Global Correction

[bingobongo]

and there is your bounce off 1406........the trend however is still down

[fletchsmile]

come on fletch dont be so sad just becasue you did not sell the bounce as i stated/warned in my previous post

so did you buy gold, oil, yen and sell the bounce on all bourses (and go short)? if not, you were ridden harder than a bargirl during the high season

regardless the down trend is still in tact......china (shanghai bourse) will experience a nice haircut this year which will acclerate after the olympics are over and the yen carry will continue to unwind

for those of you who do not understand the impact of Jan 30, 2008 to (global) financial markets stick to savings accounts. for those of you who do, get ready

since this is thaivisa, the SET will soon circle the bowl as the economy will continue to skid and the elections are a mess and no resolution is on the immediate horizon

sell bounces and go short

Happy New Year Bingo.

I'll let the facts speak for themselves: Since you predicted the global bust in mid-August, over 80% of my portfolio (mainly long equities) was up by year-end. Why would I want to short, when I'm doing fine on longs that I know and understand?

I'd note the SET was also up during this period. So if you've been short the SET since August, you'll have been losing money if truth be known.

As for the Thai political climate: its slowly resolving itself. It always takes a couple of months here to sort the elections. Anyone having followed the last few elections would see the results - about 80 out of 480 seats still under discussion with the EC - as being not dissimilar to past elections. The fact remains the elections have been held, general economic and political sentiment is improving. Most people I know believe Thailand is now in a better situation than a few months back, i.e better now than at the time of your August prediction...

Edited January 8, 2008 by fletchsmile

[fletchsmile]

Bingo,

I know your a picture's man, so attached is performance of some key equity markets since you called a global correction right at the lowest points in mid-August.

Anyone shorting on your timing call at this point would be out of pocket. The strong performers and hefty gains were in BRIC, and SE Asia.

SET was the one in the middle, as we're in Thailand. The other 3 being US DJ, FTS100 and EuroStoxx50. Even these mature markets were up slightly. So I'd be interested to know the equity markets you shorted in mid-August to make money.

As you know I was an Asia, Thailand and emerging markets fan last year, so was pretty happy not to have taken your advice on shorting these.

Edited January 8, 2008 by fletchsmile

[Naam]

Bingo was right. i had the sh*ttiest return since the 1998 russian crisis. it looks like i have to switch off the pool pump and ask the Old Lady to get a cleaning job with the neighbours. that inspite of the fact that i followed Bingo's advice to shorten whatever i can short. my barber uses clipper #3 for my haircut and our gardener has set the lawnmower to the "shortest" setting

[lannarebirth]

Bingo,

I know your a picture's man, so attached is performance of some key equity markets since you called a global correction right at the lowest points in mid-August.

Anyone shorting on your timing call at this point would be out of pocket. The strong performers and hefty gains were in BRIC, and SE Asia.

SET was the one in the middle, as we're in Thailand. The other 3 being US DJ, FTS100 and EuroStoxx50. Even these mature markets were up slightly. So I'd be interested to know the equity markets you shorted in mid-August to make money.

As you know I was an Asia, Thailand and emerging markets fan last year, so was pretty happy not to have taken your advice on shorting these.

Here's my picture:

[bingobongo]

well 1406 on the S&P fell like a knife thru hot butter, now per my previous post on this thread, (where i said 12500 would be support for the DOW,) when 12500 breaks on the dow, next stop is DOW 12,000

if the DOW bounces off of 12500 (which it did once today 12502 to be exact), do yourself a favor fletchsmile and sell.....the down trend is still in tact

other bourses (including the SET, not even mentioning the THAI election mess) will feel the pain this year.......oh the humanity

do not be bull or bear biased, play the tape given to you

Edited January 9, 2008 by bingobongo

[stumonster]

this was released yesterday

World Economic Situation and Prospects 2008

According to WESP 2008, the world economy is facing serious challenges in sustaining the strong pace of economic growth seen over the past few years. While the baseline forecast is for world economic growth to moderate somewhat in 2008, the risks associated with the bursting of the housing bubble in the United States, the related unfolding credit crisis, the decline of the dollar, large global imbalances and high oil prices are all pointing to the downside.

http://www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/wesp.html

[fletchsmile]

well 1406 on the S&P fell like a knife thru hot butter, now per my previous post on this thread, (where i said 12500 would be support for the DOW,) when 12500 breaks on the dow, next stop is DOW 12,000

if the DOW bounces off of 12500 (which it did once today 12502 to be exact), do yourself a favor fletchsmile and sell.....the down trend is still in tact

other bourses (including the SET, not even mentioning the THAI election mess) will feel the pain this year.......oh the humanity

do not be bull or bear biased, play the tape given to you

Suggestion: Start a new post with which particular topic you're talking about, and relating to 2008. Otherwise you'll just selectively keep picking the days you called heads and ignoring the days that come up tails.

1) Your bearish call for a global bust in August was completely wrong during 2007 in terms of timing. You called the bottom of the equity markets in mid-August and they rose. As demonstrated most equity markets were up between Aug (your call) and Dec 2007. Or perhaps you omitted to mention you were calling 2008 back in Aug 2007

2) S&P: You're post is dated 10/1, i.e today. As you know I'm not a big fan of US investments by any means. But you'll see that on 9 Jan (= last close/ closest to date of your post) the S&P closed above 1,406 up 1.36% at 1,409.13. I can only assume you selectively picked a mid-day point on 9/1 that suited your calls. For something that cut thru a resistance level "like a knife like butter", you are again wrong, it closed above the resistance level.

3) "other bourses will feel the pain this year...." that's what you said last year. It didn't happen. You've yet to highlight even one key bourse that lost money since you predicted in Aug2007.

4) (...including the SET..) You were bearish on Thailand all last year. Result: ING Thai Equity Fund: + 41%, ING Good Governance Fund:+30%, SET up 27%, Aberdeen LTF: +19% Aberdeen Growth: + 16%. Instead you'd rather quote how well you did on the Yen, and selectively pick a period it that suits you.

BTW Well done on the 5% to 9% you probably made on the Yen.

5) In terms of playing tapes, how about listening to the whole tape instead of fast forwarding over the bits you don't want to hear?

BTW2 If you start a thread for 2008, saying there may be some tough times ahead, and people will need to be selective it might give a bit more focus. No point keep trying to justify the incorrect Aug 2007 thread of a global bust, choose another topic and move on. We all get it wrong some times

Edited January 10, 2008 by fletchsmile

[Prakanong]

Goldman Sachs have just come out with a prediction of recession in the USA this year and they join Morgan Stanley and another IB predicting this.

The question for me though is how it will affext Asia and the rest of the world economy - Asia being more inportant for me right now.

It was said if the American economy sneezes the rest of the worl catches cold. Is this true though with the rise of China, India and other developing nations like Vietnam full steam ahead?

We live in interesting times.

[fletchsmile]

Goldman Sachs have just come out with a prediction of recession in the USA this year and they join Morgan Stanley and another IB predicting this.

The question for me though is how it will affext Asia and the rest of the world economy - Asia being more inportant for me right now.

It was said if the American economy sneezes the rest of the worl catches cold. Is this true though with the rise of China, India and other developing nations like Vietnam full steam ahead?

We live in interesting times.

That's the interesting question. US may or may not enter recession. It will slow down global economies. I don't believe it will cause a global bust as OP stated. I also believe there'll be enough steam in other world economies for growth to continue. Asia, BRICs, etc.

While the old saying of the US sneezing and the rest of the world catching a cold, used to be quite a bit of merit. I think that's changing. Time will tell. Personally I think we're moving towards a world where if the US catches a cold, the rest of the world will sneeze, wipe its nose and move on . When that will fully come to pass is another key question...

Edited January 10, 2008 by fletchsmile

[Prakanong]

Goldman Sachs have just come out with a prediction of recession in the USA this year and they join Morgan Stanley and another IB predicting this.

The question for me though is how it will affext Asia and the rest of the world economy - Asia being more inportant for me right now.

It was said if the American economy sneezes the rest of the worl catches cold. Is this true though with the rise of China, India and other developing nations like Vietnam full steam ahead?

We live in interesting times.

That's the interesting question. US may or may not enter recession. It will slow down global economies. I don't believe it will cause a global bust as OP stated. I also believe there'll be enough steam in other world economies for growth to continue. Asia, BRICs, etc.

While the old saying of the US sneezing and the rest of the world catching a cold, used to be quite a bit of merit. I think that's changing. Time will tell. Personally I think we're moving towards a world where if the US catches a cold, the rest of the world will sneeze, wipe its nose and move on

Your view ie world just moving on. was that of my economics Professor on my MBA just this week - Professor David Baily of Birmingham Business School

Its my view too (and hope)

[sonicdragon]

Goldman Sachs have just come out with a prediction of recession in the USA this year and they join Morgan Stanley and another IB predicting this.

The question for me though is how it will affext Asia and the rest of the world economy - Asia being more inportant for me right now.

It was said if the American economy sneezes the rest of the worl catches cold. Is this true though with the rise of China, India and other developing nations like Vietnam full steam ahead?

We live in interesting times.

That's the interesting question. US may or may not enter recession. It will slow down global economies. I don't believe it will cause a global bust as OP stated. I also believe there'll be enough steam in other world economies for growth to continue. Asia, BRICs, etc.

While the old saying of the US sneezing and the rest of the world catching a cold, used to be quite a bit of merit. I think that's changing. Time will tell. Personally I think we're moving towards a world where if the US catches a cold, the rest of the world will sneeze, wipe its nose and move on

Your view ie world just moving on. was that of my economics Professor on my MBA just this week - Professor David Baily of Birmingham Business School

Its my view too (and hope)

I have grave doubts. Economies in asia are very much dependent on exports. Some people argue that the reliance on exports to the US has diminished and for that main reason asia can weather the storm, so to speak, of a US recession. Indeed, when looking at exports of, say Thailand, exports to ASEAN now account for a much larger proportion of exports than 10 years ago. The problem with this argument is that much of these exports are re-exported - to the USA and the other traditional markets (EU, Japan etc). Very little remains in asia as asian consumption - a fact which is borne out by the still very low levels of consumer spending relative to GDP in the region.

If the US econnomy falls off a cliff, as the doomsayers suggest, the implications for asia are dire. If there is a relatively shallow and short US recession, no doubt the effects on asia will be very limited.

[Naam]

No point keep trying to justify the incorrect Aug 2007 thread of a global bust, choose another topic and move on. We all get it wrong some times

you mean Bingo got it wrong Fletch?

[Prakanong]

Goldman Sachs have just come out with a prediction of recession in the USA this year and they join Morgan Stanley and another IB predicting this.

The question for me though is how it will affext Asia and the rest of the world economy - Asia being more inportant for me right now.

It was said if the American economy sneezes the rest of the worl catches cold. Is this true though with the rise of China, India and other developing nations like Vietnam full steam ahead?

We live in interesting times.

That's the interesting question. US may or may not enter recession. It will slow down global economies. I don't believe it will cause a global bust as OP stated. I also believe there'll be enough steam in other world economies for growth to continue. Asia, BRICs, etc.

While the old saying of the US sneezing and the rest of the world catching a cold, used to be quite a bit of merit. I think that's changing. Time will tell. Personally I think we're moving towards a world where if the US catches a cold, the rest of the world will sneeze, wipe its nose and move on

Your view ie world just moving on. was that of my economics Professor on my MBA just this week - Professor David Baily of Birmingham Business School

Its my view too (and hope)

I have grave doubts. Economies in asia are very much dependent on exports. Some people argue that the reliance on exports to the US has diminished and for that main reason asia can weather the storm, so to speak, of a US recession. Indeed, when looking at exports of, say Thailand, exports to ASEAN now account for a much larger proportion of exports than 10 years ago. The problem with this argument is that much of these exports are re-exported - to the USA and the other traditional markets (EU, Japan etc). Very little remains in asia as asian consumption - a fact which is borne out by the still very low levels of consumer spending relative to GDP in the region.

If the US econnomy falls off a cliff, as the doomsayers suggest, the implications for asia are dire. If there is a relatively shallow and short US recession, no doubt the effects on asia will be very limited.

"If" the USA goes into recession ie 6 months of negative GDP growth it will be interesting to see how it pans out.

Europe now trades less with America and mostly with itself (I am trying to remember the flows from Dicken's latest book, "Global Shift")

I think this book has a lot of influence on many peoples thought - as from the title you can see he beleives there is a shift in the global economy to Asia and that it this shift that could protect the region somewhat if America did go into recession - time will tell.

I am planning on doing my dissertation regarding this but looking into a particualr industry.

[fletchsmile]

Your view ie world just moving on. was that of my economics Professor on my MBA just this week - Professor David Baily of Birmingham Business School

Its my view too (and hope)

I have grave doubts. Economies in asia are very much dependent on exports. Some people argue that the reliance on exports to the US has diminished and for that main reason asia can weather the storm, so to speak, of a US recession. Indeed, when looking at exports of, say Thailand, exports to ASEAN now account for a much larger proportion of exports than 10 years ago. The problem with this argument is that much of these exports are re-exported - to the USA and the other traditional markets (EU, Japan etc). Very little remains in asia as asian consumption - a fact which is borne out by the still very low levels of consumer spending relative to GDP in the region.

If the US econnomy falls off a cliff, as the doomsayers suggest, the implications for asia are dire. If there is a relatively shallow and short US recession, no doubt the effects on asia will be very limited.

For me it's about more than exports, and historical economics. In the same way empires have fallen in the past, so will the US. Jump ahead 40 years, and on what basis would the US be so important as it is now? Apart from military strength I can't think of anything. On what fundamentals will it be dominant? Important yes. Dominant like the past no. History only lasts so long. There must inevitably be a path towards that future, and it's already being trod, even tho' people are unsure the exact directions and its speed. Some thoughts:

- formation of GCC in Middle-East on 1 Jan2008. When they eventually move towards monetary union, what will the currency be? Another alternative to the dollar? This will also free up labour and capital flows in the region. How many decades (or perhaps even years) behind will some of the Asian economies be in doing likewise, eg ASEAN less some of the ones like Burma that don't fit anyway. The Euro already paved the way on this one by forming an alternative currency and econmic bloc.

- When was the last time the world saw Asian soverign wealth funds shoring up Western financial or other institutions? China investing in Western banks? Another shift in the balance of power.

- From sheer size/population China and India have the potential to exceed the US in terms of human capital. Russia and Brazil have the resources to help that happen.

- How long can the 300-400mio people in the US sustain domination over several billion worldwide? Technology, knowledge and information is flowing quicker than ever. What's the US advantage aside from history, which we know changes.

- We read now about "recoupling". How far advanced "decoupling" has gone is a matter of debate. The key is that the concept has been established. New concepts bring new ideas and changes.

The world is changing. The main questions are how fast? and to be revealed over the coming months: how much has it changed already?

Edited January 10, 2008 by fletchsmile

[sonicdragon]

Your view ie world just moving on. was that of my economics Professor on my MBA just this week - Professor David Baily of Birmingham Business School

Its my view too (and hope)

I have grave doubts. Economies in asia are very much dependent on exports. Some people argue that the reliance on exports to the US has diminished and for that main reason asia can weather the storm, so to speak, of a US recession. Indeed, when looking at exports of, say Thailand, exports to ASEAN now account for a much larger proportion of exports than 10 years ago. The problem with this argument is that much of these exports are re-exported - to the USA and the other traditional markets (EU, Japan etc). Very little remains in asia as asian consumption - a fact which is borne out by the still very low levels of consumer spending relative to GDP in the region.

If the US econnomy falls off a cliff, as the doomsayers suggest, the implications for asia are dire. If there is a relatively shallow and short US recession, no doubt the effects on asia will be very limited.

For me it's about more than exports, and historical economics. In the same way empires have fallen in the past, so will the US. Jump ahead 40 years, and on what basis would the US be so important as it is now? Apart from military strength I can't think of anything. On what fundamentals will it be dominant? Important yes. Dominant like the past no. History only lasts so long. There must inevitably be a path towards that future. Some thoughts:

- formation of GCC in Middle-East on 1 Jan2008. When they eventually move towards monetary union, what will the currency be? Another alternative to the dollar? This will also free up labour and capital flows in the region. How many decades (or perhaps even years) behind will some of the Asian economies be in doing likewise, eg ASEAN less some of the ones like Burma that don't fit anyway. The Euro already paved the way on this one by forming an alternative currency and econmic bloc.

- When was the last time the world saw Asian soverign wealth funds shoring up Western financial or other institutions? China investing in Western banks? Another shift in the balance of power.

- From sheer size/population China and India have the potential to exceed the US in terms of human capital. Russia and Brazil have the resources to help that happen.

- How long can the 300-400mio people in the US sustain domination over several billion worldwide? Technology, knowledge and information is flowing quicker than ever. What's the US advantage aside from history, which we know changes.

- We read now about "recoupling". How far advanced "decoupling" has gone is a matter of debate. The key is that the concept has been established. New concepts bring new ideas and changes.

The world is changing. The main questions are how fast? and to be revealed over the coming months: how much has it changed already?

Most of the above points will have great relevance in the future, but not much in this current cycle. Sure, there will be less impact that in previous cycles, but there will be a large impact nonetheless. Anyway, as to the specific points:

1. Formation of GCC - largely irrelevant for trade flows if the US enters recession this year, which is what we are talking about here.

2. Asian sovereign funds are buying what they perceive as cheap assets. Asian countries also know that it is in their interests for the US not to implode. It's very natural for CIC, Temasek etc to be buying US assets - the surprise is that there hasn't been more of it. The cronic shortage of savings in the US has been supplied by excess savings from asia. Those savings are now seeking a higher rate of return.

3. China and India - again, not really relevent for the currenct cycle, from a domestic consumption perspective. Thailand's meager exports to China are mostly re-exported, and we all know who is China's No1 trading partner. In the future, sure, but not now. The further development of china will be very interesting. It's notable that there are very few home grown brands. Basically, China is renting it's capital and labour to other countries, which is a very different road of development to that undertaken in other countries that have emerged from devastation - where and what is China's Sony, Samsung or Siemens ?

4. US domination can probably be sustained longer than we think/expect. That's my guess. certainly longer than is relevant for the recession we are about to enter. The US has deeper, more efficient and rubust capital markets than any other country and that is simpy not going to change soon, though it will eventually.

5. Coupling/recoupling/decoupling. It will definitely be interesting to see what happens in the coming recession, if it matrialises, which seems likely. Clearly the world is a different and bigger place than the last time there was a significant global recession. Things are now closely connected whereas before they were disparate. Globalisation has changed everything.

[bingobongo]

lets focus on the SET as this is Thailand, the SET took a nice 20 point dump to close at 800 today, next support is around 780, and after that the next support isnt until 750 and 725, given the election has been a farce and credit markets are in turmoil, get ready........with bounces along the way.........but the trend is down

Edited January 10, 2008 by bingobongo

[Naam]

lets focus on the SET as this is Thailand

Bingo hit (as usual) the nail on the head!

reason: all of us expats living in Thailand had a lobotomy, put all our money into the SET, mortgaged the ranch, sold our wives and daughters into slavery and bought thai stocks.

next please

[Naam]

let's focus on the opening posting of this thread:

bingobongo 2007-08-17 20:25:54

The global bust is coming and not all the liquidity, denial, and som tham in the world will prevent it..

[Prakanong]

World Bank report in Straits Times today is saying that the developing countries growth will help keep the world economy from faring too badly if America has a recession

Says they would not be affected as they once were by a USA slowdown.

[fletchsmile]

lets focus on the SET as this is Thailand, the SET took a nice 20 point dump to close at 800 today, next support is around 780, and after that the next support isnt until 750 and 725, given the election has been a farce and credit markets are in turmoil, get ready........with bounces along the way.........but the trend is down

Haha. Selective hindsight from you again. Same old: call the time of day when your broken clock is correct. Markets must have heard you, as your downward call seems to have spurred an upward rise at today's open.

Downward trend? We all know you can pick stats to show almost anything you want, and no doubt you've picked a period to "prove" your point.

Let's look at the charts again Circles below are where you forecast a global bust. Unless you're stood on your head, it looks upwards to me

Edited January 11, 2008 by fletchsmile

[sonicdragon]

World Bank report in Straits Times today is saying that the developing countries growth will help keep the world economy from faring too badly if America has a recession

Says they would not be affected as they once were by a USA slowdown.

Three facts that I consider important in the decoupling debate are: 1) that US GDP as a share of global GDP (at around 25-27%) has not changed all that much since we last had a deep recession in the early 90s; 2) that US GDP is heavily skewed towards consumer spending; and 3) that the levels of consumer spending in recent years have been enabled by huge borrowings from foreigners (the current account deficit), cheap imports particularly from China, and a credit and property bubble that is now deflating.

While it is true that developing countries are beginning to shift their savings into consumption, and consequently the effects should be less than in previous cyles I really don't think that there is enough of a consumer society in developing markets that will take up the slack from the american consumer.

If the Fed manages to engineer a soft landing through aggressive easing the stage will be set for even bigger problems down the road.

[bingobongo]

one by one the dominos will begin to fall.........

Goldman Says Japan Recession Risk at `Danger Level'

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=asia

[Naam]

Goldman Says...

what Goldman says is as good as GOLD! but different views exist on "Goldman Sucks", e.g.:

Goldman still has on the market some $13 billion of almost $37 billion in bonds backed by subprime loans or second mortgages that it created while he [Paulson] was chief executive officer. Those bonds have an average delinquency rate of almost 22 percent, higher than the average of other subprime bonds from the period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Goldman, the most profitable investment bank, was one of 14 primary dealers of U.S. Treasuries who contributed to a three- year binge as $1 trillion of subprime mortgages were packaged and sold to investors. The value of Goldman's outstanding subprime bonds trails Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s $33 billion, out of $106.8 billion created during Paulson's years at Goldman, and Morgan Stanley's $28.8 billion, out of $82.5 billion.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

next Bingo!

[sonicdragon]

One big difference between GS and other originators of CDOs is that they have been big buyers of protection in the credit default swap market, thereby insulating themselves from a lot of the problems that have been plaguing their peers.

[Prakanong]

World Bank report in Straits Times today is saying that the developing countries growth will help keep the world economy from faring too badly if America has a recession

Says they would not be affected as they once were by a USA slowdown.

Three facts that I consider important in the decoupling debate are: 1) that US GDP as a share of global GDP (at around 25-27%) has not changed all that much since we last had a deep recession in the early 90s; 2) that US GDP is heavily skewed towards consumer spending; and 3) that the levels of consumer spending in recent years have been enabled by huge borrowings from foreigners (the current account deficit), cheap imports particularly from China, and a credit and property bubble that is now deflating.

While it is true that developing countries are beginning to shift their savings into consumption, and consequently the effects should be less than in previous cyles I really don't think that there is enough of a consumer society in developing markets that will take up the slack from the american consumer.

If the Fed manages to engineer a soft landing through aggressive easing the stage will be set for even bigger problems down the road.

Funny you mention consumer spending in developing countries. I have on my desk right now the prospectus for the "UBS Asian consumption Fund" through DBS I am considering putting a monthly sum in?

They say Asian Consumption is taking off but they would say that wouldn't they

Any views?

[sonicdragon]

World Bank report in Straits Times today is saying that the developing countries growth will help keep the world economy from faring too badly if America has a recession

Says they would not be affected as they once were by a USA slowdown.

Three facts that I consider important in the decoupling debate are: 1) that US GDP as a share of global GDP (at around 25-27%) has not changed all that much since we last had a deep recession in the early 90s; 2) that US GDP is heavily skewed towards consumer spending; and 3) that the levels of consumer spending in recent years have been enabled by huge borrowings from foreigners (the current account deficit), cheap imports particularly from China, and a credit and property bubble that is now deflating.

While it is true that developing countries are beginning to shift their savings into consumption, and consequently the effects should be less than in previous cyles I really don't think that there is enough of a consumer society in developing markets that will take up the slack from the american consumer.

If the Fed manages to engineer a soft landing through aggressive easing the stage will be set for even bigger problems down the road.

Funny you mention consumer spending in developing countries. I have on my desk right now the prospectus for the "UBS Asian consumption Fund" through DBS I am considering putting a monthly sum in?

They say Asian Consumption is taking off but they would say that wouldn't they

Any views?

My view is that domestic consumption will be a big theme in asia going forward, from an economics standpoint. From an investment standpoint I would be a little wary since there are relatively few publicly traded stocks and the ones out there are consequently bid quite high - and on top of that many investors have switched to domestic plays in the face of a US slowdown. A fund manager like UBS should have good access to IPOs which will surely be coming. But then the next question is one of timing...with a long term view maybe now is OK, but I have the feeling that valuations could be coming off quite a lot in the months ahead.`

[bingobongo]

good luck on the SET......the trend is down......and the table below does not help either......so one last time before this BEAR hibernates.....sell on bounces as SET supports are as follows:

780 (50dma)

749 (100dma)

725 (200dma) if this breaks, forget about it..........

SET may bounce off these supports but trend is still down unless by some miracle a competent gvt is formed....which will not happen this year

Edited January 12, 2008 by bingobongo

[jumnien]

It's always darkest before the dawn!

[Prakanong]

World Bank report in Straits Times today is saying that the developing countries growth will help keep the world economy from faring too badly if America has a recession

Says they would not be affected as they once were by a USA slowdown.

Three facts that I consider important in the decoupling debate are: 1) that US GDP as a share of global GDP (at around 25-27%) has not changed all that much since we last had a deep recession in the early 90s; 2) that US GDP is heavily skewed towards consumer spending; and 3) that the levels of consumer spending in recent years have been enabled by huge borrowings from foreigners (the current account deficit), cheap imports particularly from China, and a credit and property bubble that is now deflating.

While it is true that developing countries are beginning to shift their savings into consumption, and consequently the effects should be less than in previous cyles I really don't think that there is enough of a consumer society in developing markets that will take up the slack from the american consumer.

If the Fed manages to engineer a soft landing through aggressive easing the stage will be set for even bigger problems down the road.

Funny you mention consumer spending in developing countries. I have on my desk right now the prospectus for the "UBS Asian consumption Fund" through DBS I am considering putting a monthly sum in?

They say Asian Consumption is taking off but they would say that wouldn't they

Any views?

My view is that domestic consumption will be a big theme in asia going forward, from an economics standpoint. From an investment standpoint I would be a little wary since there are relatively few publicly traded stocks and the ones out there are consequently bid quite high - and on top of that many investors have switched to domestic plays in the face of a US slowdown. A fund manager like UBS should have good access to IPOs which will surely be coming. But then the next question is one of timing...with a long term view maybe now is OK, but I have the feeling that valuations could be coming off quite a lot in the months ahead.`

Thanks for the input - I want to start another regular savings plan and the Asian Consumption is one I am considering.

The other main one I have in mind is a DBS fund covering Brazil, India and China.

And I am still looking for a pure Vietnam fund.