Am I Dreaming... Baht At 34.632!

[LaoPo]

Anyway, here's my shot at non specific financial themed rhetoric. Possibly time to strap on your seatbelts.

http://memory. loc.gov/ammem/ today/aug24. html

8/24/1857 is 3*50 Yr Banking Crisis Cycle

Don't know what you mean since the link doesn't seem to work...?

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

Try this.

Edited August 24, 2007 by lannarebirth

[VegasVic]

Try this.

Great link lannaebirth! I love history and am always open to discussing cycles, however as you well know we are currently in a short term liquidity-credit crisis not a banking crisis (the money center and investment banks in the U.S. all have very strong balance sheets currently). The folks who were really into cycles were the Mayans, and as you are likely aware the Mayan calandar ends abruptly on December 21st 2012, this cycle is far more ominous than that banking cycle Given the ongoing geopolitical concerns (especially Iran), this current liquidity crisis we are experiencing is just a tick on a bear!

[lannarebirth]

Try this.

Great link lannaebirth! I love history and am always open to discussing cycles, however as you well know we are currently in a short term liquidity-credit crisis not a banking crisis (the money center and investment banks in the U.S. all have very strong balance sheets currently). The folks who were really into cycles were the Mayans, and as you are likely aware the Mayan calandar ends abruptly on December 21st 2012, this cycle is far more ominous than that banking cycle Given the ongoing geopolitical concerns (especially Iran), this current liquidity crisis we are experiencing is just a tick on a bear!

I block out news. It creates bias. We're making a 4.5 year cycle low in here. Doesn't much matter what they say the reason is.

If you like cycles there's the "Rich Mans Panic of 1907" you can Google. 50 and 100 year match there. Anyway, while I think we go down some next week, that was a pretty nice bottom on the 16th, which could very well hold awhile. Though that would make it one of the shallowest corrections in history, if it does.

Edited August 24, 2007 by lannarebirth

[VegasVic]

Try this.

Great link lannaebirth! I love history and am always open to discussing cycles, however as you well know we are currently in a short term liquidity-credit crisis not a banking crisis (the money center and investment banks in the U.S. all have very strong balance sheets currently). The folks who were really into cycles were the Mayans, and as you are likely aware the Mayan calandar ends abruptly on December 21st 2012, this cycle is far more ominous than that banking cycle Given the ongoing geopolitical concerns (especially Iran), this current liquidity crisis we are experiencing is just a tick on a bear!

I block out news. It creates bias. We're making a 4.5 year cycle low in here. Doesn't much matter what they say the reason is.

If you like cycles there's the "Rich Mans Panic of 1907" you can Google. 50 and 100 year match there. Anyway, while I think we go down some next week, that was a pretty nice bottom on the 16th, which could very well hold awhile. Though that would make it one of the shallowest corrections in history, if it does.

The opportunities that last weeks market correction gave us was like having Christmas, New Years and your birthday all in one week! I sold off some of my larger (long term) equity positions back in June and went to a substantial cash position, and last week I broke the piggy bank and bought TXU, EMC, Agilysis and Countrywide. I still have about 1/2 of the cash I raised back in June and am waiting to see what happens in September and if there is indeed another shoe that has yet to drop and we have another correction in October then I will put a good portion of the remaining cash back to work then. By the way I look forward to checking out " the rich mans panic of 1907". The markets just closed here in the U.S. and it was a very strong close, the S&P, NASDAQ and DOW all closed at the HOD, its hard to know what kind of news will be coming out next week but based on the strong close today I wouldn't be betting on a down week next week. Have a good weekend!

[joeuk1]

I was not realy paying too much attention to the markets today all my markets finsihed on there highs for the week . Two sets of figures that came out that gave our markets a boost durable goods were expected plus 1 they came out plus 5.8 and i think a set of figures came out new home sales were expected minus 2.8 and they came out plus 2.8 ( not sure about the house figs ) .

The move from last Thurs my main market dropped 7 percent to the low and at tonights close i think was up 8 1/2 percent from the weeks low . Market rallied on good quality buying and lots of short covering the market is still heavy with short positions and i am very bullish of my markets going into the last qtr .

Dollar was weaker cable was trading about 2 bucks ........and Gold in the last couple of days rallied off its 650s lows and was i think 665 for spot when i left office and came home .

Good luck to anyone that has open positions running into the last qtr and year end .

JB

[tracer5050]

let hope the Balt keeps getting stronger against the dollar. Good for bussiness

[LaoPo]

Try this.

Great link lannaebirth! I love history and am always open to discussing cycles, however as you well know we are currently in a short term liquidity-credit crisis not a banking crisis (the money center and investment banks in the U.S. all have very strong balance sheets currently). The folks who were really into cycles were the Mayans, and as you are likely aware the Mayan calandar ends abruptly on December 21st 2012, this cycle is far more ominous than that banking cycle Given the ongoing geopolitical concerns (especially Iran), this current liquidity crisis we are experiencing is just a tick on a bear!

I block out news. It creates bias. We're making a 4.5 year cycle low in here. Doesn't much matter what they say the reason is.

If you like cycles there's the "Rich Mans Panic of 1907" you can Google. 50 and 100 year match there. Anyway, while I think we go down some next week, that was a pretty nice bottom on the 16th, which could very well hold awhile. Though that would make it one of the shallowest corrections in history, if it does.

The opportunities that last weeks market correction gave us was like having Christmas, New Years and your birthday all in one week! I sold off some of my larger (long term) equity positions back in June and went to a substantial cash position, and last week I broke the piggy bank and bought TXU, EMC, Agilysis and Countrywide. I still have about 1/2 of the cash I raised back in June and am waiting to see what happens in September and if there is indeed another shoe that has yet to drop and we have another correction in October then I will put a good portion of the remaining cash back to work then. By the way I look forward to checking out " the rich mans panic of 1907". The markets just closed here in the U.S. and it was a very strong close, the S&P, NASDAQ and DOW all closed at the HOD,

...its hard to know what kind of news will be coming out next week but based on the strong close today I wouldn't be betting on a down week next week. Have a good weekend!

Maybe you're served earlier than 'next week'...

"shares and options volatility ticked up on Friday on rumors that government-sponsored investment funds from China and Singapore may be eyeing the retailer's stock, U.S. and U.K. market sources said."

We're talking $ 8 Billion of shares in Wal-Mart here, although still rumors.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews....C1-ArticlePage2

Quite interesting and could give the US markets another boost.

Note:

We're going off topic though and I'm sorry for my contribution to that.

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Back to the Baht:

1 year Charts:

US $ - Baht

Euro - Baht

Pound Sterling - Baht

Looks like the Baht is slipping slowly but steady although it looks more firm, understandable, versus the US $ in comparison to the Euro and Sterling.

LaoPo

[VegasVic]

Try this.

Great link lannaebirth! I love history and am always open to discussing cycles, however as you well know we are currently in a short term liquidity-credit crisis not a banking crisis (the money center and investment banks in the U.S. all have very strong balance sheets currently). The folks who were really into cycles were the Mayans, and as you are likely aware the Mayan calandar ends abruptly on December 21st 2012, this cycle is far more ominous than that banking cycle Given the ongoing geopolitical concerns (especially Iran), this current liquidity crisis we are experiencing is just a tick on a bear!

I block out news. It creates bias. We're making a 4.5 year cycle low in here. Doesn't much matter what they say the reason is.

If you like cycles there's the "Rich Mans Panic of 1907" you can Google. 50 and 100 year match there. Anyway, while I think we go down some next week, that was a pretty nice bottom on the 16th, which could very well hold awhile. Though that would make it one of the shallowest corrections in history, if it does.

The opportunities that last weeks market correction gave us was like having Christmas, New Years and your birthday all in one week! I sold off some of my larger (long term) equity positions back in June and went to a substantial cash position, and last week I broke the piggy bank and bought TXU, EMC, Agilysis and Countrywide. I still have about 1/2 of the cash I raised back in June and am waiting to see what happens in September and if there is indeed another shoe that has yet to drop and we have another correction in October then I will put a good portion of the remaining cash back to work then. By the way I look forward to checking out " the rich mans panic of 1907". The markets just closed here in the U.S. and it was a very strong close, the S&P, NASDAQ and DOW all closed at the HOD,

...its hard to know what kind of news will be coming out next week but based on the strong close today I wouldn't be betting on a down week next week. Have a good weekend!

Maybe you're served earlier than 'next week'...

"shares and options volatility ticked up on Friday on rumors that government-sponsored investment funds from China and Singapore may be eyeing the retailer's stock, U.S. and U.K. market sources said."

We're talking $ 8 Billion of shares in Wal-Mart here, although still rumors.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews....C1-ArticlePage2

Quite interesting and could give the US markets another boost.

Note:

We're going off topic though and I'm sorry for my contribution to that.

LaoPo

That good ole weak dollar is the gift that just keeps on giving I think that as long as the dollar remains in this weak trough area(1.34-1.38 vs. the Euro and 1.97-2.05 vs. the Pound) and U.S. corporate profits remain strong (especially the multinationals) that its a no brainer for the Chinese, Japanese, Europeans, Canadians, ect. to be making substantial investments in U.S. equities. Given the fact that a rather large short position still exists in the U.S. markets, if the proverbial "other shoe" never drops then U.S. equities could have one heck of a ride for the remainder of the year. While we are on the subject of rumors, I'll add that something big is cooking at Lehman Bros. and I was told that we should find out next week just exactly what it is. Now back on topic, while I don't see much movement in the baht/dollar for the rest of the year, I still believe that in the later half of 2008 the baht could touch that magic 40/dollar once again

[lannarebirth]

I'll add that something big is cooking at Lehman Bros. and I was told that we should find out next week just exactly what it is.

That's interesting Vic. I have a strong unidirectional move I'm looking at for this week. Perhaps from some news that will appear before the open on Monday. I have a direction in mind, but I'm flexible.

[lannarebirth]

Try this.

Great link lannaebirth! I love history and am always open to discussing cycles, however as you well know we are currently in a short term liquidity-credit crisis not a banking crisis (the money center and investment banks in the U.S. all have very strong balance sheets currently). The folks who were really into cycles were the Mayans, and as you are likely aware the Mayan calandar ends abruptly on December 21st 2012, this cycle is far more ominous than that banking cycle Given the ongoing geopolitical concerns (especially Iran), this current liquidity crisis we are experiencing is just a tick on a bear!

I block out news. It creates bias. We're making a 4.5 year cycle low in here. Doesn't much matter what they say the reason is.

If you like cycles there's the "Rich Mans Panic of 1907" you can Google. 50 and 100 year match there. Anyway, while I think we go down some next week, that was a pretty nice bottom on the 16th, which could very well hold awhile. Though that would make it one of the shallowest corrections in history, if it does.

Hey! Pretty good call. Looks like we're looking at the LTCM roadmap from 1998. Good Luck everyone.

[Solosiam]

Think long term mate - problem with most people they think short term. This is all cyclic.

But historically the Thai Baht was 25 to the dollar for decades, who's to say it won't cycle that way instead of back to the 80 year high of 40 or so baht to the dollar.

[rainman]

I exchanged some US dollars today from my foreign currency account at Bangkok Bank. They gave me a rate of 35.15. when the TT rate today is only 34.25. I guess it's because the funds are in a foreign currency account rather than getting exchanged into Thai Baht via TT.

[j_cheung]

Try this.

Great link lannaebirth! I love history and am always open to discussing cycles, however as you well know we are currently in a short term liquidity-credit crisis not a banking crisis (the money center and investment banks in the U.S. all have very strong balance sheets currently). The folks who were really into cycles were the Mayans, and as you are likely aware the Mayan calandar ends abruptly on December 21st 2012, this cycle is far more ominous than that banking cycle Given the ongoing geopolitical concerns (especially Iran), this current liquidity crisis we are experiencing is just a tick on a bear!

If you're into that Elliot wave thingy, here's the lowdown: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cycle (note the 3.5 years reflects on the mundane inventory supply or Kitchin cycle whereas the quasi-apocalyptic 30 to 50 year cycle is the Kondradiff)

And if that's not doomsday enough, get a load of this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

[lannarebirth]

Try this.

Great link lannaebirth! I love history and am always open to discussing cycles, however as you well know we are currently in a short term liquidity-credit crisis not a banking crisis (the money center and investment banks in the U.S. all have very strong balance sheets currently). The folks who were really into cycles were the Mayans, and as you are likely aware the Mayan calandar ends abruptly on December 21st 2012, this cycle is far more ominous than that banking cycle Given the ongoing geopolitical concerns (especially Iran), this current liquidity crisis we are experiencing is just a tick on a bear!

If you're into that Elliot wave thingy, here's the lowdown: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_cycle (note the 3.5 years reflects on the mundane inventory supply or Kitchin cycle whereas the quasi-apocalyptic 30 to 50 year cycle is the Kondradiff)

And if that's not doomsday enough, get a load of this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity

Dozens of cycles are occuring at any given time. It is only when shorter term cycles become synchronous with longer term cycles that great movement takes place. Much of the time they work in opposition to each other. If you're interested in cycles, Google "Hurst Cycles". There is a course available which I highly recommend. Anyway, this is the 4.5 year business cycle we seem to be dealing with here. It's lows will coincide with 18 month, 40 week, 20 week, 10 week, 5 week, 2.5 week cycles. Low may have come on the 16th, but we'll no for sure in the next 2 weeks.

Edited August 29, 2007 by lannarebirth

[VegasVic]

Think long term mate - problem with most people they think short term. This is all cyclic.

But historically the Thai Baht was 25 to the dollar for decades, who's to say it won't cycle that way instead of back to the 80 year high of 40 or so baht to the dollar.

The baht was 25/dollar since the 1960's because it was tied to the U.S. dollar, after the asian economic crisis in 1997 the baht was unteathered to the dollar and sunk to 56.4/dollar early in 1998, although since that time the baht has been averaging in the low 40's/dollar until a little over a year ago when this rapid appreciation began. Going back 80 years would not make much sense, because before the mid 1960's when the Americans arrived and started setting up its military bases and production facilities, Thailand was for the most part a backward, rural agricultural country that was catapulted into the 20th century by the Americans!

[Solosiam]

Think long term mate - problem with most people they think short term. This is all cyclic.

But historically the Thai Baht was 25 to the dollar for decades, who's to say it won't cycle that way instead of back to the 80 year high of 40 or so baht to the dollar.

The baht was 25/dollar since the 1960's because it was tied to the U.S. dollar, after the asian economic crisis in 1997 the baht was unteathered to the dollar and sunk to 56.4/dollar early in 1998, although since that time the baht has been averaging in the low 40's/dollar until a little over a year ago when this rapid appreciation began. Going back 80 years would not make much sense, because before the mid 1960's when the Americans arrived and started setting up its military bases and production facilities, Thailand was for the most part a backward, rural agricultural country that was catapulted into the 20th century by the Americans!

lol, and of course there was ABSOLUTELY NO REASON for the dollar to be tied to the baht at 25 to the dollar, someone just guessed a number and kept it at that for 30-40 years with no problems.

Catapulted into the 20th Century by the Americans, thats hillarious. love it, thanks.

[LaoPo]

Going back 80 years would not make much sense, because before the mid 1960's when the Americans arrived and started setting up its military bases and production facilities, Thailand was for the most part a backward, rural agricultural country that was catapulted into the 20th century by the Americans!

It's a relieve to realize that Thailand has a history and a population with dignity that goes back thousands of years, unlike the almighty...

LaoPo

[Naam]

But historically the Thai Baht was 25 to the dollar for decades...

incorrect statement. till 1985 the exchange rate was 20 Bath / 1 US-Dollar. don't know though when the peg started.

[VegasVic]

Going back 80 years would not make much sense, because before the mid 1960's when the Americans arrived and started setting up its military bases and production facilities, Thailand was for the most part a backward, rural agricultural country that was catapulted into the 20th century by the Americans!

It's a relieve to realize that Thailand has a history and a population with dignity that goes back thousands of years, unlike the almighty...

LaoPo

Thanks lao, it is indeed a relief (not relieve) to realize that a country could have once been a great civilization, but in modern times it has fallen into a backward isolationist agrarian civilization as Thailand clearly was back in the mid 1950's before the first infusion of $ from the U.S. in 1956. You know you don't even have to make time to read the post WW2 history of Thailand, just simply ask any thai who is over 60 years old and they can recount what life was like before the Americans came Since you do seem to like reading though, please feel free to educate yourself on this topic!

[VegasVic]

But historically the Thai Baht was 25 to the dollar for decades...

incorrect statement. till 1985 the exchange rate was 20 Bath / 1 US-Dollar. don't know though when the peg started.

I believe that the baht/dollar peg started in 1956 and you are correct that the peg was 20baht/dollar until the mid 1980's when it was changed to 25baht/dollar.

[JRinger]

But historically the Thai Baht was 25 to the dollar for decades...

incorrect statement. till 1985 the exchange rate was 20 Bath / 1 US-Dollar. don't know though when the peg started.

I believe that the baht/dollar peg started in 1956 and you are correct that the peg was 20baht/dollar until the mid 1980's when it was changed to 25baht/dollar.

1970-1971: 25 baht for one U.S. dollar.

Edited September 2, 2007 by JRinger

[Naam]

But historically the Thai Baht was 25 to the dollar for decades...

incorrect statement. till 1985 the exchange rate was 20 Bath / 1 US-Dollar. don't know though when the peg started.

I believe that the baht/dollar peg started in 1956 and you are correct that the peg was 20baht/dollar until the mid 1980's when it was changed to 25baht/dollar.

1970-1971: 25 baht for one U.S. dollar.

my first visit to Thailand was november 1973. from that date till end of 1985 the rate was 20 Baht for 1 USD.