Thai Baht Expected to Slide to 35.50 per Dollar by 2025

[Isaan sailor]

10 minutes ago, Chivas said:

 

This subject really does infuriate me. Foreign Exchange is taught in Junior school in the main and if not in the first 2 years of high school

 

The Baht takes its fix off the USD second by second and is used in absolutely every foreign exchange transaction no matter what our base currency when the customer wants to obtain Thai baht.....So it sits on every double pairing no matter where we come from

 

So (Sterling/Dollar) x (Dollar/Baht) equates to Sterling Baht

 

So (AUD/Dollar) x  (Dollar/Baht) equates to AUD/Baht

 

So again (CAD/Dollar)  x (Dollar/Baht) equates to the Canadians exchange rate and so on etc etc

 

Firstly what you see is that  the (Dollar/Baht) sits on every single tranaction (relating to the Baht in this instance)

 

Secondly the USD sits firmly within the opposite pairing on every single transaction as well

 

As such no matter where you come from what currency you hold you're only interested in two pairings

 

Now the important bit movement in either of those pairings above in brackets affects the bottom line when the numbers are crunched

 

So giving a wild example.......If Dollar/Baht weakened right out to 50 and Sterling/Dollar had a catastrophic time and went to parity the multiplication sum would (50) x (1)  so Sterling baht would now be 50 interbank

 

Only the USD (as the worlds reserve currency) has a direct exchange rate with every worldwide currency

 

So Brits (for example) are only concerned with Sterling the Dollar and the Baht when the numbers are crunched

 

Doesnt matter what the Yen's doing or the Ringitt or the Euro etc etc etc as they dont sit within the two pairings when the calculation is made

Good explanation, thanks very much.  No, they never covered foreign exchange in our junior or high school, but they should.  I understand reserve currencies and pairings.  Baht exchange rate matters when you’re contemplating a major purchase.

[CallumWK]

Bit strange this, since currency markets are closed during the weekends I thought. On Yahoo finance the baht is listed at 34.10 since the US markets closed.

 

[Isaan sailor]

1 minute ago, CallumWK said:

Bit strange this, since currency markets are closed during the weekends I thought. On Yahoo finance the baht is listed at 34.10 since the US markets closed.

 

Yes, currency markets close on Sunday.  Some of the weekend listings skew currencies downward. I prefer Wise because they seem to have better weekend accuracy.

[chiang mai]

7 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

Bit strange this, since currency markets are closed during the weekends I thought. On Yahoo finance the baht is listed at 34.10 since the US markets closed.

 

Traders can still. Trade over. The weekend, Thompson/Reuters manage trades on behalf of FOREX during that period.

[chiang mai]

21 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Yes, currency markets close on Sunday.  Some of the weekend listings skew currencies downward. I prefer Wise because they seem to have better weekend accuracy.

Except central banks can trade via the bank of international settlements, 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

[SiSePuede419]

Here's what I don't get...

 

If you're rich and you're trading so much currency, why do you care if it's 34.50 or 35.50...,?

 

That's "play money" to you, Rich person. 😋

[CallumWK]

On 12/20/2024 at 7:13 PM, snoop1130 said:

The Thai baht is forecasted to weaken, reaching 34.50 to the US dollar by the end of this year and sliding further to 35.50 in 2025, according to Kasikorn Research Centre (K-Research).

 

Looks like Kasikorn was right on the ball again lol

 

[Isaan sailor]

4 hours ago, CallumWK said:

 

Looks like Kasikorn was right on the ball again lol

 

Maybe if Bank of Thailand valued western currencies the way they did six months ago—Kasikorn would have nailed it.

[chiang mai]

52 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Maybe if Bank of Thailand valued western currencies the way they did six months ago—Kasikorn would have nailed it.

A seven day graph is as meaningless as a 24 hour graph, neither display trend. A 200 day MA on the otherhand......!

 

[Isaan sailor]

6 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

A seven day graph is as meaningless as a 24 hour graph, neither display trend. A 200 day MA on the otherhand......!

 

Damn, busted again.  Thanks.

[TheAppletons]

THB:USD was 34.26 at 11:00 pm last night....making Kasikorn's forecast roughly 99.3% correct.  More accurate than the weather forecast, lol.

 

 

[Captain Flack]

A flame post has been removed.

 

@CallumWK discuss the topic, without the baiting personal attack.

[chiang mai]

2 minutes ago, TheAppletons said:

THB:USD was 34.26 at 11:00 pm last night....making Kasikorn's forecast roughly 99.3% correct.  More accurate than the weather forecast, lol.

 

 

I don't know if the Kasikorn graph is correct or not, my sole point is that a 7 day graph means nothing in terms of trend of future value. Simply, there is not enough data to determine direction, with any accuracy.

[CallumWK]

17 hours ago, chiang mai said:

A seven day graph is as meaningless as a 24 hour graph, neither display trend. A 200 day MA on the otherhand......!

 

 

The 7-day graph is very meaningful in the context of the OP, because Kasikorn claimed that the baht would decline to 34.50 by the end of this year, and that is where we are today.

In the SEVEN days since Kasikorn's claim, the baht has only got stronger, thereby completely contradicting their claim.

[chiang mai]

In the first link below is a useful reference that demonstrates the volatility of forex pairs and uses USD/GBP as an example. Volatility in FOREX is the measurement of risk and the degree to which the prices of the pair vary over time and can be measured over any period. As you can see from the example, USD/GBP volatility averages almost 7% per year, volatility over a seven day period averages around 6%. That means that the quoted price may be up to 6% over or under the average price, at any point in time.

 

There's a second link below that explains trend, which will be useful for some to understand. One quote that's worth repeating is, " The conventional wisdom among traders is that "the trend is your friend." While this is good advice, we add a cautionary phrase: "The trend is your friend… until it ends."

 

https://vlab.stern.nyu.edu/volatility/VOL.GBP%3AFOREX-R.GARCH

 

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/fx/11/stages-of-a-forex-trend.asp#:~:text=A trend is a tendency,profitable entry and exit points.