Russia's Waning Soviet-Era Arsenal: A Tactical Shift Looms in Ukraine

[Social Media]

 

For a long time, the vast population and resources of Russia seemed to guarantee a dominant position in the ongoing war of attrition with Ukraine. However, recent developments indicate that Russia's offensive, particularly the much-anticipated push against Kharkiv that began in May, is losing momentum. Strategic gains elsewhere, especially in the Donbas region, have been minimal and costly. The focus now shifts from Ukraine's resilience to questioning how long Russia can sustain its current military operations.

 

 

Russia's challenge isn't manpower. The country continues to recruit around 25,000 soldiers monthly, maintaining about 470,000 troops at the front. Although these efforts are increasingly expensive, missile production aimed at Ukrainian infrastructure is ramping up. Despite claims of transforming into a war economy, with 8% of its GDP dedicated to military spending, Russia is struggling to replace its enormous losses in tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery. This replenishment relies heavily on refurbishing Soviet-era stockpiles.

 

These reserves, though extensive, are not endless. By most intelligence estimates, Russia has lost approximately 3,000 tanks and 5,000 other armored vehicles in the first two years of the conflict. The open-source intelligence site Oryx, based in the Netherlands, has documented 3,235 Russian tank losses through photographic or videographic evidence, suggesting the actual figure is much higher.

 

Aleksandr Golts from the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies credits the Cold War-era politburo for amassing these stockpiles. He explains that Soviet leaders, aware of the superior Western military technology, prioritized quantity, producing thousands of armored vehicles during peacetime in preparation for potential conflict. Before the Soviet Union's collapse, they possessed more armored vehicles than the rest of the world combined.

 

In December 2023, then-Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the delivery of 1,530 tanks within the year. However, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London reported that nearly 85% of these were not new but refurbished models, mainly T-72s, T-62s, and even some T-55s dating back to the post-World War II era.

 

Since the invasion, around 175 modern T-90M tanks have been deployed to the front. The IISS estimates that production might reach 90 this year, although Michael Gjerstad, an IISS analyst, notes that many T-90Ms are upgrades of older T-90As. With these numbers dwindling, the production of newly built T-90Ms may be as low as 28. Pavel Luzin, an expert on Russian military capacity at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, believes Russia can only produce 30 new tanks annually. A captured T-90M revealed its gun dated back to 1992.

 

Luzin asserts that Russia's capacity to build new tanks, infantry vehicles, or refurbish old ones is hindered by component shortages. Parts intended for use by 2025 have already been used, and critical components, like fuel-heaters, high-voltage electrical systems, and infrared thermal imaging, were previously imported from Europe, now blocked by sanctions. Chinese alternatives exist but often fall short of previous quality standards. Furthermore, production of ferroalloys has decreased over the past two years. Most welding is manual, and despite claims of triple shifts, there is a struggle to recruit workers. The industry relies on aging machine tools imported from Germany and Sweden, complicating maintenance.

 

The dissolution of the Soviet armaments supply chain exacerbates these issues. Ukraine, Georgia, and East Germany were pivotal in manufacturing Soviet weapons and components, with Kharkiv notably producing T-72 turrets. Luzin notes a significant reduction in Russia's military-industrial workforce, from about 10 million to 2 million, without corresponding advances in automation.

 

Another pressing issue is artillery-barrel production. While North Korea has helped ensure a supply of shells, with an estimated 3 million produced this year, sufficient to outgun Ukrainian forces significantly, the high firing rates have rapidly worn out barrels. In heavily contested areas, howitzer barrels need replacing every few months. Luzin points out that only two factories possess the Austrian rotary forging machines required for barrel production, each capable of producing only 100 barrels a year, far short of demand.

 

Russia has resorted to cannibalizing barrels from older artillery for use in self-propelled howitzers, but this is not a sustainable long-term solution. Gjerstad indicates that with systems like the TOS-1A, efforts to extend barrel life have led to shorter firing bursts.

 

The greatest concern, however, lies with tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, crucial for large-scale offensive operations. In February, the IISS estimated Russia had about 3,200 tanks in storage, yet Gjerstad reports that up to 70% remain unmoved since the war's onset. Many T-72s have been exposed to the elements since the 1990s and are likely in poor condition. Golts and Luzin agree that at current attrition rates, refurbishment from storage will hit a "critical point of exhaustion" by the latter half of next year, with Gjerstad extending this timeline by a few months. Russia aims to avoid a sudden shortage of new tanks at the front, prompting a shift in focus to drone production under new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.

 

Unless there are significant changes, Russian forces may need to adopt a more defensive posture by year's end, potentially becoming evident before summer concludes. This situation may increase President Putin's interest in negotiating a temporary ceasefire.

 

Credit: The Economist 2024-07-22

 

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[thaibeachlovers]

On 7/22/2024 at 8:36 AM, Social Media said:

Unless there are significant changes, Russian forces may need to adopt a more defensive posture by year's end, potentially becoming evident before summer concludes.

If I'm wrong tell me, but IMO Russia is already in a defensive mode. No large scale attacks since Adviikva, unless I missed something. Seems to me that what is going on is just low scale attempts to provide a defensive perimeter.

Unless the Russian command is completely bonkers they will be digging defensive positions to hold the wanted line.

For Ukraine to win they have to push Russian troops back into Russia, but for Russia to win they only have to hold what they already have, a much easier task than an assault.

 

BTW, don't need tanks for a defensive line.

[Danderman123]

Russia continues offensive actions in the Donbas area, incurring significant losses to capture small areas.

 

The technical term for Ukraine's strategy is called "rope-a-dope".

[thaibeachlovers]

On 7/23/2024 at 1:26 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

If I'm wrong tell me, but IMO Russia is already in a defensive mode. No large scale attacks since Adviikva, unless I missed something. Seems to me that what is going on is just low scale attempts to provide a defensive perimeter.

Unless the Russian command is completely bonkers they will be digging defensive positions to hold the wanted line.

For Ukraine to win they have to push Russian troops back into Russia, but for Russia to win they only have to hold what they already have, a much easier task than an assault.

 

BTW, don't need tanks for a defensive line.

To the poster gave that a laughing emoji- you know who you are- what was that for? You think Russia won't build defenses or you think tanks are a defensive weapon?

 

I bet you won't reply

[thaibeachlovers]

On 7/22/2024 at 8:36 AM, Social Media said:

critical components, like fuel-heaters, high-voltage electrical systems, and infrared thermal imaging, were previously imported from Europe, now blocked by sanctions. Chinese alternatives exist but often fall short of previous quality standards. Furthermore, production of ferroalloys has decreased over the past two years. Most welding is manual, and despite claims of triple shifts, there is a struggle to recruit workers. The industry relies on aging machine tools imported from Germany and Sweden, complicating maintenance.

Am I to believe that the author is telling the truth when they say that the west supplied equipment for Russian offensive weaponry?

If that is correct, am I alone in thinking western governments that allowed it must be barking at the moon crazy?

[expat_4_life]

On 7/25/2024 at 10:32 AM, thaibeachlovers said:

Am I to believe that the author is telling the truth when they say that the west supplied equipment for Russian offensive weaponry?

If that is correct, am I alone in thinking western governments that allowed it must be barking at the moon crazy?

 

Yes, it sort of true that the west (France) did supply some mix of technology, expertise and components for thermal imaging.  Russia seems to have been improving on it since 2012.

Pretty well covered here in these articles.
https://seadr.quora.com/Progress-in-Russian-thermal-imaging

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/10/06/t-90ms-thermal-camera-matrix-is-russian-made-under-french-license/

Edited July 28 by expat_4_life