Middle East Russia Faces Strategic Setback Amid Rising Tensions Between Iran and Israel

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Russia Faces Strategic Setback Amid Rising Tensions Between Iran and Israel

 

As Israel's Operation Rising Lion intensifies, Moscow has expressed growing alarm over the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Russian officials have called the situation both "alarming" and "dangerous." Yet, despite their concern, Russia’s initial response to the outbreak of violence was tinged with optimism.

 

State media in Russia were quick to highlight potential advantages the conflict might bring to Moscow. Among the most prominent was the expected rise in global oil prices, which could significantly boost Russia’s energy revenues at a time when its economy remains under pressure from international sanctions. Another supposed benefit was the redirection of global focus. One major newspaper, Moskovsky Komsomolets, ran a headline proclaiming, “Kyiv has been forgotten,” referencing how the attention of the international community might shift away from Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.

 

There was also the hope that Russia might position itself as a mediator in the Middle East, enhancing its geopolitical standing by offering to broker peace. Such a role could serve to reframe Moscow’s image from aggressor in Ukraine to potential peacemaker in a volatile region. This, however, remains largely hypothetical.

 

As the fighting drags on, the Russian narrative is beginning to shift, revealing deeper concerns about the broader implications of Israel’s military campaign. “The escalation of the conflict carries serious risks and potential costs for Moscow,” wrote political analyst Andrei Kortunov in the business daily Kommersant. “The fact remains that Russia was unable to prevent a mass strike by Israel on a country with which five months ago [Russia] signed a comprehensive strategic partnership.”

 

Kortunov's words underscore Moscow's impotence in the face of a rapidly changing strategic environment. Despite its strong rhetoric condemning Israel, Russia has shown no signs of being willing—or able—to provide Iran with direct military assistance. This reveals the limits of the so-called strategic pact that Presidents Vladimir Putin and Masoud Pezeshkian signed earlier this year. The agreement was not a military alliance, and therefore did not compel Russia to come to Iran’s defense in a time of conflict.

 

Nonetheless, Russia had touted the agreement as a milestone. In an interview with Ria Novosti, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov emphasized that the deal gave “special attention to the strengthening of co-ordination in the interests of peace and security on the regional and global levels, and the desire of Moscow and Tehran for closer co-operation on security and defence.”

 

These promises now appear hollow in the face of real conflict. In fact, this is not the first time Moscow has seen a strategic ally in the region come under threat. Just six months ago, Russia lost its long-time partner in Syria when Bashar al-Assad was ousted from power. Assad later accepted asylum in Russia, but the loss was a significant blow to Moscow’s regional influence.

 

Now, with Iran facing increased pressure from Israel and the specter of regime change looming, the Kremlin faces the possibility of another geopolitical defeat. As Moskovsky Komsomolets remarked on Tuesday, “In global politics right now, massive changes are taking place in real time which will affect life in our country, either directly or indirectly.”

 

While Russia may still benefit economically in the short term, the broader consequences of this conflict threaten to erode its strategic foothold in the Middle East, exposing the fragility of Moscow’s alliances and the limits of its influence.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from BBC  2025-06-19

 

 

[pacovl46]

Putin is sooooooo delusional! 

[candide]

Thanks to Western support of Ukraine, and to sanctions imposed on Russia, it has no resources left to support its allies abroad. Russia did not intervene in Syria to support a long time ally, and it will be the same treatment for Iran.