Sub-prime Meltdown Hits Thailand With Force

[Carmine6]

Here's the text of today's statments. Great Depression clear as day.

Release Date: August 17, 2007

For immediate release

The Federal Reserve Board on Friday approved actions by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas decreasing the discount rate at the Banks from 6-1/4 percent to 5-3/4 percent, effective immediately.

The Board also approved an action by the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, decreasing the discount rate at the Bank from 6-1/4 percent to 5-3/4 percent, effective August 20, 2007.

For immediate release

Financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth going forward. In these circumstances, although recent data suggest that the economy has continued to expand at a moderate pace, the Federal Open Market Committee judges that the downside risks to growth have increased appreciably. The Committee is monitoring the situation and is prepared to act as needed to mitigate the adverse effects on the economy arising from the disruptions in financial markets.

Voting in favor of the policy announcement were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Michael H. Moskow; Eric Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh.

[AGareth2]

14 days of consecutive foriegn sales on the SET.

Good or bad news?

[VegasVic]

14 days of consecutive foriegn sales on the SET.

Good or bad news?

The redemtions are likely to continue, but this should be good news for the Thai economy as these redemtions should help the baht to continue to weaken. Of course if you are invested in the SET then this might not be such good news

[VegasVic]

Here's the text of today's statments. Great Depression clear as day.

Release Date: August 17, 2007

For immediate release

The Federal Reserve Board on Friday approved actions by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas decreasing the discount rate at the Banks from 6-1/4 percent to 5-3/4 percent, effective immediately.

The Board also approved an action by the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, decreasing the discount rate at the Bank from 6-1/4 percent to 5-3/4 percent, effective August 20, 2007.

For immediate release

Financial market conditions have deteriorated, and tighter credit conditions and increased uncertainty have the potential to restrain economic growth going forward. In these circumstances, although recent data suggest that the economy has continued to expand at a moderate pace, the Federal Open Market Committee judges that the downside risks to growth have increased appreciably. The Committee is monitoring the situation and is prepared to act as needed to mitigate the adverse effects on the economy arising from the disruptions in financial markets.

Voting in favor of the policy announcement were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Michael H. Moskow; Eric Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh.

Yes indeed it looks like financial armegedon is just around the corner Lets all buy gold and canned goods and build fallout shelters

[Naam]

Yes indeed it looks like financial armegedon is just around the corner Lets all buy gold and canned goods and build fallout shelters

waht about condoms? do we need condoms? if yes, what size?

[stumonster]

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-coun...=la-home-center

A rush to pull out cash

Worried about the stability of mortgage giant Countrywide Financial, depositors crowd branches. In Laguna Niguel, Bill Ashmore drove his Porsche Cayenne to the bank's office and waited half an hour to cash out $500,000. "It's got my wife totally freaked out," he said.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articl...49_FORTUNE5.htm

THE RATINGS GAME: Countrywide Upgraded As Analysts Say Lender Can Weather The Storm

Dow Jones

August 17, 2007: 11:58 AM EST

BOSTON (Dow Jones) -- An analyst at Banc of America Securities upgraded shares of troubled mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. to neutral from sell Friday, saying that tapping its $11.5 billion credit facility should provide Countrywide the time needed to address liquidity and capital concerns.

In a research note, however, analyst Robert Lacoursiere cut his price target on the stock to $21 from $31. Shares of Countrywide (CFC) , the largest U.S. mortgage lender, closed Thursday off 11% at $18.95 after it said it borrowed $ 11.5 billion from a group of 40 banks due to problems finding money in credit markets. To reduce its reliance on credit markets further, the company said that it would try to originate nearly all mortgages through its banking operation.

Lacoursiere said the upgrade doesn't reflect any shift in his bearish stance on the residential mortgage market. Instead, the stock price "fairly balances the probability of a conservative worst-case outcome of a liquidity induced distressed asset/breakup sale valued $7.25 against the prospect of a smaller and much less profitable company that we would value at $23.50 today."

this could be the bank they are talking about

[midas]

Yes indeed it looks like financial armegedon is just around the corner Lets all buy gold and canned goods and build fallout shelters

waht about condoms? do we need condoms? if yes, what size?

you mean the same way the army includes them in the " survival kit "

They have such good uses

[Hampstead]

armegedon, great depression OMG

always the same guys running around with their hair on fire, thinking the whole world will cave in, panicking

what you saw last week, was capitulation, its the final leg in the panic sellers running to jump of a cliff and dump every stock they have.

the dow on thursday had a low of 12500, and finished two days later over 13000, still only 6 % off its all time high,

markets around the world will become more volatile, and last week was certainly capitulation, but in no way is it an relation to the great depression, 1987, or the dot com bust.

[Ned]

Inflation done the line......rising interest rates.....massive foreclosures on home mortgages across the board and collapse of US housing market and industry......Dollar not worth the paper it's printed on. Capital flight and collapse of US economy on the cards. Thailand's largest export market wiped out. Buy gold and baked beans now.

[Hampstead]

Isn't there a flaw in the Nation editorial's suggestion that foreign investors are taking their money out of Thailand to pay debts back home? While this usually makes sense - and is the first thing that happens in a downturn e.g. vacation homes are sold to prop up the other bad debts in the principal asset base back home - it actually doesn't make sense here since foreign investors in the SET actually CAN'T get their money out for a full year. Isn't that still the case? Or did they lift that unpopular rule?

the thai money markets have seen over the last 3 weeks, foreign investments leaving thailand at the tune of roughly 350 million dollars a week.

most of this money are from hedge fund accounts.

this money will be sent back to the us or europe to cover redemptions on those clients looking to leave the fund.

most hedge funds will take the profits on their cash rich shares, which has been asian shares.

thailand has also seen alot of funds stay in thailand, waiting to come back into the thai market, in waiting for a clearer political outcome next week and for the rest of the year.

so its certainly not all doom and gloom

as for money coming and going from the thai money markets, nowadays the bot asks an investor to set up a special bank account just for this purpose

[joeuk1]

Thursday was a day of panic when the closing bell went at 5pm i felt like i had been dragged through a hedge backwards then ran over by a 10 wheel truck it was that painfull . Friday was better in the markets i trade the weak longs and those that had to got out Thurs all the my markets rallied off the lows Friday throughout the day and had strong closes .

We will have a busy last qtr i still cant help myself being a RAGING BULL

JB

[Carmine6]

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-coun...=la-home-center

A rush to pull out cash

Worried about the stability of mortgage giant Countrywide Financial, depositors crowd branches. In Laguna Niguel, Bill Ashmore drove his Porsche Cayenne to the bank's office and waited half an hour to cash out $500,000. "It's got my wife totally freaked out," he said.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articl...49_FORTUNE5.htm

THE RATINGS GAME: Countrywide Upgraded As Analysts Say Lender Can Weather The Storm

Dow Jones

August 17, 2007: 11:58 AM EST

BOSTON (Dow Jones) -- An analyst at Banc of America Securities upgraded shares of troubled mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp. to neutral from sell Friday, saying that tapping its $11.5 billion credit facility should provide Countrywide the time needed to address liquidity and capital concerns.

In a research note, however, analyst Robert Lacoursiere cut his price target on the stock to $21 from $31. Shares of Countrywide (CFC) , the largest U.S. mortgage lender, closed Thursday off 11% at $18.95 after it said it borrowed $ 11.5 billion from a group of 40 banks due to problems finding money in credit markets. To reduce its reliance on credit markets further, the company said that it would try to originate nearly all mortgages through its banking operation.

Lacoursiere said the upgrade doesn't reflect any shift in his bearish stance on the residential mortgage market. Instead, the stock price "fairly balances the probability of a conservative worst-case outcome of a liquidity induced distressed asset/breakup sale valued $7.25 against the prospect of a smaller and much less profitable company that we would value at $23.50 today."

this could be the bank they are talking about

Oh Countrywide. The bankruptcy rumor was out way before the Fed statement and before they drew off the creditline. August $5 and $2.50 puts where active on Wednesday and they expired Friday. That was basically a bankruptcy bet because it was above $20 and then dropped below $16 on the bankruptcy rumor on Thursday. It's more of a mortgage bank. I didn't even know they had a retail bank. All of 93 branches in 12 states.

Countrwide will be snapped up if they have problems. Even if loan originations dry up they had $5 billion in loan servicing revenue last year.

[theseveredhead]

im so pissed... ive been in cash for ages making nothing on it knowing that all that cheap money was going todamage the economy and also 'bernie' (LOSER) was making some hints about inflation (which is actually like freaking 3%+). he LOWERS that rate - which will bring more inflation and is exactly what got the us into the mess.

as for me - my cash rate has not been lowered yet, but im waiting. punished for being right!

anyone that thinks the markets are not rigged is total clueless. so now...credit market disaster...toss in money becasue it impacts equity markets.

GOD what can i do with my usd!!!

[LaoPo]

im so pissed... ive been in cash for ages making nothing on it knowing that all that cheap money was going to damage the economy and also 'bernie' (LOSER) was making some hints about inflation (which is actually like freaking 3%+). he LOWERS that rate - which will bring more inflation and is exactly what got the us into the mess.

as for me - my cash rate has not been lowered yet, but im waiting. punished for being right!

anyone that thinks the markets are not rigged is total clueless. so now...credit market disaster...toss in money becasue it impacts equity markets.

GOD what can i do with my usd!!!

I agree. The lowered rate by the FED was an Aspirin and made the headache go away -temporarily- in order to ease the panic and crisis, on Friday, but the problem is still there and didn't go away, by far.

The millions of house owners who are in trouble and have problems, paying their mortgage debts are still there...

"Cash Infusions

The Fed acted yesterday after its injections of cash into the federal-funds market in the past week failed to ease companies' access to capital. While there were enough funds to drive the effective federal funds rate below the 5.25 percent, credit in other markets was scarce.

The amount of commercial paper outstanding, a key financing tool, fell the most in the week to Aug. 15 since the 2001 terror attacks. Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, tapped an entire $11.5 billion bank line this week to get funds.

``This is an attempt to wake the world up,'' said John Roberts, managing director and head of government bond trading at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. ``The system is flush in overnight money. Where the system is stacked up is in term funding.''

Housing Recession

The Fed's action reflects alarm that more restrictive lending and market volatility will deepen the housing recession and weaken employment. As recently as the Aug. 7 meeting, the FOMC said inflation was still the biggest danger to the economy. Yesterday's statement, approved unanimously by 10 Fed governors and presidents, didn't mention inflation.

Bernanke and his colleagues changed tack as losses mounted on subprime securities and concern spread that major lenders would be harmed.

Merrill analysts raised the risk in an Aug. 15 report that Countrywide could go bankrupt. JPMorgan, the biggest lender in the leveraged buyout market, may forfeit about $1.4 billion of second-half profit because of loans it can't sell, according to Keith Horowitz, an analyst at Citigroup.

However*: At the same time, there are signs that inflation, the Fed's preoccupation up to now, is receding. The Fed's preferred gauge, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 1.9 percent in the 12 months to June, the lowest rate in three years.

* That is contrary on what's happening; the point is: where and when were these signs ? prior to the rate cut...? We'll have to wait and see.

From: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

LaoPo

[j_cheung]

Yes indeed it looks like financial armegedon is just around the corner Lets all buy gold and canned goods and build fallout shelters

waht about condoms? do we need condoms? if yes, what size?

No condoms! With 2 babes for each male survivor, we need to breed more to repopulate the earth! Time to unleash your precious bodily fluids! ... Opps, I misread Financial ... not Nuclear ... Nevermind ;-)

Edited August 18, 2007 by j_cheung

[thaigene2]

Isn't there a flaw in the Nation editorial's suggestion that foreign investors are taking their money out of Thailand to pay debts back home? While this usually makes sense - and is the first thing that happens in a downturn e.g. vacation homes are sold to prop up the other bad debts in the principal asset base back home - it actually doesn't make sense here since foreign investors in the SET actually CAN'T get their money out for a full year. Isn't that still the case? Or did they lift that unpopular rule?

the thai money markets have seen over the last 3 weeks, foreign investments leaving thailand at the tune of roughly 350 million dollars a week.

most of this money are from hedge fund accounts.

this money will be sent back to the us or europe to cover redemptions on those clients looking to leave the fund.

most hedge funds will take the profits on their cash rich shares, which has been asian shares.

thailand has also seen alot of funds stay in thailand, waiting to come back into the thai market, in waiting for a clearer political outcome next week and for the rest of the year.

so its certainly not all doom and gloom

as for money coming and going from the thai money markets, nowadays the bot asks an investor to set up a special bank account just for this purpose

Thanks for the informed explanation. (seriously)..

However, taking the cash and 'profit taking' is of course the jargon of the falling market. Think I'll be waiting for more than a clearer 'political picture'. I'll be waiting for a clearer picture that says "The chinese thai owners of everything here are no longer going to try to screw you out of your investment or insist you partner with them and hand over control of your investment to them before you can invest here or even buy a pot-to-piss-in-here."

I think I'll be waiting a long time time for that assurance - so guess where my money won't be going??

[thaigene2]

hampstead - one other question. If the money markets are watching 350 million USD leave thailand each week, why does the Thai baht continue to disproportionately appreciate against the USD? If money is leaving doesn't that mean the baht should weaken?

[lannarebirth]

'xbusman' said, in post #25:

"...lets all relearn one of the few hard and fast rules of investing."

By and large, I think, there are a lot of people learning it for the first time.

It is probably only those who saw the after-effects of 1929 who really, really learnt it.

They spent their lives over the next 60 to 70 years making sure that the ridiculous disregard of risk that was running riot just before the 1929 crash didn't happen again in their lifetimes. And then they were culled by the Grim Reaper.

There have been voices in the past couple of years speaking out and warning, but they got no hearing.

Incidentally, there is a statistician-scholar (called, I think, Krondatieff) who has detected that there is an underlying cycle in the affairs of mankind that has just this 75-85 year period of frquency.

If ever I become rich like Dr. Naam, I'm thinking of opening a home for destitute K-Wavers.

Anyhow Martin,

I didn't mean to be dismissive of your K-Wave theory. Long Waves definately exist in markets. It's just that many a man has gone broke trying to time such a rare occurance. IMO, which is worth nothing BTW, 2 years hence may see the beginning of the phenomena you're speaking of.

[VegasVic]

armegedon, great depression OMG

always the same guys running around with their hair on fire, thinking the whole world will cave in, panicking

what you saw last week, was capitulation, its the final leg in the panic sellers running to jump of a cliff and dump every stock they have.

the dow on thursday had a low of 12500, and finished two days later over 13000, still only 6 % off its all time high,

markets around the world will become more volatile, and last week was certainly capitulation, but in no way is it an relation to the great depression, 1987, or the dot com bust.

Right on Hamstead! I guess that gold bugs the world over are the same, they are always seeing conspiracies and rooting for a depression or armageddon, because that is the only way that gold would rise from its current inflated levels. In reponse to the poster that brought up Countrywide financial as a possible BK candidate, I will let you know that Countrywide is fully capitalized through 2008 and in the event this current situation got worse and lasts longer than anyone imagines then Countrywide would become a takeover candidate not a BK candidate. Now I will let the gold bugs get back to their fearmongering and perenial pessimisim, as that seems to be the only thing that gives them hope since gold is a dead end

[chinthee]

armegedon, great depression OMG

always the same guys running around with their hair on fire, thinking the whole world will cave in, panicking

what you saw last week, was capitulation, its the final leg in the panic sellers running to jump of a cliff and dump every stock they have.

the dow on thursday had a low of 12500, and finished two days later over 13000, still only 6 % off its all time high,

markets around the world will become more volatile, and last week was certainly capitulation, but in no way is it an relation to the great depression, 1987, or the dot com bust.

Right on Hamstead! I guess that gold bugs the world over are the same, they are always seeing conspiracies and rooting for a depression or armageddon, because that is the only way that gold would rise from its current inflated levels. In reponse to the poster that brought up Countrywide financial as a possible BK candidate, I will let you know that Countrywide is fully capitalized through 2008 and in the event this current situation got worse and lasts longer than anyone imagines then Countrywide would become a takeover candidate not a BK candidate. Now I will let the gold bugs get back to their fearmongering and perenial pessimisim, as that seems to be the only thing that gives them hope since gold is a dead end

Yup, damm straight Vegas. These gold guys should just give it up. I'm tired of it.

[VegasVic]

hampstead - one other question. If the money markets are watching 350 million USD leave thailand each week, why does the Thai baht continue to disproportionately appreciate against the USD? If money is leaving doesn't that mean the baht should weaken?

thaigene2, I am not sure where you are making your currency exchanges, but you might want to consider changing venues Just a few weeks ago the onshore calculator here on thaivisa was quoting the baht at arounf 33.6/U.S.$, today it is showing 34.35/U.S. dollar. The offshore rate for the baht has been weakening to an even greater degree and has been closing the onshore-offshore gap to a degree. As for the goldbugs chinthee, they will likely continue their mantra because that seems to be what the live for, they are perenially regretting missing out on the huge gains that equities make while they hold on to their precious gold that gives neither dividends or interest and usually loses them money, its rather sad perhaps they have a defective gene.

[VegasVic]

hampstead - one other question. If the money markets are watching 350 million USD leave thailand each week, why does the Thai baht continue to disproportionately appreciate against the USD? If money is leaving doesn't that mean the baht should weaken?

thaigene2, I am not sure where you are making your currency exchanges, but you might want to consider changing venues Just a few weeks ago the onshore calculator here on thaivisa was quoting the baht at arounf 33.6/U.S.$, today it is showing 34.35/U.S. dollar. The offshore rate for the baht has been weakening to an even greater degree and has been closing the onshore-offshore gap to a degree. As for the goldbugs chinthee, they will likely continue their mantra because that seems to be what the live for, they are perenially regretting missing out on the huge gains that equities make while they hold on to their precious gold that gives neither dividends or interest and usually loses them money, its rather sad perhaps they have a defective gene.

Just an update before I log off. In reading another thread on thaivisa I see that the baht actually closed at 34.69/U.S.dollar yesterday not 34.35, so the baht must have weakened even more by the end of the trading day.

[Naam]

As for the goldbugs chinthee, they will likely continue their mantra because that seems to be what the live for, they are perenially regretting missing out on the huge gains that equities make while they hold on to their precious gold that gives neither dividends or interest and usually loses them money, its rather sad perhaps they have a defective gene.

the same applies to their brethren the "silver bugs".

[Carmine6]

Back on subject, other than the stock market, what has been the effect? The baht has finally weakened to take some of the stress off exporting companies. That likely outweighs the direct economic impact of any subprime debt or derivative paper held by any Thai banks. Per the OP, Thai banks haven't had to be very sophisticated in their asset holdings so mostly stayed away from this stuff. Hardly any Thais own shares in those banks so few will be impacted. For that matter, how many Thais own any stocks?

Money flowing out of the stock market isn't really money that was being used for economic development. (Short term I mean.) I don't think people are selling factories yet to take the money back home. The recently closed factories were shut in spite of the money flowing into the stock market. It was the baht exchange rate that was killing them.

Hits the SET with force - yes. Hits Thailand with force - ?

What are people in Thailand seeing right now?

[LaoPo]

Back on subject, other than the stock market, what has been the effect? The baht has finally weakened to take some of the stress off exporting companies. That likely outweighs the direct economic impact of any subprime debt or derivative paper held by any Thai banks. Per the OP, Thai banks haven't had to be very sophisticated in their asset holdings so mostly stayed away from this stuff. Hardly any Thais own shares in those banks so few will be impacted. For that matter, how many Thais own any stocks?

Money flowing out of the stock market isn't really money that was being used for economic development. (Short term I mean.) I don't think people are selling factories yet to take the money back home. The recently closed factories were shut in spite of the money flowing into the stock market. It was the baht exchange rate that was killing them.

Hits the SET with force - yes. Hits Thailand with force - ?

What are people in Thailand seeing right now?

Interesting post!

How many Thai own any stocks ? Hmmm...I don't think so many in a, still mainly poor, country like Thailand.

I agree also that in- and (later) out-flowing money wasn't used for economic development. It was pure because Thai stocks were undervalued and the big investors took advantage of that fact. That's the way it works.

I would like to add that it was not -just- the expensive Baht which wiped out a lot of factories; it was also short-sighted management who didn't anticipate to the changing circumstances and the fierce competition from regional countries.

Thailand is a changing economy, away from labor intensive products to IT/electronics- and automotive industries, as well as the service industry; leisure, tourism and wellness.

That, however, doesn't bing more rice (and money) to the Thai poor tables, since more than 50% of the same labor still works in agriculture...

LaoPo

[bingobongo]

flight to quality means t-bills and not emerging markets given the mortgage mess........

Asian currencies tumble in worst week since 1990

Thailand's baht onshore weakened every day to 34.69, taking losses to 1.7 percent. Central bank governor Tarisa Watanagase said on Thursday officials were monitoring the baht, adding Thailand had no immediate plan to lift capital controls on overseas investment that were imposed in December.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archiv...8/19/2003374908

[Naam]

Asian currencies tumble in worst week since 1990

a ridiculous statement from a journalist who obviously lacks information.

[Carmine6]

Asian currencies tumble in worst week since 1990

a ridiculous statement from a journalist who obviously lacks information.

The title implies worst week for currencies but the article says "worst five-day decline in the region's stocks since 1990." Then it further clarifies "The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index dollar-denominated index lost 8 percent this week, the most since September 1990."

So they found a stat that would make a nice headline even though the article is about currencies.

[highdiver]

The money coming our of stock markets (all stock markets not only thailand) was mainly used to hedge the comitments to leverages that supported those stock purchasings in the first place. mainly the yen.

the cary tade in yen has created a rush to hedge in Yen so all those specultors are now running to buy Yen so they can pay back the yen loans they took.

the huge anount of money injected by Japans central bank was intended to meet this demand and avoid the apreciation of the Yen

however the Yen still went up. It just shows how incredible massive the cary tade in Yen was.

the Central banks in Europe and in te US are attemting to clear the credit crunch and the liquidity crunch by injecting Billions in a low rate as to support the economies.

so where did all ths money go.... I belive it went back to the stock markets. the big players once selling of the stocks to gurentee the leverage positions they had before are using the injected cheap money as a leverage attempting to raise the market again hoping that once the market goes up again every one joins in and they can sell and pay back the leverage.

In my view the problem will not go away. as the injection of the money eased the syptoms but not cured the problems.

the financial markets in US and in europe are still facing the same problem.

the desire to make higher yields and performance has made the greedy financial institutions build the subprime credit .

high risk credit was given at subprime mainly for the aquisition of housing and for private consumption.

The credit used has supported the rising realestae prices that supported in return more high risk credit.... and the bubble grew

those that borowed the mony were high risk and they still are. so they can not payback the loan.

the central banks in the west are now facing a very difficult position. if they continue to inject "cheap" money int the system they will depreciate the curency and create inflation. if they dont inject there will be a lot of people who will loose everything.

As for thailand... it will probably remain very stable..

in times of financial crisis there mainly 2 areas that remain calm. energy and food. people need food. and thailand is a food supplier.

[Hampstead]

hampstead - one other question. If the money markets are watching 350 million USD leave thailand each week, why does the Thai baht continue to disproportionately appreciate against the USD? If money is leaving doesn't that mean the baht should weaken?

the baht rates are not wholly due to the fund flows of money into thailand, its mainly within the system

for example, there is close to 7 trillion baht in deposits in the thai banking system(stats by jp morgan, kim eng), so 35 billion baht leaving for the past 3 weeks is only part of the picture of the baht-dollar rate, and within the system we dont know how much dollars are being bought and kept in thailand, or vice versa through other financial instruments like bonds and debts through dollars or thai baht, then you have imports and exports accounts, along with the sovereign wealth account for thailand which stands at over 70 billion dollars.

for example, 3-4 weeks ago when the first amount of money moved out of thailand, the baht-dollar rate movements were less eratic compared to last week where roughly the same amount of money moved out.