Democrats Eye Florida Comeback Amid Tightening Races and Key Ballot Measures

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Democrats are increasingly optimistic about their chances in Florida's upcoming presidential and Senate races, with recent polls showing a narrowing gap in a state that has favored Republicans in recent years. A Morning Consult poll released Monday showed Vice President Kamala Harris trailing former President Donald Trump by just 2 points in Florida.

 

Similarly, a poll from The Hill and Emerson College last week indicated former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) was only 1 point behind Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), although most other surveys have shown a slightly larger gap of 4 to 5 points between them.

 

Democrats believe that two significant ballot measures—Amendment 4, which seeks to enshrine abortion rights, and Amendment 3, aimed at legalizing recreational marijuana—will drive voter turnout in their favor during the presidential election year. "It’s all the same story," said Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Party. "We wouldn’t have had to have an abortion amendment if the Republicans hadn’t taken our state in such an extreme direction."

 

Fried also suggested that Florida voters are experiencing "Trump fatigue," which she believes is contributing to a "huge momentum shift in the state." She added, "People are just tired. They’re tired of the chaos. They’re tired of the show. They’re tired of the rhetoric. You’re seeing that with the momentum shift for Kamala Harris."

 

Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign is echoing this message, positioning her as a fresh face in a state dominated by Republicans and criticizing Scott on issues such as abortion access, Social Security, and Medicare. Lauren Chou, communications director for Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign, said, "There is a lot of new energy on the ground in Florida, a lot of hopefulness that I think comes with having fresh leaders."

 

The Harris campaign is also investing resources in Florida, particularly on abortion rights, launching the “Reproductive Rights for All” bus tour in Palm Beach last week, featuring Mucarsel-Powell and other national Democrats. Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff is also set to visit Florida as part of the campaign’s “New Way Forward” tour.

 

Despite the positive signs for Democrats, there remains skepticism about their ability to win a presidential or Senate race in Florida. The state has trended Republican in recent years, even as the GOP struggled nationwide in the 2022 midterms. GOP strategist Ford O’Connell noted, "Given how Florida has moved from Barack Obama in 2012 narrowly winning the state to today, 12 years later, it’s just a totally different Florida," citing the party’s nearly 1 million voter registration advantage.

 

While Republicans acknowledge that the abortion and marijuana ballot measures could boost turnout, they argue that Florida voters have a history of supporting liberal ballot measures while electing Republican officials. Both measures need 60 percent support to pass, making Republican voter backing essential.

 

Trump and Scott have voiced opposition to Amendment 4, but they differ on Amendment 3, with Trump in favor and Scott against. The tight polling numbers reflect the historically close races in Florida; Trump won the state by 3 points in 2020 and 1 point in 2016, while Scott's Senate win in 2018 and his two gubernatorial victories were by margins of less than 2 points. “Nobody has been more successful at winning close elections in the Sunshine State than Rick Scott,” O’Connell said.

 

Trump campaign senior adviser Brian Hughes expressed confidence, stating, "Florida is Trump country," and emphasizing that voters are ready to reelect Trump and Scott. He added, "Floridians are lining up to reject the Biden-Harris agenda of higher costs, open border, and violent crime." Scott’s campaign is working to link Mucarsel-Powell to Harris, with senior adviser Chris Hartline saying, "She supported Kamala and Biden’s policies up and down the board, and that’s just not going to play in Florida."

 

In a recent interview, Scott remained confident, predicting he and Trump would perform well in the state, arguing that voters are "fed up" with the Biden-Harris administration. Hartline noted that pollsters may be struggling to capture the current political climate in Florida, particularly in Miami-Dade County, which has become a Republican stronghold in recent years.

 

A GOP poll showed Harris and Trump tied in Miami-Dade, although Democrats remain optimistic about the area, citing internal polls that show Harris leading. Christian Ulvert, a Florida-based Democratic strategist, noted, "The national picture where independents are moving more toward Democrats and rejecting former President Donald Trump’s campaign, it’s playing out in Florida." He emphasized that the mobilization efforts in Florida could prove crucial as vote-by-mail ballots are sent out.

 

Credit: The Hill 2024-09-13

 

 

 

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[Tug]

Rick Scott is a financial predator he barely escaped prison in the largest Medicare fraud case he took the 5th literally hundreds of times what a world!

[jcmj]

It’s going to be a big mess no matter who wins. Glad I’m not there for this sh*t show. 

[spidermike007]

What happens remains to be seen. Harris no doubt established some momentum from her excellent debate performance, and Trump no doubt shot himself in the foot, yet again with his bizarre rambling about stir fried dogs and cats, the emd of Israel in 24 months, etc. 

 

The real question is will this make a difference? Trump supporters seem entrenched, and it doesn't matter what he says or what he does, they're not going anywhere.

 

It would appear it's the undecided voters that are going to decide this election. Can Harris bring them over to her side in the remaining 7 weeks? 

[Irish star]

2 hours ago, jcmj said:

It’s going to be a big mess no matter who wins. Glad I’m not there for this sh*t show. 

I think we get back to normalcy, especially is house and senate go blue