The supply of rental space is going to skyrocket these 2 years because of massive over-building, particularly around the Sukhumvit area. Many of these projects were undertaken on the somewhat vague notion that demand (and rental prices) will be fundamentally upheld by increasing inflows of expatriates. I'm just wondering what the typical rent would be for an expatriate household like your's, are we as flush as the industry think we are?

Pay 5,000 for a 3 bed house with what would be a nice little garden if it wasn't covered in concrete. Before we moved here (18 months ago) had a 4 bed place with massive garden for 4,000 a month.

Your analysis of the housing market misses one major point / contributory aspect that may help explain why in 2003/2004 so many condo projects have started whilst existing blocks are half empty.

A concensus view amongst local bankers apparently is that teh market is ripe for offloading NPL land. i.e. land repossessed by the bank since 1997.

The typical deal involves a developer buying the land for which the bank provides a loan such that they can start construction and which also finances the land purchase.

The developer then starts construction and starts advertising. When the showroom opens the apartmenst are all sold to local investors for small downpayments. Very few will intend to purchase.

The market is being driven by speculation that prices will increase but where are the buyers?????????

I will wait until the final payments are due and the speculators default.