Where is the weed industry headed in Thailand?

[blaze master]

16 hours ago, SLOWHAND225 said:

 

No it doesn't, not even close. 

 

When the market is flooded, the price drops. When the price drops, the smaller growers fold up.  When the inventory declines, the price rises. Basic economics. 

 

Pounds of top tier in Calif. Has been sub 500 usd for the last 6 yrs in a row come August. 

Oz, can be had for 20 usd starting in Aug. as they flush remaining inventory 

 

The same is true here

 

Add on top of that a whole lot of shady activity in the market.

[bamnutsak]

1 hour ago, blaze master said:

Add on top of that a whole lot of shady activity in the market.

 

Can you share any of this shady activity? 

 

And by market, you mean here in Thailand?

 

I think folks need to be a bit more precise about "the market", especially source (Thailand only), customer segments (Thai, tourist) type (indoor, outdoor, greenhouse, light supplement) and real average prices, not just the lowest.

 

 

[blaze master]

Just now, bamnutsak said:

 

Can you share any of this shady activity? 

 

And by market, you mean here in Thailand?

 

I think folks need to be a bit more precise about "the market", especially source (Thailand only), customer segments (Thai, tourist) type (indoor, outdoor, greenhouse, light supplement) and real average prices, not just the lowest.

 

 

 

For the thai market.

 

Illegal exports. Stolen electricity by certain groups. Unlicensed farms.  

[bamnutsak]

1 minute ago, blaze master said:

Illegal exports.

 

I think you mean "imports"? Right.

 

1 minute ago, blaze master said:

Stolen electricity by certain groups.

 

BTC mining, and scam call centers are probably more profitable if you're going to steal electricity.

 

 

2 minutes ago, blaze master said:

Unlicensed farms.  

 

Given that licenses cost very little I'm not seeing a big impact on COGS due to licensing. But yes, there have been articles about a farm or two getting busted.

 

 

[blaze master]

2 minutes ago, bamnutsak said:

 

I think you mean "imports"? Right.

 

 

BTC mining, and scam call centers are probably more profitable if you're going to steal electricity.

 

 

 

Given that licenses cost very little I'm not seeing a big impact on COGS due to licensing. But yes, there have been articles about a farm or two getting busted.

 

 

 

I mean exports yes.  Sure those things may be more profitable. I'm just going with my own anecdotal evidence. Maybe the people involved preferred to grow over those other 2. There's always room for scammers right.

 

 

[bamnutsak]

3 minutes ago, blaze master said:

I mean exports yes.

 

You mean cannabis which is grown in Thailand and shipped to another country (ies)?

 

Is there a lot of this, in your estimation?

 

What are the three largest export markets?

 

Other than a few odd ducks transporting a few kilos in their baggage to the U.K. I have not heard about this activity.

 

6 minutes ago, blaze master said:

There's always room for scammers right.

 

But certainly a limit on available electricity to steal.

 

 

[blaze master]

4 minutes ago, bamnutsak said:

 

You mean cannabis which is grown in Thailand and shipped to another country (ies)?

 

Is there a lot of this, in your estimation?

 

What are the three largest export markets?

 

Other than a few odd ducks transporting a few kilos in their baggage to the U.K. I have not heard about this activity.

 

 

But certainly a limit on available electricity to steal.

 

 

 

Yes. The illegal export market from thailand is massive. I would say India viet nam UK and France. 

 

With the electricity it would e interesting to know the comparative costs of each vs the monetary reward. 

 Ac and lights vs miners and ac

[bamnutsak]

7 minutes ago, blaze master said:

Yes. The illegal export market from thailand is massive. I would say India viet nam UK and France. 

 

This is finished cannabis flower, right?

 

Interesting.

 

When you say "massive", can you bound that? How is this transported?

 

Other drugs (meth, crystal, ketamine)  - given that Thailand is a major transshipment country for these - would seem more profitable given the cost/price per weight/volume. And the odor, of cannabis, would be another challenge. Drugs dogs can probably smell a big haul before the ship has gotten within a few Km of docks.

 

Yes, this would definitely affect local supply, and thus, local prices.

 

 

[RSD1]

On 3/3/2025 at 7:36 AM, blaze master said:

Yes. The illegal export market from thailand is massive. I would say India viet nam UK and France. 

Possibly at least 5X the size of the legal domestic market.  
 

Thailand’s main illegal cannabis exports are likely to:

 

    1.    Malaysia - Close proximity, strict laws, steady demand.
    2.    Singapore - High enforcement, high prices, regional hub.
    3.    Indonesia - Large population, harsh laws, maritime access.
    4.    Vietnam - Nearby, illicit networks, growing use.
    5.    China - Massive market, border proximity via intermediaries.

 

Of what makes it to Europe; Spain, The Netherlands, UK, Germany, France. 

 

[blaze master]

2 minutes ago, RSD1 said:

Possibly at least 5X the size of the legal domestic market.  
 

Thailand’s main illegal cannabis exports are likely to:

 

    1.    Malaysia - Close proximity, strict laws, steady demand.
    2.    Singapore - High enforcement, high prices, regional hub.
    3.    Indonesia - Large population, harsh laws, maritime access.
    4.    Vietnam - Nearby, illicit networks, growing use.
    5.    China - Massive market, border proximity via intermediaries.

 

Of what makes it to Europe; Spain, The Netherlands, UK, Germany, France. 

 

 

Don't forget India. 

[RSD1]

11 minutes ago, blaze master said:

 

Don't forget India. 

 

Didn't forget it. I’d say illegal cannabis exports from Thailand to India are minimal. India grows more than enough of its own. In 2021, the seizure of 1,800 kg of ganja in Maharashtra suggests there is significant local supply already.

 

India also has a much longer history with it, both culturally and agriculturally, than Thailand and the economics don’t favor high-volume smuggling there. Thus it would be much harder to turn a profit there with contraband cannabis from Thailand than in the richer countries in the world. 

 

Surely there's some going into certain niche markets there. But Thailand’s traffickers are better off targeting countries with stricter prohibitions, higher prices, or less local supply, think China, Southeast Asia and Europe.

[blaze master]

8 minutes ago, RSD1 said:

 

Didn't forget it. I’d say illegal cannabis exports from Thailand to India are minimal. India grows more than enough of its own. In 2021, the seizure of 1,800 kg of ganja in Maharashtra suggests there is significant local supply already.

 

India also has a much longer history with it, both culturally and agriculturally, than Thailand and the economics don’t favor high-volume smuggling there. Thus it would be much harder to turn a profit there with contraband cannabis from Thailand than in the richer countries in the world. 

 

Surely there's some going into certain niche markets there. But Thailand’s traffickers are better off targeting countries with stricter prohibitions, higher prices, or less local supply, think China, Southeast Asia and Europe.

 

The market is quite big for India. A friend told me. 

[RSD1]

6 minutes ago, blaze master said:

A friend told me. 

Is that like "Just asking for a friend"? 🤣

[blaze master]

14 minutes ago, RSD1 said:

Is that like "Just asking for a friend"? 🤣

 

No way.

[SLOWHAND225]

46 minutes ago, RSD1 said:

Possibly at least 5X the size of the legal domestic market.  
 

Thailand’s main illegal cannabis exports are likely to:

 

    1.    Malaysia - Close proximity, strict laws, steady demand.
    2.    Singapore - High enforcement, high prices, regional hub.
    3.    Indonesia - Large population, harsh laws, maritime access.
    4.    Vietnam - Nearby, illicit networks, growing use.
    5.    China - Massive market, border proximity via intermediaries.

 

Of what makes it to Europe; Spain, The Netherlands, UK, Germany, France. 

 

 

You have sources for any of that ?