An expert assessment suggests that the end of Vladimir Putin’s rule is more likely to come through a gradual and personal transition rather than a sudden overthrow, followed by a period of internal power struggle within Russia’s elite.

According to Russia analyst John Kennedy of the RAND Europe think tank, President Putin’s age is a key factor reshaping expectations about how his leadership may conclude. At 73, Putin has reached the average lifespan of previous Russian leaders, raising questions about how long he can realistically remain in power.

Kennedy argues that despite mounting pressure from the war in Ukraine, Putin is unlikely to be removed through a coup or mass uprising in the near term. Power remains tightly concentrated among a small, loyal inner circle of long-time associates, a trend that has intensified since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Russia’s economic strain and the heavy human cost of the war — estimated to be close to one million casualties — have not yet translated into large-scale public unrest. The absence of widespread protest following the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny is cited as evidence that organised resistance remains weak.

The most likely scenario, Kennedy says, is that Putin dies in office, triggering a behind-the-scenes struggle among competing factions close to the Kremlin. This could lead to a period of political instability as elites vie for control.

While considered unlikely, the analyst does not rule out the possibility of assassination. He suggests that any such threat may be more likely to emerge from Russia’s poorer regions, where resentment toward Moscow and the war effort is stronger, rather than from within the Kremlin itself.

Kennedy also notes Putin’s heavy security and reduced public appearances, which may reflect both health concerns and growing paranoia. He warns Western governments to prepare for multiple transition scenarios, including elite infighting, unrest, or a military-backed shift in power.

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Key Takeaways

• Analysts see a gradual end to Putin’s rule as most likely.

• A sudden coup or mass uprising appears improbable for now.

• A future power struggle among elites could destabilise Russia.

Expert says Putin most likely to die in office

And would the war on Ukraine end? I doubt it. Too much face to lose.

1 hour ago, unblocktheplanet said:

And would the war on Ukraine end? I doubt it. Too much face to lose.

Whoever succeeded Putin could blame it all on Putin.