that alone could impact the Thai economy by 15 to 20%.  Certain areas would be completely devastated, like Phuket, Koh Samui, Pattaya/Jomtien, and areas further down the eastern seaboard, as well as Chiang Mai, Hua Hin, and certain districts in and around Bangkok. Bangkok itself is a strong and vibrant city, and one of S.E. Asia's largest banking centers, however given the multiplier effect in the aforementioned outlying areas that would be devastated, with the amount of small businesses that would go under, in addition to billions in construction loans that would not be able to be paid back, the multiplier effect overall could be somewhat devastating, especially in an environment where we are entering a worldwide recession next year.  My hunch is that this vague new tax policy, is the result of a bureaucrat trying to win favor with the new administration, and it is something that will fall by the wayside, just as other very poorly thought out policies have in the past in Thailand. The idea of taxing expat funds being brought into Thailand, and then spent within Thailand, is so insanely counterproductive that it will never come to pass.

I don't want get involved in a debate about how many expats etc because that is not the purpose of this thread. It is nevertheless useful I think to have a rough number in mind because it gives context to the issue being discussed. Perhaps the two most useful links are below. The forum discussion on this subject in 2019 confirmed the 150,000 western expats, wiki also helped break down the 4 million into ethnic groups by using UN data from 2000 which can be extrapolated. Lastly, a separate report estimated 41,000 British expats in Thailand, in 2020.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Thailand

 

 

 

[linksman00]

6 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

I don't want get involved in a debate about how many expats etc because that is not the purpose of this thread. It is nevertheless useful I think to have a rough number in mind because it gives context to the issue being discussed. Perhaps the two most useful links are below. The forum discussion on this subject in 2019 confirmed the 150,000 western expats, wiki also helped break down the 4 million into ethnic groups by using UN data from 2000 which can be extrapolated. Lastly, a separate report estimated 41,000 British expats in Thailand, in 2020.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Thailand

 

 

 

No argument here michael, we could play the numbers game all day long, I guess that we will just have to agree to disagree!  The bottom line is that when you tax something, you wind up getting less of it, this is a very basic principle of economics. Like I stated in my closing line "to tax funds coming into a country, that are coming in for the express purpose of being spent within that country's economy, is so insanely counterproductive that it will never come to pass" , unless of course Thailand were to fall into the hands of a bunch of left wing lunatic Marxists.