Rising Support for Hamas Among Palestinians: A Closer Look

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A recent poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) between May 26 and June 1 has revealed a significant increase in support for Hamas among Palestinians in both the West Bank and Gaza. The survey's findings reflect shifting attitudes towards armed struggle and political leadership in the Palestinian territories, painting a complex picture of the current political climate.

 

Support for Hamas and Fatah

The poll indicates that overall support for Hamas in the Palestinian territories has risen to 40%, a six-point increase from the previous survey conducted three months ago. In contrast, support for the Fatah party, led by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, stands at only 20%. This marks a considerable shift from pre-war figures, where support for Hamas was at 22% and for Fatah at 26%.

 

In the West Bank, 41% of residents now support Hamas, up from 35% three months ago, while support for Fatah has increased slightly to 17%, from 12%. In Gaza, support for Hamas has also grown to 38%, up from 34%, whereas Fatah's support has marginally declined to 24% from 25%.

 

A notable portion of respondents, 8%, expressed support for other groups, while 33% stated they did not support any group or were unsure.

 

Increasing Support for Armed Struggle

The survey also found a rise in support for armed struggle as the preferred method to end Israeli rule and establish a Palestinian state. A little over half of Palestinians (54%) now favor armed struggle, an eight-point increase compared to March. In contrast, only a quarter of respondents preferred negotiations, and 16% opted for nonviolent resistance.

 

West Bank vs. Gaza Perspectives

The survey, which sampled 1,570 adults divided almost equally between the West Bank and Gaza, revealed a stark difference in perspectives between the two regions. A significant majority in the West Bank (79%) believe that Hamas will emerge victorious from the current conflict and 71% want the group to rule Gaza post-war. In stark contrast, only 48% of Gazans expect Hamas to win, an 8-point decrease from three months ago, and 25% predict that Israel will prevail. Additionally, 46% of Gazans want Hamas to remain in power after the conflict.

 

PCPSR director Khalil Shikaki attributes this discrepancy to the different sources of information available in the two territories. West Bank residents primarily rely on Al Jazeera for news updates, which may shape their perceptions differently from Gazans, who directly observe military developments and the dismantling of Hamas's capabilities.

 

Media Influence and Information Disparities

Al Jazeera, a Qatari-owned outlet, has been criticized in Israel for its perceived biased coverage of the war, particularly its portrayal of the October 7 attack by Gazan terror groups. Israel has responded by taking Al Jazeera broadcasts off the air, seizing equipment, and sealing its offices, citing national security concerns.

 

Leadership Preferences and Future Governance

When considering future governance of Gaza, besides Hamas, the next preferred option among Palestinians is a revitalized Palestinian Authority (PA) with newly elected leadership, supported by 16% of respondents. Only 6% favor the current PA under Abbas. The survey highlights Abbas's deep unpopularity, with 94% of West Bankers and 83% of Gazans wanting him to resign.

 

A mere 1% of respondents expressed a desire for the Israeli army to control Gaza, 2% preferred UN control, and 1% favored governance by one or more Arab states. Furthermore, there is widespread opposition (75%) to the deployment of an Arab security force in Gaza, even if it were to assist Palestinian forces.

 

International and Legal Perspectives

The survey also explored Palestinians' views on international legal efforts. A significant majority (75%) do not believe that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will be able to halt Israeli military actions in Rafah due to U.S. protection of Israel. Similarly, 71% doubt that the International Criminal Court (ICC) will succeed in arresting or prosecuting Israeli or Hamas leaders.

 

The findings from PCPSR provide a nuanced understanding of the current political and social sentiments among Palestinians, reflecting increased support for Hamas and armed struggle, alongside deep-seated discontent with current leadership and skepticism about international intervention.

 

Credit: TOI 2024-06-18

 

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