India Walks Tightrope in Turbulent Rakhine

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thefederal.com

 

As Myanmar’s Rakhine State descends deeper into conflict, India finds itself in a precarious balancing act — courting strategic interests while navigating a volatile warzone.

 

The recent intensification of fighting between the Myanmar military and the powerful Arakan Army has redrawn control lines across the western state. For India, which has long viewed Rakhine as a gateway to Southeast Asia, the situation poses a diplomatic and security dilemma.

 

On one hand, India has invested heavily in the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project — a flagship initiative linking its northeast to Myanmar’s Sittwe Port via Mizoram. But the port now sits in contested territory. The Arakan Army, which has made sweeping territorial gains in recent months, has warned foreign governments against engaging with the junta without their consent.

 

At the same time, India is under pressure to maintain ties with Naypyidaw’s military regime, still the official government in diplomatic terms. The result is a classic case of “hunting with the hounds and swimming with the crocodiles,” as India attempts to hedge its bets in a theatre of growing geopolitical risk.

 

New Delhi's cautious engagement reflects broader regional concerns. China, too, has deep interests in Rakhine — and a stronger Arakan Army presents a potential buffer to Beijing’s growing dominance, while also complicating India’s own plans.

 

Adding to the complexity is the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Rakhine. The Rohingya issue remains unresolved, and the latest wave of violence is displacing thousands more, further destabilising the region. For India, which has faced criticism for its treatment of Rohingya refugees, the crisis presents reputational and ethical challenges.

 

Analysts say India will need to adopt a more flexible, decentralised strategy — one that engages not just Naypyidaw, but emerging actors like the Arakan Army. Without that, its investments risk becoming stranded assets, and its influence in Myanmar could fade as new power structures emerge.

 

In Rakhine, there are no easy allies — only shifting frontlines and uncertain loyalties. For India, walking that line may prove its most difficult regional test yet.

 

-2025-07-01